文/GGV紀源資本管理合夥人Glenn Solomen
關於Glenn Solomon：Glenn於2006年加入紀源資本，目前擔任管理合夥人。他主導了紀源資本對Pandora (NYSE: P)、 Zendesk (NYSE: ZEN)、 Square (NYSE: SQ)、 Successfactors (NYSE: SFSF/被 SAP收購)、Isilon(NASDAQ: ISLN/被EMC收購)、Quinstreet (NASDAQ: QNST)、Nimble Storage(NYSE:NMBL)、 Airbnb、 AlienVault、BitSight Technologies、Conviva、 DOMO、 Gridstore、 HashiCorp、NS1、Opendoor和 Restless Bandit、 Slack、 Synack的投資, 並幫助前七家公司成功上市。Glenn關注企業軟件和服務（SaaS）、雲基礎建設和移動技術領域。他連續多年入選福布斯最佳創投人榜。
引言：
微軟、谷歌、IBM、阿里、騰訊都投入巨資在雲計算，未來，雲會變得無處不在，所有公司都在變成軟件公司。這次天價收購將被視為標杆，甚至影響整個行業。Salesforce用65億美元（Mulesoft2018年營收的16倍）的代價，將其收入囊中，真的是聰明之舉嗎？會對整個基礎軟件行業有哪些影響？
近期，Mulesoft公司同意被Salesforce公司以65億美元的價格收購，這一新聞標誌著在企業技術世界中一個重大的轉折點。為什麼這場收購如此重要？以下是我的一些想法：
1
所有互聯網巨頭都在佈局雲計算
雲計算領域的競爭是我們能看到的科技領域中最激烈的戰鬥。AWS如今在經營收入上超過了20億美元，增長率超過40%，盈利能力非常強，它的運營利潤率超過了25%。與此同時，微軟的Azure增長得更快，AWS，谷歌都在投入巨資，IBM，甲骨文，阿里巴巴和騰訊也緊隨其後。他們都意識到雲計算大有可為。Salesforce成立於十年前，儘管它們有特許經營權，但是由於成立得實在太早，導致它們無法在公共雲計算領域中享有一席。
Salesforce專注於搭建應用程序雲（銷售、市場營銷、服務等等）來儘可能地吸引企業客戶。雖然它們取得了成功，但是從長期來看，Salesforce容易受到公共雲平臺的衝擊。這些公共雲平臺正迅速吸收企業數據和商業邏輯，日益成為大企業戰略的核心。在多雲和混合雲迅速發展之時，Salesforce需要找到保持其防禦的方法。Mulesoft是一個非常合適的選擇。Mulesoft將幫助Salesforce在任何地方訪問數據、分析數據並且重寫入本地系統。這樣能使Salesforce成為客戶企業的中心，而不會因為雲供應商試圖搶奪中心位置而旁落邊緣地位。
2
雲變得無處不在，所有公司都在變成軟件公司
Salesforce是一個商業應用程序公司。他們向商業用戶出售產品。Mulesoft賣給了IT部門，即基礎架構部門。Mulesoft融合的最終結果往往有利於終端用戶，但Mulesoft是為技術人員搭建的技術產品。Salesforce進軍基礎機構領域是一個大膽的舉措，我相信這表明科技領域正在發生變化。沒錯，商業用戶是傳統價值所在，但是現在開發人員。像DevOps，SepOps和其他技術團隊對於公司的業務戰略越來越關鍵了。所有公司都在變成軟件公司，雲變得無處不在，應用程序和基礎架構之間的界限也將變得愈發模糊。
3
一個新巨頭的戰略佈局
Salesforce公司預計2018年營收約120億美元，市值約有一千億美元。它不再是一個不起眼的軟件公司了，它已經變成了一個巨頭。在這樣的情境下，65億美元並不算多。考慮到AWS目前市值已達到了3000至4000億美元，Salesforce必須好好思考如何保持市場競爭力，特別是現在數據和工作都已經轉移到了公共雲上。這次收購就像當年扎克伯格收購instagram一樣——雖然當時看起來很昂貴，但是長遠來看是聰明之舉。
4
估值超過營收16倍，但不貴
Mulesoft在2017年營收約為3億美元，並且其在2018年有望實現約4億美元的營收。65億美元的價格意味著Mulesoft公司2018年收入的16倍。正如我在上文中所說的，Mulesoft對Salesforce來說具有很強的戰略意義，但這次的收購數額之大在軟件領域還是具有標杆性的。
5
這次收購將促使對基礎軟件公司價值的重估
我認為這次交易將會迫使風險投資公司和投資者重新考慮並且很可能會對許多基礎軟件公司進行重新評估。雲計算的競爭正變得越來越有趣。這些競爭者非常認真，他們準備了大量的資金，是想玩真的。那些在雲計算領域成功的創業公司會享受到像Mulesoft公司相同的待遇。但如果給雲供應商造成了阻礙，他們會被擊垮。
以下為英文版：
Mulesoft hadagreed to a $6.5Bn acquisition by Salesforce marks an intriguing inflectionpoint in the world of enterprise technology. Here are my thoughts on why this transaction is so important.
The Continued Inexorable Force of Multi-Cloud Computing.
As I’vedetailed previously, the cloud computing battle is now the fiercest,highest-stakes battle we’ve ever seen in technology. AWS is now running at over$20Bn in run rate revenue, growing over 40% and extremely profitable, withoperating margins north of 25%. Meanwhile Microsoft Azure is growing evenfaster that AWS, Google is investing heavily, as are IBM, Oracle, Alibaba andTencent. They all realize the stakes are very high. Salesforce was born about10 years too early and, despite having a remarkable franchise, doesn’t have anatural play in public cloud computing as a result. Salesforce has insteadfocused on building out application clouds (sales, marketing, service, etc) tocapture as many business users in enterprises as possible. Despite its success,Salesforce is vulnerable in the long term to being out-maneuvered by the publiccloud platforms, who are rapidly sucking in enterprise data and business logic,and becoming more central to large enterprise’s strategy with every passingday. As multi-cloud and hybrid cloud prevail, Salesforce needed to find a wayto keep its defenses up. Mulesoft is a very smart answer. Mulesoft will helpSalesforce access data wherever it lives, analyze and re-write it to nativesystems, thus keeping Salesforce in the center of the universe for itscustomers rather than risk being relegated to the bleacher seats as cloudvendors attempt to grab center stage.
The Merging of Application Software and Infrastructure.
Salesforce isthe ultimate business application company. They sell to business users.Mulesoft sells to IT, hence infrastructure. Sure, the end result of Mulesoft’sintegrations often-times benefit end users, but Mulesoft is a technology stackbuilt for technologists. Salesforce making a foray into infrastructurerepresents a bold move, and I believe shows that the game is changing intechnology. Yes, business users are where the value resides, but nowdevelopers, DevOps, SecOps and other groups within technology are becoming moreand more key to companies’ business strategies. As all companies becomesoftware companies and the cloud becomes ubiquitous, the demarcation betweenapplication and infrastructure is going to continue to blur.
The Size of the Prize.
Salesforce isprojected to do about $12Bn in revenue for ’18 and has a market value rightabout $100Bn. This isn’t your grandmother’s cute enterprise software company.Its a juggernaut. In that context, $6.5Bn isn’t much. Given that AWS on its own is likely worth$300-400Bn right now, Salesforce has to keep thinking boldly to stay in thegame, especially as data and workloads move to the public cloud. Thisacquisition may end up being Benioff’s version of Zuckerberg’s Instagramstratagem – it looks expensive at the time, but is brilliant from a strategicperspective longer term.
The Valuation.
Mulesoft didabout $300M in revenue in ’17 and was on track to do roughly $400M in revenuein ’18. So the $6.5Bn price represents 16x ’18 revenue. As discussed above,Mulesoft is highly strategic to Salesforce but this sets a benchmark rarelyseen before in software.
What This Means for the Rest of Tech.
I think this deal will force VCs and investors to re-thinkand possibly re-rate many infrastructure software companies. The cloudcomputing wars keep getting more interesting. The players are very serious,have extremely deep pockets and are playing for keeps. Those startups thatnavigate the waters successfully will enjoy similarly great outcomes toMulesoft. But, others will get crushed if they get in the way of the cloudvendors.
閱讀更多 GGV紀源資本 的文章
關鍵字: Salesforce 英文版 微軟
