聽力原文如下
<code>1.I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
我今天要談的是能源與氣候，這可能有點出人意料
2.And that might seem a bit surprising because my full-time work at the foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds, about the things that we need to invent and deliver
我今天要談的是能源與氣候，這可能有點出人意料 畢竟我在基金會的全職工作主要是關於疾病疫苗和農業種苗的 那些的確是需要我們發明傳播，以改善世上最貧窮的二十億人的生活的東西
3.to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
那些的確是需要我們發明傳播，以改善世上最貧窮的二十億人的生活的東西
4.But energy and climate are extremely important to these people, in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.
但事實上，能源和氣候對這些人極為重要，事實上，比對地球上其他人更加重要 但事實上，能源和氣候對這些人極為重要，事實上，比對地球上其他人更加重要
5.The climate getting worse, means that many years their crops won't grow.
氣候的持續惡化意味著他們的莊稼將多年無法生長，意味著洪澇或乾旱
6.There will be too much rain, not enough rain.
氣候的持續惡化意味著他們的莊稼將多年無法生長，意味著洪澇或乾旱
7.Things will change in ways that their fragile environment simply can't support.
這些變化將令他們脆弱的環境無法承受 這些變化將令他們脆弱的環境無法承受
8.And that leads to starvation. It leads to uncertainty. It leads to unrest.
這將導致饑荒，導致動盪，導致社會騷亂
9.So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.
所以，氣候變化將給他們帶來嚴重後果，同時，能源價格也對他們至關重要
10.Also, the price of energy is very important to them.
所以，氣候變化將給他們帶來嚴重後果，同時，能源價格也對他們至關重要
11.In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of, to reduce poverty, by far, you would pick energy.
事實上，如果只能降低一樣東西的價格以減少貧困，你一定會首選能源價格 事實上，如果只能降低一樣東西的價格以減少貧困，你一定會首選能源價格
12.Now, the price of energy has come down over time.
能源價格隨著人類歷史進程逐漸下降，先進文明是建立在先進能源的基礎上的
13.Really, advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.
能源價格隨著人類歷史進程逐漸下降，先進文明是建立在先進能源的基礎上的
14.The coal revolution fueled the industrial revolution, and, even in the 1900's we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,
當年的煤炭革命推進了工業革命 早在二十世紀初,我們就迎來了電價的快速下跌,這就是我們能夠享受冰箱空調的原因
15.and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning, we can make modern materials and do so many things.
早在二十世紀初,我們就迎來了電價的快速下跌,這就是我們能夠享受冰箱空調的原因 我們由此可以擁有各種現代化的事物，能夠做各種事情
16.And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.
得益於電力，我們能在一個富裕的世界裡過著美妙的生活
17.But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap -- we need to meet a new constraint, and that constraint has to do with CO2.
但是，當我們進一步降低電價的時候，比如再使其便宜兩倍 我們就有了一個新的限制，這個限制與二氧化碳有關 我們就有了一個新的限制，這個限制與二氧化碳有關
18.CO2 is warming the planet, and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.
二氧化碳正在使全球變暖，而計算二氧化碳排放的公式其實非常簡單明瞭 二氧化碳正在使全球變暖，而計算二氧化碳排放的公式其實非常簡單明瞭
19.If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted, that leads to a temperature increase, and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects.
當前二氧化碳巨大的排放量將導致溫度上升 當前二氧化碳巨大的排放量將導致溫度上升 溫度的升高將引起一系列非常嚴重的後果
20.The effects on the weather and, perhaps worse, the indirect effects, in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,
比如對天氣的直接影響，或對生態系統的間接影響，生態系統無法應對劇烈變化的結果就是生態系統的全面崩潰 比如對天氣的直接影響，或對生態系統的間接影響，生態系統無法應對劇烈變化的結果就是生態系統的全面崩潰
21.and so you get ecosystem collapses.
比如對天氣的直接影響，或對生態系統的間接影響，生態系統無法應對劇烈變化的結果就是生態系統的全面崩潰
22.Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be and where the positive feedbacks are,
二氧化碳排放增加和溫度升高究竟成怎樣的關係，兩者間的正反饋效應為何？ 二氧化碳排放增加和溫度升高究竟成怎樣的關係，兩者間的正反饋效應為何？ 二氧化碳排放增加和溫度升高究竟成怎樣的關係，兩者間的正反饋效應為何？
23.there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.
這中間有一些不確定因素，但不多
24.And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be, but they will be extremely bad.
至於全球變暖的具體負面影響有多嚴重，這無法完全確定，但肯定極其嚴重 至於全球變暖的具體負面影響有多嚴重，這無法完全確定，但肯定極其嚴重
25.I asked the top scientists on this several times, do we really have to get down to near zero?
我為此多次請教過頂尖的科學家們：我們真的一定要將二氧化碳排放降到零嗎？ 我為此多次請教過頂尖的科學家們：我們真的一定要將二氧化碳排放降到零嗎？
26.Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
減少到一半或四分之一不行嗎？
27.And the answer is that, until we get near to zero, the temperature will continue to rise.
他們的回答是，除非我們降到零，否則氣溫將持續上升，那將是一個巨大的挑戰 他們的回答是，除非我們降到零，否則氣溫將持續上升，那將是一個巨大的挑戰
28.And so that's a big challenge.
他們的回答是，除非我們降到零，否則氣溫將持續上升，那將是一個巨大的挑戰
29.It's very different than saying we're a 12 ft high truck trying to get under a 10 ft bridge, and we can just sort of squeeze under.
這不同於讓一輛12英尺高的卡車通過限高10英尺的橋，只要想辦法擠過去即可 這不同於讓一輛12英尺高的卡車通過限高10英尺的橋，只要想辦法擠過去即可
30.This is something that has to get to zero.
二氧化碳的排放是要徹底降到零為止
31.Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year, over 26 billion tons.
當前我們每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，總量超過260億噸 當前我們每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，總量超過260億噸
32.For each American, it's about 20 tons.
美國人約排放量約20噸，貧窮國家人均不到一噸，全球人均排放量約為5噸
33.For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.
美國人約排放量約20噸，貧窮國家人均不到一噸，全球人均排放量約為5噸
34.It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.
美國人約排放量約20噸，貧窮國家人均不到一噸，全球人均排放量約為5噸
35.And, somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero.
無論如何，我們都要做出改變，直至把這個數字降到零 無論如何，我們都要做出改變，直至把這個數字降到零
36.It's been constantly going up.
這個數字現在還在繼續上升中，只有經濟波動才稍稍抑制其上升的勢頭
37.It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all, so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling, and falling all the way to zero.
這個數字現在還在繼續上升中，只有經濟波動才稍稍抑制其上升的勢頭 我們不但要扭轉其迅速上升的勢頭，還要讓它下降，並且一路降到零 我們不但要扭轉其迅速上升的勢頭，還要讓它下降，並且一路降到零
38.This equation has four factors.
這個二氧化碳的公式有四個因素，四者相乘
39.A little bit of multiplication.
這個二氧化碳的公式有四個因素，四者相乘
40.So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero, and that's going to be based on the number of people, the services each person's using on average,
等式左面是二氧化碳排放量，我們的目標是讓它降到零 二氧化碳排放＝人口總數 X 人均使用的服務量 X 每單位服務平均耗用能源量 X 每單位能源的二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排放＝人口總數 X 人均使用的服務量 X 每單位服務平均耗用能源量 X 每單位能源的二氧化碳排放
41.the energy on average for each service, and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.
二氧化碳排放＝人口總數 X 人均使用的服務量 X 每單位服務平均耗用能源量 X 每單位能源的二氧化碳排放 二氧化碳排放＝人口總數 X 人均使用的服務量 X 每單位服務平均耗用能源量 X 每單位能源的二氧化碳排放
42.So, let's look at each one of these and see how we can get this down to zero.
下面讓我們逐個來看各個因子，看看怎樣才能將等式最終降為零 下面讓我們逐個來看各個因子，看看怎樣才能將等式最終降為零
43.Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.
顯然，我們需要至少一個因子非常接近於零，這是簡單的高中代數 (老美高中才學這個？)
44.Now that's back from high school algebra, but let's take a look.
顯然，我們需要至少一個因子非常接近於零，這是簡單的高中代數 (老美高中才學這個？)? 我們來看一下，首先是人口
45.First we've got population.
我們來看一下，首先是人口
46.Now, the world today has 6.8 billion people.
目前世界上有68億人，這將繼續增長到約90億人
47.That's headed up to about nine billion.
目前世界上有68億人，這將繼續增長到約90億人
48.Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,
如果我們在新疫苗開發、醫療服務、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的話 如果我們在新疫苗開發、醫療服務、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的話 這個數字可能可以減少10％到15％，這樣的話綜合增長率約為1.3
49.but there we see an increase of about 1.3.
這個數字可能可以減少10％到15％，這樣的話綜合增長率約為1.3
50.The second factor is the services we use.
第二個因子是我們使用的服務
51.This encompasses everything, the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
這包括所有東西：我們吃的食物，穿的衣服，電視，暖氣，都是些非常美好的事物 這包括所有東西：我們吃的食物，穿的衣服，電視，暖氣，都是些非常美好的事物
52.These are very good things, and getting rid of poverty means providing these services to almost everyone on the planet.
這包括所有東西：我們吃的食物，穿的衣服，電視，暖氣，都是些非常美好的事物 擺脫貧窮就意味著向地球上每個人提供這些服務，這個因子進一步提高才是好事 擺脫貧窮就意味著向地球上每個人提供這些服務，這個因子進一步提高才是好事
53.And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
擺脫貧窮就意味著向地球上每個人提供這些服務，這個因子進一步提高才是好事
54.In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion, we probably could cut back and use less, but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,
在發達國家裡，最富裕的十億人，或許可以控制消費，減少一些服務享受 在發達國家裡，最富裕的十億人，或許可以控制消費，減少一些服務享受 但總體而言，這個數字將會逐年上升，最終人均享受的服務，將翻一番還不止
55.and so, over all, that will more than double the services delivered per person.
但總體而言，這個數字將會逐年上升，最終人均享受的服務，將翻一番還不止 但總體而言，這個數字將會逐年上升，最終人均享受的服務，將翻一番還不止
56.Here we have a very basic service.
在這一地區，我們享有的服務非常基礎：你家裡有沒有寫作業的照明燈光？
57.Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework, and, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out and reading their school work under the street lamps.
在這一地區，我們享有的服務非常基礎：你家裡有沒有寫作業的照明燈光？ 這些孩子就沒有，所以他們要到外面去，坐在路燈下面寫作業 這些孩子就沒有，所以他們要到外面去，坐在路燈下面寫作業
58.Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service, here, finally we have some good news.
下面一個因素是效率，也就是每項服務所消耗的能源 在這一項上我們總算有了些好消息：這一因子不會持續上升
59.We have something that's not going up.
在這一項上我們總算有了些好消息：這一因子不會持續上升
60.Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting, through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings.
通過各種發明和新的照明方法，通過新技術的汽車，新的建築方式 通過各種發明和新的照明方法，通過新技術的汽車，新的建築方式
61.there are a lot of services where you can bring the energy for that service down quite substantially, some individual services even, bring it down by 90 percent.
我們可以將很多服務所消耗的能源大大降低，個別服務，甚至可以降低百分之九十 我們可以將很多服務所消耗的能源大大降低，個別服務，甚至可以降低百分之九十 我們可以將很多服務所消耗的能源大大降低，個別服務，甚至可以降低百分之九十
62.There are other services like how we make fertilizer, or how we do air transport, where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.
但另外一些服務，比如化肥生產，航空運輸等，可以提升的空間較為有限 但另外一些服務，比如化肥生產，航空運輸等，可以提升的空間較為有限 但另外一些服務，比如化肥生產，航空運輸等，可以提升的空間較為有限
63.And so, overall here, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.
所以，綜合來看，對這一項的樂觀估計為：我們可能能實現三到六倍的下降 所以，綜合來看，對這一項的樂觀估計為：我們可能能實現三到六倍的下降
64.But for these first three factors now, we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons, and that just won't cut it.
就已討論三個因素來說，我們最多將排放量從260噸降到130億噸，這還遠遠不夠 就已討論三個因素來說，我們最多將排放量從260噸降到130億噸，這還遠遠不夠 就已討論三個因素來說，我們最多將排放量從260噸降到130億噸，這還遠遠不夠
65.So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one -- and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.
最後，我們來看第四個因素，也是最關鍵的一個 最後，我們來看第四個因素，也是最關鍵的一個 也就是每單位能源所排放的二氧化碳
66.And so the question is, can you actually get that to zero?
我們的問題是，這一因素真的能降到零嗎？
67.If you burn coal, no.
燒煤肯定不行，燒氣也不行
68.If you burn natural gas, no.
燒煤肯定不行，燒氣也不行
69.Almost every way we make electricity today, except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.
我們現有的所有發電方式都會產生二氧化碳，除了發展中的的可再生能源與核能 我們現有的所有發電方式都會產生二氧化碳，除了發展中的的可再生能源與核能
70.And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale, is create a new system.
所以，我們需要在全球範圍內建立一個新系統，我們需要能源奇蹟 所以，我們需要在全球範圍內建立一個新系統，我們需要能源奇蹟
71.And so, we need energy miracles.
所以，我們需要在全球範圍內建立一個新系統，我們需要能源奇蹟
72.Now, when I use the term miracle, I don't mean something that's impossible.
雖然我用了“奇蹟”一詞，但這並不是說這件事是不可能的
73.The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.
微處理器是奇蹟，個人電腦是奇蹟，互聯網及其應用也是奇蹟
74.The internet and its services are a miracle.
微處理器是奇蹟，個人電腦是奇蹟，互聯網及其應用也是奇蹟
75.So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.
也就是說，在座的各位已經目睹甚至參與了很多奇蹟的發生
76.Usually, we don't have a deadline, where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.
一般來說，我們不會對奇蹟的發生設置最後期限 一般來說，我們不會對奇蹟的發生設置最後期限
77.Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.
通常，你只是袖手旁觀，有些奇蹟就發生了，有些則沒有
78.This is a case where we actually have to drive full speed and get a miracle in a pretty tight time line.
但在低碳減排這件事上，我們必須全力以赴去推動，從而在最終期限前實現這一奇蹟 但在低碳減排這件事上，我們必須全力以赴去推動，從而在最終期限前實現這一奇蹟
79.Now, I thought, how could I really capture this?
我想，我怎樣才能更好地呈現這一問題呢？有沒有一種自然生動的表達？
80.Is there some kind of natural illustration, some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?
我想，我怎樣才能更好地呈現這一問題呢？有沒有一種自然生動的表達？ 有沒有某種演示能激發人們的想象力？
81.I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos, and somehow people enjoyed that.
我回想起一年前我帶了些蚊子到這裡來，大家好像還蠻喜歡的 我回想起一年前我帶了些蚊子到這裡來，大家好像還蠻喜歡的
82.(Laughter) It really got them involved in the idea of, you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.
(蓋茨在上一次TED演講上放了一些蚊子以引起與會者對瘧疾的關注) 蚊子讓那次的與會者真正地意識到：世界上有些人是與蚊子一起生活的 蚊子讓那次的與會者真正地意識到：世界上有些人是與蚊子一起生活的
83.So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.
所以，今天既然在談能源，我想到帶來這個：螢火蟲
84.I decided that releasing fireflies would be my contribution to the environment here this year.
我決定，放飛螢火蟲將是我今年對這裡環境做出的貢獻 我決定，放飛螢火蟲將是我今年對這裡環境做出的貢獻
85.So here we have some natural fireflies.
這是幾隻天然的螢火蟲，據說不咬人，說不定它們都懶得出那個罐子
86.I'm told they don't bite, in fact, they might not even leave that jar.
這是幾隻天然的螢火蟲，據說不咬人，說不定它們都懶得出那個罐子
87.(Laughter) Now, there's all sorts gimmicky solutions like that one, but they don't really add up to much.
這是幾隻天然的螢火蟲，據說不咬人，說不定它們都懶得出那個罐子 像螢火蟲這樣的解決能源問題有奇思妙想有很多，但實際作用相當有限 像螢火蟲這樣的解決能源問題有奇思妙想有很多，但實際作用相當有限
88.We need solutions, either one or several, that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability, and, although there's many directions people are seeking,
我們需要的是解決方案，一個或很多個都行，極具規模性和可靠性的解決方案 我們需要的是解決方案，一個或很多個都行，極具規模性和可靠性的解決方案 我們需要的是解決方案，一個或很多個都行，極具規模性和可靠性的解決方案 儘管人們在多方探索，我覺得目前只有五個方向可以有大作為
89.I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.
儘管人們在多方探索，我覺得目前只有五個方向可以有大作為
90.I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.
我沒有包括潮汐、地熱、聚變和生物燃料等，那些都將有所貢獻
91.Those may make some contribution, and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better, but my key point here is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
我沒有包括潮汐、地熱、聚變和生物燃料等，那些都將有所貢獻 如果它們的表現能超過我的預期，當然更好 但關鍵的是，我們在這五種方式上必須全部大力投入 但關鍵的是，我們在這五種方式上必須全部大力投入
92.and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting, because they all have significant challenges.
不能因為他們看似艱鉅而放棄，因為它們都包含著嚴峻的挑戰 不能因為他們看似艱鉅而放棄，因為它們都包含著嚴峻的挑戰
93.Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels, either burning coal or burning natural gas.
首先來看一下化石燃料，燒煤或者燒氣 首先來看一下化石燃料，燒煤或者燒氣
94.What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not, and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,
我們需要做的，說來簡單，其實不然 需要採取的措施是把所有燃燒產生的二氧化碳，通過煙囪收集，然後加壓、液化,儲存
95.pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere, and hope it stays there.
需要採取的措施是把所有燃燒產生的二氧化碳，通過煙囪收集，然後加壓、液化、儲存，並保證不洩漏 需要採取的措施是把所有燃燒產生的二氧化碳，通過煙囪收集，然後加壓、液化、儲存，並保證不洩漏
96.Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level, but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,
當前的試驗已經能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百會十分的困難 當前的試驗已經能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百會十分的困難
97.and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard, but the toughest one here is this long term issue.
並且在哪裡儲存那麼大量的二氧化碳也容易引起爭議 最困難的是這是個長期問題
98.Who's going to be sure?
誰能保證它呢？
99.Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?
這些廢料體積十億倍於其它核廢料等廢品，誰能保證長期安全？ 這些廢料體積十億倍於其它核廢料等廢品，誰能保證長期安全？
100.This is a lot of volume.
這個二氧化碳的量非常大，所以會十分困難
101.So that's a tough one.
這個二氧化碳的量非常大，所以會十分困難
102.Next, would be nuclear.
下一個，核能，同樣有三個大問題
103.It also has three big problems.
下一個，核能，同樣有三個大問題
104.Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high.
它的成本，尤其是在高度管控的國家，非常高
105.The issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong, that, even though you have these human operators, that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
安全問題，保證一切有條不紊 即使有人工操作 即使核燃料不會被用作武器
106.And then what do you do with the waste?
還有核廢棄物要怎麼處理的問題
107.And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.
雖然量並不大，但有很多令人顧慮的地方
108.People need to feel good about it.
好的解決方式必須讓人們感到安心
109.So three very tough problems that might be solvable, and so, should be worked on.
這是三個困難但可能可以解決的問題 所以需要繼續努力
110.The last three of the five, I've grouped together.
五種能源的最後三個，我會放在一起來講
111.These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.
這是人們通常稱為可再生能源的三種能源
112.And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel -- they have some disadvantages.
事實上，它們雖然不需要燃料 但也有不足之處
113.One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies is dramatically less than a power plant.
首先是這些技術所收集到的能源的密度，要遠遠小於電廠 首先是這些技術所收集到的能源的密度，要遠遠小於電廠
114.This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.
這是能源農業，其規模都是平方公里級的 比常規的發電廠要大幾千倍
115.Also, these are intermittent sources.
還有，這些能源是間歇性的
116.The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day, and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
太陽不是一整天都有，也不是每天都有 同樣，風也不是一直在吹
117.And so, if you depend on these sources, you have to have some way of getting the energy during those time periods that it's not available.
如果完全依賴這些來源 你還得有其它渠道來獲取能源，以度過間歇期 你還得有其它渠道來獲取能源，以度過間歇期
118.So, we've got big cost challenges here.
因此，我們面臨巨大的成本問題
119.We have transmission challenges.
還有傳輸方面的挑戰
120.For example, say this energy source is outside your country, you not only need the technology, but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.
比如說，某個能源來源在國外 你不僅需要能源技術 還要應對能源不在國內的相關風險
121.And, finally, this storage problem.
最後，是儲存的問題
122.And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at all the types of batteries that get made, for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything,
為了讓這個問題具體化，我仔細研究了所有現有的電池 為了讓這個問題具體化，我仔細研究了所有現有的電池 車用的，電腦用的，手機的，手電筒的，所有的東西上用的電池
123.and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses, and what I found is that all the batteries we make now could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.
把其存儲電量與世界每日消耗電能比較 我發現我們現在製造的所有電池 只能儲存不到10分鐘的所有能源
124.And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here, something that's going to be a factor of a hundred better than the approaches we have now.
所以，實際上，我們需要一個重大的突破 需要一個比現在的技術好一百倍的解決方案 需要一個比現在的技術好一百倍的解決方案
125.It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.
這並不是不可能的，但也不會很容易
126.Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.
這樣，我們可以用間歇性能源 提供20%-30%所需的能量
127.If you're counting on it for 100 percent, you need an incredible miracle battery.
但如果你希望100%地依賴它 你需要一個非常高效的奇蹟電池
128.Now, how we're going to go forward on this: what's the right approach?
那麼，我們怎麼進行下去呢？正確的方法在哪裡？
129.Is it a Manhattan project? What's the thing that can get us there?
這會是一個曼哈頓計劃嗎？我們怎麼才能到達彼岸？
130.Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.
我們需要很多公司來共同努力，幾百家公司
131.In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.
對五種方法中的每一種，我們都需要至少100人的團隊
132.And a lot of them, you'll look at and say they're crazy. That's good.
裡面的很多人，你會覺得他們很瘋狂，這就對了。
133.And, I think, here in the TED group, we have many people who are already pursuing this.
我認為，在TED團隊裡 已經有很多人開始致力於此
134.Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar that has some great solar thermal technologies.
比爾格羅斯有好幾家公司，其中一個叫eSolar，擁有非常棒的太陽能發熱技術 比爾格羅斯有好幾家公司，其中一個叫eSolar，擁有非常棒的太陽能發熱技術
135.Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities, and I'm trying to help back that.
維諾德科斯拉投資了幾十家公司 他們的工作非常棒，並提出很有趣的可能性 我也計劃支持他們的項目
136.Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.
其實納珊米赫沃爾德和我已經在支持一家公司 也許有點讓人吃驚，但這個公司是核能方向的
137.There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.
在核能方面雖然近年有些小創新， 像模具化，液體使用等等
138.And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago, so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.
但其實創新在這個行業已經停止有一段時間了 所以現在出現一些好點子不是什麼太奇怪的事情
139.The idea of Terrapower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium, the one percent, which is the U235, we decided, let's burn the 99 percent, the U238.
Terrapower的想法是：不去燒常規的鈾U235 Terrapower的想法是：不去燒常規的鈾U235 而是燒剩下的99%，即U238
140.It is kind of a crazy idea.
這是個有些瘋狂的想法，但其實，人們已經討論了很長時間
141.In fact, people had talked about it for a long time, but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not, and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers
這是個有些瘋狂的想法，但其實，人們已經討論了很長時間 但一直無法很好地模擬出這是否可行 有了現代超級計算機的不斷升級
142.that now you can simulate and see that, yes, with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.
我們現在能做這個模擬，而且可以預見， 只要用對材料，這方案是可行的
143.And, because you're burning that 99 percent, you have greatly improved cost profile.
而且，因為我們燒的是以前丟棄的99%核廢料 成本可以極大地降低
144.You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel all the leftover waste from today's reactors.
你實際上是把廢料變作燃料 再也不用擔心該怎樣處理現有所有核反應堆的廢料，這是個很好的消息
145.So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
再也不用擔心該怎樣處理現有所有核反應堆的廢料，這是個很好的消息
146.It breathes this uranium as it goes along. So it's kind of like a candle.
這種技術就像蠟燭一樣,逐漸燒盡鈾廢料
147.You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.
過程就如這根柱子所示,通常被稱為浪潮反應堆
148.In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.
燃料的問題解決了
149.I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.
這是肯塔基州的一個廢料場
150.This is the left over, the 99 percent, where they've taken out the part they burn now, so it's called depleted uranium.
這就是那些廢料,那99% 這就是U235已耗盡的燃料 被稱作耗盡的鈾
151.That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.
這些可以為全美國供電數百年
152.And, simply by filtering sea water in an inexpensive process, you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.
另外，僅僅是通過低成本的海水過濾程序 得到的燃料就足以供應地球下半輩子使用
153.So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead, but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas that we need to move forward.
你看, 前面還會有很多挑戰 但這只是數百種方法中的一個例子 需要我們繼續推進
154.So let's think, how should we measure ourselves?
想一想，我們要如何衡量我們的成就
155.What should our report card look like?
我們的成績單應該打多少分？
156.Well, let's go out to where we really need to get, and then look at the intermediate.
先來看一下我們的最終目標，再倒推來看我們的中期目標 先來看一下我們的最終目標，再倒推來看我們的中期目標
157.For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.
已經有很多人在談到2050年前減碳80%
158.That really is very important, that we get there.
這真的非常重要，我們必須完成這個目標
159.And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries, still some agriculture.
而剩下那20%應是貧窮國家的份額 比如一些農業國家
160.Hopefully, we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.
但願，我們到時已經清理了伐木業和水泥業
161.So, to get to that 80 percent, the developed countries, including countries like China, will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.
所以，要達到這80% 發達國家，以及中國這些國家 需要共同改變它們的發電方式
162.So, the other grade is, are we deploying this zero-emission technology, have we deployed it in all the developed countries and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere.
另外一級是，我們是否部署了零排放技術 我們是否在所有發達國家裡都採用了該項技術 並且在向其他地區推廣的過程中
163.That's super important.
這點非常重要
164.That's a key element of making that report card.
這是交出優秀答卷的關鍵因素
165.So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?
從2050年往回推，我們2020年的成績應該是怎樣呢？
166.Well, again, it should have the two elements.
嗯，一樣會有兩個部分
167.We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions.
我們應該仔細審查那些衡量效率的標準以開始減少排放
168.The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2, and, therefore, the less the temperature.
我們排放的越少，二氧化碳總量就越少 溫度也就越低
169.But in some ways, the grade we get there, doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions, is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,
但從某個角度來說，我們在2020年取得的成績 做一些有所減排但並非大量減排的事 僅僅等同於,或低輕於另一件事情的重要性
170.which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.
那就是帶來關鍵突破的那些創新
171.These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed, and we can measure that in terms of companies, pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.
我們需要全速達成這些技術突破 我們可以用參與的公司的數目, 試驗項目，或是調控政策的變化 來衡量
172.There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.
關於這個話題有許多很好的書
173.The Al Gore book, "Our Choice"
比如，戈爾的《我們的選擇》
174.and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."
大衛麥基的《不再熾熱的可持續能源》
175.They really go through it and create a framework that this can be discussed broadly, because we need broad backing for this.
他們用心研究, 並且構建了一個框架 便於對該問題的廣泛討論 因為我們需要對這一問題的廣泛支持
176.There's a lot that has to come together.
需要多方大力協作
177.So this is a wish.
這是一個願望
178.It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.
我們發明這項技術是個非常具體非常現實的願望
179.If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years, I could pick who's president, I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,
如果我能為下個50年許一個願望 我可以選擇誰來當總統 或者選擇一個疫苗，那是我熱愛的事業
180.or I could pick that this thing that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented, this is the wish I would pick.
或者選擇能源這件事 發明出能將能源價格減半並且零排放的技術 我肯定會選擇能源
181.This is the one with the greatest impact.
這將是影響最大的一個
182.If we don't get this wish, the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible, between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich,
如果我們沒法實現這個願望 考慮短期目標和長期目標的人們之間會有巨大分歧 美國與中國，窮國和富國之間, 會有巨大分歧
183.and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.
而二十億人最窮的人中大多數的生活會極大惡化
184.So, what do we have to do?
那麼我們必須做什麼？
185.What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?
我懇求你們參與推動的到底是什麼？
186.We need to go for more research funding.
我們應該增加研究資助
187.When countries get together in places like Copenhagen, they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
在像哥本哈根這樣的會議上 各國不應該只討論二氧化碳減排日程表
188.They should discuss this innovation agenda, and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending on these innovative approaches.
也應該討論創新的日程表 對這些創新方法的投入之低 絕對會讓你震驚
189.We do need the market incentives, CO2 tax, cap and trade, something that gets that price signal out there.
我們確實需要一些市場激勵，二氧化碳稅費，限額和交易 用這些東西來發出價格信號
190.We need to get the message out.
我們需要把信息傳出去
191.We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue, including the steps that the government takes.
我們應該讓這一對話更加理性，更加易於理解 包括政府所採取的措施
192.This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.
這是一個重要的願望，並且我覺得這是一個可以實現的願望
193.Thank you.
謝謝
194.(Applause) Thank you.
謝謝 謝謝
195.Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
主持人：謝謝
196.(Applause) Thank you. Just so I understand more about Terrapower, right -- I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?
謝謝 謝謝，我對Terrapower更瞭解了 首先，你能大概說下這個投資會是多大規模嗎？
197.Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer, hire all the great scientists, which we've done, that's only tens of millions,
比爾蓋茨：如果只是買超級計算機, 做出軟件 僱傭優秀的科學家，這些我們已經做到了 大概只用幾千萬
198.and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor to make sure our materials work properly, then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.
我們甚至去一個俄羅斯的反應堆測試了我們的材料 看看它是否能夠正常工作 加起來也不過花費幾個億
199.The tough thing is building the pilot reactor, finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location that will actually build the first one of these.
最難的是建造試驗反應堆 籌措幾十億，找到管理者，選定地點 這樣才能建起第一座這樣的核電站
200.Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised, then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density,
當你建起第一座後，如果它確實像說的那樣有用， 那一切就都簡單了，因為它的經濟性、能源密度
201.are so different than nuclear as we know it.
與我們所熟悉的核能完全不同
202.CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel,
主持人：那麼，是不是說，這需要往地下建造 一個用這種廢棄鈾建成的垂直核燃料柱
203.of this sort of spent uranium, and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?
一個用這種廢棄鈾建成的垂直核燃料柱 然後反應從上往下漸進？
204.BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor, so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong, that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out.
蓋茨：沒錯。現在的核反應堆, 你得不停的重新加燃料 所以有很多人為因素和控制可能出錯 你需要打開反應堆, 把核燃料搬進搬出，這些都可能出錯，一點兒不保險
205.That's not good.
你需要打開反應堆, 把核燃料搬進搬出，這些都可能出錯，一點兒不保險
206.So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in -- just think of it as a log -- put it down and not have those same complexities.
所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就夠使用60年 所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就夠使用60年 把它放下，沒有那些複雜的後果
207.And it just sits there and burns for the sixty years, and then it's done.
放那兒燒個六十年，然後沒了
208.CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.
主持人：那樣的核電站本身就是自身廢棄物的處理站
209.BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste, you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach -- then you can actually take that,
蓋茨：沒錯。這個過程產生的垃圾 你可以放在那兒，用這種辦法只產生很少的廢料 你也可以把它放到另外一個核電站裡燒掉
210.and put it into another one and burn that.
你也可以把它放到另外一個核電站裡燒掉
211.And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today, that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactor.
我們可以從處理現有核電站產生的垃圾開始 那些現在在冷卻池或者反應堆旁的幹罐裡的廢物
212.That's our fuel to begin with.
這是我們開始時的燃料
213.So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors is actually what gets fed into ours, and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically
這樣，當前那些反應堆自身的麻煩，卻成為我們的原料，同時還大大減少了廢物 這樣，當前那些反應堆自身的麻煩，卻成為我們的原料，同時還大大減少了廢物 這樣，當前那些反應堆自身的麻煩，卻成為我們的原料，同時還大大減少了廢物
214.as you're going through this process.
這樣，當前那些反應堆自身的麻煩，卻成為我們的原料，同時還大大減少了廢物
215.CA: But in your talking to different people around the world about the possibilities here, where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?
主持人：你和其他地方的人的談話中 談到這些可能性的時候 哪些人對實施這件事興趣最大？
216.BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place, and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called nuclear,
蓋茨：我們還沒有選定一個特定的地方 由於到處都有關於核問題的保密規定
217.so we've got a lot of interest, that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China.
很多人表示了興趣 俄羅斯，印度，中國的公司都表現了濃厚的興趣
218.I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here, talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.
我也曾經在這裡找過能源部長 談論如何將這件事融入能源日程表
219.So I'm optimistic. You know the French and Japanese have done some work.
總地來說我很樂觀，同時，法國和日本已經做了一些工作
220.This is a variant on something that has been done.
這是已有成就的一個變體
221.It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor, and a lot of countries have built them, so anybody who's done a fast reactor, is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.
這是一個重要的進步，但像一個快速反應堆 很多國家已經修建了這樣的反應堆 只要你已經有了快速反應堆，就可能成為第一個核垃圾重利用站的建設者
222.CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?
主持人：就你看來，實現這一計劃的時間跨度和可能性如何？ 主持人：就你看來，實現這一計劃的時間跨度和可能性如何？
223.BG: Well, we need, for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things that's very cheap, we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.
蓋茨：建一個這種大規模的電站，並且成本要非常低 蓋茨：建一個這種大規模的電站，並且成本要非常低 我們有20年時間來發明，再有20年時間來執行
224.That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet.
這大致也是我們的環境模型所計算出的最終期限 這大致也是我們的環境模型所計算出的最終期限
225.And, you know, Terrapower, if things go well, which is wishing for a lot, could easily meet that.
如果Terrapower一切順利的話，當然那樣會很不容易，可以很容易地滿足這一要求 如果Terrapower一切順利的話，當然那樣會很不容易，可以很容易地滿足這一要求
226.And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies, we need it to be hundreds, who, likewise, if their science goes well, if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,
目前還有數十家公司在從事這一事業 我們需要幾百家 如果它們科研進展順利 如果他們的試驗電站的籌資順利
227.that they can compete for this.
他們都可以競爭這項任務
228.And it's best if multiple succeed, because then you could use a mix of these things.
如果能夠多方成功那是最好 因為這樣就可以同時利用多種方式
229.We certainly need one to succeed.
但我們至少需要一種能夠成功
230.CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes, is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?
主持人：如果說到可能的大規模的創新 這個是不是你知道的最大的一個
231.BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.
蓋茨：能源的突破是最重要的事
232.It would have been, even without the environmental constraint, but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.
即使沒有環境的限制，它還會是最重要的問題 環境的限制使它變得更為突出，更為緊迫
233.In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.
在核領域，還有其它的創新者
234.You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one, but the modular people, that's a different approach.
但我對他們的工作,我們沒有像對這個項目一樣清楚 有些人在模塊方面的創新,是另外一種方式
235.There's a liquid type reactor, which seems a little hard, but maybe they say that about us.
還有一種液態反應堆，實現起來有點困難 但也許他們看我們的方式也覺得困難
236.And so, there are different ones, but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal,
所以，有很多不同的辦法 但核能的美妙之處在於, 一個鈾分子所含的能量是其它能源（比如煤）的一百萬倍 但核能的美妙之處在於, 一個鈾分子所含的能量是其它能源（比如煤）的一百萬倍
237.and so, if you can deal with the negatives, which are essentially the radiation, the footprint and cost, the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things,
如果能夠處理好負面因素，主要是輻射 如果能夠處理好負面因素，主要是輻射 其碳排放、成本以及潛能潛能，就其各種因素而言，將是無與倫比的 其碳排放、成本以及潛能潛能，就其各種因素而言，將是無與倫比的
238.is almost in a class of its own.
其碳排放、成本以及潛能潛能，就其各種因素而言，將是無與倫比的
239.CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
主持人；如果我們沒能成功怎麼辦？
240.Do we have to start taking emergency measures to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?
我們得采取什麼緊急措施 來保證地球溫度的穩定？
241.BG: If you get into that situation, it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart-attack.
蓋茨：如果事情發展到那一步 就像吃的太多，可能會得心臟病一樣
242.Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.
怎麼辦？你可能需要心臟手術之類的
243.There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, which are various techniques that would delay the heating to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.
有一種研究叫做地球工程學 通過各種技術來延緩全球變暖 可以為我們爭取20-30年的時間來共同行動
244.Now, that's just an insurance policy.
不過,那就像是一個保險政策
245.You hope you don't need to do that.
你希望你不會用到
246.Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy because it might make you lazy, that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.
有些人說根本不應該研究保險措施 因為這會使人懈怠 你會持續進食，反正你知道心臟手術可以挽救你
247.I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem, but there's now the geoengineering discussion about, should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,
考慮到問題的重要性，我不知道這樣是否明智 現在關於地球工程的討論 應該作為一個後備選擇, 以防形勢惡化得更快
248.or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect.
或者技術創新遲於我們的預期
249.CA: Climate skeptics: if you had a sentence or two to say to them, how might you persuade them that they're wrong?
主持人：對氣候變化論的懷疑者, 如果讓你對他們說一兩句話 你會怎麼說服他們？
250.BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.
蓋茨：很不幸，懷疑論者來自不同陣營
251.The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.
他們中很少持有科學證據
252.Are they saying there's negative feedback effects that have to do with clouds that offset things?
他們說那些負反饋的結果是由於雲的關係 他們說那些負反饋的結果是由於雲的關係
253.There are very, very few things that they can even say there's a chance in a million of those things.
他們極少能舉出令人信服的證據 即使是百萬分之一的概率
254.The main problem we have here is kind of like AIDS.
這裡的主要問題就像艾滋病
255.You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.
現在犯錯，將來得加倍的承受痛苦
256.And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems, the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later -- and a somewhat uncertain pain thing.
因此，當你遇到各種緊要問題時 現在承受痛苦關係到將來的收益 而且還是個不確定的痛苦
257.In fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case, and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say, okay, that isn't that big of a deal.
實際上，IPCC(政府間氣候變化專門委員會)報告，那還不是最壞的情況 而且，發達國家也有人看了報告後，說這沒什麼大不了的 而且，發達國家也有人看了報告後，說這沒什麼大不了的
258.The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.
事實上, 不確定的方面應該促進我們向這方面努力
259.But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints, then the skeptics say, okay, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,
但是我的願望是, 如果你把能源生產變得經濟了，同時也符合二氧化碳排放限制 但是我的願望是, 如果你把能源生產變得經濟了，同時也符合二氧化碳排放限制 那麼懷疑論者會說：好的，雖然我不關心二氧化碳排放的事情 那麼懷疑論者會說：好的，雖然我不關心二氧化碳排放的事情
260.I kind of wish it did put out CO2, but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before.
我甚至還有點希望它會排放二氧化碳 但我會採納這一新方法,因為能源比以前更便宜了
261.(Applause) CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument, that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,
但我會採納這一新方法,因為能源比以前更便宜了 主持人: 是否可以說，這就是你對比約恩隆伯格的回應 也就是說，如果你花所有精力來解決二氧化碳的問題，那就會取代其他目標
262.it's going to take away all your other goals of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth, [that] it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that
也就是說，如果你花所有精力來解決二氧化碳的問題，那就會取代其他目標 比如解決世界貧困, 或者瘧疾等等的目標 把錢投到那些領域是對資本的浪費，我們有更重要的事情要做
263.when there are better things we can do.
把錢投到那些領域是對資本的浪費，我們有更重要的事情要做
264.BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece -- say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now -- it's not that dramatic.
蓋茨：實際的研發投入其實沒多少，雖說美國應該每年多投入100億在這上面，這應該不會影響其他事情 蓋茨：實際的研發投入其實沒多少，雖說美國應該每年多投入100億在這上面，這應該不會影響其他事情 蓋茨：實際的研發投入其實沒多少，雖說美國應該每年多投入100億在這上面，這應該不會影響其他事情
265.It shouldn't take away from other things.
蓋茨：實際的研發投入其實沒多少，雖說美國應該每年多投入100億在這上面，這應該不會影響其他事情
266.The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree, is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that.
對於需要投巨資的事業, 如果不經濟沒有回報，對我而言基本是浪費，這點有些人可能持不同意見 對於需要投巨資的事業, 如果不經濟沒有回報，對我而言基本是浪費，這點有些人可能持不同意見
267.That, to me, mostly is a waste.
對於需要投巨資的事業, 如果不經濟沒有回報，對我而言基本是浪費，這點有些人可能持不同意見
268.Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap.
除非你已經很接近成功, 而且你在投資學習曲線，並且它將會變得很便宜 除非你已經很接近成功, 而且你在投資學習曲線，並且它將會變得很便宜
269.I believe we should try more things that have a potential to be far less expensive.
否則，我認為我們應該多方嘗試具有低成本潛力的方案 否則，我認為我們應該多方嘗試具有低成本潛力的方案
270.If the trade-off you get into is, let's make energy super expensive, then the rich can afford that.
如果為了解決氣候問題，最後讓能源變的異常昂貴，貴到只有富人用得起 如果為了解決氣候問題，最後讓能源變的異常昂貴，貴到只有富人用得起
271.I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy and not change our lifestyle.
對在坐各位來說，如果能源價格提高五倍，還不至於影響我們的生活方式 對在坐各位來說，如果能源價格提高五倍，還不至於影響我們的生活方式
272.The disaster is for that two billion.
但對地球上那二十億窮人來說就是個災難了
273.And even Lomborg has changed.
而且隆伯格的觀點已經變了，他的論點現在是，為什麼研究沒有得到更多的關注
274.His shtick now is, why isn't the R&D getting discussed more.
而且隆伯格的觀點已經變了，他的論點現在是，為什麼研究沒有得到更多的關注
275.He's still, because of his earlier stuff, still associated with the skeptic camp, but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp, and so, he's making the R&D point.
基於歷史的原因, 他還是屬於懷疑論陣營，但是他已經意識到那是個相當孤獨的陣營 基於歷史的原因, 他還是屬於懷疑論陣營，但是他已經意識到那是個相當孤獨的陣營 基於歷史的原因, 他還是屬於懷疑論陣營，但是他已經意識到那是個相當孤獨的陣營 所以,他開始擺出關於研發方面的觀點
276.And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.
我覺得那是一個非常值得探討的話題，因為對科研的投入之少實在是不可理喻
277.The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.
我覺得那是一個非常值得探討的話題，因為對科研的投入之少實在是不可理喻
278.CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here to say, I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.
主持人：比爾, 我想這裡的大多數人都跟我一樣，真心希望你的夢想成真，非常感謝！ 主持人：比爾, 我想這裡的大多數人都跟我一樣，真心希望你的夢想成真，非常感謝！
279.BG: Thank you.
蓋茨：謝謝大家/<code>
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