聽力原文如下
<code>1.So security is two different things: it's a feeling, and it's a reality.
安全其實是兩種事物： 它不僅是感覺，也是現實。
2.And they're different.
這兩樣事物是完全不同的。
3.You could feel secure even if you're not.
你可以在不安全的時候 感覺很安全。
4.And you can be secure even if you don't feel it.
或者你不感到安全的時候 卻很安全
5.Really, we have two separate concepts mapped onto the same word.
真的，我們有兩種不同的概念 存在於同一個詞語上。
6.And what I want to do in this talk is to split them apart -- figuring out when they diverge and how they converge.
我在這裡想要做的是 把它們區分開來 找出什麼時候它們存在分歧， 什麼時候又聚合在一起。
7.And language is actually a problem here.
語言是個大問題。
8.There aren't a lot of good words for the concepts we're going to talk about.
因為沒有多少適合的詞語去表達 我們將要談到的概念。
9.So if you look at security from economic terms, it's a trade-off.
如果你將安全 視為一個經濟學的名詞， 那它就是“權衡取捨”。
10.Every time you get some security, you're always trading off something.
每一次你得到一些安全， 你總是在拿一些東西去交換。
11.Whether this is a personal decision -- whether you're going to install a burglar alarm in your home -- or a national decision -- where you're going to invade some foreign country --
不管是個人決定 比如是否給家裡裝一個防盜器 或者國家的決策，比如去侵略哪個國家
12.you're going to trade off something, either money or time, convenience, capabilities, maybe fundamental liberties.
你都要去交換， 不管是金錢、時間、便利、能力， 還可能是基本自由權。
13.And the question to ask when you look at a security anything is not whether this makes us safer, but whether it's worth the trade-off.
當你面對安全的時候，要問的 不是這個能不能讓我們更安全， 而是值不值得我們去交換。
14.You've heard in the past several years, the world is safer because Saddam Hussein is not in power.
你們這幾年都聽過， 世界更安全了是因為薩達姆倒臺了。
15.That might be true, but it's not terribly relevant.
那個可能是真的，但沒什麼關係。
16.The question is, was it worth it?
問題是，值得嗎？
17.And you can make your own decision, and then you'll decide whether the invasion was worth it.
你可以有自己的想法， 然後決定那個侵略是否值得
18.That's how you think about security -- in terms of the trade-off.
那就是你如何在以權衡取捨 來考慮安全。
19.Now there's often no right or wrong here.
這裡沒有絕對的對與錯。
20.Some of us have a burglar alarm system at home, and some of us don't.
我們中的有些人在家安了防盜器 有些人沒有
21.And it'll depend on where we live, whether we live alone or have a family, how much cool stuff we have, how much we're willing to accept
安不安取決於我們住在哪裡 我們是獨居還是有個家庭 我們有多少值錢的東西 我們願意接受多少
22.the risk of theft.
盜竊帶來的風險
23.In politics also, there are different opinions.
對於政治來說也是一樣 存在著各種不同的觀點
24.A lot of times, these trade-offs are about more than just security, and I think that's really important.
很多時候，這些權衡取捨 不僅僅跟安全有關 對於這點我覺得很重要
25.Now people have a natural intuition about these trade-offs.
當今人們有一種 關於這些權衡取捨的直覺
26.We make them every day -- last night in my hotel room, when I decided to double-lock the door, or you in your car when you drove here,
我們每天都在用它來做決定 比如昨晚我在酒店房間裡 決定是否給門上兩層鎖的時候 或者你在駕車到這裡的路上
27.when we go eat lunch and decide the food's not poison and we'll eat it.
或者當我們去吃午飯時 會認為食物是沒毒的然後放心地吃
28.We make these trade-offs again and again, multiple times a day.
我們反覆做出這種權衡取捨 每天都有很多次
29.We often won't even notice them.
我們甚至沒有留意它們
30.They're just part of being alive; we all do it.
它們只是生活的一部分，人們都是這麼做的
31.Every species does it.
每一個物種都是這麼做的
32.Imagine a rabbit in a field, eating grass, and the rabbit's going to see a fox.
想象有一隻兔子在吃草 然後它看到了一隻狐狸
33.That rabbit will make a security trade-off: "Should I stay, or should I flee?"
那隻兔子需要做出一個關於安全的權衡取捨 “我應該留下，還是逃跑呢？”
34.And if you think about it, the rabbits that are good at making that trade-off will tend to live and reproduce, and the rabbits that are bad at it
正如你所見 懂得做出權衡取捨的兔子 會選擇生存和繁衍 而不懂的兔子
35.will get eaten or starve.
則被吃掉
36.So you'd think that us, as a successful species on the planet -- you, me, everybody -- would be really good at making these trade-offs.
所以你可能會想 作為這個星球上一支成功的物種的我們 -- 你、我、所有人 -- 比較擅長於做出有利的權衡取捨
37.Yet it seems, again and again, that we're hopelessly bad at it.
然而事實一次又一次地證明 我們並非如此
38.And I think that's a fundamentally interesting question.
我認為那是個關鍵又有趣的問題
39.I'll give you the short answer.
我給你們一個簡短的答案
40.The answer is, we respond to the feeling of security and not the reality.
答案就是，我們依據的是安全的感覺 而非現實
41.Now most of the time, that works.
很多時候，這樣沒什麼問題
42.Most of the time, feeling and reality are the same.
因為在大部分時間裡 感覺和現實是相同的
43.Certainly that's true for most of human prehistory.
在絕大部分史前人類歷史中 那也是沒錯的
44.We've developed this ability because it makes evolutionary sense.
我們發展了這個能力 因為它有利於進化
45.One way to think of it is that we're highly optimized for risk decisions that are endemic to living in small family groups in the East African highlands in 100,000 B.C.
繼續思考一下就知道 我們做出某些風險決策的能力 是高度優化了的 這些決策是以群居的小型家庭形式 生活在公元前十萬年的東非高地的人們所獨有 --
46.2010 New York, not so much.
其實2010年的紐約也差不多
47.Now there are several biases in risk perception.
現在有一些對風險的偏見
48.A lot of good experiments in this.
很多實驗都關於這些偏見
49.And you can see certain biases that come up again and again.
你可以觀察到有些偏見反覆出現
50.So I'll give you four.
我講四個
51.We tend to exaggerate spectacular and rare risks and downplay common risks -- so flying versus driving.
第一個，我們會誇大那些聳人聽聞但少見的風險 並漠視常見的 比如像飛機和汽車的事故率
52.The unknown is perceived to be riskier than the familiar.
第二個，未知的被認為比熟悉的 更加危險
53.One example would be, people fear kidnapping by strangers when the data supports kidnapping by relatives is much more common.
舉個例子 人們害怕被陌生人綁架 即使數據證實被親戚綁架更常見
54.This is for children.
以上都是針對孩子們來說的
55.Third, personified risks are perceived to be greater than anonymous risks -- so Bin Laden is scarier because he has a name.
第三個，人格化的風險 被認為比匿名的更嚴重 所以本拉登很可怕是因為他有個名字
56.And the fourth is people underestimate risks in situations they do control and overestimate them in situations they don't control.
第四個是 人們在他們覺得可以掌控的情況下 會低估風險 而在不能控制的情況下高估風險
57.So once you take up skydiving or smoking, you downplay the risks.
所以你在開始跳傘或抽菸後 會不再重視它們帶來的風險
58.If a risk is thrust upon you -- terrorism was a good example -- you'll overplay it because you don't feel like it's in your control.
如果你猛然面臨某種風險 -- 恐怖主義是個好例子 -- 你會高估它，因為你不覺得你可以控制了
59.There are a bunch of other of these biases, these cognitive biases, that affect our risk decisions.
還有許多這樣的認知偏見 影響著我們的風險決策
60.There's the availability heuristic, which basically means we estimate the probability of something by how easy it is to bring instances of it to mind.
有一種易得性偏差 意思是 我們在估計某事發生的概率時 依據的是想到具體的例子是否容易
61.So you can imagine how that works.
你可以想象那是怎麼作用的
62.If you hear a lot about tiger attacks, there must be a lot of tigers around.
如果你聽說了許多老虎襲擊人的消息，那麼你會認為肯定有很多老虎在附近
63.You don't hear about lion attacks, there aren't a lot of lions around.
如果你沒聽說獅子襲擊人，那麼就沒有多少獅子在附近
64.This works until you invent newspapers.
這是可行的直到報紙被髮明
65.Because what newspapers do is they repeat again and again rare risks.
因為報紙所做的 就是一遍又一遍地重複 那些少見的風險
66.I tell people, if it's in the news, don't worry about it.
我告訴大家，如果事情出現在新聞裡，那就不用擔心了
67.Because by definition, news is something that almost never happens.
因為按照定義 新聞是從來沒有發生過的事情
68.(Laughter) When something is so common, it's no longer news -- car crashes, domestic violence -- those are the risks you worry about.
（笑） 當事情變得常見了，那就不是新聞了 比如車禍和家庭暴力 你會擔心這些風險
69.We're also a species of storytellers.
我們同時也是一種會講故事的物種
70.We respond to stories more than data.
相比於數據，我們更喜歡故事
71.And there's some basic innumeracy going on.
在故事裡，總有些對科學的無知存在
72.I mean, the joke "One, Two, Three, Many" is kind of right.
比如 “一、二、三、很多”（見英文） 這個笑話
73.We're really good at small numbers.
我們善於用小數字
74.One mango, two mangoes, three mangoes, 10,000 mangoes, 100,000 mangoes -- it's still more mangoes you can eat before they rot.
一個芒果，兩個芒果，三個芒果 一萬個芒果，十萬個芒果 -- 在爛掉前還有足夠的芒果等你去吃
75.So one half, one quarter, one fifth -- we're good at that.
二分之一，四分之一，五分之一 -- 我們擅長這些
76.One in a million, one in a billion -- they're both almost never.
百萬分之一，十億分之一 -- 它們就像永遠不會發生那樣
77.So we have trouble with the risks that aren't very common.
所以我們不知如何面對 那些不常見的風險
78.And what these cognitive biases do is they act as filters between us and reality.
這些認知偏見所起的作用 就是像過濾器一樣隔斷我們和現實
79.And the result is that feeling and reality get out of whack, they get different.
結果呢 感覺和現實被割開 它們變得不同了
80.Now you either have a feeling -- you feel more secure than you are.
現在你要麼有種感覺 -- 你覺得比現實更加安全
81.There's a false sense of security.
這是一個錯誤的安全感
82.Or the other way, and that's a false sense of insecurity.
要麼相反 出現錯誤的不安全感
83.I write a lot about "security theater,"
我寫了很多關於”安全劇場“的文章
84.which are products that make people feel secure, but don't actually do anything.
這個概念只起到讓人們覺得很安全的作用 除此之外一無是處
85.There's no real word for stuff that makes us secure, but doesn't make us feel secure.
現實世界裡不存在讓我們安全 但不讓我們覺得安全的事物
86.Maybe it's what the CIA's supposed to do for us.
可能這就是CIA應該為我們做的
87.So back to economics.
好了，回到經濟學裡
88.If economics, if the market, drives security, and if people make trade-offs based on the feeling of security, then the smart thing for companies to do
如果經濟，或者市場，以安全為重 並且人們根據安全的感覺 作出權衡取捨 那麼精明的公司所應該做的
89.for the economic incentives are to make people feel secure.
為了經濟上的激勵 就是讓人們覺得安全
90.And there are two ways to do this.
有兩種方法可以做到
91.One, you can make people actually secure and hope they notice.
一，你可以真正地做到安全 然後希望人們可以注意到
92.Or two, you can make people just feel secure and hope they don't notice.
二，你可以讓人們覺得安全 然後希望他們沒有注意到真相
93.So what makes people notice?
那麼到底什麼可以引起人們注意是否安全呢？
94.Well a couple of things: understanding of the security, of the risks, the threats, the countermeasures, how they work.
有很多，比如 對安全的理解 對風險和威脅的理解 對 對策及其原理的理解
95.But if you know stuff, you're more likely to have your feelings match reality.
如果你知道很多東西 那麼你更有可能擁有與現實一致的感覺
96.Enough real world examples helps.
很多現實生活中的例子可以幫助理解
97.Now we all know the crime rate in our neighborhood, because we live there, and we get a feeling about it that basically matches reality.
比如我們都瞭解我們居住的地區的犯罪率 因為我們住在那，並且我們能夠感受的到 這種感覺與現實基本相符
98.Security theater's exposed when it's obvious that it's not working properly.
”安全劇場“會在失靈的時候 很明顯的暴露出來
99.Okay, so what makes people not notice?
好，接下來，什麼讓人們不去注意安全呢？
100.Well, a poor understanding.
這裡有個簡單的理解
101.If you don't understand the risks, you don't understand the costs, you're likely to get the trade-off wrong, and your feeling doesn't match reality.
如果你不理解風險，你就不理解成本 你就會做出錯誤的權衡取捨 並且你的感覺與現實不符
102.Not enough examples.
沒多少例子
103.There's an inherent problem with low probability events.
在小概率事件裡 存在一個固有的問題
104.If, for example, terrorism almost never happens, it's really hard to judge the efficacy of counter-terrorist measures.
舉個例子 如果恐怖行動從來沒發生過 那麼就很難對反恐措施的效果 進行衡量
105.This is why you keep sacrificing virgins, and why your unicorn defenses are working just great.
這是為什麼人們犧牲處女 和對童話的牴觸會如此成功的原因
106.There aren't enough examples of failures.
鮮有失敗的例子
107.Also, feelings that are clouding the issues -- the cognitive biases I talked about earlier, fears, folk beliefs, basically an inadequate model of reality.
同時，對於事情的感覺 -- 之前說的認知偏見 恐懼和盲目相信熟悉的人 -- 基本上一個對現實的不完整模型
108.So let me complicate things.
讓我深入一點
109.I have feeling and reality.
我現在有感覺和現實
110.I want to add a third element. I want to add model.
我想加入第三個元素，一個模型
111.Feeling and model in our head, reality is the outside world.
感覺和模型存在於腦海裡 現實存在於外部世界
112.It doesn't change; it's real.
它是不會變的，它是真實的
113.So feeling is based on our intuition.
所以感覺是建立在直覺上的
114.Model is based on reason.
模型是建立在理智上的
115.That's basically the difference.
那是關鍵的不同之處
116.In a primitive and simple world, there's really no reason for a model because feeling is close to reality.
在一個原始又簡單的世界裡 沒有建立模型的必要 因為感覺和現實很接近
117.You don't need a model.
你不需要
118.But in a modern and complex world, you need models to understand a lot of the risks we face.
但是在現在這個複雜的世界裡 你需要模型 去理解面對的很多風險
119.There's no feeling about germs.
比如說，沒有什麼感覺是關於細菌的
120.You need a model to understand them.
你需要一個模型去了解它們
121.So this model is an intelligent representation of reality.
所以這個模型 是在理智層面上的現實
122.It's, of course, limited by science, by technology.
它當然被科學和技術 所限制著
123.We couldn't have a germ theory of disease before we invented the microscope to see them.
我們沒法在發明顯微鏡觀察細菌前 擁有一套關於細菌和疾病的理論
124.It's limited by our cognitive biases.
它同時也被我們的認知偏見所限制
125.But it has the ability to override our feelings.
但模型有能力 凌駕於我們的感覺
126.Where do we get these models? We get them from others.
我們從哪裡得到這些模型的呢？從其他人那裡
127.We get them from religion, from culture, teachers, elders.
從宗教、文化 老師、長輩那裡得到
128.A couple years ago, I was in South Africa on safari.
很多年前 我在南非狩獵
129.The tracker I was with grew up in Kruger National Park.
跟我一起的那個追蹤者是在克魯格國家公園長大的
130.He had some very complex models of how to survive.
他有一些如何生存的複雜模型
131.And it depended on if you were attacked by a lion or a leopard or a rhino or an elephant -- and when you had to run away, and when you couldn't run away, and when you had to climb a tree --
分別針對被獅子、獵豹、 犀牛還是大象所攻擊的情況 和什麼時候應該逃跑，什麼時候應該爬樹
132.when you could never climb a tree.
和什麼時候千萬別上樹
133.I would have died in a day, but he was born there, and he understood how to survive.
我可能會在一天內就死在那裡 但他生在那裡 他知道生存的方法
134.I was born in New York City.
我生在紐約
135.I could have taken him to New York, and he would have died in a day.
我可以把他帶到紐約，估計他也會在一天內就沒命了
136.(Laughter) Because we had different models based on our different experiences.
（笑） 原因在我們有建立在我們各自經驗上的 不同的模型
137.Models can come from the media, from our elected officials.
模型來自媒體 來自我們選出的政府
138.Think of models of terrorism, child kidnapping, airline safety, car safety.
想一下恐怖襲擊的模型 綁架兒童的模型 飛機和汽車的安全模型
139.Models can come from industry.
模型可以來自某個工業領域
140.The two I'm following are surveillance cameras, ID cards, quite a lot of our computer security models come from there.
我關注的兩個是監視器 和身份證 很多計算機安全模型都來自它們
141.A lot of models come from science.
還有些模型來自科學
142.Health models are a great example.
以健康模型為例
143.Think of cancer, of bird flu, swine flu, SARS.
想想癌症、禽流感、豬流感、非典
144.All of our feelings of security about those diseases come from models given to us, really, by science filtered through the media.
我們所有關於 這些疾病的感覺 都來自於 媒體從科學裡過濾出來之後灌輸給我們的
145.So models can change.
所以模型是可變的
146.Models are not static.
模型不是靜態的
147.As we become more comfortable in our environments, our model can move closer to our feelings.
隨著我們越來越適應環境 模型會越來越接近現實
148.So an example might be, if you go back 100 years ago when electricity was first becoming common, there were a lot of fears about it.
舉個例子 如果你回到一百年前 那時電剛剛普及 仍然有很多人害怕它
149.I mean, there were people who were afraid to push doorbells, because there was electricity in there, and that was dangerous.
有些人害怕按門鈴 因為那有電，所以很危險
150.For us, we're very facile around electricity.
對於我們來說，我們跟電相處地很融洽
151.We change light bulbs without even thinking about it.
我們不用怎麼想 就可以換燈泡
152.Our model of security around electricity is something we were born into.
我們擁有的關於電和安全的模型 是天生的
153.It hasn't changed as we were growing up.
它沒有隨著我們的成長而變化
154.And we're good at it.
並且我們很適應
155.Or think of the risks on the Internet across generations -- how your parents approach Internet security, versus how you do, versus how our kids will.
再想想在不同年齡層的人 關於互聯網風險的認識 -- 你的父母是怎麼看待互聯網安全的 你是怎麼看待的 你的孩子們會怎麼看待
156.Models eventually fade into the background.
模型最終會消失在無意識裡
157.Intuitive is just another word for familiar.
直覺來自於熟悉
158.So as your model is close to reality, and it converges with feelings, you often don't know it's there.
所以隨著你的模型越來越接近現實 它將同感覺合二為一 你將感覺不到它的存在
159.So a nice example of this came from last year and swine flu.
以去年的豬流感為例 以去年的豬流感為例
160.When swine flu first appeared, the initial news caused a lot of overreaction.
當豬流感第一次出現時 一開始的新聞造成了過度的反應
161.Now it had a name, which made it scarier than the regular flu, even though it was more deadly.
現在它有了個名字 使之變得比平常的流感更加可怕 即使它沒那麼致命
162.And people thought doctors should be able to deal with it.
另外，人們覺得醫生應該能夠解決掉它
163.So there was that feeling of lack of control.
所以產生了一種失去控制的感覺
164.And those two things made the risk more than it was.
以上兩種原因 使風險變得比實際更嚴重
165.As the novelty wore off, the months went by, there was some amount of tolerance, people got used to it.
幾個月過去了，隨著新鮮感的消退 人們接受了 並且習慣了豬流感的事情
166.There was no new data, but there was less fear.
沒有新的數據，但恐懼減少了
167.By autumn, people thought the doctors should have solved this already.
秋天的時候 人們想 醫生應該已經解決問題了
168.And there's kind of a bifurcation -- people had to choose between fear and acceptance -- actually fear and indifference -- they kind of chose suspicion.
一個選擇出現了 -- 人們必須從 恐懼接受中選擇 -- 實際上是恐懼和漠視 -- 他們選擇了懷疑
169.And when the vaccine appeared last winter, there were a lot of people -- a surprising number -- who refused to get it -- as a nice example
當疫苗在冬天出現的時候 很多人 -- 非常大的數量 -- 拒絕接種 這可以作為
170.of how people's feelings of security change, how their model changes, sort of wildly with no new information, with no new input.
人們的安全感和模型是如何 劇烈地 在沒有新信息 的情況下改變的
171.This kind of thing happens a lot.
這種情況經常發生
172.I'm going to give one more complication.
現在我再把概念深入一點
173.We have feeling, model, reality.
我們有感覺、模型和現實
174.I have a very relativistic view of security.
我認為安全其實還是相對的
175.I think it depends on the observer.
它取決於觀察者
176.And most security decisions have a variety of people involved.
大多數關於安全的決策 是由各種人群所參與決定的
177.And stakeholders with specific trade-offs will try to influence the decision.
有小算盤的利益相關者 有小算盤的利益相關者 會試著影響決策的進行
178.And I call that their agenda.
我稱其為他們的議程
179.And you see agenda -- this is marketing, this is politics -- trying to convince you to have one model versus another, trying to convince you to ignore a model
你可以瞧見這個議程 -- 不管是市場還是政治 -- 它嘗試著說服你只擁有其中一種模型 說服你去忽視模型
180.and trust your feelings, marginalizing people with models you don't like.
而相信感覺 邊緣化那些擁有跟你的模型的不同的人們
181.This is not uncommon.
這很常見
182.An example, a great example, is the risk of smoking.
這裡有個例子，很好的例子，關於吸菸的危害
183.In the history of the past 50 years, the smoking risk shows how a model changes, and it also shows how an industry fights against a model it doesn't like.
在過去50年裡，吸菸的危害 展示了一個模型是怎麼變化的 同時也展示了一個工業是怎麼對付 一個它不喜歡的模型
184.Compare that to the secondhand smoke debate -- probably about 20 years behind.
你可以把它跟20年後 關於二手菸的爭論相比較
185.Think about seat belts.
再想想安全帶
186.When I was a kid, no one wore a seat belt.
當我還小的時候，沒人系安全帶
187.Nowadays, no kid will let you drive if you're not wearing a seat belt.
現在呢，如果你不繫安全帶 沒有哪個孩子會讓你開車
188.Compare that to the airbag debate -- probably about 30 years behind.
你可以把它跟30年後 關於安全氣囊的爭論相比較
189.All examples of models changing.
這幾個例子裡的模型都變了
190.What we learn is that changing models is hard.
由此我們可以的出結論，模型是很難被改變的
191.Models are hard to dislodge.
模型是很難被移除的
192.If they equal your feelings, you don't even know you have a model.
如果模型跟你的感覺相符 你甚至不知道你有個模型
193.And there's another cognitive bias I'll call confirmation bias, where we tend to accept data that confirms our beliefs and reject data that contradicts our beliefs.
再說另一個認知偏見 證實性偏見 意思是我們傾向於接受 那些能夠支持我們觀點的數據 而拒絕那些反對的
194.So evidence against our model, we're likely to ignore, even if it's compelling.
所以對於那些與我們的模型相反的證據 我們會忽略掉，即使它們很有說服力
195.It has to get very compelling before we'll pay attention.
那些證據必須非常非常令人信服，我們才會去關注
196.New models that extend long periods of time are hard.
一個時間跨度長的新模型難以讓人接受
197.Global warming is a great example.
比如像全球變暖
198.We're terrible at models that span 80 years.
我們很難接受一個 超過80年的的模型
199.We can do to the next harvest.
我們可以接受一年的
200.We can often do until our kids grow up.
我們也可以接受讓一個小孩長大那麼長的時間
201.But 80 years, we're just not good at.
但80年還是太難了
202.So it's a very hard model to accept.
所以那是個非常難以讓人接受的模型
203.We can have both models in our head simultaneously, right, that kind of problem where we're holding both beliefs together, right, the cognitive dissonance.
我們可以同時擁有對同一件事情的 兩個模型 此時，我們擁有同時兩種信念 這種情況也叫認知不協調
204.Eventually, the new model will replace the old model.
最後 新模型代替了舊模型
205.Strong feelings can create a model.
強烈的感覺可以產生一個模型
206.September 11th created a security model in a lot of people's heads.
911在很多人腦裡 產生了一個安全模型
207.Also, personal experiences with crime can do it, personal health scare, a health scare in the news.
同時，個人的犯罪經歷和 一次健康危機 -- 就是那種在新聞裡可以看到的那種 -- 也可以產生模型
208.You'll see these called flashbulb events by psychiatrists.
那些經歷在心理學裡叫做 閃光燈事件
209.They can create a model instantaneously, because they're very emotive.
它們能迅速地產生一個模型 因為引起了強烈的個人感情
210.So in the technological world, we don't have experience to judge models.
所以在一個技術世界裡 我們沒有可以判斷模型 的經歷
211.And we rely on others. We rely on proxies.
我們依賴其他人，我們依賴於代理人
212.I mean, this works as long as it's to correct others.
這樣是可以的，只要它能夠糾正錯誤就行
213.We rely on government agencies to tell us what pharmaceuticals are safe.
我們依賴政府 來告訴我們哪些藥品是安全的
214.I flew here yesterday.
我是昨天坐飛機來的
215.I didn't check the airplane.
我沒檢查飛機是否安全
216.I relied on some other group to determine whether my plane was safe to fly.
我依賴其他人 去決定我坐的飛機是否安全
217.We're here, none of us fear the roof is going to collapse on us, not because we checked, but because we're pretty sure the building codes here are good.
我們坐在這裡，沒人擔心屋頂會塌 不是因為我們親自檢查過 而是我們非常確定 這建築符合規範
218.It's a model we just accept pretty much by faith.
這是一種模型我們只是 因為信念而接受
219.And that's okay.
這也沒錯
220.Now, what we want is people to get familiar enough with better models -- have it reflected in their feelings -- to allow them to make security trade-offs.
現在，我們希望的是 人們能夠認識一些 更好的模型 -- 在感覺裡顯現出來 -- 以幫助他們做出更好的權衡取捨
221.Now when these go out of whack, you have two options.
當感覺和模型分開的時候 你有兩個選擇
222.One, you can fix people's feelings, directly appeal to feelings.
第一，改變人們的感覺 直接訴諸於感覺
223.It's manipulation, but it can work.
這是一種操縱，但有效果
224.The second, more honest way is to actually fix the model.
第二，更誠實一點的做法 就是改變模型
225.Change happens slowly.
改變是很緩慢的
226.The smoking debate took 40 years, and that was an easy one.
吸菸的爭論持續了40年 而那還是比較簡單的一個
227.Some of this stuff is hard.
有一些是非常困難的
228.I mean really though, information seems like our best hope.
是真的很困難 看起來信息是我們最好的希望
229.And I lied.
事實上我之前撒了個謊
230.Remember I said feeling, model, reality; I said reality doesn't change. It actually does.
我之前提到感覺、模型和現實 我說現實不會改變。事實上它會。
231.We live in a technological world; reality changes all the time.
我們生活在一個技術的世界裡 現實每時每刻都在改變
232.So we might have -- for the first time in our species -- feeling chases model, model chases reality, reality's moving -- they might never catch up.
所以，可能是我們這個物種裡的第一次 感覺追趕著模型，模型追趕著現實，而現實則在不斷改變 它們可能永遠也追不上
233.We don't know.
這點誰知道呢
234.But in the long-term, both feeling and reality are important.
但是就長期來看 感覺和現實是很重要的
235.And I want to close with two quick stories to illustrate this.
結束前我想以兩個小故事來說明這點
236.1982 -- I don't know if people will remember this -- there was a short epidemic of Tylenol poisonings in the United States.
1982年 -- 我不知道人們還記不記得 -- 那時在美國發生了一次 時間不長但傳播範圍廣的泰諾中毒事件
237.It's a horrific story. Someone took a bottle of Tylenol, put poison in it, closed it up, put it back on the shelf.
很可怕。有人拿了一瓶泰諾膠囊， 放毒進去，關上蓋子，然後又放回貨架
238.Someone else bought it and died.
七個人買回去吃了然後中毒而死
239.This terrified people.
人們很害怕
240.There were a couple of copycat attacks.
當時還有些模仿此投毒的行為
241.There wasn't any real risk, but people were scared.
幸好後者沒什麼真正的危險，但人們被嚇到了
242.And this is how the tamper-proof drug industry was invented.
這是防盜瓶蓋產業 得以發展起來的原因
243.Those tamper-proof caps, that came from this.
那些防盜瓶蓋就是這麼來的
244.It's complete security theater.
它就是所謂的安全劇場
245.As a homework assignment, think of 10 ways to get around it.
你們可以想想10種破解防盜瓶蓋的方法
246.I'll give you one, a syringe.
我先說一個，用注射器
247.But it made people feel better.
即使沒那麼安全，但至少人們感覺更安全了
248.It made their feeling of security more match the reality.
它讓人們對安全的感覺 跟現實更為符合
249.Last story, a few years ago, a friend of mine gave birth.
最後一個故事。幾年前，我一個朋友要生了
250.I visit her in the hospital.
我去醫院看她
251.It turns out when a baby's born now, they put an RFID bracelet on the baby, put a corresponding one on the mother, so if anyone other than the mother takes the baby out of the maternity ward,
發現當一個嬰兒出生後 他們會給嬰兒戴上一個帶RFID的手鐲 然後給母親也配一個對應的 這樣，當一個不是母親的人想把嬰兒從產房帶走
252.an alarm goes off.
警報就會響
253.I said, "Well, that's kind of neat.
我說：“這措施不錯。
254.I wonder how rampant baby snatching is out of hospitals."
我想知道在醫院 偷盜嬰兒的行為有多猖獗。”
255.I go home, I look it up.
回到家，我查了一下。
256.It basically never happens.
基本上從來沒發生過
257.But if you think about it, if you are a hospital, and you need to take a baby away from its mother, out of the room to run some tests,
但如果你仔細想想 如果你是醫生 你需要給嬰兒從母親身邊帶走 帶出房間做點測試
258.you better have some good security theater, or she's going to rip your arm off.
你最好有安全劇院 不然的話那位母親會把你的胳膊都拽下來
259.(Laughter) So it's important for us, those of us who design security, who look at security policy, or even look at public policy in ways that affect security.
（笑） 所以，安全劇院這個概念對於 那些做安全設計的， 那些以實際效果來看待 安全政策或公共政策的人來說 是非常重要的
260.It's not just reality; it's feeling and reality.
它不只是現實，它是感覺和現實
261.What's important is that they be about the same.
重要的是 它們幾乎是一樣的
262.It's important that, if our feelings match reality, we make better security trade-offs.
如果我們的感覺和現實相符 我們就能夠做出更好的關於安全的權衡取捨
263.Thank you.
謝謝/<code>
結束語
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