在金融市場，科技可以取代人類嗎？｜英語每天學科技頭條網

在金融市場，科技可以取代人類嗎？｜英語每天學

上海圖書館每天為頭條號的讀者提供優質的英語閱讀

導讀

人工智能在金融業的運作，已經有數年的歷史。基於大數據、人工智能(AI)、雲計算科技的一大批現實應用，均已紛紛落地投入使用，極大地提高了工作效率。一時間，有關“人工智能可能讓銀行職員和分析師們失業”、“華爾街將失守”等憂慮也隨之而來。

在傳統金融業搶灘金融科技(Fintech)浪潮的同時，後者真能給世界帶來顛覆性變革嗎?華爾街會不會像傳說中那樣“淪陷”?金融科技未來趨勢將是怎樣的?眾多機構及業內人士表示，顛覆或許尚早，但未來的無限可能值得期許。

# Technology will not replace humans in the financial markets#

Goldman Sachs, the investment bank, recently announced that two-thirds of all trades on major stock exchanges are now carried out by computers. Despite this, we strongly believe that humans still have a central role to play in the financial markets and will do for the foreseeable future.

Let us consider one element of our fundamental research process: the visit to a company’s management. Human beings are deeply social creatures, with the ability to use instinct, to read body language and to judge atmosphere.

It is hard to imagine a computer knowing precisely when to ask the killer question of a chief executive, and how to judge the response. The portfolio manager will have seen numerous similar management teams and will be able to measure the chief executive’s answers versus his or her experience of similar situations.

Will computers be able to get a feel for the culture of a company, for how the employees are being motivated, for the ambience on a factory floor? The answer is maybe, but not yet. Deep learning is moving quickly and is making advances which, until only recently, seemed unimaginable. There is technology in development that will analyze company conference calls, letting portfolio managers know not only whether the management is telling the truth, but also how confident they are in what they are saying.

In our view, however, such analysis will for some time yet still need to go through a human portfolio manager who can synthesize it into an effective investment decision. We were recently told by the head of research at a leading investment bank that 2016 would be the first year that he had not hired a single analyst. All of his recruitment budget went on technology and people to operate that technology.

Human will have an integral part to play, but it is not unfair to say that the investment firm of the future is likely to look very different from its current incarnation.