本文大概4100字，讀完共需
5分鐘作者何偉文系前駐舊金山、紐約總領館經濟商務參贊，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院高級研究員，本文刊於4月9日中美聚焦網，原標題《“大蕭條”會重演嗎？》。過些時候，2020年第一季度也許會被人們看成是猖獗的新冠疫情引發新一輪全球經濟衰退的開始。第一季度結束時，全世界確診的感染人數已經達到879232人，死亡43650人。
撰寫本文的時候，新確診病例正以每天40000例的速度增加。美國已經有20萬例，其次是意大利和西班牙，都突破了10萬大關。
從保持社交距離，到封鎖和隔離，世界各國政府宣佈了嚴厲的措施，為的是遏制疫情的蔓延。隨著工廠、商店、餐館和主題公園關閉，以及大多數航班停飛，世界許多地區的經濟正在急速下滑。
圖源：約翰斯·霍普金斯大學。數據截止4月14日8時
接近衰退
這場大流行令人擔憂地衝擊了世界資本市場。華爾街在十個交易日內發生了四次熔斷，這是1987年以來從未有過的。道瓊斯工業股票平均指數、標普500指數和納斯達克指數的表現皆為有史以來季度最糟，分別下降了23.2%、20%和14.2%。隨後的4月1日則是最糟的季度開盤，道指又下跌4.4%。
美聯儲旋即把基準利率下調至零，並實行無限的量化寬鬆。美國國會通過一項龐大的救助計劃，總額達2.2萬億美元，幾乎是雷曼兄弟破產後小布什政府紓困資金的三倍。為了應對這一次衝擊，G20舉行了緊急在線峰會，承諾提供5萬億美元的財政支持，以拯救世界經濟。
在3月21日結束的一週裡，美國申領失業救濟的人數飆升至328萬，是2008年9月金融危機後69萬人的四倍。高盛預計第二季度的GDP將下降24%，而聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行估計美國的失業率最終可能達到32.1%，與上世紀30年代的“大蕭條”時期相仿。
德國研究機構也預計，新冠病毒有可能使德國2020年的GDP損失3540億至7290億歐元，跌幅約在10%至20.6%，都遠遠超過2008年全球金融危機後GDP下降的5%，並接近“大蕭條”時的水平（30%）。
這些可怕的預測得到IMF總裁克里斯塔利娜• 格奧爾基耶娃的附和。她表示，新冠病毒已經把世界拖入至少與2008年危機一樣嚴重的衰退。
2020年的不同之處
上世紀30年代與2020年之間有著本質的不同。首先，它們是兩種不同類型的衰退。“大蕭條”是源於內部問題，主要是生產過剩。美國的工業生產在上世紀20年代突飛猛進，部分是由於歐洲國家受一戰重創後出現了巨大的需求，部分是由於美國國內的信貸經濟。
1920-29年間，美國工業生產率累計提高了55%，而工人的每小時平均工資只增加了2%，這導致購買力不足。農業危機則加劇了這種狀況，農民收入因此減少，比非農工人平均要低30%。
產品供應與實際消費需求之間存在的差距，主要是由消費信貸來彌補，這形成了生產和消費的虛假繁榮。隨著消費者債務攀升，1929年某個時刻的一次股市大跌引發了連鎖反應。存款人到銀行擠提存款，致使銀行倒閉，而銀行倒閉反過來又觸發股市恐慌，股價暴跌導致工廠倒閉和失業，進一步減少了消費需求和投資。這種典型的惡性循環使GDP持續大幅下降，失業率不斷飆升。
1929年10月，破產的股民站在交易所外
相比之下，當前的全球衰退是新冠病毒這個外部因素引發的，它迫使經濟活動大規模停止，產出和消費隨之急劇收縮。但經濟基本面並沒有指向急劇下降，一旦疫情得到控制，經濟活動就會逐漸恢復正常。
其次，應對1929年大崩盤的反週期政策與今天的政策不同。當年“大蕭條”爆發，幾乎沒有有效的貨幣工具來緩解。當時美國和歐洲的央行都實行金本位，任何貨幣增發都必須基於一國實際持有的黃金。赫伯特·胡佛政府秉持奧地利經濟學派的觀點，採取財政緊縮政策，進一步擠壓企業急需的財政支持。所有這些措施對陷入困境的經濟無濟於事，事實上是雪上加霜。結果經濟下滑了四年。
然而，應對當前全球衰退的大規模救援計劃已經很快實施。美聯儲和其他央行迅速採取了零利率或負利率，以及大規模的量化寬鬆政策。各國政府宣佈了龐大的救助方案，例如美國是2.2萬億美元，英國是3300億英鎊，德國是7500億歐元。這些無疑將緩解衰退下行的曲線。
第三，今天的國際環境不同。主要經濟體之間的關稅戰加劇了“大蕭條”，而當時國際合作甚少。如今，G20機制迅速起動，積極帶領世界主要經濟體組成了對抗衰退的聯合陣線。其他多邊機構，如IMF、世行、WTO、OECD等也都在協力參與。
基於以上因素，我們有理由相信，一方面，當前的全球經濟衰退在規模和深度上可能堪比“大蕭條”，這取決於疫情的最終影響；另一方面，我們完全有機會在疫情過後迅速復甦，讓衰退週期更短，破壞性更小。
債務危機警報
今天，新冠病毒引發的經濟衰退有可能導致一場嚴重的債務危機。如果出現這種情況，世界經濟就可能呈現L型軌跡，這意味著衰退過後復甦乏力，一場持續數年的蕭條由此開始。
自從2008年危機以來，世界經濟大體遵循的是債務驅動模式。目前全球債務總額達到253萬億美元，相當於全球GDP的322%。在美國，公共債務已經相當於GDP的108%。在全球範圍內，非金融企業的債務總額超過200萬億美元。2018年，美國28.2%非金融企業的公司債是BBB級。
隨著實體經濟下滑，資本市場跟著下跌，資產價值亦不能倖免。在這個非常時期，償還公司債將會導致更多的企業破產和就業崗位消失。新興經濟體和發展中經濟體的情況更糟。它們的硬通貨外債目前達8.3萬億美元，是十年前的兩倍，其中85%是美元債務。隨著經濟衰退和本幣對美元貶值，它們的債務危機可能近在眼前。
避免另一場“大蕭條”
為避免“大蕭條”重演，各國應當在世衛組織指導下共同努力抗擊疫情，儘快遏制其蔓延。所有的經濟援助措施雖然有幫助，但都不如控制住疫情更有效。在抗擊新冠病毒這個人類共同敵人的戰鬥中，汙名化中國既有失公正，也於事無補。
在協調全球努力，支持脆弱的經濟方面，G20和其他多邊機構應發揮更有效的作用。財政和貨幣救助措施應當扶持各國的實體經濟和就業，幫助減輕債務負擔和去槓桿。
“大蕭條”時期的保護主義教訓不應被遺忘。當美國在1930年根據《斯穆特-霍利法》全面提高進口關稅時，英國、法國、西班牙和加拿大迅速以同樣的對策反擊，導致世界貿易驟降50%，進一步加劇了經濟蕭條。
當前全球性經濟衰退期間，任何保護主義措施都將進一步擾亂脆弱的全球供應鏈，使形勢更為嚴峻。所有經濟體應該攜手合作，勿採取任何新的保護主義措施，維護現有全球供應鏈，確保貨物、資源、資本和技術的跨境自由流動。只有這樣，才能避免出現另一場“大蕭條”。
以下為英文版
Will the Great Depression Repeat Itself?The first quarter of 2020 may be seen later as the start of a new worldwide economic recession caused by the rampant COVID-19 pandemic. At quarter's end, the number of verified infections worldwide had hit 879,232, with 43,650 deaths.
As of this writing, new verified cases have been rising at a pace of 40,000 per day. The United States already had 200,000 cases, followed by Italy and Spain, each breaking the 100,000 mark.
Governments across the globe have announced severe measures to check its spread, from social distancing practices to lockdowns and quarantines. With factories, shops, restaurants and theme parks closed and most airline flights suspended, the economy has been falling off a cliff in many parts of the world.
Approaching recession
The pandemic hit world capital markets alarmingly. Wall Street had four-circuit breakers in 10 days of trading, something not seen since 1987, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all experiencing the worst quarterly performances in their history, shedding 23.2 percent, 20 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively. That was followed on April 1 by the worst quarterly opening, as the Dow fell by another 4.4 percent.
The U.S. Federal Reserve immediately cut its benchmark interest rate to zero and adopted unlimited quantitative easing. The U.S. Congress passed a huge rescue plan, totaling $ 2.2 trillion, almost three times the size the George W. Bush administration bailout after the Lehman Brothers failure. The G20, held an emergency online summit responding to the shock, committing $5 trillion in financial support to save the world economy.
The numbers for jobless relief shot up to 3.28 million in the U.S. during the week ending March 21, four times the 690,000 following the financial crisis in September 2008. Goldman Sachs had estimated a 24 percent decline in GDP for Q2, and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that the U.S. jobless rate would probably hit 32.1 percent ultimately, similar to the Great Depression of the 1930's.
German research institutions also estimated that COVID-19 would likely cost German GDP 354 billion to 729 billion euros in 2020, a drop somewhere between 10 and 20.6 percent. Both far exceeded the GDP drop of 5 percent after the 2008 global financial crisis and are close to the Great Depression level (30%).
These awful estimates were echoed by Kristalina Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund, who said that COVID-19 had already dragged the world into a recession at least as serious as the 2008 crisis.
Differences in 2020
There are fundamental differences between the 1930s and 2020. First, they are two different types of recession. The Great Depression was caused the internal problems, mainly overproduction. U.S. industrial production had soared during the 1920's partly because of tremendous demand from European countries that had been hit severely by World War I, and partly because of the credit economy at home.
Industrial productivity increased by an accumulative 55 percent in the 1920-29 period, while the average hourly wage of workers increased by only 2 percent, resulting in inadequate purchasing power. The agricultural crisis aggravated this situation, leading to a reduction in farmers' income, which averaged 30 percent lower than nonfarm workers.
The gap between product supply and actual consumer demand was made up largely by consumer credit, creating a false boom in both production and consumption. With consumer debt climbing, a mass failure at one point in 1929 triggered a chain reaction. Depositors swarmed to withdraw their bank savings, causing bank failures. The bank failures, in turn, triggered a stock market panic, and tumbling stocks resulted in factory closures and unemployment, which further reduced consumer demand and investment. The classic depression feedback loop resulted in a continuous, drastic fall in GDP and skyrocketing unemployment.
The current world recession, by contrast, is the result of an external factor — COVID-19 — which forced a widespread halt of economic activity and a consequent sharp drop in output and consumption. Economic fundamentals do not point to a sharp fall. Once the pandemic is under control, economic activity will gradually return to normal.
Second, the counter-cyclical policy responses to the 1929 crash are different from today's. When the Great Depression broke out, there were virtually no effective monetary tools with which to soften it. At that time, U.S. and European central banks were on the gold standard, in which any increase in the money supply must be based on a country's physical gold holdings. The administration of Herbert Hoover, which held to the Austrian school of economics, adopted a fiscal policy of austerity, further squeezing fiscal support to starving businesses. All those measures failed to an economy in a tailspin and in fact just made things worse. The dive lasted four years.
With the current world recession, however, massive rescue plans were enacted immediately. The Fed and other central banks quickly adopted zero or negative interest policies and large-scale quantitative easing. National governments announced large scale rescue measures, ranging from $2.2 trillion in the U.S., 330 billion pounds in UK and 750 billion euros in Germany, for example. They will undoubtedly mitigate the downside curve of the recession.
Third, the international environment is different today. The Great Depression was aggravated by tariff wars between leading economies, with little international cooperation. Now, the G20 mechanism quickly came to the fore and is energetically bringing the world-leading economies into a joint front against the recession. Other multilateral institutions, such as the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO and OECD are all pitching in.
Based on all the above-mentioned factors, we have reason to believe, on one hand, that the current world recession could be similar to the Great Depression in its magnitude and depth, depending on the ultimate impact of the pandemic. On the other hand, we have every chance for a quick post-pandemic recovery, making the recession shorter and less destructive.
Debt crisis alert
Today's recession, caused by COVID-19, may lead to a substantive debt crisis.If that happens, an L-shaped trajectory for the world economy could appear, meaning a feeble post-recession recovery and the beginning of a depression lasting for years.
The world economy has largely followed a debt-driven model since the 2008 crisis. Total world debt currently amounts to $253 trillion, or 322 percent of global GDP. In the U.S. public debt is already 108 percent of the country's GDP. Globally, the total debt of non-financial companies exceeds $200 trillion. In the U.S., 28.2 percent of all non-financial companies' corporate debt was rated BBB in 2018.
As the real economy falls, the capital market also falls, and so do asset values. In that eventuality, corporate debt service will lead to more business bankruptcies and job losses. The conditions are even worse in newly emerging and developing economies. Their hard currency external debt stands at $8.3 trillion currently, twice what it was 10 years ago, with 85 percent in U.S. dollars. With their economies fallidng and national currencies depreciating against the dollar, a debt crisis could lie ahead.
Avoiding another Great Depression
To avoid a repeat of the Great Depression, there should be a concerted effort by all countries, under the guidance of the World Health Organization, to fight the pandemic and check its spread as quickly as possible. All rescue measures, helpful though they are, will be less effective than getting the pandemic under control. Stigmatizing China is neither justified nor helpful in fighting COVID-19, the common enemy of mankind.
The G20 and other multilateral institutions should play a more effective role in coordinating global efforts to support the fragile economy. Fiscal and monetary rescue measures should support the real economy and jobs in various countries, helping to relieve debt and deleverage.
The lesson of protectionism in the Great Depression should not be forgotten. When the U.S. lifted tariffs across the board on imports under the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930, The United Kingdom, France, Spain and Canada quickly fought back with equal countermeasures, leading to a 50 percent plunge in world trade and further aggravating the depression.
During the current worldwide recession, any protectionist measures will further disrupt fragile global supply chains and aggravate the situation. All economies should work together, refrain from any new protectionist measures and maintain existing global supply chains to ensure the free flows of goods, resources, capital and technology across borders. Only in this way will another Great Depression be avoided.
中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資董事長裘國根先生向母校捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。
作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。
掃碼關注我們
人大重陽
微信號 : rdcy2013
新浪微博：@人大重陽
你“在看”我嗎？
關鍵字: 英雙語 Depression 解局
