導讀
冠狀病毒大流行引發的金融動盪，讓人們想起2008年的金融危機，在資產價格下跌和信貸緊縮等外在症狀上兩場危機十分相似，但兩者也有重要的區別。
一個關鍵區別是，危機的參與者。這一事件是一場全球銀行業危機，其核心是過度負債的銀行，正規銀行業在金融體系中所佔比重較小，因此，市場化金融則變得更加重要。大小企業都需要流動資金，尤其是當它們是供應鏈的一部分時。目前的監管工具旨在抑制銀行過度擴張，但銀行沒有填補市場化金融退卻留下的空白。為了使有生存能力的企業渡過新冠病毒危機，需要一個解決方案，來聯繫潛在貸款人與奄奄一息的企業。
首先，銀行應該是解決方案的一部分，為了進一步提高放貸能力，我們需要全球凍結銀行股息和股票回購。
其次，由於放款人可能不敢冒險，我們需要利用中央銀行的資金進行放貸，各國政府需要通過擔保計劃分擔風險，以確保經濟風險不會推給銀行或央行。一個辦法是向每個中小企業提供一筆政府擔保貸款，數額相當於它們去年繳納的稅款。這些“稅收延期貸款”可以由銀行提供，然後通過中央銀行貸款以證券化的形式再融資。
另外，我們還需要防止束縛全球供應鏈的膠水脫落。各國央行宣佈的美元互換額度至關重要，每一家央行都需要將其美元流動性引導到防止全球供應鏈瓦解的方向。
最後需要注意的是，市場金融危機需要以市場為基礎的解決方案。中央銀行要想讓流動性進入金融體系的各個角落，就必須直接瞄準最需要流動性的個人和企業。美聯儲決定進入企業債券市場，標誌著朝著正確方向邁出了大膽的一步。但要想將這“最後一英里”建設到終點的小企業，可能還需要更多的資金。
作者 | 阿古斯丁·卡斯滕斯（Agustín Carstens），國際清算銀行總經理
英文原文如下：
Bold steps to pump coronavirus rescue funds down the last mile
Op-ed by Agustín Carstens published in the Financial Times on 29 March 2020.
Agustín Carstens, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements
The financial turbulence unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic revives unhappy memories of the 2008 financial crisis. The outward symptoms of falling asset prices and tighter credit conditions are similar, but there are important differences. These differences matter, as the response now needs to go beyond the earlier playbook.
Central bank interventions to quell the crisis need to reach the individuals and businesses who are ultimately affected. The last mile of this channel is not yet in place and needs to be bridged urgently.
One key difference between the current crisis and 2008 is the set of players involved. That event was a global banking crisis with overleveraged lenders at its centre. Central banks had direct levers to address banking stress by providing funding to distressed banks or by purchasing assets.
This time, the formal banking sector is a smaller part of the financial system, while market-based finance has become more important. The heft of institutional investors and market-based intermediaries has grown, and real economy businesses have become more reliant on them. This is one reason why the strains this time are showing up in funding markets such as commercial paper, and the corporate bond market.
Businesses large and small need working capital, especially when they are part of a supply chain. A company's short-term assets, such as receivables - the money owed by other businesses in the production chain - constitute a substantial part of total assets. These receivables are matched by accounts payable on the liabilities side of the balance sheet. The interlocking chain of receivables and payables is the glue that holds businesses together in an economy, not to mention global supply chains. And businesses have increasingly turned to market-based funding for working capital, and in US dollars for global value chains.
Current supervisory tools were designed to restrain banks from overextending themselves. Right now, we have the opposite problem: banks are not filling the void left by the retreat of market-based finance. To give viable businesses a lifeline to tide them over the economic sudden stop wrought by Covid-19, a solution is needed to complete the last mile from potential lenders to those firms at the edge of the precipice.
Banks should be part of the solution, not part of the problem. Now is the time to draw on the accumulated balance sheet buffers that were built while the sun was shining. To boost lending capacity further, we need a global freeze on bank dividends and share buybacks.
However, this first step may not be enough, as lenders pull in their horns and retreat from risk-taking. That's why there needs to be a second step of enlisting the banks to lend, using central bank funding for lending schemes. Risk sharing by governments through guarantee schemes is needed to ensure that economic risks are not pushed to banks or the central bank.
One way to do it would be to provide each small and midsized company with a government-guaranteed loan equal to the amount of taxes it paid last year. These "tax deferral loans" could be provided by banks upon simple evidence of taxes having been paid last year and then be refinanced, in a securitised form, through a central bank facility.
Losses would have to be incurred by the government - treasuries have to step in. Yes, there will be errors. But only SMEs that were profitable last year would be eligible for a government loan, limiting the scope for fraud or manipulation. The administration would also be relatively straightforward, as the tax authority would be able to verify.
We also need to prevent the glue that binds global supply chains from coming unstuck. This means taking these principles global. The dollar swap lines central banks have announced are essential. But, as in the domestic context, each central bank needs to channel its dollar liquidity toward preventing global supply chains from unravelling.
Concretely, government-guaranteed loans by banks to finance receivables could also be securitised and financed by a central bank facility. "Mind the last mile" is a motto that applies worldwide, not just to the domestic economy.
A crisis in market finance needs market-based solutions. For central bank liquidity to reach the far corners of the financial system, it must directly target individuals and businesses that need it most. Otherwise, central bank actions may be just pushing on a string. The 2008 playbook has some of the necessary tools, like the commercial paper facility, but is not sufficient. The US Federal Reserve's decision to enter the corporate bond market marks a bold step in the right direction. But more may still be needed to build the last mile to the small businesses at the end of the line.
編譯 藍可琦
來源 Financial Times & BIS
審校 金天、蔣旭
監製 朱霜霜
IMF總裁：疫情下的全球經濟增長前景與國際貨幣基金組織的應對
報告 | IMF世界經濟展望：預計2020年全球GDP增速為-3%
海外之聲 | IMF總裁：危機面前全球經濟的優先事項
海外之聲｜IMF總裁：拯救生命還是挽救生計——一種虛假兩難
海外之聲 | 危機管理：健康危機與金融危機的比較
為了增進與粉絲們的互動，IMI財經觀察建立了微信交流群，歡迎大家參與。
入群方法：加群主為微信好友（微信號：imi605）,添加時備註個人姓名（實名認證）、單位、職務等信息，經群主審核後，即可被拉進群。
歡迎讀者朋友多多留言與我們交流互動，
留言可換獎品：每月累積留言點贊數最多的讀者將得到我們寄送的最新研究成果一份。
關於我們
中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所（IMI）成立於2009年12月20日，是專注於貨幣金融理論、政策與戰略研究的非營利性學術研究機構和新型專業智庫。研究所聘請了來自國內外科研院所、政府部門或金融機構的90餘位著名專家學者擔任顧問委員、學術委員和國際委員，80餘位中青年專家擔任研究員。
研究所長期聚焦國際金融、貨幣銀行、宏觀經濟、金融監管、金融科技、地方金融等領域，定期舉辦國際貨幣論壇、貨幣金融（青年）圓桌會議、大金融思想沙龍、麥金農大講壇、陶湘國際金融講堂、IMF經濟展望報告發佈會、金融科技公開課等高層次系列論壇或講座，形成了《人民幣國際化報告》《天府金融指數報告》《金融機構國際化報告》《宏觀經濟月度分析報告》等一大批具有重要理論和政策影響力的學術成果。
2018年，研究所榮獲中國人民大學優秀院屬研究機構獎，在182家參評機構中排名第一；在《智庫大數據報告（2018）》中獲評A等級，在參評的1065箇中國智庫中排名前5%。
只分享最有價值的財經視點
We only share the most valuable financial insights.
閱讀更多 國際貨幣研究所 的文章
