导读
冠状病毒大流行引发的金融动荡，让人们想起2008年的金融危机，在资产价格下跌和信贷紧缩等外在症状上两场危机十分相似，但两者也有重要的区别。
一个关键区别是，危机的参与者。这一事件是一场全球银行业危机，其核心是过度负债的银行，正规银行业在金融体系中所占比重较小，因此，市场化金融则变得更加重要。大小企业都需要流动资金，尤其是当它们是供应链的一部分时。目前的监管工具旨在抑制银行过度扩张，但银行没有填补市场化金融退却留下的空白。为了使有生存能力的企业渡过新冠病毒危机，需要一个解决方案，来联系潜在贷款人与奄奄一息的企业。
首先，银行应该是解决方案的一部分，为了进一步提高放贷能力，我们需要全球冻结银行股息和股票回购。
其次，由于放款人可能不敢冒险，我们需要利用中央银行的资金进行放贷，各国政府需要通过担保计划分担风险，以确保经济风险不会推给银行或央行。一个办法是向每个中小企业提供一笔政府担保贷款，数额相当于它们去年缴纳的税款。这些“税收延期贷款”可以由银行提供，然后通过中央银行贷款以证券化的形式再融资。
另外，我们还需要防止束缚全球供应链的胶水脱落。各国央行宣布的美元互换额度至关重要，每一家央行都需要将其美元流动性引导到防止全球供应链瓦解的方向。
最后需要注意的是，市场金融危机需要以市场为基础的解决方案。中央银行要想让流动性进入金融体系的各个角落，就必须直接瞄准最需要流动性的个人和企业。美联储决定进入企业债券市场，标志着朝着正确方向迈出了大胆的一步。但要想将这“最后一英里”建设到终点的小企业，可能还需要更多的资金。
作者 | 阿古斯丁·卡斯滕斯（Agustín Carstens），国际清算银行总经理
英文原文如下：
Bold steps to pump coronavirus rescue funds down the last mile
Op-ed by Agustín Carstens published in the Financial Times on 29 March 2020.
Agustín Carstens, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements
The financial turbulence unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic revives unhappy memories of the 2008 financial crisis. The outward symptoms of falling asset prices and tighter credit conditions are similar, but there are important differences. These differences matter, as the response now needs to go beyond the earlier playbook.
Central bank interventions to quell the crisis need to reach the individuals and businesses who are ultimately affected. The last mile of this channel is not yet in place and needs to be bridged urgently.
One key difference between the current crisis and 2008 is the set of players involved. That event was a global banking crisis with overleveraged lenders at its centre. Central banks had direct levers to address banking stress by providing funding to distressed banks or by purchasing assets.
This time, the formal banking sector is a smaller part of the financial system, while market-based finance has become more important. The heft of institutional investors and market-based intermediaries has grown, and real economy businesses have become more reliant on them. This is one reason why the strains this time are showing up in funding markets such as commercial paper, and the corporate bond market.
Businesses large and small need working capital, especially when they are part of a supply chain. A company's short-term assets, such as receivables - the money owed by other businesses in the production chain - constitute a substantial part of total assets. These receivables are matched by accounts payable on the liabilities side of the balance sheet. The interlocking chain of receivables and payables is the glue that holds businesses together in an economy, not to mention global supply chains. And businesses have increasingly turned to market-based funding for working capital, and in US dollars for global value chains.
Current supervisory tools were designed to restrain banks from overextending themselves. Right now, we have the opposite problem: banks are not filling the void left by the retreat of market-based finance. To give viable businesses a lifeline to tide them over the economic sudden stop wrought by Covid-19, a solution is needed to complete the last mile from potential lenders to those firms at the edge of the precipice.
Banks should be part of the solution, not part of the problem. Now is the time to draw on the accumulated balance sheet buffers that were built while the sun was shining. To boost lending capacity further, we need a global freeze on bank dividends and share buybacks.
However, this first step may not be enough, as lenders pull in their horns and retreat from risk-taking. That's why there needs to be a second step of enlisting the banks to lend, using central bank funding for lending schemes. Risk sharing by governments through guarantee schemes is needed to ensure that economic risks are not pushed to banks or the central bank.
One way to do it would be to provide each small and midsized company with a government-guaranteed loan equal to the amount of taxes it paid last year. These "tax deferral loans" could be provided by banks upon simple evidence of taxes having been paid last year and then be refinanced, in a securitised form, through a central bank facility.
Losses would have to be incurred by the government - treasuries have to step in. Yes, there will be errors. But only SMEs that were profitable last year would be eligible for a government loan, limiting the scope for fraud or manipulation. The administration would also be relatively straightforward, as the tax authority would be able to verify.
We also need to prevent the glue that binds global supply chains from coming unstuck. This means taking these principles global. The dollar swap lines central banks have announced are essential. But, as in the domestic context, each central bank needs to channel its dollar liquidity toward preventing global supply chains from unravelling.
Concretely, government-guaranteed loans by banks to finance receivables could also be securitised and financed by a central bank facility. "Mind the last mile" is a motto that applies worldwide, not just to the domestic economy.
A crisis in market finance needs market-based solutions. For central bank liquidity to reach the far corners of the financial system, it must directly target individuals and businesses that need it most. Otherwise, central bank actions may be just pushing on a string. The 2008 playbook has some of the necessary tools, like the commercial paper facility, but is not sufficient. The US Federal Reserve's decision to enter the corporate bond market marks a bold step in the right direction. But more may still be needed to build the last mile to the small businesses at the end of the line.
编译 蓝可琦
来源 Financial Times & BIS
审校 金天、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜
IMF总裁：疫情下的全球经济增长前景与国际货币基金组织的应对
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海外之声 | 危机管理：健康危机与金融危机的比较
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