過去幾十年，世界見證了中國經濟的飛速發展——從1978年國內生產總值只有3679億元的貧窮國家，連上新臺階，到經濟規模躍居世界第二位，再到2018年國內生產總值突破90萬億元（約13.6萬億美元）。中國對世界經濟增長貢獻率連續六年保持在30%，日益成為世界經濟的發展動力和穩定器。在全球經濟波動較大的背景下，中國經濟仍然定力十足，穩步前行。
The world has witnessed the rapid development of China over the past few decades, seeing it rise from a poor country, with a GDP of only 367.9 billion RMB in 1978, to become the world's second largest world economy. The world witnessed China break through the 90 trillion RMB GDP threshold (around US$13.6 trillion) in 2018. China's contribution to world economic growth has been maintained at 30% for six years. It has gradually become the driving force and stabilizer of the world economy. Against the changeable domestic and international situations, China's economy is still progressing at a steady pace.
▲ 這是中國鐵路瀋陽局集團有限公司長春動車運用所等待發車的高鐵列車（圖\新華社）
This is a high-speed train from China Railway Shenyang Group Co.,Ltd., March 5, 2019. (Photo\Xinhua)
最受海內外關注的話題之一就是中國經濟增長。2019年兩會上，中國政府承認面臨多年少有的複雜嚴峻形勢，下行壓力加大，將今年GDP增長的預期目標定為6%—6.5%，經濟發展的總體要求是行穩致遠。
A topic of focus is China's economic growth. The Chinese government admits that the country is now confronted with a severe and complicated situation, and downward economic pressure is rising during 2019 Two Sessions (annual sessions of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). The overall goal of economic development this year is stable and high quality growth，while the anticipated GDP growth stands at a rate of 6 to 6.5 percent.
▲ 上海，外國朋友在外灘看日出。作為中國改革開放排頭兵的上海，如今已成為現代化國際大都市。
Foreigners watch the sunrise on WaiTan. Shanghai, a leader in China's reform and opening up, has now become a modern international city.
中國經濟開始衰退了嗎？未來還會保持活力嗎？中國會如何為全球經濟的發展帶來積極影響？
Is China's economy heading towards a recession? Under such circumstances, would China secure its economic vitality in the future? How can China influence the world economy in a positive way?
這些問題出現在China Focus對15位世界知名政界、學界、新聞界和科技領軍人物的採訪中。通過訪談我們得以瞭解，巴基斯坦前總理阿齊茲如何看待中國經濟增長，為什麼中美問題專家懷特博士對中國經濟如此樂觀，為什麼英國議會上院議員戴維森勳爵認為“中國崩潰論”是荒謬的。
These were all questions China Focus posed to 15 world renowned leaders from politics, academia, media and technology. Interviews include how former Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has seen China's economy grow, why John Milligan-Whyte, Executive Chairman of the America-China Partnership Foundation, is optimistic about the future of China's economy and how Lord Neil Davidson, member of the UK House of Lords, thinks the "collapse of China" is an absurd idea.
巨大潛力
Huge Economic Potential
長久以來，中國經濟在唱衰的雜音中成長。不斷有各方人士 “唱空中國經濟”，中國“經濟硬著陸”“崩潰論”此起彼伏。事實和數據一次次讓這些奇談怪論破產。中國經濟從高速發展到高質量發展，始終遵循自己的節奏穩步前行。
For years, China's economy has been rising despite hubbub of doomsayers. Speculation includes arguments that China is doomed to failure, certain to experience a hard landing or facing for imminent economic collapse. However, facts and data have proved again and again the collapse of those nonsense. China's economic development has always followed its own pace, and has steadily transformed from fast development to high-quality development.
▲ 英國工黨影閣法律和財政國務大臣、議會上院議員戴維森勳爵
Lord Davidson, member of the UK House of Lords
對此，英國工黨影閣法律和財政國務大臣、議會上院議員戴維森勳爵告訴China Focus，一直以來他都在關注西方經濟學家和政客的觀點，他們說中國將會崩潰，可“崩潰”從未發生。過去30年，他們常說中國會從內部崩潰，中國會這樣那樣，聽起來非常可怕。但是到現在中國一直在穩步前進。中國知道自己該怎樣做，有著清晰的發展戰略，事實一次次證明中國能夠做出正確的戰略決策。戴維森勳爵強調，經濟發展難免起起落落，但從長遠來看，他相信在他有生之年，中國還會繼續發展。
Lord Neil Davison, member of the UK House of Lords, told China Focus that he has long heard Western economists and politicians predict that China will collapse. It never has. In the past 30 years it has consistently been about how China will implode, China will fail, and it's all going to be dreadful. But what's entirely clear is that China has been moving steadfastly forward. China knows where it is going, it has a strategy and over and over again, it demonstrates that it is able to make its strategies come right. Lord Davison stressed that there will be ups and downs, but at least in his lifetime, China is certain to continue its success.
哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院首任院長格雷厄姆·艾利森表示自己一直都是個樂天派，習慣樂觀地看待事物。過去十年，他對中國經濟增長持積極態度。雖然在這期間，有許多局外人說中國的增速在放緩，經濟將面臨硬著陸，國家可能遭到重創。一切皆有可能。毫無疑問，中國面臨的困難是巨大的，但中國擁有非常能幹的、領導力強的政府，這是他保持樂觀的原因之一。
Graham Allison, a political scientist and professor at John F.Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, expressed that he was an inherently optimistic person and has always been positive regarding China's growth over the course of the last 10 years. Even though many outsiders have said China's slowing down will result in a hard landing, it could result in an outright crash. Anything could happen. There's no doubt that China is facing huge obstacles. But it has a very capable government, and has shown very determined leadership.
▲ 中美合作基金會執行主席約翰·米勒-懷特
John Milliagan-Whyte, Executive Chairman of theAmerica-China Partnership Foundation
中美合作基金會執行主席約翰·米勒-懷特表示，他將一直看好中國經濟發展，除非歐洲或者美國出現經濟衰退（並影響到中國），而即便如此，中國仍將比其他國家做得更好。這是因為中國人的秉性，他們在歷史上的地位，以及中國擁有穩定的政府。但中國的成功也有賴於世界其他國家的發展。如果全球的發展失敗，那麼中國的經濟繁榮也會倒退。
John Milligan-Whyte, executive chairman of the America-China Partnership Foundation, is also optimistic about China's economic development. He says with certainty that unless the European or American economies fail, China will perform better than other countries. This is because of the nature of the Chinese people, and the nature of where they are in their history, and the fact that they have a stable government. But China's success depends upon the success of its neighbors. If its neighbors fail, China's economic success will roll back.
▲ 春華資本集團主席胡祖六
Chairman of Primavera Capital Group Hu Zuliu
談到中國經濟的發展，春華資本集團主席胡祖六說：“中國的經濟發展取得了巨大成功，人們稱其為‘中國奇蹟’”。目前，經濟有一些下行壓力，可能受到數據、消費支出、股市和貿易等因素的影響。但他認為這些影響都是短期的，中國經濟增長仍然潛力巨大，衰退風險很小。
Speaking on development, Hu Zuliu, Chairman of Primavera Capital Group and an ex-director of Goldman Sachs, says China has had phenomenal success in its economic development. It is the so-called "China miracle".
However, right now there are various downside pressures, and the economy could be affected by data, consumer spending, the stock market and trade. But such factors are only temporary, as China also has huge potential and the risk of recession remains minimal.
轉型陣痛
The Pain of Economic Transition
巨人正在改變，近幾年中國將更多的力量集中到第二產業、創新產業和第三產業，迎來新一輪的經濟發展浪潮。今年形勢將更加複雜，國外經濟不確定因素明顯增加，國內改革行至深水區，每前進一步都會面臨更大的阻力。如今中國經濟的起伏將會影響到全球經濟，中國將如何迎接挑戰？
However, the giant is changing, with more focus on secondary, innovative and tertiary industries, leading to a new wave of economic expansion. The general situation this year is more complex, with uncertainties in the world economy increasing remarkably, and China's domestic reform entering a "deep-water zone", every step China takes will be confronted with greater resistance. Now, the ups and downs in China's economy will affect the global economy, how should China face these challenges?
▲ 巴基斯坦前總理肖卡特·阿齊茲
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz
巴基斯坦前總理肖卡特·阿齊茲告訴China Focus，中國的私營領域蓬勃發展。還有中小企業，它們構成了更大規模的生產基礎。
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz told China Focus that China has a flourishing private sector and also strong small and medium enterprises, which form the base of larger production.
阿齊茲說，挑戰、變化和差異都會出現，但世界已經做好準備接受這樣一個事實：我們必須在全球範圍內高效銷售和生產東西；如果做不到，就無法生存。因為競爭永遠不會消失，不僅是傳統領域，現在就連軟性製造、設計、品牌宣傳等領域也會受到影響。
Challenges will be there, change will happen, differences will occur, but the world has mentally adjusted to the fact that we have to be globally efficient to produce and sell things. If it's not that way, you won't be able to survive. Competition will always be there and exists now in the soft parts of manufacturing, design, branding and other areas. Those areas will also be affected.
▲ 世界貿易組織前總幹事帕斯卡爾·拉米
Former Director-General of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy
世界貿易組織前總幹事帕斯卡爾·拉米則更關注中國的開放，他表示開放使中國經濟發展更為高效。中國開放了包括工業、服務業和部分農產品市場，迎來了外國經營者的競爭。這對中國和世界都有益。也正因為如此，中國的進口和出口也都增加了。
Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization, emphasized China's opening-up, saying that China opening its economy made it more efficient. It increased competition from foreign operators in areas where China agreed to open its markets, including manufacturing, some services and some parts of agriculture. Therefore, it was a good deal for both China and the world. And as a result of that, Chinese imports and exports both increased.
胡祖六分析說，過去中國的經濟增長主要依靠低端、勞動密集型製造業，出口以及在基礎設施領域的大量固定資產投資。中國長期沿用這一經濟增長模式，而且效果顯著。然而，目前這一模式面臨巨大壓力。中國必須採用新的經濟增長模式，依靠消費、服務業和創新來推動經濟發展。
Hu Zuliu's analysis shows that that past success mostly came from from low-end and labor-intensive manufacturing, exports and a very high rate of fixed investment, particularly in infrastructure. That model has worked well for China for a long period of time. However, it is facing increasing strain. China now will have to shift gears to a new growth model, including an economy more focused on consumers, services and innovation.
胡祖六強調，如果中國能夠成功地做到這一點，做出結構調整，轉變為新模式，中國經濟能夠在未來幾年內繼續穩步增長，他對此非常有信心。同時他也建議，中國應將供給側結構改革作為重點，釋放潛力，增強企業、投資者和消費者對改革的信心；政府不應過度依賴短期刺激，而應真正注重長期的改革策略——只有改革才能給中國經濟帶來持久的紅利。
Hu argued that if China can succeed in making such adjustments, and succeed in this shift towards a new model, he is confident that China can achieve sustainable and moderately fast growth for many years to come. He suggested that China should stay focused on structural reforms to unleash its potential and boost the confidence of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers in its reforms. Hu hopes the Chinese government will not become over-reliant on short-term stimulus, but really focus on more long-term strategic reforms. Only reforms can bring about long-lasting dividends for China's economy.
撰文 / China Focus團隊
圖片 / 網絡
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