譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
Powered by Stimulus & Rent/Mortgage Payments “Not Made,” US Trade Deficit Hits Record Worst Terrible Level Ever
by Wolf Richter
Not a sign of strength, but of big economic distortions.
但這並不意味著美國經濟表現強勁，而是信號失真
Consumers are spending their stimulus money and their extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits, and now the extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits, and their fraudulently obtained unemployment benefits. And they’re also spending the money they’re not paying to landlords because they’ve stopped making rent payments due to the eviction ban. And they’re spending the money they’re not paying to mortgage lenders because their mortgages are now in forbearance and they don’t have to make mortgage payments. And they’re spending on other stuff the money they’re not spending on airline tickets and restaurants and hotels. In other words, consumers are spending, but not always where they used to, and retail sales have hit a record in July and August, and much of this retailed merchandise was imported.
美國消費者正在大手大腳地花錢，這些錢包括政府給的救濟資金以及疫情期間每週額外給與的600美元失業補助，每週額外補助的失業金如今已降至300美元，外加通過欺詐手段騙來的失業救濟。此外，由於美國政府下令禁止業主將無法及時支付租金的租房者掃地出門，因此消費者把省下來的租金也用於購物了。這還沒完呢，本應定期支付的按揭貸款本息也不用急著還了，這也有寬限期了，省下來的錢呢？也被花掉了！還有吶，因疫情關係原本應被用於購買機票、外出用餐以及賓館住宿的錢也被花在買東西上了。也就是說，美國消費者還在花錢，但花錢的去處與以往不一樣了，7、8兩個月美國的零售額創下歷史新高，而大部分零售商品是進口的。
Imports of goods in August fell 4.3% year-over-year, to $201 billion (seasonally adjusted) as imports of consumer goods jumped, while imports of capital goods and industrial supplies – which is what companies buy – fell, according to the Commerce Department this morning.
根據美國商務部昨天早上公佈的數據，8月份美國貨物進口額環比去年同期下降了4.3%至2010億美元，此類數據均經過季節調整，其中消費品的進口大幅跳升，而買家一般為美國企業的資本貨物和工業製成品的進口則出現下降。
But exports of goods, which would really help the US economy – they plunged 13.3% year-over-year, to $118 billion, with nearly all major categories plunging by the double digits. And the trade deficit (exports minus imports) worsened by 13% to an all-time record worst terrible horrible $82.9 billion:
與此同時，真正有利於美國經濟的貨物出口的金額為1180億美元，環比去年同期下降了13.3%，幾乎所有大類商品的出口額均以兩位數的百分比下跌，貿易逆差（即出口額減去進口額的差值）較前期增加了13%，達到創記錄的829億美元，見下圖。
Imports of consumer goods, the largest category, rose by 2.4% in August compared to August last year, to $58 billion – that’s the power of stimulus money. Imports of food, feeds, and beverages rose 6.8%, to $13 billion.
在全部進口貨物中金額排名第一的是消費品，拜經濟刺激所賜，今年8月份的消費品進口與去年8月份相比增加了2.4%至580億美元，飲料食品的進口增加了6.8%至130億美元。
But imports of industrial supplies fell 11.3% compared to August last year, to $37.9 billion; imports of capital goods fell 4.1% to $55 billion. Imports of other goods fell 2.2% to $10 billion. And imports of the wide category that includes cars, trucks of all kinds, buses, parts, auto bodies, chassis, tires, engines, etc. fell 12% year-over-year to $28 billion.
但工業製成品的進口同比去年8月份下跌了11.3%至379億美元，資本貨物的進口下跌4.1%至550億美元，其他商品的進口下跌了2.2%至100億美元，包括小汽車、各種類型的卡車、巴士、汽車零配件、車體部件、車輛底盤、輪胎、引擎等在內的運輸機械類商品的進口同比下跌了12%至280億美元。
Exports in August fell 13.3% year-over-year. The only single-digit decliner was exports of food, feeds, and beverages -3.3% ($11 billion). Exports of all other major categories fell by the double-digits: industrial goods -11% ($39 billion); capital goods -18% ($36 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, etc. -14% ($12 billion); consumer goods -11% ($15 billion); other goods -18% ($5 billion).
8月份的出口同比下跌了13.3%，只有飲料食品類商品的出口跌幅沒有超過10%，出口額為110億美元，跌幅為3.3%。其他主要大類貨物的出口額均以兩位數的百分比下跌：工業製成品的出口下跌11%至390億美元；資本貨物的出口下跌18%至360億美元；汽車及汽車部品的出口下跌14%至120億美元；消費品的出口下跌11%至150億美元；其他商品的出口下跌18%至50億美元。
This is the disconnect, after three decades of trade policies that favored only Corporate America and its relentless focus on globalization, lower costs, and stock prices, instead of the US economy and labor. Imports in red, exports in black:
這一現象有點有悖常理，只有美國大企業才是過去三十年利好全球化的貿易政策的受益者，而大企業持續關注的只是全球化佈局、削減成本以及股價的漲跌，而不是對美國的實體經濟以及就業是否有利。下圖中，紅線為美國的進口額，黑線為出口額：
A merchandise trade deficit is a negative for the economy. And it’s a negative for the GDP calculations. It lowers GDP. The stimulus money – the portion that went overseas – stimulated the economies overseas, and these countries, steeped in their economic troubles, countered by cutting back in purchases from the US.
貨物貿易方面的逆差對美國經濟是不利的，對GDP來說也不是啥好消息，逆差會降低GDP的總量。美國政府在經濟刺激方面花的錢有一部分被花到海外了，刺激的是外國的經濟，而這些受益國因在經濟方面身陷困境，反過來削減了從美國的進口。
Many countries want to “export themselves out of trouble,” and that’s working for countries that can pull it off.
很多國家想“把自己國家的困境轉嫁出去”，而美國進口消費品大增對這些國家可謂“雪中送炭”。
But the US – with the skewed its skewed incentives and the totally globalized retail giants such as Walmart and Amazon and globalized Corporate America that doesn’t care about anything other than its stock price and low costs – wants to “import itself out of trouble.”
但在經濟刺激的道路上越走越歪的美國以及完全全球化的美國企業巨頭，如沃爾瑪、亞馬遜之類一門心思只惦記自家股價的高低以及哪便宜就從哪買的跨國企業，所想要做的是“用越來越多的進口解決自己的問題”。
And that, by definition, never works in boosting the economy, though you can boost stock prices with it. Rising imports and a record worst terrible trade deficit are not signs of strength, but of big economic distortions.
儘管這樣做可以刺激股價上漲，但從理論上講是不可能支撐實體經濟的。進口增加以及貿易赤字創紀錄並不意味著經濟強勁，而是說明美國經濟內部出大問題了。
