做為領英的活躍用戶，我一直在關注達利歐在領英上的動態。
在流言四起的時候，終於等到了達利歐的最新文章，早上在全網沒有找到譯文，於是我自己翻譯了下，供參考。
原文鏈接：
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-do-you-know-whats-true-facts-rumors-panics-ray-dalio/
我個人翻譯的中文譯稿如下
你怎麼知道什麼是真的？事實、謠言和恐慌
作者：瑞達利歐 橋水聯席首席投資官，聯席主席
中文翻譯：褚自航
我們現在正處在一個歷史上的非常時期，在這個時期，有關冠狀病毒對健康、經濟和市場影響的現實情況過於糟糕，以至於準確地去傳遞這些影響可能會引發恐慌。一些處於知道真相位置的領導人及博學的的研究者們傾向於隱瞞事實，以防止恐慌。這樣做的缺點是，當在這個他們本該把自身信譽放在第一位的時期，他們的信譽會受到損害。由於錯誤的信息，普羅大眾也沒能做他們本應該做的準備。我認為他們（知道真相的領導人和研究者們）應該披露，這個機會錯過了（I think that’s a close call的我翻譯的可能不準確。）
在某些情況下，有些人會隱瞞關於自己的不利事實，因為這些不利的事實會導致其他人遠離他們。就像其他隱瞞事實的原因一樣，這種做法即是可以理解的，但也會在現在這個最需要信譽的時候損害自身信譽，而且這樣做使得人們無法根據現實情況採取適當的行動來使局面改善。這比那些試圖防止普遍恐慌的政策制定者更糟糕，因為他們把自己的利益置於他人的利益之上，他們所在的位置（比如職業要求）應該是需要先保護他人利益優先於保護自己的利益。這種行為也會導致真相的迷失。
除此之外，社會上也會存在造謠者們，他們為了自己的利益試圖煽動恐慌。這從社交媒體上的個人到給主流出版物供稿譁眾取寵的作者。他們是最壞的，應該受到嚴厲的懲罰。
因此這些人的舉動，大眾幾乎不可能知道到底什麼是真的。
至於我和你的溝通，我保證我總是以一種完全直截了當的方式和你溝通。我將開誠佈公的分享我的所知與所考，即使我這樣做有個人風險。雖然我會犯錯，但我永遠是值得信賴的。這並不意味著我會在社交媒體上討論一切。例如，我不會透露任何關於橋水與我們客戶的關係以及我們在市場上的具體倉位。但你應該知道，如果我說了什麼，你可以相信我說的是真的。
至於我現在的看法，我相信冠狀病毒對健康、經濟和市場的影響將遠遠大於大多數人現在所傳達的信息。例如，企業的利潤損失可能高達數萬億美元，因此政府光是保護這些企業就要花掉其中很大一部分錢。此外，光是保護那些將被病毒影響的個人所要耗費的資金數額也將是巨大的。要做到這一點，財政政策制定者（即國家首腦和立法者）將不得不創造大量資金支出和分配，俗稱“直升機撒錢”（我來科普下：直升機撒錢指國家中央銀行以稅收返還或者其他名義直接發貨幣給家庭或消費者，刺激消費，降低失業率，克服通貨緊縮）。這種做法已經在許多方面正在發生了，比如特朗普總統向民眾發放1000美元支票的措施。這些錢從哪裡來？財政政策制定者是沒有這些錢的，因為他們沒法印鈔（印鈔是中央銀行的事），所以他們將不得不在放貸方沒有多少錢可貸出的時候借那麼多錢，再這個大多數人和公司都在虧損時候沒錢貸出的時候。這麼做將推高利率，利率升高對每個人來說都是更具破壞性的。屆時，各國央行將不得不決定是讓利率上升，還是發行大量資金購買這些債券。由於他們面臨這種兩難選擇，他們將別無選擇的繼續印鈔票，購買大量政府債務，以像戰爭年代那樣壓低利率。所以現在所有的目光都集中在央行身上，看他們是否會這麼做。這也是我之前提到的重大範式轉移。（我來科普下： 所謂“範式轉移”，是指一個領域裡出現新的學術成果，打破了原有的假設或者法則，從而迫使人們對本學科的很多基本理論做出根本性的修正。）
另附上英文原文供參考：
How Do You Know What’s True? Facts, Rumors and Panics
· Published on March19, 2020
Ray Dalio Influencer
Co-ChiefInvestment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, L.P.
We are now in one of thosetimes in which the realities of the situation about the health, economic, andmarket impacts of the coronavirus are so bad that conveying them accuratelycould provoke panic. Some leaders and knowledgeable researchers who are in theposition to know are inclined to withhold the facts to prevent that panic. Thedownside of doing that is that it will undermine their credibility at a timewhen them having credibility is most important and people will not do thepreparation that they should do because of the misinformation. While I thinkthey should make the disclosures, I think that’s a close call.
In other cases, some peoplehold back bad facts about themselves because the bad facts about them wouldlead others to run from them. Like the other reason to hold back facts, that isboth understandable and undermines credibility when it is needed most andprevents people from taking appropriate actions in light of the situation. It’sworse than policymakers who are trying to prevent general panic because it putstheir self-interests ahead of the interest of others that they are in aposition which should require others protections ahead of their own. It toocontributes to not knowing what’s true.
Then we have rumormongers whotry to incite panic for their own benefits. They range from individuals onsocial media to writers for prominent publications who feed sensationalism.They are the worst of the worse and should be punished severely.
As a result people ofoperating in this way, it is nearly impossible to know what is true.
As for my communication withyou, I promise that I always communicate with you in a totally straightforwardway. I will share what I know and think freely even though there are personalrisks of my doing that. While I will make mistakes, I will always betrustworthy. That doesn’t not mean that I will discuss everything here onsocial media. For example, I will not disclose anything about Bridgewater’srelationships with our clients and our positions in the markets. But you shouldknow that if I say something, you can believe that it’s true.
As for what I think now, Ibelieve that the health, economic, and market impact of the coronavirus will bemuch greater than most people are now conveying. For example, the profit lossesfor businesses are likely to be many trillions of dollars so that governmentsprotecting just the companies would cost a significant percentage of thatamount of money. Additionally, the amount of money to protect just thoseindividuals who will be devastated by the virus will also be enormous. To dothat, fiscal policymakers (I.e., heads of state and legislators) will have tocreate massive amounts of spending and distributions of money that will bedistributed as “helicopter money.” That is happening now in many ways such asPresident Trump’s $1,000 checks to people. Where will that money come from? Thefiscal policymakers don’t have that money because they don’t create it (thecentral banks create it), so they will have to borrow that enormous amount ofmoney at a time when lenders don’t have much money to lend because most peopleand companies are losing money. That will drive up interest rates, which wouldbe even more devastating for everyone. Central banks will then have to decideif they will let interest rates rise or print a lot of money to buy thosebonds. As they are faced with that choice, they will have no choice but toprint money and buy a lot of government debt to hold interest rates down theway they did in the war years. So now all eyes are on central banks to see ifthey will do that. This is the big paradigm shift that I previously spokeabout.
閱讀更多 褚自航 的文章
