How behavioural economics can explain why people are stockpiling toilet paper.
廁紙囤積行為背後的行為經濟學
One of the relatively predictable outcomes from Coronavirus — especially given likely impacts on global supply chains, travel plans, and government finances — has been the turbulence on financial markets. Few pundits, however, would have predicted that the Coronavirus epidemic would cause turbulence in the market for toilet rolls.
冠狀病毒的一個相對可預測的後果——尤其考慮到對全球供應鏈、出行計劃和政府金融等所可能造成的影響——是金融市場的波動。但很少有專家預測到它竟然會在廁紙市場中狂掀波瀾。
Shelves at Sydney's supermarkets were empty on Saturday (see photo). My first thought was that diarrhea must be a symptom of Coronavirus? But no — fever, shortness of breath, coughs, sore throats: Coronavirus causes the classic symptoms commonly associated with flu.
週六，悉尼一家超市的廁紙貨架空空如也（見照片）。我第一反應是，冠狀病毒的症狀之一肯定是腹瀉？但，並非如此。發燒、氣短、咳嗽、喉嚨痛——管狀病毒的症狀與流感常見症狀無異。
Even if people are buying toilet paper because it is a close substitute for tissues (and a roll is cheaper than tissues), why would people buy so much toilet paper in preparation for an illness that, for most healthy people, will be equivalent to a bad cold? Perhaps meticulous forward-planning is an explanation.
即使人們購買廁紙只是因為它是紙巾的最相似替代物（而且廁紙也比紙巾便宜），那麼為什麼面對這樣一個對大多數健康人只是相當於一次嚴重感冒的疾病，人們要買這麼多廁紙呢？可能事無鉅細的未雨綢繆行為是背後原因之一。
But numerous studies from behavioural economics show that most of us are prone to short-termism and procrastination — even when it comes to important, long-term decisions involving our health, pensions savings and house purchases. So it seems unlikely that anyone would plan that far ahead for one of the most mundane of purchases, especially as toilet paper is so bulky to store.
但大量行為經濟學研究都顯示，我們大多數人更傾向於短期主義和拖延——即使面對的是關於我們健康、養老儲蓄或購房等的重要、長期決策。所以，每個人都會未雨綢繆地去提前採購如此尋常的貨物，這幾乎是不可能的，尤其廁紙又那麼佔空間。
Psychologists and economists have suggested a range of explanations; a desire to control bodily functions in the face of fear of illness; the need for security and comfort in a stressful situation; preparing for shortages (Lucy, 2020; Yap, 2020). Other commentators hypothesize that loo roll mania is something like a fear of missing out, similar to the reactions seen during banking runs (Paloyo, 2020).
心理學家和經濟學家們提出了各種解釋：
面對對疾病的恐懼時所產生的一種想要控制身體機能的慾望；
在壓力環境中對安全感和慰藉感的需求；
為廁紙短缺做準備等。
其他評論者還提出這樣一種假設：廁紙搶購潮類似於一種“恐怕錯過”之心理，就像是銀行擠兌（銀行擠兌是指大量的銀行客戶同時到銀行提取現金的現象。銀行擠兌往往是由信用度下降、傳聞破產等原因導致儲戶對在銀行內的儲蓄的安全有懷疑造成的。）時的民眾反應一樣。
People worrying that they will be caught short, rush to the shops to buy as much loo roll as they can find — like savers rushing to the bank when they fear their bank will run out of money. The banking run explanation does not, however, explain why people are buying loo roll in such volumes. Also, losing a life's worth of savings to a banking run has life-changing implications in terms of poverty and hardship that are incomparable to the consequences of having no loo paper.
人們擔心廁紙可能會發生短缺，因此會衝到商店大量囤積——就像是人們害怕銀行沒錢而衝到銀行取錢一樣。但這種銀行擠兌現象並無法解釋人們為什麼會如此大量購買。另外，失去一生儲蓄，會改變一生，陷於貧窮困苦，這也並非是廁紙短缺所造成的後果可比擬的。
So what does behavioural economics and finance tell us about why someone would rush to spend excessive amounts on what is ordinarily a trivial item? The behavioural literature on speculative bubbles provides some potential explanations. One of the more colourful examples of a speculative bubble is Tulipmania: for a brief period in 1637, speculators got very excited about tulip bulbs. At the height of Tulipmania, one of the most prized bulbs, the exotic Semper Augustus, sold for around 1,000 florins — enough money to buy a smart townhouse, a small fleet of battleships or a drove of 3,000 pigs. Tulipmania is often cited as a classic example of extreme irrationality, but someone believing that they had a good chance of selling a tulip bulb for $1.1m, would not be stupid to buy it for $1m.
那麼，關於對這種不起眼之物大肆囤積的行為，行為經濟學和金融學是如何解釋的呢？關於投機泡沫的行為學文獻為我們提供了一些潛在的解釋。關於投機泡沫，其中一個最生動的例子就是“
鬱金香狂熱”——1637年的一段期間，投機者們對鬱金香球根大肆追捧。在最高潮時期，最高價的球根種類之一——異國品種 Semper Augustus，售價高達約1000弗洛林幣（1弗洛林=2先令）——這可以買一個時髦的小別墅，或一個小規模艦隊，或3000頭豬。鬱金香狂熱通常會被作為極端不理性的經典例子，但對於那些認為有很大機會可以把一個鬱金香球根賣到110萬美元的人，出價100萬美元去購買這樣一個球根，也就不能被稱之為愚蠢了。If people are prepared to spend the equivalent of millions of dollars on a tulip bulb, then why not spend 100s of dollars on loo rolls, especially if you think you can sell them for more? Toilet rolls are listed on eBay Australia at the moment — maximum price AU$1,000,000 for 600 rolls — that's AU$1,667 per roll.
如果人們願意花幾百萬美元去買一個鬱金香球根，那麼，花幾百美元買廁紙，也不是什麼不可思議的事，尤其是當你覺得你一轉手還可以賺錢時。當前，澳大利亞eBay上面也有人開始賣廁紙——最高價是600卷100萬澳元——即，每卷1667澳元。
Nonetheless, it is likely that only a minority of people are buying toilet rolls to sell them, and the fact that such large numbers of people are joining the crowd reflects our inbuilt instincts, as social animals, to follow others. Our propensity to follow others is complex. Some of our reasons for herding behind others are well-reasoned. Herding can be a type of heuristic: a decision-making short-cut that saves us time and cognitive effort. When other people's choices might be a useful source of information, we use a herding heuristic and follow others because we believe that they know more than we do.
但好像打算轉手賣掉的人只是少數，事實上，如此大量的人一起湊熱鬧，這反映了我們作為社會型動物的一種內在本能：追隨他人。我們的從眾習慣是一種情結。關於人類的從眾傾向，有一些很科學的解釋。這種傾向可以是一種“啟發法” ——所謂的“啟發法”，是指我們（比如，根據經驗等）所採用的決策捷徑，這樣可以幫助我們節省時間，且不用花大量精力去思考（但這種經驗法則為主導的思維，會導致種種認知偏見的發生，比如，覺得熟悉的就肯定是安全的。其實事實可能並非如此）。當其他人所做的決策可能是一個很有用的信息來源，我們就會採用“從眾”這一啟發法，選擇隨大流，因為我們相信他們懂得比我們自己懂得多。
（圖中的“可得性啟發”即“啟發法”中的一種類型）
When we see a long queue, outside a restaurant, for example, we may join that queue because we conclude that everyone else queuing knows how good the restaurant's food is. Other times, our reasons for following others may be less well-reasoned, driven more by peer pressure and group-think that any sort of reasoned process — for example mob violence. In his 1895 classic — The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind, French polymath Gustave le Bon explored how and why mobs form — hypothesising that mobs take on a life and personality of their own, separate and distinct from the individuals within it. Also, numerous experiments from social psychology have shown how blindly susceptible we can be to the influence of others, especially authority figures (Baddeley 2018).
比如，當我們看到一家餐廳外面大排長龍時，我們可能也會加入進去，因為我們認為，其他每個排隊的人都知道這家餐廳有多好吃。而其他時候，我們的從眾思維則並沒有充分合理的理由，而更多的是來源於“同伴壓力”和“群體思維”——比如，群體暴亂等。在法國多領域專家 Gustave Le Bon 1895年的經典著作《烏合之眾——大眾心理研究》中，他探討了暴民的形成方式與原因——他認為，暴民群體會形成自己的生命和性格，而且這一生命和性格是與其中每個個體存在區別的。另外，社會心理學領域的眾多實驗也表明，面對他人影響，尤其是權威人物的影響時，我們會多麼盲目順從。
This connects with key insights from behavioural economics about the different drivers of our decisions. Many decisions reflect a complex interplay of reason and emotion, each driven by different thinking systems. Our System 1 thinking is quick and instinctive; our System 2 thinking is slow and deliberative (Kahneman 2011). Herding probably reflects an interplay of the two (Baddeley 2018).
這也呼應了行為經濟學中對人類決策不同驅動因素的深刻理論。很多決策都反應了理智與情感之間的複雜互相作用，二者分別由不同的思維體系驅動。我們的思維體系1快速且基於直覺；思維體系2緩慢且理性。從眾思維則反應了這兩種思維體系之間的互相作用。
So if you are worrying about the empty supermarket shelves, take heart because the toilet roll market will probably stabilise. Tulipmania was short-lived and, if you can hold on, loo roll mania will be short-lived too. Alternatively, I know some people who have large stockpiles and may be willing to sell you some toilet paper for less than $1,667 a roll.
所以，如果你在擔心空空如也的貨架，那麼，無需擔心，因為廁紙市場有很大幾率會恢復穩定。上文所提到的鬱金香狂熱持續時間很短，而且，如果你能堅持住，這次的廁紙狂熱也不會持續很長時間。也或者，我知道有些人囤積了大量廁紙，或許他們會很願意用低於1667美元的價格賣給你點兒。
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