近期，國際股市震盪不堪，航班時刻表變化無常，企業則憂慮於海外供應線中斷，而此時，唐納德·特朗普總統卻看到了被新冠病毒陰影籠罩的經濟前景的光明面。
本週一，特朗普在推特上發言：“去年有3.7萬名美國人死於普通流感。平均每年2.7-7萬人感染流感。什麼都沒有關閉，生活和經濟繼續發展。目前，目前新型冠狀病毒確診病例有546例，其中22例死亡。你們好好想想！”
這樣的言論再度引發質疑。美國死於普通流感的人數統計標準非常寬泛，直接間接因流感死亡的人都會納入其中。而新冠病毒來勢洶洶，傳染率高，目前看，死亡率也大大高於普通流感，而且這是一種人類完全未知的新病毒，如果不加任何防控措施，肯定會演變成全球範圍大流行病，乃至向西班牙流感靠攏。
幾周來，他一直在淡化本次突發公共衛生事件可能出現的後果，哪怕他手下的政府機構正在吃力的各種應對。現在，他又說了，最新的報告顯示就業形勢大好，部分原因可能是因為美國人正在減少支出，把更多的消費行為放在國內。但是，沒有任何證據表明，病毒能促進就業。
近期，特朗普針對新冠病毒發表了大量言論。我們對他的相關言論做了個事實核查:
關於新冠病毒對經濟的影響
特朗普聲稱:“美國人會呆在家裡，而不是去其他國家花錢，也許這就是就業數據這麼好的原因之一。”——他上週五向媒體表示。
事實：這並非就業數據好的原因。
政府星期五發布的報告顯示，美國上個月新增了27.3萬個工作崗位，就業態勢良好，但這是發生在新冠病毒擴散到多個州之前。
而且，即便如此，報告顯示，酒店業的就業並沒有增加多少。餐飲業的僱傭人數增加了5萬多人，但大多數經濟學家將此歸因於相對暖和的天氣。現在，因為許多企業限制員工出行，航空公司已經受到重創，比如，美聯航週三宣佈暫停招聘。
疫情爆發時，美國人出國花錢的幾率會降低，這點特朗普可能沒說錯，但另一方面，來美國消費的外國人也可能會減少。
關於臨時取消的疾控中心之行
白宮聲稱:“總統今天將不再前往亞特蘭大。疾控中心從疫情爆發一開始就主動作為，充分準備，而總統不希望干涉疾控中心保護人民健康福祉的使命。”——上週五關於特朗普計劃訪問美國疾病控制與預防中心（CDC）的聲明。
事實：白宮取消行程的理由很快就和特朗普自己的說法自相矛盾，他說推遲行程是因為亞特蘭大CDC一名工作人員疑似感染了病毒，“因為這個人，他們不想讓我去。” 所以他取消行程的原因並不是要減少對CDC工作的干涉。
他說，結果這個人沒有被感染。特朗普最終還是去了CDC。
2020年3月6日，特朗普總統訪問了位於喬治亞州亞特蘭大市的疾病控制和預防中心(CDC)。照片來源：JIM WATSON—AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
關於感染症狀及應對措施
特朗普聲稱：“很多人都會得這種病，而且症狀很輕微，很快就能好轉。他們甚至不用去看醫生……所以，如果有幾千或者幾十萬人休息一下就能好，甚至去上班都可以——他們中有一些人還去上班，但也好了。”——福克斯新聞週三採訪。
此後，特朗普又聲稱：“我從來沒有說過生病的人應該去工作。這不過又是一條假新聞。”——週四所發推特。
事實：他似乎在暗示，如果新冠病毒患者症狀輕微，他們可以去上班，這與聯邦政府衛生官員給出的指導建議相悖——不管病人感覺如何，都建議居家。
美國CDC表示，確診或疑似新冠病毒感染者即使不需要住院治療，也應限制活動，“除非出門尋求醫護幫助，否則要呆在家裡”。
“不要上班、上學或去公共場所，”指導建議寫到。
關於患者病毒檢測
特朗普聲稱:“奧巴馬政府制定的檢測政策對我們的工作非常不利，幾天前，我們取消了這個政策，現在終於可以更準確、更迅速地進行檢測了。”——週三在白宮。
副總統邁克·彭斯聲稱:“上一屆政府將檢測和開發檢測產品的管轄權賦予了食品及藥物管理局（FDA）……總統週六改變了這項政策，所以現在，正如我今天早上對幾個州長所說，各州現在可以在州實驗室、大學實驗室進行冠狀病毒檢測了。”——週三在白宮。
特朗普聲稱：“現在我們有了極大的靈活性，還有很多很多檢測點，還有很多很多工作人員。要是按照奧巴馬政府的規定，這種情況是不可能出現的，我們很快就廢止了這項規定。”——週三。
事實：他們試圖把特朗普政府沒做到位的事情歸咎於前總統巴拉克·奧巴馬。
說奧巴馬時代的一項規定限制公司、大學和醫院的實驗室在緊急情況下開發和進行新冠病毒測試，這種說法是不正確的。根本沒有這樣的規定。
特朗普政府上週六廢除的政策是美國食藥局（FDA）自己制定的。此前，FDA只授權給CDC開發的一項官方檢測，今後，各實驗室能夠自行開發使用新冠病毒診斷檢測，而無需等FDA審核。
特朗普指的可能是奧巴馬執政期間，FDA起草的一份針對實驗室開發檢測的指導意見，實驗室開發檢測傳統上不受FDA監管，這份指導意見只是呼籲加強對其監管，但該指導意見並未生效，而且即使生效了，也不適用像新冠病毒這樣的突發公共衛生事件。
相關報道：新冠病毒蔓延，特朗普政府的預算削減或成大問題
關於疫苗開發
特朗普聲稱：“我們正在研發疫苗。或許會有治癒的方法，但我們正在討論疫苗，他們進展非常快，所有制藥公司，他們都進展很快。”——週一言論。
特朗普聲稱：美國可能“相對很快”就會有疫苗以及“更快就能讓你好轉的東西。”——北卡羅來納州星期一集會。
事實：這種說法有誤導性，聯邦公共衛生官員和科學家的聲明要謹慎得多。他們說，疫苗最快也需要一年多的時間，目前還沒有針對新冠病毒的特殊療法。衛生部門根本沒打算在短期內找到“治癒”方法，他們的重點是幫助人們從一開始就免受感染。
實際情況：世界部分地區已經開始對新冠病毒患者進行研究，看看某些抗病毒藥物是否有助於治療感染。
到今天，還沒有任何一種治療方法得到證實。中國科學家一直在試用抗艾滋病組合藥物治療新冠病毒，還嘗試了一種名為瑞德西韋的實驗性藥物，瑞德西韋因抗擊埃博拉病毒研發，目前仍處於臨床測試階段。美國內布拉斯加大學醫學中心也開始對一些從日本郵輪上撤離的新冠病毒受感染美國人試用瑞德西韋。
目前還不清楚什麼時候才能證明這些藥物是否有效。許多病人不需要任何治療就能康復。醫療界目前要解決的最大的問題是如何幫助重症患者。
關於美國應對新冠病毒的準備工作
特朗普聲明：美國“目前為止，準備工作世界排名第一”——北卡羅來納州集會。
事實：不是“目前為止”。
他指的是約翰霍普金斯大學健康安全中心的一份報告，其專家週一表示，在多個防範水平大致相當的高收入國家中，美國的“得分”最高，領先了幾分。
但該報告的總體結論卻是：“沒有任何一個國家對區域或全球範圍的大流行病做好了應對準備，”該報告作者之一，霍普金斯大學的詹妮弗·諾佐警告道。
她補充說，從這份報告來看，一個國家的得分比另一個國家高2分，很難說它的情況會好狠多。
在美國，最令人擔憂的是人們無法得到醫療服務。“如果公眾擔憂醫療費用而不去就醫，病患就可能呆在家裡，導致他人被感染，這就很糟糕了。”她說。（財富中文網）
As the stock market convulses, airline schedules buckle and businesses worry their overseas supply lines will snap, President Donald Trump is looking on the sunny side of an economy clouded by the coronavirus.
For several weeks he's played down the consequences of the public health emergency even as his agencies scramble to manage it. Now he's suggesting that a robust jobs report might be explained in part by the prospect that Americans are hunkering down and focusing more of their spending in their own country. There's no evidence that the virus has juiced jobs.
Trump's plentiful and sometimes inaccurate comments on the outbreak this past week prompted the chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., to suggest that Trump and Vice President Mike Pence stand back and “let the experts do the talking.” Trump paid that advice no heed.
On the economic impact of coronavirus
Trump claim: “We're going to have Americans staying home instead of going and spending the money in other countries. And maybe that's one of the reasons the job numbers are so good." — remarks to the press Friday.
The Facts: That is not one of the reasons the job numbers are so good.
The government’s report Friday showing employers added a healthy 273,000 jobs last month was compiled before the coronavirus had spread through multiple states.
Even so, the report showed employment at hotels was flat. Restaurant hiring jumped by more than 50,000, but most economists attributed that to relatively warm weather. Now, with many businesses restricting their employees’ travel, airlines are already getting hit: United Airlines said Wednesday it has instituted a hiring freeze.
Trump is probably correct that fewer Americans will go abroad and spend money while the outbreak is active. The flip side is that fewer foreigners may come to the U.S. and spend their money here.
On a temporarily canceled trip to the CDC
White House claim: “The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today. The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC’s mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency.” — statement Friday about Trump's planned visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Facts: Actually, the White House rationale for canceling the trip was contradicted a short time later by Trump, who said he postponed because a CDC employee in Atlanta was thought to have contracted the infectious disease and “because of the one person, they didn't want me going.” It was not about staying out of the way of CDC employees,
He said it turned out that the person was not infected. He visited the CDC after all.
On the coronavirus outbreak symptoms and how the American people should prepare
Trump claim: “A lot of people will have this, and it's very mild. They will get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor ... So, if we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.” – Fox News interview Wednesday.
Trump claim: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work. This is just more Fake News." — tweet Thursday.
The Facts: He seems to be suggesting that people with COVID-19 can go to work if they have minor symptoms, contradicting the guidance of his federal health officials. Regardless of how sick people may or may not feel, people are advised to stay home.
The CDC states that people with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 who do not need hospitalization should restrict their activities and “stay home except to get medical care.”
“Do not go to work, school or public areas," it states.
On developing tests for coronavirus in patients
Trump claim: “The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion.” — Wednesday at the White House.
Vice President Mike Pence claim: “The last administration asserted FDA jurisdiction over testing and the development of tests like this. ... The president changed that on Saturday so that now, as I spoke to several governors this morning, the states now have the ability to actually conduct the coronavirus test in state labs, university laboratories.” — Wednesday at the White House.
Trump claim: “And now we have tremendous flexibility. Many, many more sites. Many, many more people. And you couldn’t have had that under the Obama rule, and we ended that rule very quickly.” — Wednesday.
The Facts: They're trying to blame Barack Obama for something his administration didn't do.
It’s not true that an Obama-era rule limited laboratories run by companies, universities and hospitals from developing and running tests for the coronavirus during an emergency. No such regulation existed.
The Trump administration’s action last Saturday only undid a policy that its own Food and Drug Administration put in place. The new action lets labs develop and use coronavirus diagnostic tests before the agency reviews them. Previously, the FDA had only authorized use of a government test developed by the CDC.
FDA guidance drafted during the Obama administration called for tighter regulation of so-called laboratory-developed tests, a market traditionally not overseen by the agency. But that guidance was not brought into effect. Even if it had been, it would not have applied to public health emergencies such as the coronavirus.
Related: Trump administration budget cuts could become a major problem as coronavirus spreads
On the development of a coronavirus vaccine
Trump claim: “We're talking about a vaccine. Maybe a cure is possible. But we're talking about a vaccine and they're moving along very quickly, all of the pharmaceutical companies, are moving along very quickly.” — remarks Monday.
Trump claim: The U.S. may have a vaccine “relatively soon” and “something that makes you feel better ... sooner." — North Carolina rally Monday.
The Facts: That's misleading, given the far more cautious pronouncements of federal public health officials and scientists. They say a vaccine is probably more than a year away at best and there are no special treatments for COVID-19. The notion of a quick “cure” is not in their vocabulary as they focus on trying to help people avoid getting the disease in the first place.
What’s actually happening: Studies have begun in COVID-19 patients in parts of the world to see if certain antiviral medications could help treat the infection.
Today, there are no proven treatments. In China, scientists have been testing a combination of HIV drugs against the new coronavirus, as well as an experimental drug named remdesivir that was in development to fight Ebola. In the U.S., the University of Nebraska Medical Center also began testing remdesivir in some Americans who were found to have COVID-19 after being evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan.
It's not known how soon such studies will answer whether any of the drugs help. And many patients recover without needing any treatment. The biggest concern is how to help the fraction who become severely ill.
On the U.S.'s preparedness for coronavirus outbreak
Trump claim: The U.S. is “ranked by far No. 1 in the world for preparedness” — North Carolina rally.
The Facts: Not “by far.”
He's referring to a report coauthored by Johns Hopkins Centers for Health Security. Hopkins experts on Monday said the U.S. got a “grade” that overall was highest by a few points among a variety of high-income countries that are all at about the same level of preparedness.
But the report’s overall finding: “No country is fully prepared for an epidemic or pandemic,” cautioned Hopkins’ Jennifer Nuzzo, who coauthored the report.
It’s difficult to say from the report that a country that scores two points higher than another is going to fare much better, she added.
In the U.S., the biggest worry is access to that health care. “If fear of the cost of health care is a deterrent, that could create a bad situation where people stay at home, potentially infecting others," she said.
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