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今日市場在關稅、社保以及民企未來三大影響企業經營的事情上有了明確的方案，消除了投資者最擔心的不確定性，從而較好地改善了投資情緒，令市場氣氛較為活躍，五大指數全面飄紅，上證指數一度衝上了2700點大關。
一是美國方面明確自9月24日零時起，對我國2000億美元的出口產品增加10%的關稅。這個基數雖然沒變，但是加稅的幅度受到美國國內反對意見的壓制，有所下調，從原來的加稅15%改為10%，少加了5%。這個可以說是好於預期的。之後，中國方面也給出了反制措施，對從美國進口的600億美元產品也給出了加稅要求。
雖然增加關稅對於雙方的企業來說都不是好事，但是畢竟雙方加稅的幅度有所調整，並且也明確了日期。考慮到匯率的漲跌的也很容易達到5%左右的水平，因此這次美方的加稅方案，最終帶來的實際影響，即對出口產品的價格影響估計只有5%左右了。
而這次我方的反制措施基本是對等的，雖然涉及的金額少一些，不過，估計是考慮到匯率方面的影響，在稅率方面也表現出了一定的靈活性，即明確表示，加徵5%或10%的關稅，力度也有所下降。這樣一些需要購進原料的企業成本增加的幅度也是小於預期的，這些都是雙方博弈後的積極成果。
而在進出口政策方面，李總理主持召開的國常會確定，今年將進出口的整體通關速度以及監管證件再壓縮三分之一，並降低企業的通關費用，總之，通過政府層面提高效率、優化管理，為企業正常經常提供更好的監管環境。
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對企業與投資者最擔心的社保轉稅局徵收後，企業成本有可能增加的問題，這次會議明確提出，各地要確保現有徵收政策不變，對歷史形成的社保費率徵繳不一致的情況，嚴禁自行集中清繳。這意味著企業的人工成本短期內不會因政策變動出現大幅的增加。
第三，對於吳小平之前發佈民營經濟完成幫助國有企業發展的歷史使命後可以退出舞臺的說法，令市場對負擔超過8成就業的民營企業退出後對經濟發展帶來衝擊的擔心，不但國內重要的媒體都發表了反對的聲音，今日鶴副總理在上海也明確指出：堅持對國有和民營經濟一視同仁，對大中小企業平等對待、加強知識產權保護、努力為企業發展創造良好環境。
這樣3個影響廣泛的事情消除了不確實性後，估計對改善投資者情緒有很大好處。尤其是關稅之事，雖然雙方還有後手，但是從這兩輪交手的情況來看，雙方都有降級趨緩的要求。
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而從行業來看，今日來自銀行業的消息著實令人吃驚，原來銀行也是“大地主”！證券日報稱，上市銀行手中擁有原值9000億元的“涉房固定資產”，但是在報表中只記為約6227億元。
如果此說屬實，銀行類個股的估值真是極大地低估了，畢竟所有上市銀行2017年全年的淨利潤也就1.7萬億元！感覺銀行真能哭窮啊，我們國家還上下一條心去槓桿，甚至不惜暴力火速去槓桿，為銀行防範風險，結果人家才是不折不扣家底最為殷實的、最沒風險的行業。坐擁四萬億元，2%的壞賬算個啥？
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港股方面，受騰訊連續第八次出手回購股份的拉動，恆生指數也開始回穩。因此今日成交量最大的場內基金中，投資香港股市的指數類基金表現較好，漲幅大多超過了0.7%。表現最好的當屬倍受鼓舞的創業板，漲幅均在1.5%以上。此外，MCSI指數類基金也不錯，畢竟這類指數有外援進場。
不過，從周線上來看，目前走勢仍不樂觀，所以投資者最好不要對此輪反彈抱有太高的期望，除非有放量以及進一步的政策利好。
雙語閱讀~
Three major uncertainties are eliminated,
and the market rebounds lightly
Today's market has a clear plan for tariffs, social security and private enterprises' future three major business operations, which eliminates the most worrying uncertainty of investors, thus improving investment sentiment and making the market more active. The index was all red, and the Shanghai Composite Index once rushed to the 2700 mark.
First, the United States clearly stated that it will leave at 0:00 on September 24 and increase its tariff by 10% on China's 200 billion US dollars in exports. Although the base has not changed, the scope of the tax increase has been suppressed by the domestic opposition. It has been reduced from 15% to 10%, plus 5%. This can be said to be better than expected. Later, the Chinese side subsequently gave counter-measures and imposed tax increases on the $60 billion imported from the United States.
Although increasing tariffs is not a good thing for both companies, the extent of the tax increase has been adjusted and the date has been clarified. Considering the rise and fall of the exchange rate, it is easy to reach a level of about 5%. Therefore, the actual impact of the US tax increase program, that is, the impact on the price of export products is estimated to be only about 5%.
This time, our counter-measures are basically equal. Although the amount involved is less, the estimate is based on the impact of the exchange rate. It also shows some flexibility in terms of tax rate, that is, it is clearly stated that The levy of 5% or 10% has also declined. The increase in the cost of such enterprises that need to purchase raw materials is also less than expected, which are positive factors after the game between the two sides.
In terms of import and export policies, the National Assembly, chaired by Premier Li, determined that this year, the overall customs clearance speed and regulatory documents for import and export will be reduced by one-third, and the customs clearance costs of enterprises will be reduced. In short, efficiency and optimization will be improved through the government level. Management provides a better regulatory environment for companies to regularly and normally.
After the levy of the social security taxation bureau that enterprises and investors are most worried about, the cost of the enterprise may increase. This meeting must clearly state that all localities must ensure that the existing levy policy remains unchanged, and the social security rate formed by history is inconsistent. In the case of the situation, it is strictly forbidden to collect it by itself This means that the labor costs of enterprises will not increase significantly due to policy changes in the short term.
Thirdly, the claim that Wu Xiaoping can withdraw from the stage after releasing the historical mission of helping the development of state-owned enterprises has made the market worry about the impact on the economic development after the withdrawal of private enterprises with more than 80% of employment, not only domestically important. The media has expressed their opposition. Today, Vice Premier He also clearly pointed out in Shanghai: insist on treating the state-owned and private economy equally, treating the large and medium-sized enterprises equally, strengthening intellectual property protection, and striving to create a favorable environment for enterprise development.
After the three influential things have eliminated the uncertainty, it is estimated that it will greatly improve the investor's sentiment. In particular, the tariffs, although the two sides still have a backhand, but from the situation of the two rounds of fighting, both sides have the requirement to slow down and slow down.
From the industry point of view, today's news from the banking industry is really amazing, the original bank is also a "big landlord"! According to the Securities Daily, listed banks have “90% fixed assets” in the hands of the original value of 900 billion yuan, but only about 622.7 billion yuan in the statement. However, according to conservative estimates, the price of this asset will also reach 45,000 yuan, so its actual net asset value is less than about 4 trillion yuan!
If this is true, the valuation of bank stocks is really underestimated. After all, the net profit of all listed banks in 2017 is 1.7 trillion yuan! I feel that the bank can really cry, and our country is still leveraging the whole world, even at the expense of violent tempering, to prevent risks for banks. As a result, people are the most honest and risk-free industries. Sitting on four trillion yuan, 2% of bad debts count?
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index also began to stabilize as Tencent’s eighth consecutive repurchase of shares. Therefore, among the floor funds with the largest volume of transactions today, index funds investing in the Hong Kong stock market performed better, with the increase exceeding 0.7%. The best performers were the most encouraged GEM, which rose by more than 1.5%. In addition, MCSI index funds are also good, after all, such indicators have foreign aid to enter the market.
However, from the weekly point of view, the current trend is still not optimistic, so investors are best not to have too high expectations for this round of rebound, unless there is heavy volume and further policy benefits.
親愛的讀者：
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