李顯龍:若出現兩個情況,將來輕微病者或不必住院

針對新冠病毒肺炎疫情,新加坡總理李顯龍首次發表總理聲明。


他說:“如果確診病例持續增加,我們必須重新審視當前的策略。如果病毒已經擴散,追蹤密切接觸者的作用微乎其微。如果我們繼續讓所有可疑病例住院隔離,醫院肯定無力支撐。”


李顯龍:若出現兩個情況,將來輕微病者或不必住院


他也說:“到了那時,如果新冠肺炎的致死率維持0.2%低水平,就如流感(0.1%),那麼我們的策略就必須調整。輕微症狀病人看家庭醫生,在家休養,讓醫院集中資源照顧最有需要的——老人、小孩和那些有併發症的病人。”


他強調:“目前我們還沒走到那一步。將來可能會走到那一步,也可能不會。不過,我們要先預想到那個可能性,並且先做好接下來幾步的策劃。我現在跟大家提出這些可能性,讓我們大家都做好心理準備。”


李顯龍也說,我每年春節在總統府辦基層領袖的慰勞會,今年本來是明晚舉辦的,我把它延後了。我們不是第一次把DORSCON調高到橙色,我們在2009年H1N1時也做過。因此,大家不必驚慌。我們不會封城,也不會強制所有人隔離在家不準出門。我們物資儲存足夠,不必驚慌囤貨。


他說,接下來,新加坡政府會繼續追蹤密切接觸者,將他們隔離。但是,他相信,接下來幾天會有更多不明感染源的確診病例出現。


如果局勢發生改變,到時政府就會調整策略。


新加坡眼評論:

一些網友對新加坡政府採取的策略很不認同,說是“怨聲載道”也不為過,尤其是熟悉中國的網友。這並不讓人感到意外。

首先,人們對新冠病毒認識尚未統一。其次,從目前看來,湖北疫情最嚴重,傷亡最高,出了湖北,中國境內其他地方傷亡低得多,病毒的殺傷力似乎是變化的。再次,疫情應對肯定是根據實際情況制定的——疫情的輕重、當地的自然和社會環境、當地的社會承受力等等。


熟悉中國的網友,見到的中國的情況,尤其是疫區的情況,他們的認知和感知肯定與其他人不一樣,因此,他們期待見到的,是中國採取的應對策略。對新加坡政府來說,很顯然在現階段並不考慮這個策略,原因顯而易見。事物總是存在雙面性甚至多面性。決策不可能面面俱到,一定有所取捨,符合大部分人的利益。既然有取捨,一定有喜有怨,有贊有貶。


新加坡政府的決策,當然可以質疑,當然更可以批評。但是,要注意的是,還有沉默的一群,這個沉默的一群不一定也持質疑和批評的態度。否則,人命關天,等死不成?兔子急了還會咬人,早就造反了。政府終究負責的對象是自己的人民。沒有任何民選的政府會置人民的利益於不顧,尤其大選腳步不遠。給這個政府的決策評分的,是選票。給這個政權的良知評分的,是歷史。發聲是人民的權利,提出建議是人民的義務。


在非常時期,情緒需要宣洩,政府捱罵,十分正常。但宣洩之餘,我們也得提醒自己,在危機中,社會需要的是冷靜和團結,不是口業和撕裂。



(中文版)


兩個星期前,新加坡發現了第一起新型冠狀病毒確診病例。政府成立了跨部門工作小組,統籌防疫措施。這裡我要跟大家談一談我對本地局勢的看法,同時,也要告訴大家,我們要如何同心協力,共同抗炎。


我們在應對傳染病疫情方面已經更有把握。因為從十七年前爆發的 SARS 疫情,我們吸取到非常寶貴的經驗。從那個時候開始,我們就做了許多準備,嚴陣以待。而且現在醫療科技發達,能夠更有效的治療病患。


這個新型冠狀病毒和 SARS 病毒有類似的地方,也有不同之處。新病毒的致命率比 SARS 病毒來得低。但是新病毒的傳染力或許比 SARS 病毒強。而且,患者在沒有出現症狀的潛伏期就可能會傳播病毒。造成防止傳播的工作更加艱鉅。因此當我們注意到有源頭不明的病例,我們就決定把 DORSCON 警戒級別從黃色調高到橙色。


警戒級別是橙色的話,我們必須做的防範措施就包括:建議每個人都要每天量體溫兩次,注意自己的健康情況。大型活動也暫時取消,以免病毒擴散。但是政府並沒有規定大家一定要留在家裡,不準出門。防範措施多一些,活動少一些,不過大家還是可以照常生活。


所以請大家不要慌張,不要囤積食物及日常用品。我們有足夠的柴米油鹽。快熟面、罐裝食品和連衛生紙也貨源充足。但如果大家都去超市搶購的話,那就肯定無法滿足需求了。


局勢是不停的演變。在追蹤同確診病例有密切接觸的人時,可能就會發現新病例。根據情況,我們會採取適當的應對措施,例如暫時關閉某所學校或工作場所。最重要的就是保障大家的健康和安全。


應該做的,能夠做的,政府一定會去做,我們也需要大家配合,維持自己的個人衛生和健康,萬眾一心,消滅病毒。請記得經常用肥皂洗手, 避免觸摸自己的臉或眼睛。在這段時間,請記得量體溫。如果身體不舒服, 請立刻去看醫生。但是,如果沒有生病,請大家做好防範,繼續過正常的生活。


雖然現在警戒級別是橙色,但我們都希望國家和人民的生活可以早日回到以往的情況。不過,在我看來,按照當前的疫情,這肯定還需要一段時間。因此我們必須做好心理準備,隨時應對任何新狀況。


其實,最大的考驗不是病毒的問題,而是我們如何維護我國的社會凝聚力,做好心理防備,共同抗炎。面對新病毒的惶恐,我能夠理解。但是如果變成驚慌失措,這無濟於事。希望大家可以用平常心對待,不用急著大量囤積生活必需品,請讓其他人也有機會購買他們所需要的東西。也不要輕易的相信假新聞,或上傳沒有確認過的消息。


要戰勝這個病毒,就需要全國人民萬眾一心。我很欣慰,也有不少國人發揮愛心,互相關懷。例如:幫助被隔離的同學送三餐、把口罩送給陌生人。這種雪中送炭的精神值得表揚。我也要感謝我們的醫療團隊無微不至細心照顧病人。在他們專業的照料下,已經有幾位患者康復出院了。


只要大家團結一致,處變不驚,我有信心,在控制疫情方面,我們可以取得成功。


(英文版)

We have faced the new coronavirus (nCoV) situation for about two weeks now.


The Ministerial Task Force, advised by DPM Heng Swee Keat, has been leading the Government’s response to this outbreak. They have been dealing with new developments every day, and holding regular press briefings to keep Singaporeans informed every step of the way. Today, I want to speak to you directly, to explain where we are, and what may lie ahead.


We went through SARS 17 years ago, so we are much better prepared to deal with nCoV this time. Practically, we have stockpiled adequate supplies of masks and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). We have expanded and upgraded our medical facilities, including the new National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID). We have more advanced research capabilities to study the virus. We have more well trained doctors and nurses to deal with this situation. We are psychologically better prepared too. Singaporeans know what to expect, and how to react. Most importantly, having overcome SARS once, we know that we can pull through this too.


The new coronavirus is similar to SARS, but with two important differences. First, the new virus is more infectious than SARS. Therefore it is harder to stop it from spreading. Second, the new virus is much less dangerous than SARS. About 10 per cent of those who caught SARS died. With the new virus, outside of Hubei province, the mortality rate is so far only 0.2 per cent. In comparison, seasonal influenza has a death rate of 0.1 per cent. So in terms of mortality, the new virus is much closer to influenza than SARS.


But the situation is still evolving. Every day brings new developments, and we have to respond promptly and dynamically. So far, most of our cases have either been imported from China, or can be traced to imported cases. When we discover them, we have isolated the patients, done contact tracing and quarantined close contacts. This has contained the spread and helped stamp out several local clusters. But in the last few days, we have seen some cases which cannot be traced to the source of infection. These worried us, because it showed that the virus is probably already circulating in our own population. This is why we raised the DORSCON to Orange yesterday, and are stepping up measures. We are reducing mingling in schools. We are tightening up access to our hospitals. We are taking extra precautions at large public events. I have already postponed my Chinese New Year Istana Garden Party for grassroots leaders, which was to be held tomorrow. We have raised DORSCON to Orange before. You may not remember, but this was in 2009, for the H1N1 swine flu. So there is no need to panic. We are not locking down the city or confining everybody to stay at home. We have ample supplies, so there is no need to stock up with instant noodles, tinned food, or toilet paper, as some people did yesterday.


Whatever the situation, we can each do our part. One, observe personal hygiene – wash your hands often, and avoid touching your eyes or face unnecessarily. Two, take your temperature twice daily. And three, if you are not well, please avoid crowded places and see a doctor immediately. These simple steps do not take much effort, but if we all do them, they will go a long way towards containing the spread of the virus.


Right now, we are continuing to do contact tracing and to quarantine close contacts. But I expect to see more cases with no known contacts in the coming days.


If the numbers keep growing, at some point we will have to reconsider our strategy. If the virus is widespread, it is futile to try to trace every contact. If we still hospitalise and isolate every suspect case, our hospitals will be overwhelmed. At that point, provided that the fatality rate stays low like flu, we should shift our approach. Encourage those who only have mild symptoms to see their family GP, and rest at home instead of going to the hospital, and let hospitals and healthcare workers focus on the most vulnerable patients – the elderly, young children, and those with medical complications.


We are not at that point yet. It may or may not happen, but we are thinking ahead and anticipating the next few steps. And I am sharing these possibilities with you, so that we are all mentally prepared for what may come.


I am confident of the medical outcome of this outbreak. Most Singaporeans should remain well, and of those who get ill most should expect to recover. Among those who have been hospitalised so far, most are stable or improving. Several have already recovered and been discharged, although a few remain in critical condition.


But the real test is to our social cohesion and psychological resilience. Fear and anxiety are natural human reactions. We all want to protect ourselves and our families from what is still a new and unknown disease. But fear can do more harm than the virus itself. It can make us panic, or do things which make matters worse, like circulating rumours online, hoarding facemasks or food, or blaming particular groups for the outbreak. We should take courage and see through this stressful time together.


That is in fact what many Singaporeans are doing. Grassroots leaders and Team Nila volunteers have stepped forward to help distribute masks to households. University students are delivering food daily to schoolmates confined to their dorms on leave of absence. Healthcare workers are on the front line, treating patients in hospitals and clinics and helping them get well again. Business federations, unions, public transport workers, are going the extra mile to maintain services, take care of workers, and keep Singapore running. They are inspirations to all of us. This is what it means to be Singaporean. This is who we are.


Let us stay united and resolute in this new coronavirus outbreak. Take sensible precautions, help one another, stay calm, and carry on with our lives.

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