What can we learn from past pandemic episodes?
我們可以從過去的傳染病疫情中學到什麼？
An outbreak of novel coronavirus, identified in Wuhan (China), has been at the topline of news this week. In this week’s chart, we take a closer look at some past episodes of health outbreaks to draw some insights on the possible impacts on air travel.
本週，武漢爆發的新冠病毒疫情佔領了各大新聞媒體頭條，本週周線圖中，我們仔細回顧過去爆發的幾起傳染病疫情，看看疫情可能對航空運輸業造成的影響。
History shows that SARS has been the most serious epidemic impacting traffic volumes in the recent period. At the height of the outbreak (May 2003), monthly RPKs of Asia-Pacific airlines were c.35% lower than their pre-crisis levels. Overall in 2003, the loss of confidence and fears of global spread impacted both business and leisure travel to, from and within the region, resulting in Asia-Pacific airlines losing 8% of annual RPKs and $6 billion of revenues.
歷史數據顯示SARS是所顯示週期內對運輸週轉量影響最大的傳染病。2003年非典全面爆發時，亞太地區航司月度收入客公里值較疫情爆發前下降35%。整個2003年，對疫情傳染的恐懼和消費信心的喪失影響亞太地區商業和休閒旅行，造成亞太地區航空公司年收入客公里下降8%，收入損失達60億美元。
On the other hand, the 2005 and 2013 episodes of avian flu had a much milder and short-lived impact and air travel rebounded quickly as the fears of global spread of virus eased. In the most recent episode of MERS Flu, which was focused more on a single country, the initial impact was a sharp slowdown, i.e. a 12% decline in monthly RPKs to, from and within South Korea in the first month of the outbreak. However, air travel volumes began to recover after two months and had returned to pre-outbreak levels within 6 months.
另一方面，2005年和2013年禽流感疫情對航空運輸業影響較小且短暫，病毒傳播得到控制後，航空運輸量快速回升。最近的中東呼吸綜合症疫情更主要集中爆發在一個國家，最初造成周轉量快速下降，例如，疫情爆發後的一個月內，韓國國內和國際旅客運輸的收入客公里值下降12%，兩個月後開始恢復，六個月內恢復至疫情爆發前的水平。
In the past, the airline industry has proven resilient to shocks, including pandemics, as today’s chart shows. Even in the outbreak of SARS, monthly international passenger traffic returned to its pre-crisis level within nine months. Nevertheless, the very strong growth of the Chinese air transport market over recent years means that an additional 450 million passengers fly to from and within China per year compared with a decade ago. The timing of this outbreak also coincides with New Year celebrations and China’s busiest travel season. While there are risks that this outbreak could cause a sizeable disruption, history indicates that any effect on air transport would be temporary.
正如上圖所示，以前的傳染病等外部影響來臨時，航空運輸業可以快速恢復，即便是非典時期，國際旅客運輸也在九個月內恢復到之前的水平。然而，正是由於近年來中國航空運輸市場的發展，年旅客運輸量較十年前增加了4.5億人次。本次疫情爆發正值中國春運，雖然疫情爆發可能對航空運輸產生巨大沖擊，但歷史表明對航空運輸業的任何影響都是暫時的
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