What can we learn from past pandemic episodes?
我们可以从过去的传染病疫情中学到什么？
An outbreak of novel coronavirus, identified in Wuhan (China), has been at the topline of news this week. In this week’s chart, we take a closer look at some past episodes of health outbreaks to draw some insights on the possible impacts on air travel.
本周，武汉爆发的新冠病毒疫情占领了各大新闻媒体头条，本周周线图中，我们仔细回顾过去爆发的几起传染病疫情，看看疫情可能对航空运输业造成的影响。
History shows that SARS has been the most serious epidemic impacting traffic volumes in the recent period. At the height of the outbreak (May 2003), monthly RPKs of Asia-Pacific airlines were c.35% lower than their pre-crisis levels. Overall in 2003, the loss of confidence and fears of global spread impacted both business and leisure travel to, from and within the region, resulting in Asia-Pacific airlines losing 8% of annual RPKs and $6 billion of revenues.
历史数据显示SARS是所显示周期内对运输周转量影响最大的传染病。2003年非典全面爆发时，亚太地区航司月度收入客公里值较疫情爆发前下降35%。整个2003年，对疫情传染的恐惧和消费信心的丧失影响亚太地区商业和休闲旅行，造成亚太地区航空公司年收入客公里下降8%，收入损失达60亿美元。
On the other hand, the 2005 and 2013 episodes of avian flu had a much milder and short-lived impact and air travel rebounded quickly as the fears of global spread of virus eased. In the most recent episode of MERS Flu, which was focused more on a single country, the initial impact was a sharp slowdown, i.e. a 12% decline in monthly RPKs to, from and within South Korea in the first month of the outbreak. However, air travel volumes began to recover after two months and had returned to pre-outbreak levels within 6 months.
另一方面，2005年和2013年禽流感疫情对航空运输业影响较小且短暂，病毒传播得到控制后，航空运输量快速回升。最近的中东呼吸综合症疫情更主要集中爆发在一个国家，最初造成周转量快速下降，例如，疫情爆发后的一个月内，韩国国内和国际旅客运输的收入客公里值下降12%，两个月后开始恢复，六个月内恢复至疫情爆发前的水平。
In the past, the airline industry has proven resilient to shocks, including pandemics, as today’s chart shows. Even in the outbreak of SARS, monthly international passenger traffic returned to its pre-crisis level within nine months. Nevertheless, the very strong growth of the Chinese air transport market over recent years means that an additional 450 million passengers fly to from and within China per year compared with a decade ago. The timing of this outbreak also coincides with New Year celebrations and China’s busiest travel season. While there are risks that this outbreak could cause a sizeable disruption, history indicates that any effect on air transport would be temporary.
正如上图所示，以前的传染病等外部影响来临时，航空运输业可以快速恢复，即便是非典时期，国际旅客运输也在九个月内恢复到之前的水平。然而，正是由于近年来中国航空运输市场的发展，年旅客运输量较十年前增加了4.5亿人次。本次疫情爆发正值中国春运，虽然疫情爆发可能对航空运输产生巨大冲击，但历史表明对航空运输业的任何影响都是暂时的
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