中國疫情對美國經濟有利?諾獎得主批美商務部長不僅壞而且蠢

中國發生的新型冠狀病毒疫情,“將有助於加速工作崗位迴流北美,其中可能部分迴流美國,部分則流向墨西哥。”

"I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] US, probably some to Mexico as well," Ross said.

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

近日,美國商務部長威爾伯·羅斯(Wilbur Ross)在接受福克斯商業頻道採訪時妄評中國疫情稱,對美國經濟而言這是一個好消息。

諾獎得主怒罵:

疫情幸虧沒在美國,真心為政府捏把汗

羅斯評論讓全美上下一片譁然!

諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者、普林斯頓大學經濟學教授保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)非常擔心,疫情要是發生在美國,這群思維混亂的政府官員能不能行。

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

他在《紐約時報》上發表專欄文章直言,真心為美國捏把汗。

克魯格曼表示,羅斯愚蠢的評論(boneheaded remarks)足以讓人懷疑,美國政府這幫人能否應對好任何一場不是自己造成的危機。瑪利亞颶風就因為美國政府處理不當,捲走幾千條人命。

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

請記住,到目前為止,美國政府都非常幸運。除了瑪利亞颶風(處理不當,導致幾千多位美國人喪生)以外,基本沒有遇到過不是由自己造成的國內外危機。此外,身邊有一群思維混亂的人,足以讓人嚴重懷疑美國政府能否處理好那些並非由自己製造的危機。

Bear in mind that so far Trump has been remarkably lucky. Aside from Hurricane Maria — which he mishandled, and in which thousands of Americans died — he has faced essentially no crises, domestic or foreign, that weren't of his own making.

And he has surrounded himself with the gang that couldn't think straight, which raises severe doubts about how well he would handle a crisis that he didn't create himself.

在克魯格曼看來,如果非要從威爾伯·羅斯週四發表的拙劣言論讀出什麼跡象的話......(那就是),美國政府不僅沒有準備好如何應對公共健康危機,更沒有準備好應對疫情可能帶來的經濟影響。真心捏把汗。

If Wilbur Ross's boneheaded remarks on Thursday are any indication … the Trump administration is even less prepared to deal with the economic fallout from a possible epidemic than it is to deal with the public health crisis. Be afraid.

給掛科的羅斯補上一堂經濟學課

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

美國商務部長威爾伯·羅斯

“這個商務部長剛剛掛掉‘微生物經濟學’課!”克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)毫不客氣地諷刺羅斯。作為諾貝爾經濟學獎獲得者、著名經濟學家,克魯格曼在文中給這些大放厥詞的美國高層好好補了一堂“微生物經濟學課”。

羅斯思維病症的根源:不懂21世紀經濟學。

克魯格曼在文中寫道,羅斯認為美國將從疫情中獲益,除非是壓根不懂21世紀的全球經濟,才會這麼想。

Now, you might think that this implies an upside to China’s troubles, that disrupting China’s vast manufacturing sector would offer opportunities to producers in other countries, including the United States. That is, you might think this if you knew nothing about 21st-century economics.

第一講:全球價值鏈

克魯格曼認為,羅斯和他的同僚們顯然並不明白,現代製造業不同於幾代人以前的製造業,不再是不同國家工業部門間的“直接競爭”。克魯格曼進一步解釋說,如今我們生活在全球價值鏈的世界裡,任何國家進口的大部分都不是消費品,而是其自身生產過程中所使用的“中間商品”。

What Ross and his colleagues apparently still don't understand that modern manufacturing isn't like manufacturing a couple of generations ago, when different countries' industrial sectors were engaged in fairly straightforward head-to-head competition.


These days we live in a world of global value chains, in which much of what any given nation imports consists not of consumer goods but of "intermediate" goods that it uses as part of its own production process.

在這樣一個世界裡,任何干擾進口的東西,無論是關稅還是病毒,都會增加生產成本,從而影響製造業。事實上,美聯儲近期一份報告顯示,特朗普政府的關稅政策集中在中間商品上,已經減少了製造業的產出和就業。

In such a world, anything that disrupts imports — whether it's tariffs or a virus — raises production costs, and as a result if anything hurts manufacturing.

Indeed, a recent study by the Federal Reserve found that Trump's tariffs, which were concentrated on intermediate goods, have reduced, not increased, manufacturing output and employment.

第二講:疫情對美國經濟的影響,堪稱貿易戰極端版

克魯格曼強調,疫情對美國經濟的影響比貿易戰更甚。

儘管2019年整體經濟增長還算不錯(雖然不是太好),但製造業正在處於衰退進程中。(貿易戰帶來的不確定性可能解釋了這樣一種現象,為什麼大幅削減公司稅,商業投資仍然在下降。)

…… while overall economic growth in 2019 was decent (not great), manufacturing is in a recession. (And the uncertainty created by the trade war may explain why business investment is down despite a huge cut in corporate taxes.)

我們可以這樣說,如果這種病毒嚴重破壞了中國的生產,它對美國經濟的影響堪稱“貿易戰的極端版本”。

What we can say is that if the virus seriously disrupts Chinese production, its impact on the US economy will be like an extreme version of Trump's trade war…

結論

在克魯格曼羅斯眼裡,羅斯認為中國的疫情將“加速就業機會迴流美國”,而這種觀點只能證明兩件事:第一,難怪《紐約時報》專欄作家蓋爾·柯林斯的讀者會將羅斯評為特朗普政府最差的成員;第二,難怪特朗普的貿易戰打得如此失敗。

Sure enough, Wilbur Ross, … to declare that he "didn't want to talk about a victory lap," but that the coronavirus "will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America." By saying this, he demonstrated a couple of things: (1) why Gail Collins's readers voted him Trump's worst cabinet member, and (2) why Trump's trade war has been such a failure.

給掛科的羅斯補上一堂公共衛生學課

羅斯的冷血論調惹怒的不僅僅是美國經濟學家,還有公共衛生學家。

據《華盛頓郵報》報道稱,多位公共衛生學家均迅速出手怒批,羅斯的發言不僅不準確而且還危險。從新型冠狀病毒疫情爆發以來,公共衛生部門的工作者努力防止虛假信息在社交媒體上的傳播,從陰謀論到騙人的靈丹妙藥。各個平臺都在打壓關乎健康的危險假信息的傳播

But public health experts were quick to criticize Ross's comments as inaccurate and dangerous, saying such messaging could suppress reports of new infections.

Meanwhile, health officials are up against the spread of false information on social media, from conspiracy theories to deceitful claims of magical cures. And Facebook, Google and Twitter are scrambling to crack down on the spread of dangerous health disinformation.

專家學者希望羅斯停止不負責任的論調。

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

美國公共衛生協會執行理事喬治·本傑明犀利評論稱,從實際風險講,槍支濫用、美國本土麻疹疫情,這兩個任何一個都比冠狀病毒更危險。

“你總能遇到說話不負責任的人,自己不專業還亂說話。羅斯的言論完全沒有科學和歷史依據。”

本傑明強調,面對這種新型疾病,你應該想盡可能地開放。如果你壓制這種開放性,事情完全會進一步惡化,將會有更多的人感染甚至死亡。

Georges C. Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said that American companies would have more reason to be concerned about gun violence or measles outbreaks stateside in terms of actual risk to their health than coronavirus.

"You have somebody of that stature who makes an irresponsible comment, speaking on matters in which he has no expertise, and there's no scientific or historical evidence to what he's saying," Benjamin said of Ross.

"With this kind of new disease, you want as much openness as you can", Benjamin added. "If you suppress that openness, which this will do, then you absolutely make it worse and more people will get sick, and more people will die."

波士頓大學衛生公共學院的院長桑德羅·加利亞也表示,這種傳染性疾病威脅著我們所有人,並且疫情的爆發從來就沒有過任何積極影響。羅斯的言論基於對傳染病傳播方式的誤解。政府官員有責任用明智的方式與公眾交流,教育或者推動我們更好地瞭解什麼才會真正有幫助。而不是起反作用,發表羅斯那樣的言論。

Sandro Galea, dean of the School of Public Health at Boston University, said infectious diseases "threaten all of us" and that there's never a positive consequence from an outbreak.


Ross's comments "rest on a misunderstanding of how infectious diseases are transmitted," Galea said.

There's a "responsibility that public officials have to communicate in an informed manner that educates the public and moves us towards an understanding of what actually generates help," Galea said.


"A comment like this achieves the exact opposite purpose."

網友:簡直就是個魔鬼

《今日美國》報道稱,專欄作家邁克爾·舒曼怒問,羅斯的意思不就是中國人在這事兒上死越多,我們美國人工作機會就越多麼!!這已經不是羅斯第一次麻木不仁了!

Wilbur Ross might as well have said 'the more of those Chinese who die over there, the more jobs for us!!'


It was not the first time Ross has been accused of callousness.

美國電臺主持人米開朗基羅·西尼奧裡萊稱,這群人簡直太噁心了,心被挖了。

"These people are so sick and heartless." said radio host Michelangelo Signorile.

福布斯網站資深撰稿人傑克·凱利發表文章說,羅斯對人們的痛苦充耳不聞,發表的言論不合時宜、麻木不仁。

… Ross' comments come off as tone-deaf, inappropriate and insensitive.

羅斯的話氣得網友渾身發抖。

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

要我看,羅斯已經不是人了。一有點錢,就沒人性了,這簡直是精神疾病。

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

天啊,你就這麼輕浮嗎?那麼多人死了,就因為有助於經濟??胡扯八道!還能比這個更讓人噁心嗎?

中国疫情对美国经济有利?诺奖得主批美商务部长不仅坏而且蠢 | 外媒说

這樣的言論太可惡了!如果只是私下說說已經夠糟糕了,他竟然還公開說?簡直就是個魔鬼!


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