世界上有一些科技看似牛掰、貌似靠谱，却始终没发展起来，比如说：
Some technologies in the world seem awesome and reliable, but they have never been developed. For example：
虚拟现实，人造子宫，试管肉，可控核聚变，量子电脑。
Virtual Reality, Artificial Ovary, Clean Meat, Controlled Nuclear Fusion, Quantum Computer.
过去15年，特斯拉造出了最畅销的电动汽车，SpaceX产出了性价比最高的火箭。这两家公司的大老板马斯克认为：两项技术的完美结合点，有可能就是电动飞机。
In the past 15 years, Tesla has made the best-selling electric cars, and SpaceX has produced the most cost-effective rocket. Musk, the boss of the two companies, believes that the perfect combination point of the two technologies may be electric aircraft.
他和好基友谷歌创始人拉里佩奇都认为：电池技术越来越成熟，交通工具肯定都得电动化。而一个巨大商机，就是电动飞机。
He and his bestie, Google's founder Larry Page, both agree that battery technology is becoming more and more mature and vehicles must be electrified, and there is a huge commercial opportunity, the electric aircraft.
连超级大佬都看好的技术，为什么始终无法起飞？
Why the technology that even the super bosses think highly of cannot take off?
我是电动Emma, 今天手动告诉大家，电动飞机为啥没发展起来。
I am Electric Emma. In this video, I will tell you manually why the electric aircraft has not been developed.
任何一项新技术能普及，都一定在两个维度做得特别出色：提升便利性和降低价格。按这个逻辑，电动飞机有着超强的走红潜力。
Any new technology that can be popularized must do particularly well in two dimensions: improving convenience and lowering the price. According to this logic, electric aircraft has great potential to become popular.
首先说第一维度“提升便利性”。电动飞机有可能让我们实现在市中心登机。由于电驱动没有噪音，再加上电动飞机扭矩比较大，需要的跑道更短，所以即使在市中心起降，也不会扰民。
Let's have a look at the first dimension, "improving convenience". The electric aircraft may allow us to board in the city center. Because there exists no noise in the electric drive, coupled with the larger torque of the electric aircraft and the shorter runway needed, it will not disturb residents even if it takes off and lands in the city center.
接着说第二维度“降低价格”，电动飞机的运营成本会很低。航空公司每次飞行的最大成本就是燃油费，占了运营费用的40％-50%， 全体空乘人员的成本才占15%-20%。能省下燃油费，机票大降价是必然。
Next, the second dimension, "lowering the price". The operating costs of electric aircraft will be very low. The largest cost of each flight is the fuel cost, which accounts for 40％-50% of an airline's operating expenses, while the cost of all flight attendants accounts for only 15%-20%. Surely, air tickets will be greatly reduced due to the savings on fuel.
既然电动飞机好处明显，为啥始终没能大规模量产呢？
Since the benefits of electric aircraft are obvious, why has no one ever produced it on a large scale?
这背后有三大痛点：
技术上，飞机有个猪队友；
政策上，领证好比登天难；
资源上，超级大佬没翻牌；
There are three major pain points behind this:
Technically, the aircraft has a weak teammate;
In policy, it is so difficult to get a certification;
In terms of resources, the super bosses are not interested in it.
除了逐一分析这些痛点外，我还想聊聊科技、商业、政治与文化的联系。科技伟大，却并不万能。只有当科技与人、与其他领域在对的时间发生化学反应时，它才会产生巨大价值。
In addition to analyzing these pain points one by one in this video, I also want to talk about the links between technology, business, politics, and culture. Science and technology are great, but not omnipotent. The technology produces great value only when it reacts with people and other fields at the right time.
先来说电动飞机的第一个痛点：
Let's start with the first pain point of electric aircraft:
01 技术上的猪队友
Technical Weak Teammate
近20年，电机几乎在驱动着整个物理世界：小至电吹风、电灯、大至电脑、电梯、电动车，越来越多东西都被电动化了。就连我，都变成电动Emma了。
In the past 20 years, electrical machinery has driven almost the entire physical world: from electric hair driers, electric lamps to computers, elevators, and electric cars, more things are being electrified, even I have become Electric Emma.
有待征服的，只剩下飞机火箭这种硬核选手。因为不能靠随时拉根电线充电补能，所以想电动化飞机火箭，就得依靠一位猪队友--电池。
Only hardcore players such as aircraft and rocket are left to be conquered. Because you can't recharge by pulling wire at any time, if you want to electrify the aircraft and rocket, you have to rely on a weak teammate--the battery.
从航空工程师的角度看，电池有三大硬伤：一贵二重三占地方。
From an aeronautical engineer’s perspective, the battery has three major weaknesses: expensive, heavy, and taking up space.
电池的效率一直不如燃油。如今最好的电池，也只达到300wh/kg的能量密度。这效率用在飞机上，就相当尴尬了。
Batteries have always been less efficient than fuel. Today's best batteries can only reach an energy density of 300wh/kg and it is quite awkward to use on aircraft.
2018年，西门子造了一架“全球最牛”的纯电小飞机，但它的电量只够支撑一个驾驶员飞45分钟。驾驶员表示：飞这玩意儿压力山大，连夜宵都不敢吃，因为稍长胖些，这电量就连支撑他飞45分钟都做不到了….
In 2018, Siemens made a small pure electric aircraft that was “the best in the world”, but the electricity can only support it for 45 minutes. The pilot said: flying with this thing was so stressful because he couldn't even eat midnight snacks. If he got a little fatter, the electricity could not even support him to fly for 45 minutes...
为什么电池用在飞机上，会如此落魄呢？因为电池、机重和动力之间，有个无解死胡同。我们来看这个电池矛盾模型：
Why does the battery perform so badly when used on an aircraft? Because there is an impasse between the battery, machine weight, and power. Let's take a look at this battery contradiction model:
只有当动力等于飞机的重量时，飞机才能飞起来。
所以如果飞机的重量增加，动力也得增加。
动力增加，就意味着需要更多电池。
而装更多电池，又意味着飞机更重，需要更多动力来驱动….
你看这个死胡同。
Only when the power is equal to the weight of the aircraft can it fly.
So if the weight of the aircraft increases, so does the power.
More power means more batteries are needed.
And loading more batteries means that the aircraft is heavier and needs more power to drive.
Look at this impasse.
更惨的是，普通飞机消耗的燃料越多，飞机就越轻。但电动飞机无论飞多久，电池还是那么重。所以，如果电池能量密度不提升，电动飞机就没法飞得远。
To make matters worse, the more fuel an ordinary aircraft consumes, the lighter it will be, while no matter how long the electric aircraft flies, the battery is still so heavy. Therefore, if the battery energy density is not increased, the electric aircraft will not be able to fly far.
不过，懂行的同学可能会说：即使飞不了长途，电动飞机还是有不少应用场景的呀，比如作为观光飞机、驾驶学员练手的小飞机啥的。
However, some knowledgeable people may say: even if it can't fly long distances, there are still many application scenarios, such as sightseeing aircraft and small aircraft for trainees to practice.
没错！数据显示，一架飞行学员练手的燃油小飞机，每次飞一小时的运营成本是45美金。而电动小飞机，每小时只需1美金，都快比骑共享单车便宜了。这个价格差，让电动飞机在这个细分领域很有戏的样子。
That's right! Data shows that the operating cost of a small fueled aircraft used for training is $45 per hour, while a small electric aircraft costs only $1 an hour, which is almost cheaper than a shared bike. This price difference makes electric aircraft very promising in this subdivision.
古今中外，大多技术的腾飞，不都是从细分领域做起的吗，那为什么电动飞机在这种自己擅长的细分领域，也无法开花结果呢？
At all times and in all over the world, most of the successful technologies start from the market segments, so why cannot electric aircraft blossom and bear fruit in the subdivision field that it is good at?
原因就是我今天要分享的第二点：
The reason is the second point I want to share today:
02 政策上，领证好比登天难
In policy, it is so difficult to get a certification
电动飞机想试飞或者运营，都要拿资格证，说白了，就是要通过一系列苛严的测试，去证明飞机上每一个零部件都是安全的。其中最魔鬼的测试，就是“电池不着火测试”。
If you want to test flight or operate an electric aircraft, you have to get a certification. To put it bluntly, you have to pass a series of stringent tests to prove that every part of the aircraft is safe, among which the most devilish one is the "battery will not fire" test.
相关部门解释说：一辆电动汽车万一自燃了，你还能靠边停，下车逃生。但一架电动客机在空中着火，就没救了。因此，政府必须对飞机的监管力度和可靠性要求，开启最高标准。
The relevant department explains: if an electric car ignites spontaneously, you can pull over and get out of the car to escape. However, once an electric passenger plane catches fire in the air, it is hopeless. Therefore, the governments must set the highest standards for the supervision and reliability of aircraft.
美国已经算是对飞行限制相对宽松的国家， 但即使在那儿，一架电动飞机光去把安全测试的流程走一遍，就需要好几年。而这个时长，都够新一代电池技术问世了。也就是说，当你拿到许可证时，这架飞机在技术层面已经out了。
The United States is considered a country with relatively loose flight restrictions, but even there, it takes years for an electric aircraft to go through the safety test process. The time is long enough for a new generation of battery technology to come out. In other words, by the time you get the certification, the aircraft is already technically out.
一些公司为了解决这个问题，想了个捷径。他们放弃从0开始造电动飞机，而选择拿燃油飞机直接改造，把机上的燃油系统替换成电机和电池。这么做，确实能逃过些测试，省些时间，但这种用御姐的身体装小可爱灵魂的方法，显然是违和的。
Some companies have come up with a shortcut to solve this problem, that is, instead of producing an electric aircraft from the very beginning, they transform the fueled aircraft directly, replacing its fuel system with electrical machinery and batteries. In doing so, they can indeed escape some tests and save some time, but this method of pretending a little cute soul with a domineering lady's body is obviously against the rules.
锂电池的能量密度，只有喷气燃料的1/40。这么硬替换，电池和电机还哪来的优势？实测它们的续航能力，撑死也只能达到燃油飞机的1/20。
The energy density of lithium batteries is only 1/40 of that of jet fuel. With such a replacement, how can batteries and electrical machinery have any advantages? According to the test, their endurance can only at best reach the 1/20 of a fueled aircraft.
相比电动飞机，电动汽车的命实在太好了！这十年里，不但国家给钱补贴，还打出了绿牌扶持这张王炸来实力捧场。更重要的是，电动汽车行业还有像马斯克、李想、李斌这样的大佬all in投资创业。
Compared with the electric aircraft, the fate of the electric car is so good! Over the past ten years, the countries have not only given money subsidies but also provided the shocking green-card-support to boost it influentially. More importantly, the electric car industry possesses super bosses like Musk, Li Xiang, and Li Bin who have been all in to start their own businesses.
这也把我们带到了今天要聊的最后一点：
This brings us to the last point we're going to talk about:
03 超级大佬没翻牌
The super bosses are not interested in it.
我刚写完了一本有关马斯克的书。在书里，我有提到电动汽车总是在和电动飞机抢占资源，包括抢占大佬的投资。
I just finished writing a book about Musk, in which I have mentioned that electric cars always compete with electric aircraft for resources, including the investment of super bosses.
2003年，硅谷的技术大牛J.B.Straubel认识了金主马斯克，想让他投资自己的电动飞机项目。马斯克当初也有动心，但却始终下不了决心。最后阴差阳错，两人决定联手大搞电动汽车，也因此有了特斯拉，掀起一场电动汽车革命。
In 2003, the tech giant J.B.Straubel of Silicon Valley met Musk and expected Musk to invest in his electric aircraft project. Musk was tempted at the beginning, but he couldn't make up his mind. In the end, accidentally, the two decided to join hands to develop electric cars, so there was Tesla, setting off an electric car revolution.
航天爱好者会问：如果当时他俩选择扶持电动飞机，又会怎么样? 是不是富人现在预订的不是Roadster，而是电动直升机啦？
Space enthusiasts may ask: what if they chose to support electric aircraft at that time? If so, will the riches book electric helicopters instead of Roadster now?
有句话说得好：大佬推动科技，历史成就英雄。一项技术的腾飞与应用，并不是自然而然的，而是
由经济、政治、文化和“行业巨人”等多个维度产生化学反应后定性的。There is a good saying: super bosses promote science and technology, and history makes heroes. The success of technology and its application is not accidental but determined by chemical reactions in many dimensions, including economy, politics, culture, ”industry giants“ and so on.
比如说二战时期的图灵。如果没有英德大战这个畸形的舞台，图灵超越时代的天才，还能有用武之地吗？计算机科学的基础，还能那么快被奠定吗？人工智能的发展，还能提前大半个世纪被他预见吗？
Like Turing during World War II, without the abnormal stage of the war between England and Germany, would Turing have a chance to display his talents beyond the time? Could the foundation of computer science be laid so quickly? Could the development of artificial intelligence be foreseen more than half a century in advance?
很多时候，我们都错以为：科技和进步一定会逐年提升。但其实，只有当大佬愿意慷慨解囊，政策到位，天才有施展的舞台，还有更多人愿意在上下游为之付出巨大努力后，一项技术才能发展起来。
Most often, we mistakenly think that science and technology and progress are bound to improve year by year. But in fact, technology can be developed only when the super bosses donate generously, the policy is in place, the genius has a stage, and people are willing to make great efforts upstream and downstream.
在电动飞机这个问题上，无论是电池技术的瓶颈，还是政策和大佬资源上的不倾斜，都让它的发展难上加难。但尽管如此，中外还是有不少狂热从业者，在为电动飞机倾注一生。
On the issue of electric aircraft, the bottleneck of battery technology and the restrictive policy and resources make its development even more difficult. In spite of this, there are still many enthusiastic practitioners all over the world devoting their lives to electric aircraft.
结合历史，去看一次次技术大突破，你会发现：每项创新科技，都遵循着相似的规律。无论是怀特兄弟造的第一架飞机，奔驰先生造的第一辆现代汽车，还是现在的电动飞机、无人驾驶技术等等，全部都要经历这个甘地总结的四部曲：
If you look back the major technological breakthroughs in history, you will find that every innovative technology follows a similar law. The first plane made by White Brothers, the first modern car made by Mr. Mercedes-Benz, the current electric aircraft, autonomous driving, and so on, all these have to go through the four stages summed up by Gandhi:
First they ignore you (首先，他们无视你)
Then they laugh at you （接着，他们嘲讽你）
Then they fight you （然后，他们要打败你）
Then you win（最后，你获得胜利）
很明显，电动飞机现在还处于第一阶段，路漫漫其修远兮。我想以人类第一次成功把飞机送上天的片段，作为这个视频的结尾。
The electric aircraft, obviously, is still in the first stage and the journey is long. I want to end this video with the first successful flight of a human aircraft into the sky.
1903年，怀特兄弟手工造的飞机，实现了第一次离地，飞行时间没撑到一分钟。即便这个开场有点怂，过了好些年世界大战时，飞机已经可以飞得很溜了。又过了一段时间，就已经可以越洋了。而现在，飞机飞十几个小时，也毫无压力。
In 1903, the handmade aircraft made by White Brothers left the ground for the first time, but the flight time did not last for a minute. Even though it was imperfect at the beginning, the aircraft was able to fly very smoothly during the world war after many years and was able to cross the ocean after another period. Now, it can fly for more than ten hours easily.
属于我们这个时代的高新玩意儿，也一定会经历相似的怂开场。电动飞机何时能大规模量产，最终能否掀起历史上第三次航空革命？值得我们拭目以待。
The high-tech things in our time always start with a similar imperfect trying. When will the electric aircraft be mass-produced and will it eventually set off the third aviation revolution? It's worth waiting for.
在之后的一系列视频里，我会分析可控核聚变、人造子宫等貌似能改变人类进程，却始终还没发展起来的硬核科技，记得三连关注。
In this series of videos, I will analyze some hardcore technologies that seem to change the human process but have not yet developed, such as controllable nuclear fusion and artificial ovary. Don't forget to give me a "LIKE" and subscribe to my channel.
我是电动Emma, 左手科技，右手文艺，我们下回再见。
I am Electric Emma, technology one side, literature and art the other side, see you next time.
關鍵字: technology 电池 will
