10.23 中國和印度:展望未來

中國和印度:展望未來

​10月11日至12日,中國國家主席習近平和印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪在印度南部城市金奈舉行了第二次非正式會晤。

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their second informal meeting on October 11-12 in the southern Indian city of Chennai.


中國和印度:展望未來

與會時,習近平主席指出,中印都是擁有幾千年歷史的文明古國,交流互鑑綿延至今。兩國先輩們克服重重障礙,開展廣泛交流,推動文學、藝術、哲學、宗教發展和傳播,雙方均受益良多。

During the meeting, Xi said China and India, as ancient civilizations with several thousand years of history, have carried on exchanges and mutual learning until the present. The two countries' ancestors overcame various obstacles to carry out extensive exchanges and promote the development of literature, art, philosophy and religion, which have greatly benefited both sides.

莫迪表示,印中兩國現在都已經成為重要新興經濟體,加強交流合作,對於兩國發展具有重要意義,也將促進全球進步繁榮。印中文明古老深刻,其蘊含的智慧可以為解決當今世界面臨的各種挑戰提供啟示。

Modi said China and India have become important emerging economies, stressing that enhancing exchanges and cooperation is of great significance to the two countries and will promote global progress and prosperity. The wisdom from the two countries' ancient and profound civilizations can provide inspiration for solving various challenges facing the world today.

五年前,莫迪首次當選印度總理後不久,習主席就訪問了印度。這一傳統在莫迪今年第二次成功競選後繼續延續,這兩次訪問都強調了中印關係的重要性。

Xi visited India five years ago shortly after Modi was first elected prime minister of India. This tradition was continued as Xi visited again after Modi's second successful election bid this year. Both trips highlighted the importance of Sino-Indian ties.


和平與友誼

Peace and friendship


2020年,中印將迎來兩國建交70週年。作為第一個同新中國建交的非社會主義國家,印度同中國在70年的交往中結下了深厚友誼。在新中國成立之前,兩國就開始相互支援彼此的獨立鬥爭,在共同反帝反殖的歷史中結下了深厚的戰鬥情誼。此外,在1988年雙邊關係正常化和1990年代初冷戰結束後,中印關係取得了巨大進展。

In 2020, China and India will welcome the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. India was the first non-socialist country to establish ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC). Even before the founding of the PRC in 1949, the two countries supported each other in their struggle for independence from imperialist and colonial powers. Moreover, Sino-Indian ties made great headway after the normalization of bilateral ties in 1988 and the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s.

儘管也曾有過短暫的衝突,但是與數千年的文明交往與文明互鑑相比,和平與友好一直是兩國關係的主流。

Though there has been shortly conflicts, but compared to thousands of years of culture exchanges and civilizations, peace and friendship still well-described the relations between China and India.


中國和印度:展望未來


戰略互信

Strategic trust


邊界問題是影響中印兩國關係的最大問題。兩國曾在邊境地帶爆發過多次對峙事件。

Border issues have been the biggest hurdle affecting Sino-Indian relations. Confrontations have repeatedly occurred in the border area.

不過,雙方通過談判也陸陸續續地取得了一系列成績——不僅裁減了在邊境地區的軍隊部署,還建立了各種長效的衝突解決機制和邊境人員的溝通機制,保持了邊境地區的和平與穩定。在這些努力之下,兩國已經形成了邊境管理和控制機制,並逐步建立了一些基本共識。

Through negotiations, the two countries have made some progress on these issues in recent years and have reduced their military deployment in the area. The two sides have also established various long-term conflict resolution mechanisms and communication mechanisms for border personnel, which have contributed to maintaining peace and stability in the area. With such efforts, a border control and management mechanism has been formed and the two have gradually built some basic consensus.

中印兩國取得的另一個更為重大的進展是在經貿領域的合作。1990年,中印貿易額僅為1.7億美元。而到了2000年,兩國的貿易額達到29億美元,2018年更是快速增長到955億美元。

Another progressive step taken by the two countries is cooperation in the economic and trade areas. In 1990, the trade volume between China and India was only $170 million, but in 2000, the number climbed to $2.9 billion and surged to $95.5 billion in 2018.

更重要的是,中印經貿合作已經擺脫了簡單的商品貿易,越來越多中國企業來到印度投資建廠。中國公司大量承建印度的基礎設施工程,更是為印度長遠發展提供了強勁的後勁。

More importantly, trade and economic cooperation between China and India has consisted of more than just pure trade in goods. An increasing number of Chinese enterprises have gone to India to establish factories, and Chinese firms have built a large number of Indian infrastructure projects, which provide a strong potential for future and long-term cooperation.


中國和印度:展望未來


△ 2017年11月16日,印度浦那市,工人在中國海爾集團工業園廠房內工作。這是中國家電企業在印度投產的第一個工業園。(圖/新華)

Workers work in an industrial park of Haier group in Pune, India, Nov. 16, 2017. This is the first industrial park put into production by a Chinese appliance company in India. (Photo/Xinhua)


冷戰後中印的同時崛起,構成了今日“百年未有之大變局”的基礎。而中印關係更是逐漸超越了雙邊層次,越來越具有全球影響力。正如習近平主席2014年訪問印度時所言:“中印用一個聲音說話,全世界都會傾聽。”

After the Cold War, the simultaneous rise of China and India constituted the groundwork for today's global landscape, which is undergoing major changes. Sino-Indian relations have transcended the bilateral scope and increasingly gained global influence. As Xi said during his visit to India in 2014, if China and India speak with one voice, the whole world will listen.

兩國在全球層面的利益重合和合作越來越多,在聯合國、世界貿易組織、金磚國家、上海合作組織和二十國集團等多邊機制中,中印都保持著緊密的溝通與協調。而在氣候變化、能源和糧食安全、國際金融機構改革和全球治理等領域也天然地存在廣泛的共同利益和合作空間。

The two countries have more and more cooperation and interests that overlap on the global level. They maintain close communication and coordination in multilateral mechanisms including the UN, the World Trade Organization, BRICS, the SCO and the Group of 20. In areas like climate change, energy, food security, international financial institutional reform and global governance, they also share extensive common interests and cooperation opportunities.

不過,隨著中印實力差距的拉大,當前印度對中國的戰略憂慮也在加深。

However, with the increasing gap in national strength between China and India, the latter's strategic concerns about China have deepened.

印度對中國同南亞和印度洋沿岸國家的經濟合作存在較大擔憂,試圖借重外部大國“平衡”中國的意圖越來越明顯。互信不足是其中的關鍵原因。

For example, it worries about China's economic cooperation with South Asian countries and Indian Ocean littoral countries. Thus, its attempts to "balance" China with external forces have become increasingly evident, a situation caused by a lack of mutual trust.

在當今的國際環境下,中印兩國應努力避免地緣政治上的戰略競爭,把重點放在經濟發展和改善民生上。要實現這一目標,印度需要加強對改革開放以來中國所堅持的和平自主外交的理解。

In today's international situation, China and India should make efforts to avoid strategic competition in geopolitics and focus on economic development and improving people's livelihood. To achieve this goal, India needs to strengthen its understanding of China's independent foreign policy of peace.

在過去的幾十年裡,數以億計的中國人已經擺脫了貧困,但離共同富裕的目標仍然存在很大差距。以人均GDP為例,中國仍排在世界第60位之外。正因如此,十八大以來,習近平主席重申了“兩個一百年”奮鬥目標,並提出了為實現中華民族偉大復興的中國夢而奮鬥的目標。

Over the past several decades, hundreds of millions of people in China have moved out of poverty, but there is still a long way to go for nationwide prosperity. For example, in terms of per-capita GDP, China still ranks over 60th in the world. Based on this reality, Xi reiterated that China will work hard to achieve the Two Centenary Goals and realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the nation.

而印度也面臨著相似的治國理政的艱鉅任務。

India also faces the same arduous task of governing and developing its country.

共同基礎

Common ground


中印在疾病防控、糧食、環境保護、可持續發展等發展問題上享有共同利益。

China and India share common interests in development issues such as disease prevention and control, food, environmental protection and sustainable development.


中國和印度:展望未來

只有擴大改善民生的合作,才能使兩國關係保持在正確的軌道上,增進戰略互信。

Only by widening cooperation in improving people's livelihood can they keep their relations on the right track and bolster strategic mutual trust.

中國在過去40年裡取得經濟發展奇蹟的歷史經驗對世界上許多國家都具有啟示意義。對印度而言,除了可以借鑑中國發展經濟的舉措外,中國改革開放時期的外交路線無疑也是具有借鑑意義的。中國採取“韜光養晦、有所作為”的外交,可以專心地聚焦於國內的經濟發展,部分規避了大國之間的地緣政治競爭。

China's historical experience in achieving an economic development miracle in the past 40 years could be enlightening for many countries in the world. India could draw from not only Chinese economic measures, but also China's diplomatic practices. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, China has implemented a diplomatic strategy that calls for keeping a low profile while getting something done, which has enabled it to focus on domestic economic growth and partly circumvent geopolitical competition among different powers.

當前大國間的地緣政治競爭加劇,這既給印度提供了戰略機遇,事實上也給印度留下了戰略挑戰,而莫迪政府採取明智的戰略至關重要。當前的逆全球化與保護主義趨勢,印度的發展面臨著比中國經濟起飛時期更為複雜的外部環境。

Currently, competition among major powers has intensified, which has provided India with a strategic opportunity and also a strategic challenge. It is vital for India that the Modi administration adopts a wise strategy. Against today's surging anti-globalization tide and increasing protectionism, India's development is facing a more complicated external environment compared to the period of China's economic takeoff.

作為世界上人口最多的兩個國家,只有中印兩大市場攜手對接,互為對方提供發展機遇,才能一方面造福兩國廣大民眾,另一方面為“亞洲世紀”的實現注入內在動力。

As the countries with the biggest populations, only by joining hands and offering development opportunities to each other can China and India create benefits for their own people and be the impetus for creating new growth drivers for the Asian century.


作者 / 林民旺

復旦大學國際問題研究院研究員 南亞研究中心副主任

is a researcher with the International Studies Institute of Fudan University in Shanghai

翻譯 / 溫晴

圖片 / 網絡

美編 / 高銘


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