YOU spend 38 years at a mighty global bank, the last seven as chief executive. As boss you clean up a stinking mess, the legacy of ill-conceived acquisitions and shoddy practice. You shell out billions in fines and legal costs. You shed businesses and cut jobs by a quarter. You build a solid capital base. You maintain dividends. On your last day, you announce decent results, with revenue growing after five years of shrinkage and profits up nicely. The market’s parting gift to you? The share price falls by 3%.
當你在一家強大的全球銀行工作38年，最後七年擔任首席執行官，以老闆的身份清理一團亂麻的爛攤子國解決前任留下的無腦收購和胡亂管理後果。還要付出數十億的罰款和司法費用；要裁員四分之一；打下了紮實的資本基礎；維持給股東分紅。在你職業生涯的最後一天，宣佈各項結果良好，在經歷五年的收縮和利潤增長後，收入增長勢頭良好。至於市場給你的離別禮物是什麼呢？股價下跌了3%。
Analysts had expected better from Stuart Gulliver’s final report as boss of Britain’s HSBC, the world’s seventh-biggest bank by assets, on February 20th. They were surprised by charges for impaired loans to two companies, thought to be Carillion, a failed British contractor, and Steinhoff, a troubled South African retailer, and miffed that HSBC put off buying back more shares. That, the bank said, must wait until it has raised $5bn-7bn of “additional tier-1” capital (debt that switches to equity in a crisis).
2月20日，相對於英國匯豐銀行CEO歐智華給出的最後的財報，市場分析師的預期更高。匯豐銀行是全球資產規模第七大的銀行。令人這些分析師感到意外的是，匯豐銀行因兩家企業貸款減值而遭罰款——這兩家個來據信是破產的英國承包商Carillion和陷入困境的南非零售商斯坦霍夫。因此，他們對匯豐銀行推遲迴購更多股票感到惱火。匯豐銀行表示，回購須等到籌集到50億至70億美元的“更多的一級”資本(在危機中轉換為股本的債務)之後。
Nevertheless, the bank that Mr Gulliver hands over to John Flint, another HSBC lifer (28 years and counting), is in fair shape. The balance-sheet, at $2.5trn, is roughly as big as it was when he took over at the start of 2011. But it is safer. Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) have shrunk by more than 20%. The ratio of equity to RWAs, a key measure of capital strength, is a robust 14.5%. Investment banking, which accounted for half of profit in 2010, now contributes 28%, a bit less than retail banking and wealth management, the division Mr Flint used to run, and corporate banking.
儘管如此，歐智華交給另一位匯豐資深人士約翰·弗林特（至今在匯豐任職28年）的匯豐銀行仍然運營良好，資產負債表規模為2.5萬億美元，與2011年初上任時的規模大致相當。可是，匯豐銀行更為安全，風險加權資產縮水超過20%。作為衡量資本實力的一個關鍵指標，股本與風險加權資產的比率是強勁的14.5%。投資銀行收入佔2010年利潤的一半，如今貢獻了28%的利潤，略低於零售銀行和財富管理部門(弗林特此前掌管的部門)和對公銀行業務。
Mr. Flint also inherits two other things. One is a bank freed of some long-standing legal snares. Most recently, in December a five-year-old deferred-prosecution agreement (DPA) with America’s Department of Justice, imposed after Mexican drug gangs laundered $881m through HSBC, expired and charges were dropped. The DPA had included a fine of $1.9bn and close, continuous monitoring by regulators.
弗林特還接手了另外兩件事。一是匯豐銀行擺脫了幾個長期存在的法律陷阱。不久前，在2017年12月，與美國司法部達成了一項為期5年的延期起訴協議——這是針對墨西哥販毒集團通過匯豐銀行洗錢8.81億美元——到期，同時起訴撤銷了。延期起訴協議包括19億美元的罰款，以及監管機構持續的密切監管。
The other is a big bet on Asia, where the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation was born—in Hong Kong in 1865. In 2015 Mr. Gulliver announced among other things an investment in the Pearl River Delta, a Chinese economic hotspot. The bank has 24 teams supporting Chinese businesses abroad, 20 of them in cities along the routes of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure plan that seeks to improve trade links. Asia already accounts for three-quarters of profits.
另一個是對亞洲的重點投入。匯豐銀行於1865年在香港成立。2015年，歐智華宣佈了對中國經濟熱點地區珠江三角洲的投資。匯豐銀行有24個團隊在全球支持中國企業，其中有20個團隊是在中國“一帶一路”倡議沿線的城市。“一帶一路”是一項旨在改善貿易聯繫的基礎設施計劃。亞洲佔到該行四分之三的利潤。
With Mark Tucker, the newish chairman and a former head of AIA, a big Asian insurer, Mr. Flint is likely to follow Mr. Gulliver’s eastward course. Last year Mr Tucker succeeded Douglas Flint (no relation to John) with whom Mr Gulliver formed a successful double act.
隨著新上任的董事長、亞洲大型保險公司友邦保險前總裁馬克·塔克的到來，弗林特很可能會追隨歐智華的東方路線。2017年，塔克接替道格拉斯·弗林特(與約翰無關)，並與歐智化形成了一種有利的雙角色。
Mr. Flint has said he will lay out his plans in a few months. They may reflect a review of HSBC’s North American business, which accounts for 16% of assets but just 8% of profit, and which in 2007 gave out the first loud distress signal of the financial crisis, having seen subprime mortgages turn sour. Manus Costello of Autonomous, a research firm, thinks buying an asset manager would be wise. A wave of recent deals indicates the importance of scale in that business, in which he says HSBC ranks only 45th in the world.
弗林特曾表示會在幾個月內製定計劃，審核匯豐北美業務——佔總資產的16%，卻僅貢獻8%利潤。2007年，由於次級債出現問題，北美的業務發出了金融危機的第一個明顯的危機信號。市場研究機構Autonomous的Manu Costello認為收購一家資產管理公司是明智的。最近的一系列交易表明規模在這一業務中的重要性。弗林特表示，匯豐在全球資產管理業務的排名僅為第45位。
The new boss has other work to do. HSBC’s legal woes are not entirely over. This week it noted that investigations into possible tax-dodging by clients, notably at its Swiss private bank, could yet entail penalties of $1.5bn or more. Also troubling is that return on equity, the banking industry’s main measure of profitability, is a mere 5.9%. Mr Gulliver had set a target of more than 10%, a mark last reached in 2011. Rising interest rates should at least put wind into Mr. Flint’s sails.
弗林特還有其他的工作要做。匯豐銀行的司法危機還沒有完全結束。本週，匯豐銀行指出，針對客戶(尤其是其在瑞士的私人銀行)可能逃稅的調查可能導致15億美元或更多的罰款。同樣令人不安的是，銀行業衡量盈利能力的主要指標——股本回報率僅為5.9%。歐智華之前設定的目標是超過10%——上一次達到這個目標是在2011年。利率上升至少應該給弗林特帶來好兆頭。
編譯：周小君&陳芳芳
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