译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明
BKLN: High Yield Senior Loans May Be Headed For A Reckoning
by Harrison Schwartz from seekingalpha.com
Summary
要点
Investors generally like senior loans because they pay a floating rate and usually deliver 5%+ returns.
投资者一般对杠杆贷款印象不错，因为杠杆贷款是浮动利率计息， 收益率通常会达到5%以上
The Invesco Senior Loan ETF recently crashed 25% and has almost entirely rebounded since.
Invesco公司管理的跟踪美国杠杆贷款市场走势的交易所交易基金BKLN近期大跌了25%，其后几乎收复了全部失地
Many of the companies the fund is lending to are unprofitable, have high debt, and have significant refinancing needs this year.
BKLN持仓的很多杠杆贷款的发行人盈利能力差，负债水平高，且年内借新换旧的压力较大
Despite the Federal Reserve stimulus, many of the loans in the fund have significant downgrade risk.
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尽管美联储出台了货币政策方面的刺激举措，BKLN持仓的很多杠杆贷款大概率地会被信用降级
After experiencing extreme declines, the high yield credit market has nearly returned to all-time highs. This has largely been due to immense central bank stimulus, as detailed in the article "SLQD: Taking A Closer Look At The Federal Reserve Backstop".
在经历了极端的下跌行情后，美国高收益债市场几乎重回历史高位。反弹很大程度上受益于美联储大力度的货币刺激，我在题为"SLQD: Taking A Closer Look At TheFederal Reserve Backstop"的文章中一一列举了这些具体的措施。
One fund that experienced an extreme drop and an equally extreme recovery is the Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN). As you can see below, the usually stable fund lost about 25% of its value and saw its dividend yield spike to 7% before almost fully reversing:
BKLN也经历了惊心动魄的大起大落。如下图所示，这只价格走势通常比较平稳的交易所交易基金在几乎完全收复失地之前最低曾跌去差不多25%，分红率相应地升至7%。
Data by YCharts 图表信息来源：YCharts
BKLN invests in senior loans which are predominately non-investment grade loans that pay a floating yield. Currently, this is about 4.9% above LIBOR, as the fund has a yield-to-maturity of 6.1% and LIBOR is 1.2%.
BKLN基金主要投资于信用评级低于投资级的浮动利率计息的杠杆贷款，其当前的利率水平相当于在LIBOR的基础上加4.9%，其到期收益率为6.1%，而LIBOR为1.2%。
Quite frankly, I do not believe now is a good time to buy BKLN. The economic situation continues to worsen, and the fund is no longer trading at a significant discount to offset these risks.
老实讲，我认为当前并不是买入BKLN的好机会。美国的济还在继续恶化，这只基金的市场价相对于净值的贴水幅度也不像前期那么大，不足以抵消经济下滑的风险。
The Federal Reserve is looking to backstop the corporate bond market, including those with ratings as low as BB-. However, this will not include senior loans. Of course, it will provide liquidity to companies to ensure that they can repay their loans, but BKLN is unlikely to be bought up by the Federal Reserve anytime soon.
美联储正致力于为美国的公司债市场保驾护航，其中也包括那些评级低到BB-的公司债，但其购债范围不包括杠杆贷款。当然了，美联储会提供流动性支持以确保美国企业能按时偿还贷款，但BKLN近期无望被美联储大口吃进。
Importantly,these loans are usually lower-risk, since they are at the top of a company's capital structure. This means equity, preferred equity, and bonds usually must default before senior loans. That said, they are not immune to downgrade risk,which is extremely substantial today. Let's take a closer look at BKLN to see if it can safely weather this storm.
更重要的是，对发行人自身来讲这些杠杆贷款的风险通常还算比较低的，因为杠杆贷款在发行人的资本构成中处于最高的层级。这就意味着一家上市公司在违约杠杆贷款之前通常会先违约普通股股权、优先股和公司债，话虽如此，但杠杆贷款仍无法在发行人的信用评级被调降的时候独善其身。下面研究一下BKLN来看看该基金能否扛得住当前的市场冲击。
BKLN's High Downgrade Risk Exposure
BKLN持仓的杠杆贷款有相当高的降级风险
Overall,the credit rating of BKLN's holdings is pretty heavily skewed toward the lower end of the B-scale. This means they are nearly all considered non-investment grade, with many nearly in the highly speculative CCC category. Take a look atthe breakdown below:
从整体上看，BKLN持仓的杠杆贷款中有相当大一部分的信用级别属于B大类评级中的低档，即这些杠杆贷款几乎均非投资级，其中很多属于投机程度很高的CCC级。具体的评级分布情况见下图：
(Source: Invesco)
BBB-
17.15%
BB+
5.84%
BB
6.80%
BB-
7.47%
B+
21.14%
B
31.54%
B-
6.89%
CCC+
1.39%
CCC
0.17%
无评级
1.61%
The biggest risk here is the high concentration in "B", as those have a high probability of dropping to B- or below given an economic downturn. As long as they float around the B-range, there is not a significant expected impact of a downgrade, since most B-rated loans deliver similar yields. However, the jumpfrom "CCC+" to "CCC-" is quite large and would cause a large price drop. See coupon rates by credit rating below:
最大的风险在于BKLN的持仓高度集中于B级杠杆贷款，在经济下行期间有很大的概率会被降级至B-甚至更低的级别。如果这些杠杆贷款的评级水平能维持在B大类的区间范围内，即使被降级也不会遇到太大的冲击，因为大多数B大类评级的杠杆贷款的收益率水平都差不多。但评级如果从"CCC+" 掉到"CCC-"就麻烦大了，有可能会引发价格大跌。以下是各评级的杠杆贷款的票息水平：
(Source:Invesco)
These yields are generally in line with average junk bond yields. As you can see below, bond yields skyrocketed in March and have since pulled back down quite a bit:
这些收益率基本上与美国垃圾债的平均收益率相符，下图显示各级别公司债的收益率水平在3月份大涨，其后略有回落。
图中蓝线为CCC级垃圾债的收益率，橙线为BBB级公司债的收益率，红线为BB级垃圾债的收益率，绿线为B级垃圾债的收益率
Data by YCharts
Clearly,the high yield credit market is placing a lot of faith in the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide liquidity to below-IG firms. However, it is worth pointing out that they are really only targeting companies that were recently in investment-grade territory and declined due to COVID-19. Thus, many of these companies are unlikely to receive significant benefits.
很清楚的是，美国高收益债市场过高地期望美联储会向非投资级公司债市场提供流动性。但需要指出一点，美联储近期实际上只把价格因受新冠疫情影响而下跌的投资级公司债作为购债目标。因此，很多高收益债级别的发行人不太可能享受到美联储的雨露滋润。
The Alarming Financial Position of BKLN's Holdings
BKLN持仓的杠杆贷款的发行人财务状况堪忧
Quite frankly, many of these companies are at high risk of serious financial issues.The current ratios of most of the top public companies in the fund are below 1(signaling significant refinancing needs) or have been trending lower for years:
实话说，很多杠杆贷款发行人的财务状况很有可能会恶化。BKLN持仓的杠杆贷款的发行人中大多数境况还不错的上市公司最新的流动比率不到1，说明借新换旧的压力很大，且流动比率近年来总体上处于下行趋势。
Data by YCharts
Further,most have drastically increased their balance sheet leverage, with most have total liabilities to assets around 75%. Some may not have significant assets,but the trend toward higher liabilities is alarming:
此外，大多数发行人资产负债表上的杠杆率已远超以往，资产负债率大多在75%左右。有一些发行人的资产没多少，但负债率走高的趋势却颇值得警惕：
Data by YCharts
Of course,most would prefer to use a metric like "Financial Debt/EBITDA", butfew of these companies are profitable. In fact, most were barely scraping by before the virus began, as shown by their profit margins:
当然了，大多数人可能喜欢用“金融债务/息税摊销折旧前的利润”这个财务指标来说事，但这些公司没几个能赚钱的。实际上，大多数企业在新冠疫情爆发之前就已经度日如年了，其毛利润率如下图所示：
Data by YCharts
Obviously,there are more than these seven companies in the ETF. In fact, there are usually closer to 100. That said, they highlight the general trend in all below-IG companies today.
显然，BKLN持仓的杠杆贷款的发行人远不止以上几家公司，实际上发行人的数量通常会接近100家，但这几家公司代表的是非投资级发行人当前的总体状况。
Over thepast decade, there has been tremendous corporate debt expansion as companies look for ways to boost their yield by levering their balance sheet. Most of thecompanies in the below-IG category are those that took levering their balance sheet a bit too far and were already struggling before COVID-19 began. Now that COVID-19 is catalyzing a likely longer-lasting economic recession, many of these struggling companies will become failing ones.
过去十年里美国企业的负债总量有了相当大的增长，因为企业以各种路数给资产负债表加杠杆来谋求盈利最大化。大多数非投资级的美国公司将财务杠杆加得过高，在新冠疫情爆发之前日子就已经很难过了。如今新冠疫情催生了有可能长期持续下去的经济衰退，很多身陷困境的公司将走上不归路。
Bottom Line
总结一下
BKLN does have a 6.1% yield to maturity, which equates to a 5.45% yield after its expense ratio, but that is not high enough to make it worth the risk unless you are absolutely sure of a "V-shaped" recovery.
BKLN基金的到期收益率为6.1%，在扣除管理费后相当于5.45%，但仍不足以弥补该基金本身自带的风险，除非投资者确信美国经济将出现V型反转。
While such a recovery would be nice, the U.S. unemployment rate is now likely over 20%. Even more, nearly a third of U.S.apartment renters did not pay April rent, and that is likely to become worse in May. With many businesses permanently closing shop or at high risk of doing so, unemployment is likely to remain higher for longer. Accordingly, the consumption of non-necessities is likely to stay lower for longer and economic growth will become negative.
虽然经济V型反转会看上去很美，但当前美国失业率有可能超过20%。更有甚之，在租住公寓的美国人中有近三分之一的人无法支付四月份的租金，五月份情况可能会变得更糟。很多企业已经永久性地关张或大概率地会这么做，失业率有可能长期处于高位。因此，非生活必需品的消费可能会陷入长期低迷，美国经济的增速会掉入负值区间。
Accordingly,this is not the time to buy risk assets despite a perceived "Federal Reserve put". In reality, the Federal Reserve's goal is to protect workersand companies, not investors. By expanding the money supply to do so, they maybe stoking the fires of high inflation, which, in reality, hurts investors the most.
因此现在并不是建仓风险资产的时机，尽管市场广泛认为存在“美联储看跌期权”。美联储真正要保护的是就业者和企业，而不是投资者。美联储通过增加货币供应量以达此目的，会点燃通胀加速增长的星星之火，而这实际上对投资者伤害最大。
BKLN has some inflation protection because its holdings are floating-rate. However,LIBOR is likely to remain far below inflation for some time as the Federal Reserve keeps rates at zero. Thus, BKLN's protection from inflation is limited.Overall, BKLN appears to be a "Sell".
BKLN基金在一定程度上可以对抗通胀，因其持仓的杠杆贷款是浮动利率计息的。但LIBOR有可能会因美联储将基准利率的水平保持在零而在远低于通胀率的位置上停留一段时间，因此BKLN基金对抗通胀的效果并不明显。总的来看，当前应该卖出BKLN。
