本文轉自：文學文化研究
The Coronavirus Pandemic
Will Forever Alter the World Order
The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.
By Henry A. Kissinger April 3,2020
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done. The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away. The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus's spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans, ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus's society¬ dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will— hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each. Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world's most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people. The world's democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.
新冠肆虐將永遠改變世界秩序
新冠肺炎全球大流行下的超現實氣氛讓我不禁想起自己年輕時參加二戰突出部戰役的經歷，當時我在第84步兵師。今天的情況和1944年末一樣，有一種危險的徵兆。這種危險不是針對任何特定的人，但帶有驚人的隨機性和毀滅性。我們當今的時代和那個遙遠的年代相比有著很大區別。那時候，有種國家的終極目標在錘鍊著美國的堅毅。如今，在一個分裂的國家，我們需要有效率、有遠見的政府，才能克服規模和範圍都前所未有的全球性障礙。而維持公眾信任對於社會內部團結、社會間關係以及國際和平與穩定而言都至關重要。
國家的團結和繁榮建立在這樣的信念之上：他們的體制能夠預見災難、控制影響並恢復穩定。等到新冠大流行結束時，許多國家的體制將被認為沒能經受住考驗。這種判斷是否客觀公正並不重要。因為現實就是，經歷新冠疫情之後，世界將不復原貌。而糾纏於對過去的爭論只會讓我們更難去做該做的事。
新冠病毒正以我們前所未見的規模和殘暴洶湧來襲。疫情正呈現指數級蔓延：美國的感染病例每五天就翻一番。截止撰稿之時，仍然沒有治癒新冠肺炎的特效方法。醫療物資也不足以應付一波又一波的病例。重症監護病房已不堪重負。檢測能力不足以確認病毒感染的範圍與程度，更不用說阻斷病毒傳播。但距離疫苗成功研製，還有12到18個月。
美國政府在避免即刻爆發的大災難方面做了紮實的工作。終極考驗是能否控制住疫情蔓延、扭轉局勢，且疫情逆轉的方式和規模能保持住公眾對美國人自我管理能力的信心。無論這場抗擊危機的戰鬥多麼浩大、多麼必要，都不應擠掉這個緊迫的任務：為過渡到新冠疫情後的新秩序建立一個平行機制。
各國領導人主要在國家層面處理這場危機，但這種病毒對社會的穿透力是不分國界的。雖然病毒對人類健康的侵襲是一時的——至少希望如此，但它所引發的政治和經濟動盪可能會持續幾代人。沒有一個國家，包括美國在內，僅憑一國之力就能戰勝病毒。應對眼下亟待解決的問題，最終必須同全球合作的願景和方案相結合。如果我們不能雙管齊下，那麼在兩個問題上都會面臨最壞的結果。
如果借鑑馬歇爾計劃和曼哈頓計劃的設計經驗，美國必須在三個領域做出巨大努力。第一，增強全球對傳染病的抵禦能力。醫學科學領域的成功，從脊髓灰質炎疫苗研製，到天花的根除，再到依託人工智能和統計技術的醫學診斷不斷湧現的奇蹟，都讓我們陷入了危險的自滿情緒。我們需要開發控制傳染病的新辦法和新技術，以及足以覆蓋大規模人口的疫苗。市、州和地區必須站在科學前沿奠定基礎、協同規劃並積極探索，時刻準備保護其民眾免受流行病的侵害。
第二，努力治癒世界經濟的創傷。全球領導人從2008年金融危機中吸取了重大教訓。當前的經濟危機更為複雜：從蔓延速度和全球範圍來看，新冠疫情引發的經濟收縮是史上未見的。此外，採取必要的公共衛生措施，如保持社交距離、關閉學校和企業，也加劇了經濟陣痛。我們還需要相關計劃來減輕疫情或將對世界最脆弱人群造成的混亂影響。
第三，維護自由世界秩序的原則。現代政府創建的傳奇始於由強大的統治者保護著的、被城牆圍繞的城市。這些統治者，有的專制、有的仁慈，但都強大到足以保護民眾免受外敵侵略。啟蒙思想家重新構建了這一概念，認為合法國家的目的是滿足人民的基本需求：安全、秩序、經濟福祉和正義。個體無法憑一己之力獲得這些。然而在一個繁榮有賴於全球貿易和人員流動的時代，這場大流行促使人們重建高牆，引發了一場不合時宜的“懷舊”。
全世界的民主國家都需要捍衛和維持他們的啟蒙價值觀。如果全球從權力與合法性的平衡中退縮，將導致社會契約在國家層面和國際層面的瓦解。然而，合法性與權力的平衡是延續千年的問題，無法在抗擊新冠疫情的努力中同步得到解決。無論是國內政治還是國際外交，各方都需要剋制，應分清輕重緩急。
在突出部戰役中倖存的我們，走向了一個日益繁榮和人類尊嚴得到提高的世界。今天，我們站在一個劃時代的歷史節點。各國領導人面臨的歷史性考驗就是：應對危機，同時創建未來。一旦考驗失敗，世界將烈火燒身。
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