Coronavirus Crisis Management in Three Phases
新冠病毒危機管理的三個階段
March 30, 2020March 30, 2020 by Sue Doerfler 翻譯by虞老師
As they manage coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic impacts, organizations will undergo a three-phase response that will shape their future operations.
在管理冠狀病毒（COVID-19）大流行影響時，組織將經歷三個階段的響應，這將決定他們的未來運營。
“The first phase, which we are in right now, is considering short-term impacts,” says Chris Sawchuk, a principal and global procurement advisory practice leader at The Hackett Group, the Miami-based business consultancy. “In many ways, you can call it crisis response or crisis management.” This first response is often reactive and very human-based, as companies and their employees must deal with safety issues and such other measures as working from home, he says.
“我們目前處於第一階段，正在考慮短期影響，” 總部位於邁阿密的商業諮詢公司The Hackett Group的首席和全球採購諮詢業務負責人Chris Sawchuk說。 “在許多方面，您可以將其稱為危機應對或危機管理。” 他說，這種第一反應通常是反應性的，並且非常人性化，因為公司及其員工必須處理安全問題以及諸如在家工作等其他措施。
“There’s also a midterm response that will begin about three months out, and last maybe through the next year,” Sawchuk says. This period will be one of recession-management, he says, referring to predictions that the U.S. economy likely is moving into a recession.
Sawchuk說： “還有一箇中期應對措施，大約從三個月後開始，持續到下一年。” 這段時期將是衰退管理的時期，指的是美國經濟可能正在陷入衰退的預測。
The third phase — the post-crisis, post-recession period of timewhere companies focus on agility — is critical for success moving forward. “The idea that we go back to the same operating model that we’ve always used isn’t going to work,” Sawchuk says. “This crisis is stress-testing so much — relating to our companies, families, the economy, globally. Companies will put a lot of effort into understanding what they did well and didn’t do well, whether it’s across their supply chains, how they deal with demand” or other factors.
第三階段是經濟衰退後的時期，企業專注于敏捷性，這對於其取得成功至關重要。Sawchuk說：“我們回到一直使用的相同運營模式的想法行不通。” “這場危機是如此巨大的壓力測試-與我們的公司，家庭，經濟以及全球有關。 無論是在整個供應鏈中，還是在處理需求方面，公司都會付出很多努力來了解他們的優劣之處。”
Level of Response
反應水平
Achieving agility is the focus of a recent report by The Hackett Group. The CPO Agenda: Become a Partner for Enterprise Agility discusses the challenges facing today’s CPOs and offers a service-delivery model — a framework that details actions to mitigate those challenges through agility. In the future, organizations will rethink how their supply chains are designed, with agility and risk becoming bigger drivers and cost no longer being the main driver, says Sawchuk, one of the report’s authors.
Hackett Group最近的一份報告的重點是實現敏捷性。 CPO議程：成為企業敏捷性的合作伙伴，討論了當今CPO面臨的挑戰，並提供了服務交付模型，該框架詳細說明了通過敏捷性緩解這些挑戰的行動。 報告的作者之一Sawchuk說，未來，組織將重新考慮其供應鏈的設計方式，敏捷性和風險將成為更大的驅動力，而成本不再是主要驅動力 。
Josh Nelson, associate principal, strategy and transformation at The Hackett Group, says that agility is often considered in two ways:
Hackett集團戰略與轉型副校長Josh Nelson說，敏捷性通常通過兩種方式考慮：
•Operational agility. How quickly can you respond in the short term? Do you have the flexibility to turn on surge capacity? Is there distribution flexibility to get product delivered quicker?
運營敏捷性。 短期內您能多快做出回應？ 您是否具有打開電湧容量的靈活性？ 有分銷靈活性可以更快地交付產品嗎？
•Structural agility. How can the network be designed so there is flexibility for the midterm and long-term? Can the network be flexed up or down without jeopardizing distribution costs? Can new capacity or suppliers be added quickly, in response to market requirements?
結構敏捷性。 如何設計網絡，以便為中長期提供靈活性？ 可以在不影響分銷成本的情況下靈活調整網絡規模嗎？ 是否可以根據市場需求快速增加新的產能或供應商？
“What we’re looking at now is the operational agility aspect,” Nelson says. “Some firms that have invested at some level in operational agility can respond in the short term, they have some additional capacity or firepower. But the firms that will really be successful in the longer term are the ones that have structural agility” — the ones that can shed costs, quickly add capacity and respond to the new economy.
尼爾森說：“我們現在所關注的是運營敏捷性方面。” “一些在運營敏捷性上進行了一定程度投資的公司可以在短期內做出回應，它們具有一些額外的能力或火力。 但是，從長遠來看真正成功的公司是具有結構敏捷性的公司” –可以降低成本，快速增加產能並應對新經濟的公司。
The coronavirus pandemic is causing a demand shock, he says. But the companies with structural agility facing high demand will be able to turn on suppliers and respond, while their competitors are struggling, he says. Structurally agile companies facing a reduction in demand will be able “to turn off the supply chain and are not going to have an influx of inventory and excess costs,” he says.
他說，冠狀病毒大流行正在引起需求衝擊。 但是結構敏捷，面臨高需求的公司將能夠推動供應商並做出回應，而競爭對手卻陷入困境。 他說，面臨需求減少的結構敏捷的公司將能夠“關閉供應鏈，而不會大量湧入庫存和超額成本”。
Learning from Crises
從危機中學習
Experiencing such a crisis as the coronavirus pandemic can help companies manage when faced with future supply chain shocks. “We drew parallels to the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster that occurred almost 10 years ago, where a couple industries — automotive and electronics — were really impacted,” Nelson says. “With the coronavirus pandemic, there was an expectation that there would be large electronics outages and closing of car plants. Those industries learned from Fukushima and they had alternates or backups.”
經歷冠狀病毒大流行等危機，可以幫助公司在面對未來供應鏈衝擊時進行管理。 尼爾森說：“我們將近10年前發生的福島核電站災難與之相提並論，當時汽車和電子業等兩個行業確實受到了影響。” “隨著冠狀病毒大流行，人們預計會有大量電子設備停運並關閉汽車工廠。 這些產業是從福島中學到的，並且有替代品或備用品。”
He continues: “The coronavirus is hitting a bigger swath of industries — and they will learn from it, just like the automotive and electronic companies did. They will develop secondary sources of supply. They’re going to develop some flexibility to move production across regions or geographies. They don’t want to have a repeat. It will take some time, but it is a capability that they will keep on the agenda for the coming years.”
他繼續說道：“冠狀病毒正在衝擊更廣泛的行業，他們將像汽車和電子公司一樣從中學到東西。 他們將開發第二供應來源。 他們將提高靈活性，以跨地區或地區轉移生產。 他們不想重複。 這將需要一些時間，但這是他們將在未來幾年保持在議程上的能力。”
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