摘要：2018年禮來公司剝離其動物保健業務，精簡專注於製藥業務的發展，處於增長熱潮的邊緣，2019年，總收入預計將增長約4%，至251億至256億美元之間。而強生承認，2019年的銷售收入很可能會停滯。
Two of America's oldest healthcare stocks have been acting out of character lately. After years of stagnation, shares of Eli Lilly surged in 2018 along with sales of younger products that have more room to grow. Over the past year, Johnson & Johnson shares have taken an unusual dip due to fear of imminent talc lawsuits and ongoing pricing pressure for pharmaceuticals.
最近，美國兩家歷史最悠久的醫療保健股票表現不佳。經過多年的停滯，禮來（Eli Lilly）公司的股票在2018年隨著更有增長空間的年輕產品的銷售大幅上漲。在過去的一年裡，強生的股價出現了不同尋常的下跌，原因是擔心即將發生的滑稽關係訴訟和製藥公司持續面臨的定價壓力。
While you could take advantage of J&J's recently reduced price, chasing Eli Lilly higher might be a better option. Let's look at reasons to buy both of these stocks right now to figure out which is best.
雖然你可以利用強生（J&J）公司最近降低的價格，追逐禮來（Eli Lilly）更高可能是一個更好的選擇。讓我們看看現在買這兩隻股票的原因，找出哪隻股票最好。
Eli Lilly divested its animal health business last year and now it's a streamlined pharmaceutical company on the edge of a growth spurt. Lilly offered insurers deep discounts that limited sales growth to just 5% during the fourth quarter, but the strategy's working. Despite generic competition for Cialis and Strattera, pharmaceutical sales volume rose 11% compared to a year earlier.
禮來（Eli Lilly）公司去年剝離了其動物保健業務，現在是一家精簡的製藥公司，處於增長熱潮的邊緣。禮來（Lilly）向保險公司提供了大幅折扣，將第四季度的銷售增長限制在5%，但這一策略起到了作用。儘管 Cialis 和 Strattera 面臨仿製藥競爭，但藥品銷量同比增長11%。
The Centers for Disease Control thinks 9.4% of the U.S. population has diabetes, about 90% of whom develop the condition in adulthood. Some of Lilly's most successful drugs treat diabetes, and it looks like Lilly's strategy to make its products easily accessible for as many patients as possible is working. Despite lower realized prices, sales of a low-cost version of Sanofi's (NASDAQ: SNY) Lantus, called Basaglar, surged 85% to $801 million last year. Sales of Lilly's diabetes tablet, Jardiance, jumped 47% last year to $658 million, and Trulicity sales soared 58% last year to $3.2 billion.
美國疾病控制中心認為，美國9.4%的人口患有糖尿病，其中約90%的人成年後患有糖尿病。Lilly 的一些最成功的藥物治療糖尿病，看起來禮來（Lilly）的策略是讓儘可能多的病人都能很容易地獲得它的產品。儘管實際價格較低，但名為 Basaglar 的低成本版賽諾菲（Sanofi）（ NASDAQ ： SNY ）Lantus 去年的銷售額飆升85%，至8.01億美元。去年，禮來（Lilly）公司的糖尿病藥物 Jardiance 的銷售額增長了47%，達到6.58億美元，Trulicity 的銷售額去年飆升了58%，達到32億美元。
Late last year, Lilly launched a new monthly migraine injection called Emgality. An estimated 38 million Americans suffer from migraines, and Emgality is one of three new treatments that can help many of them experience fewer headaches each month.
去年晚些時候，禮來（Lilly）公司推出了一個新的每月偏頭痛注射稱為艾姆加利蒂。估計有3800萬美國人患有偏頭痛，而 Emgality 是三種新療法之一，可以幫助他們中的許多人每個月經歷更少的頭痛。
Last November, Lilly also submitted an application for an acute migraine pain reliever called lasmiditan, which could earn approval this year. If Lilly's as successful at securing patient access to its headache drugs as it's been in the diabetes space, annual migraine sales could soar past $5 billion by 2022.
去年11月，禮來（Lilly）還提交了一份名為 lasmitan 的急性偏頭痛止痛藥的申請，有望在今年獲得批准。如果禮來（Lilly）公司像在糖尿病領域一樣成功地確保患者獲得頭痛藥物，那麼到2022年，偏頭痛的年銷售額可能會飆升至50億美元以上。
Earlier this year, Lilly acquired Loxo Oncology, which gave Lilly a new cancer treatment that's already on the market plus a lung cancer candidate that could launch in 2020. In 2019, total revenue is expected to rise around 4% to a range between $25.1 billion and $25.6 billion. On the bottom line, Lilly thinks the $8.1 billion acquisition of Loxo will hold adjusted earnings to a range between $5.55 and $5.65 per share, which is just 2% higher than last year at the high end.
今年早些時候，禮來公司收購了 Loxo 腫瘤公司，這使禮來（Lilly）公司獲得了一種新的癌症治療，已經上市，還有一種肺癌的候選藥物可能在2020年上市。2019年，總收入預計將增長約4%，至251億至256億美元之間。禮來（Lilly）認為，以81億美元收購 Loxo 的交易將使調整後的每股收益在5.55美元至5.65美元之間，僅比去年的高端水平高出2%。
The world's largest healthcare company generated a whopping $81.6 billion in total sales last year, and pharmaceuticals were responsible for more than half of the conglomerate's top line. In 2018, annual consumer sales rose just 1.8% and the medical device segment reported a smaller 1.5% gain. Luckily, Johnson & Johnson's pharmaceutical segment stepped up and allowed total revenue to rise 7% higher last year.
去年，這家全球最大的醫療保健公司的總銷售額高達816億美元，其中製藥公司佔了該集團總銷售額的一半以上。2018年，年度消費者銷售額僅增長1.8%，醫療器械板塊增幅較小，為1.5%。幸運的是，強生公司的製藥業務有所增長，去年總收入增長了7%。
The medical device segment could deliver some exciting gains in the years ahead now that Johnson & Johnson has a new robot for conducting lung cancer biopsies. The recently acquired Monarch platform involves a tiny endoscope that allows physicians to visualize the inner lung and reach nodules that they couldn't safely pull samples from earlier. The American Cancer Society thinks lung cancer will claim 142,670 lives in 2019 from just 228,150 new diagnoses. Lung cancer's dismal prognosis could improve a great deal if oncologists were able to grab more samples from hard-to-reach tumors.
在未來幾年，醫療器械領域可能會帶來一些令人興奮的進步，因為強生公司有一個新的機器人來進行肺癌活檢。最近獲得的 Monarch 平臺包括一個微小的內窺鏡，可以讓醫生看到內肺併到達結節，他們不能安全地從早期提取樣本。美國癌症協會認為，在2019年，肺癌將從228150例新診斷中奪走142670人的生命。如果腫瘤專家能夠從難以觸及的腫瘤中獲取更多樣本，肺癌的糟糕預後將會大大改善。
Johnson & Johnson's role in the growing space for robot-assisted surgical devices will help push the company's giant needle forward. Unfortunately, competition for Remicade and pricing pressures from rebate-hungry insurers and their intermediaries will pull that needle in the opposite direction. Remicade sales fell 16% to $5.3 billion last year, and lower-cost biosimilar versions of the anti-inflammation injection will continue to shrink sales of J&J's brand.
強生公司在機器人輔助手術設備不斷增長的空間中所扮演的角色，將有助於推動公司向前發展。不幸的是，對 Remicade 的競爭，以及渴望回扣的保險公司及其中介機構的定價壓力，將把這一針向相反方向拉去。Remicade 去年的銷售額下降了16%，至53億美元，低成本的生物仿製藥的抗炎注射劑將繼續縮減強生（J&J）品牌的銷售。
A ketamine nasal spray branded as Spravato will probably earn approval this year to help patients with treatment-resistant depression. Using an anesthetic from the 1960s that's been a party drug since the 1990s to treat depression in 2019 isn't J&J's most exciting contribution to medicine, but it could drive blockbuster sales. Treatment-resistant depression affects an estimated 100 million people worldwide, and the Food and Drug Administration hasn't approved a new option for this underserved population in decades.
一種以 Spravo 為品牌的氯胺酮鼻噴霧劑可能會在今年獲得批准，以幫助有治療耐藥性抑鬱症的患者。從20世紀60年代開始使用麻醉劑，這種麻醉劑自20世紀90年代以來一直是一種用於治療2019年抑鬱症的派對藥物，並不是強生（J&J）對醫藥的最令人興奮的貢獻，但它可能會推動暢銷藥物的銷售。抗治療抑鬱症影響到全世界約1億人，美國食品藥品監督管理局（Food and Drug Administration）（ FoodandDrugAdministration ）幾十年來一直未批准這一服務不足人口的新選擇。
Earlier this year, Johnson & Johnson frightened the market by admitting top-line sales would probably stagnate in 2019, but another year of bottom-line growth seems likely. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to rise between 5.7% to 7.6% this year, which is a few percentage points further than Eli Lilly's expectations for 2019.
今年早些時候，強生( Johnson & Johnson )承認，2019年的銷售收入很可能會停滯，這令市場感到恐慌，但又一年的利潤增長似乎很可能。預計調整後的每股收益今年將增長5.7%至7.6%，比禮來（Eli Lilly）對2019年的預期高出幾個百分點。
As a much larger operation, Johnson & Johnson's odds of achieving annual growth at a double-digit rate over the next decade are slim. Since the company offers stable cash flows that will almost certainly keep moving in the right direction, though, its stock trades at a high valuation, which will make it difficult to earn a market-beating return in the decade ahead.
作為一項規模更大的業務，強生未來十年實現兩位數年增長率的可能性很小。儘管如此，由於該公司提供穩定的現金流，幾乎肯定會繼續朝著正確的方向發展，其股票的估值很高，這將使其難以在未來十年獲得超過市場的回報。
Shares of J&J have been trading at 15.9 times this year's earnings expectations, which is only 4% less than the average S&P 500 stock. Eli Lilly shares have reached 22.3 times forward estimates, but the company isn't carrying as much baggage uphill.
強生（J&J）股價目前的市盈率為15.9倍，僅比標準普爾500指數平均水平低4%。禮來（Eli Lilly）股價已達到預期的22.3倍，但該公司沒有像過去那樣揹負太多行李。
A revenue stream entirely dependent on drug sales will make Eli Lilly much riskier than J&J, but the narrow focus gives Lilly a strong chance to provide market-beating gains. If that's where your interests lie, then Lilly's the better stock to buy now.
完全依賴藥品銷售的收入流將使禮來（Eli Lilly）公司的風險比強生（J&J）公司高得多，但狹隘的關注使禮來（Lilly）公司有很大的機會提供超越市場的收益。如果這就是你的利益所在，那麼禮來（Lilly）現在買的更好的股票。
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