不代表本机构观点
《特朗普如何将叙利亚卖给普京？》
编译：学术plus
Russia is in search of the ultimate deal with Syria.
俄罗斯正在谋求与美国就叙利亚问题达成最终协议。
At present, Washington is pressing Moscow to halt Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s military offensive into southwestern Syria; Moscow, meanwhile, wants Washington to abandon the areas in Syria’s northeast that it has liberated from the Islamic State. With a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin looming, Russia may try to lure the United States into a deal that would largely benefit Assad, Iran, and the violent extremists they inspire. Or, Moscow may calculate that it can have its way without a deal.
目前，华盛顿正在迫使莫斯科制止叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德在叙利亚西南部的军事攻势; 而莫斯科希望华盛顿放弃它从伊斯兰国得到的叙利亚东北部地区。随着唐纳德特朗普总统和弗拉基米尔普京总统之间的峰会迫在眉睫，俄罗斯可能试图引诱美国达成一项有利于阿萨德，伊朗的交易。或者莫斯科可能会算计如何在没有交易的情况下取得成功。
The Assad regime is attacking an area designated a “de-escalation zone” under a 2017 understanding between Russia, Jordan, and the United States. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley recently implored the Assad regime to stop violating the ceasefire in Syria’s southwest, and said that the United States expects Russia to use its influence on Damascus to convince it to halt its destabilizing actions. “Russia will ultimately bear responsibility for any further escalations in Syria,” she said.
根据2017年俄罗斯，约旦和美国之间的谅解，阿萨德政权正在攻击一个“降级区”。美国驻联合国大使黑莉最近要求阿萨德政权停止在叙利亚南部违反停火协议的行动，并表示美国期待俄罗斯利用其对大马士革的影响力来说服它停止其破坏稳定的行动。“俄罗斯将最终承担叙利亚局势升级的责任”她说。
Jordan has said they will take no more refugees, but if there’s a human tsunami wave of panicked people they will come under great pressure from the UN and NGOs to act in a humanitarian manner, while Israel fears the impact of those fleeing the mayhem on Jordan’s stability. Jordan’s King Abdullah and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both want Putin to muzzle Assad, his client. But news reports suggest that Russian aircrafts are joining the bloodshed.
约旦已经表示他们将不再接受难民，但如果出现大规模难民潮，他们将迫于联合国和非政府组织的巨大压力，采取人道主义行动，而以色列也担心逃难者影响地区稳定。约旦国王阿卜杜拉和以色列总理本雅明内塔尼亚胡都希望普京能让阿萨德收手。但新闻报道显示，俄罗斯也加入了杀戮。
Still, for Moscow, Assad-regime operations in the southwest are risky. True, the image of a triumphant Assad is essential to Putin’s domestic political narrative of a resurgent Russia. Yet Moscow must deal with a client and an Iranian partner whose actions, like chemical-weapons strikes, sometimes risk American intervention, or strikes from Israel when it perceives an Iranian threat in Syria’s southwest. There is no doubt that Putin wants Assad in the saddle indefinitely—the challenge is to keep him and the Iranians from doing stupid stuff in the southwest.
对莫斯科来说，阿萨德政权在西南地区的行动风险很大。诚然阿萨德的胜利形象对于普京在俄罗斯的国内政治叙事至关重要。然而，莫斯科必须与叙利亚和伊朗打交道，他们的行为有时会招致美国的干预，或者当以色列在叙利亚西南部对伊朗的威胁发起打击。毫无疑问，普京希望阿萨德无限期地执政，但让他们和伊朗人在西南部不要犯傻确是一个挑战。
According to Haley, recent Syrian operations—barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and air strikes on residential neighborhoods—have led to the displacement of more than 11,000 people. If the regime’s campaign prompts yet another wave of refugees, it would come as little surprise.
根据黑莉的说法，叙利亚政府最近的行动导致超过11,000人流离失所。如果再次引发另一波难民潮，那就不足为奇了。
What might Putin do to turn a volatile situation to Assad’s advantage? He may counsel his client to cool it in the short term to give him a chance to work on his American counterpart. A victory over ISIS in the northeast by the United States and its allies would produce the one thing Russia and Assad fear most: an attractive alternative to an incompetent and corrupt crime family.
普京可能会怎样将不稳定局势转化为阿萨德的优势？他可以建议他的代理人在短期内先让局势降温，让他有机会与他的美国同行一起工作。美国及其盟国在东北地区对伊斯兰国的胜利将产生俄罗斯和阿萨德最害怕的一件事：对于他们而言，这是一个有吸引力的选择。
One could imagine Putin offering Assad a deal designed to restore him as the ruler of all of Syria. First, he would need to assure Trump during their upcoming meeting that Assad’s offensive in the southwest will soon conclude, and that he would send in Russian forces to enforce a de-escalation zone. In return, he would ask Trump to quickly move U.S. forces out of Syria, allowing him to declare victory. Once the Americans had put Syria in their rear-view mirror, Putin might offer Assad and the Iranians the right to occupy oil-rich eastern Syria, with an assurance that Russian and Syrian forces will gradually reclaim the southwest, piece by piece.
我们可以想象普京为阿萨德提供的协议，旨在使他成为叙利亚的统治者。首先他需要在即将举行的会议上向特朗普保证，阿萨德在西南部的进攻很快就会结束，他将派遣俄罗斯军队强制执行降级区。作为回报，他会要求特朗普迅速将美军撤离叙利亚，让他宣布胜利。一旦美国人将叙利亚置于他们的后视镜中，普京可能会向阿萨德和伊朗人提供占领石油丰富的叙利亚东部的权利，并保证俄罗斯和叙利亚军队将逐步重新开垦西南部。
President Trump might be tempted to take such a deal—a temptation worth resisting. A nearly four-year effort against Islamist extremism would be wasted, as undisciplined Iranian-led militiamen and rapacious regime gunmen occupy an area rich in petroleum and agricultural resources. The alternative—proper stabilization, starting with the rebuilding of Raqqa, the former capital of ISIS—will be neither easy nor quick. Allies and partners will be needed. But giving in to Russia may render all of Syria ungovernable for decades, giving ISIS 2.0 and its enablers a life-saving and gratuitous victory.
特朗普总统可能会接受这样的交易，打击伊斯兰极端主义的四年努力将被浪费，无纪律的伊朗民兵和贪婪的政权武装分子占据了一个石油和农业资源丰富的地区。另一种选择是：从重建伊斯兰国的前首都拉卡开始，逐步稳定局势，这不容易也不会速成，还需要盟友和合作伙伴协助。
向俄罗斯屈服可能会使叙利亚未来数十年无法治理，令ISIS 2.0及其支持者死灰复燃。
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