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《特朗普如何將敘利亞賣給普京？》
編譯：學術plus
Russia is in search of the ultimate deal with Syria.
俄羅斯正在謀求與美國就敘利亞問題達成最終協議。
At present, Washington is pressing Moscow to halt Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s military offensive into southwestern Syria; Moscow, meanwhile, wants Washington to abandon the areas in Syria’s northeast that it has liberated from the Islamic State. With a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin looming, Russia may try to lure the United States into a deal that would largely benefit Assad, Iran, and the violent extremists they inspire. Or, Moscow may calculate that it can have its way without a deal.
目前，華盛頓正在迫使莫斯科制止敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德在敘利亞西南部的軍事攻勢; 而莫斯科希望華盛頓放棄它從伊斯蘭國得到的敘利亞東北部地區。隨著唐納德特朗普總統和弗拉基米爾普京總統之間的峰會迫在眉睫，俄羅斯可能試圖引誘美國達成一項有利於阿薩德，伊朗的交易。或者莫斯科可能會算計如何在沒有交易的情況下取得成功。
The Assad regime is attacking an area designated a “de-escalation zone” under a 2017 understanding between Russia, Jordan, and the United States. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley recently implored the Assad regime to stop violating the ceasefire in Syria’s southwest, and said that the United States expects Russia to use its influence on Damascus to convince it to halt its destabilizing actions. “Russia will ultimately bear responsibility for any further escalations in Syria,” she said.
根據2017年俄羅斯，約旦和美國之間的諒解，阿薩德政權正在攻擊一個“降級區”。美國駐聯合國大使黑莉最近要求阿薩德政權停止在敘利亞南部違反停火協議的行動，並表示美國期待俄羅斯利用其對大馬士革的影響力來說服它停止其破壞穩定的行動。“俄羅斯將最終承擔敘利亞局勢升級的責任”她說。
Jordan has said they will take no more refugees, but if there’s a human tsunami wave of panicked people they will come under great pressure from the UN and NGOs to act in a humanitarian manner, while Israel fears the impact of those fleeing the mayhem on Jordan’s stability. Jordan’s King Abdullah and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both want Putin to muzzle Assad, his client. But news reports suggest that Russian aircrafts are joining the bloodshed.
約旦已經表示他們將不再接受難民，但如果出現大規模難民潮，他們將迫於聯合國和非政府組織的巨大壓力，採取人道主義行動，而以色列也擔心逃難者影響地區穩定。約旦國王阿卜杜拉和以色列總理本雅明內塔尼亞胡都希望普京能讓阿薩德收手。但新聞報道顯示，俄羅斯也加入了殺戮。
Still, for Moscow, Assad-regime operations in the southwest are risky. True, the image of a triumphant Assad is essential to Putin’s domestic political narrative of a resurgent Russia. Yet Moscow must deal with a client and an Iranian partner whose actions, like chemical-weapons strikes, sometimes risk American intervention, or strikes from Israel when it perceives an Iranian threat in Syria’s southwest. There is no doubt that Putin wants Assad in the saddle indefinitely—the challenge is to keep him and the Iranians from doing stupid stuff in the southwest.
對莫斯科來說，阿薩德政權在西南地區的行動風險很大。誠然阿薩德的勝利形象對於普京在俄羅斯的國內政治敘事至關重要。然而，莫斯科必須與敘利亞和伊朗打交道，他們的行為有時會招致美國的干預，或者當以色列在敘利亞西南部對伊朗的威脅發起打擊。毫無疑問，普京希望阿薩德無限期地執政，但讓他們和伊朗人在西南部不要犯傻確是一個挑戰。
According to Haley, recent Syrian operations—barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and air strikes on residential neighborhoods—have led to the displacement of more than 11,000 people. If the regime’s campaign prompts yet another wave of refugees, it would come as little surprise.
根據黑莉的說法，敘利亞政府最近的行動導致超過11,000人流離失所。如果再次引發另一波難民潮，那就不足為奇了。
What might Putin do to turn a volatile situation to Assad’s advantage? He may counsel his client to cool it in the short term to give him a chance to work on his American counterpart. A victory over ISIS in the northeast by the United States and its allies would produce the one thing Russia and Assad fear most: an attractive alternative to an incompetent and corrupt crime family.
普京可能會怎樣將不穩定局勢轉化為阿薩德的優勢？他可以建議他的代理人在短期內先讓局勢降溫，讓他有機會與他的美國同行一起工作。美國及其盟國在東北地區對伊斯蘭國的勝利將產生俄羅斯和阿薩德最害怕的一件事：對於他們而言，這是一個有吸引力的選擇。
One could imagine Putin offering Assad a deal designed to restore him as the ruler of all of Syria. First, he would need to assure Trump during their upcoming meeting that Assad’s offensive in the southwest will soon conclude, and that he would send in Russian forces to enforce a de-escalation zone. In return, he would ask Trump to quickly move U.S. forces out of Syria, allowing him to declare victory. Once the Americans had put Syria in their rear-view mirror, Putin might offer Assad and the Iranians the right to occupy oil-rich eastern Syria, with an assurance that Russian and Syrian forces will gradually reclaim the southwest, piece by piece.
我們可以想象普京為阿薩德提供的協議，旨在使他成為敘利亞的統治者。首先他需要在即將舉行的會議上向特朗普保證，阿薩德在西南部的進攻很快就會結束，他將派遣俄羅斯軍隊強制執行降級區。作為回報，他會要求特朗普迅速將美軍撤離敘利亞，讓他宣佈勝利。一旦美國人將敘利亞置於他們的後視鏡中，普京可能會向阿薩德和伊朗人提供佔領石油豐富的敘利亞東部的權利，並保證俄羅斯和敘利亞軍隊將逐步重新開墾西南部。
President Trump might be tempted to take such a deal—a temptation worth resisting. A nearly four-year effort against Islamist extremism would be wasted, as undisciplined Iranian-led militiamen and rapacious regime gunmen occupy an area rich in petroleum and agricultural resources. The alternative—proper stabilization, starting with the rebuilding of Raqqa, the former capital of ISIS—will be neither easy nor quick. Allies and partners will be needed. But giving in to Russia may render all of Syria ungovernable for decades, giving ISIS 2.0 and its enablers a life-saving and gratuitous victory.
特朗普總統可能會接受這樣的交易，打擊伊斯蘭極端主義的四年努力將被浪費，無紀律的伊朗民兵和貪婪的政權武裝分子佔據了一個石油和農業資源豐富的地區。另一種選擇是：從重建伊斯蘭國的前首都拉卡開始，逐步穩定局勢，這不容易也不會速成，還需要盟友和合作夥伴協助。
向俄羅斯屈服可能會使敘利亞未來數十年無法治理，令ISIS 2.0及其支持者死灰復燃。
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