一波石油破产浪潮正在来袭

翻译 | 周梓洛

A wave of oil bankruptcies is on the way

一波石油破产浪潮正在来袭

April 2, 2020

By Matt Egan, CNN Business

The first domino in the oil industry has fallen.

石油工业的第一块多米诺骨牌已经倒下。

Whiting Petroleum, once a rising star in the shale industry, filed for Chapter 11 protection Wednesday. The oil driller survived for years at $50-a-barrel oil. But the recent collapse to $20 proved unbearable, sparking the first major oil bankruptcy of the current crisis.

惠廷石油公司于周三申请破产保护，该公司曾是页岩气行业的一颗新星。惠廷石油公司多年来一直保持着每桶50美元的价格。但由于近期油价暴跌至20美元，该公司无法承受，成为这场危机中首个破产的主要石油公司。

Whiting surely won't be the last. The coronavirus pandemic has crushed the oil industry, setting off a swift and unprecedented decline in demand for gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. That pain has been amplified by an epic price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a mountain of debt on oil company balance sheets and the virtual shutdown of the junk bond market.

惠廷石油公司肯定不会是最后一个牺牲品。冠状病毒大流行摧毁了石油工业，导致汽油、航空燃料和柴油的市场需求急速空前下降。沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的石油价格大战，石油公司资产负债表上堆积如山的债务，以及垃圾债券市场的实质性关闭，都放大了这种行业阵痛。

Those factors will almost surely set off a spike in oil patch bankruptcies in the coming months. And unlike the 2014-2016 oil crash, some of those companies may not survive.

几乎可以肯定地说，这些因素会在未来几个月内引发石油企业破产数量的激增。与2014-2016年的石油危机不同，部分石油公司可能无法在当前的危机中生存下来。

"There will be a wave of bankruptcy filings this year," said Spencer Cutter, credit analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“今年将出现一波破产申请。”彭博资讯信贷分析师斯潘塞•卡特表示。

Nearly 100 US oil and gas producers could file for Chapter 11 over the next year, according to Buddy Clark, co-chair of the energy practice at Houston law firm Haynes and Boone.

位于休斯顿的海博律师事务所能源业务联合主任的巴迪•克拉克表示，美国近100家油气生产商可能在明年申请破产保护。

That would nearly match the total number of bankruptcies in 2015 and 2016 combined when oil prices crashed to $26 a barrel.

这几乎相当于2015、2016年石油价格暴跌至每桶26美元时，破产油气企业数目的总和。

"It's not just the guys that levered up in the mad rush of late 2010 to 2014 and put on way too much debt. Some of these companies are well structured," Clark said.

“不仅仅是那些2010年末到2014年疯狂举债而负债过多的公司，其中一些申请破产保护的公司结构良好。”克拉克说。

30% of junk energy bonds could default

30%的垃圾能源债券可能违约

The obvious problem for the oil industry is US oil prices have plunged by two-thirds since early January to 18-year lows. March was crude's worst month since oil futures started trading on NYMEX in 1983.

石油行业面临的一个明显问题是，从1月初开始，美国油价已暴跌三分之二，跌至18年以来的最低点。自1983年纽约商品交易所开放原油期货交易以来，今年3月是原油市场表现最差的一个月。

"In any business, if the sale price of a product falls 70% overnight, even companies with the best plans will struggle to overcome that," said Clark.

克拉克说:“在任何行业，如果一件产品的销售价格一夜之间暴跌70%，即使拥有最好计划的公司也难以克服这个困境。”

It's not just that prices have collapsed. At $20 a barrel they are now sharply below breakeven levels across every single major oil-producing region in the United States.

不仅仅是价格暴跌。目前，每桶20美元的油价大大低于美国所有主要产油区的盈亏平衡水平。

Even companies in the Permian Basin, the low-cost oilfield in West Texas that has led America's energy boom, require an average of $49 a barrel to profitably drill, according to a survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve.

根据达拉斯联邦储备银行的一项调查，即使是在以低成本开采闻名、引领美国能源热潮的西德克萨斯州二叠纪盆地油田，那里的公司也需要平均每桶49美元的价格才能进行有利可图的钻探。

At $40 a barrel, only 15% of oil companies would survive for a year or less, the Dallas Fed survey found. Another 24% of oil companies might be able to hold out for one to two years.

达拉斯联邦储备银行的调查发现，按照每桶40美元的价格，只有15%的石油公司能存活一年或更短的时间，另外24%的石油公司可能可以坚持一到两年。

"Many companies will be in trouble in this unprofitable environment," analysts at Bank of America wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

“在这种无利可图的大环境下，许多公司将陷入困境，”美国银行分析师周二在一份客户报告中写道。

Defaults on high-yield energy bonds could potentially spike to 30%, they added.

他们还补充道，高收益能源债券的违约率可能会升至30%。

Denver-based Whiting might not be a household name, but it was valued at nearly $5 billion in late 2018. Whiting focuses on drilling for oil in the Bakken, the high-cost North Dakota oilfield that thrived at $100 oil in the last decade but has struggled mightily since.

总部位于丹佛的惠廷石油公司或许并不是一个家喻户晓的名字，但它在2018年底的估值接近50亿美元。惠廷石油公司专注于在巴肯地区开采石油。巴肯是北达科他州的一个高成本油田，在过去10年里，它曾依赖每桶100美元的油价蓬勃发展，但此后的发展可能会一直很艰难。

"At sub-$60 oil prices, it became a slow bleed for Whiting. There was just no way they would survive with oil prices below $45 a barrel," said Cutter, the Bloomberg Intelligence analyst.

对于惠廷石油公司而言，当油价跌破每桶60美元时，公司就在缓慢地失血。而在油价低于每桶45美元的情况下，他们根本无法生存。”彭博资讯分析师卡特表示。

Whiting's bankruptcy filing lists between $1 billion and $10 billion of debt. The company said it has reached a deal with creditors to exchange $2.2 billion of debt for equity.

惠廷公司的破产申请中列出了10亿至100亿美元的债务。该公司表示，他们已与债权人达成协议，将22亿美元的债务转换为股权。

Money-losing oil companies can't refinance debt

亏损的石油公司无法完成债务再融资

Oil companies aren't just bleeding cash. They have a mountain of debt coming due, and limited ability to refinance it.

石油公司不仅仅是在消耗现金。他们有堆积如山的债务即将到期，再融资能力有限。

More than perhaps any other industry, oil benefited from a decade of extremely low borrowing costs and insatiable demand for yield among investors. The junk bond market was wide open, even to the riskiest oil companies. Cheap financing helped make the United States the world's leading oil producer.

石油行业或许比其他任何行业都更受益于十年来极低的借贷成本和投资者对收益无止境的需求。垃圾债券市场是完全开放的，甚至对风险最高的石油公司也是如此。廉价的资金帮助美国成为世界头号石油生产国。

Even before this financial catastrophe investors were growing frustrated with the oil industry's weak financial performance. Over the last decade, the energy sector of the S&P 500 was the worst performer -- by far. Wall Street demanded oil companies live within their means by spending less and paying down debt.

在这次金融灾难来临之前，投资者就对石油行业疲软的财务表现感到越来越失望。过去10年里，能源板块在标普500指数中表现最差。华尔街要求石油公司量入为出，减少开支，偿还债务。

And now that cash-strapped oil companies need to refinance their debt, the junk bond market is closed. No energy junk bonds were issued anywhere, to any company, in February and March, according to Dealogic.

现在，现金拮据的石油公司需要为他们的债务进行再融资，而垃圾债券市场已经关闭。根据研究公司迪罗基的数据，今年2月和3月，没有发生任何的能源类垃圾债券交易行为。

Not surprisingly, investors have no interest in providing more capital to money-losing firms. "That is going to force a lot of these companies over the edge," said Cutter.

这完全在意料之中，投资者对向亏损公司提供更多资金毫无兴趣。卡特表示:“这将迫使许多公司走到破产边缘。”

Red lights flashing

红灯亮起

The financial markets are signaling that more bankruptcies are coming.

金融市场正在发出更多破产信号。

据全球评级公司标普的数据，信贷不良的油气公司的比例从去年底的25%左右飙升至今年3月中旬的94%。

Bond yields in the oil sector have also spiked well above ultra-safe Treasuries. That spread has more than tripled since the beginning of the year, to 11 percentage points, according to S&P. Spreads in the oil sector are nearly twice as high as the next-closest industry (metals and mining) and they have surpassed the highs of the 2008 financial crisis.

石油行业的债券收益率也大幅飙升，远高于极为安全的美国国债。标普的数据显示，今年年初以来，这一息差扩大了两倍多，达到11个百分点。石油行业的息差几乎两倍于排名后两位的行业（金属和矿业），且已经超过了2008年金融危机时的峰值。

"The entire sector is distressed," Cutter said.

"整个行业都陷入了困境。" 卡特称。

A number of other large companies are likely to fail in the oil sector in coming months.

未来几个月，石油行业中许多大公司可能会倒闭。

Analysts say the obvious candidates are companies whose bonds are flashing red lights, including Chesapeake Energy, California Resources, Denbury Resources, Ultra Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum.

分析师表示，最有可能倒闭的是那些债务率超过警戒线的公司，包括切萨皮克能源公司、加州资源公司、丹博里原油公司、奥特拉石油公司和绿洲石油公司。

Even oil companies that recently had investment-grade credit ratings could come under pressure, including Devon Energy, Hess and former Bakken darling Continental Resources.

那些近期持有“投资级”信用评级的石油公司也可能面临压力，包括戴文能源公司、赫斯公司和前巴肯达林大陆资源公司。

Even Occidental Petroleum, the shale giant backed by legendary investor Warren Buffett, is grappling with heavy debt incurred by its ill-timed takeover last year of Anadarko Petroleum. Occidental's debt rating suffered a rare triple downgrade by Fitch Ratings last month.

即便是得到“股神”巴菲特支持的页岩气巨头西方石油公司，也在艰难应对因去年不合时宜地收购阿纳达科石油公司而产生的巨额债务。上月，惠誉罕见地将西方石油公司的债务评级下调了三次。

Occidental has cut its dividend by 86%, slashed spending, instituted pay cuts and installed a new chairman.

西方石油公司已经调低了86%的股息，削减了开支，制定了减薪方案，并任命了新的董事长。

Survival of the fittest

适者生存

The key to surviving this downturn will be how long oil prices stay below $40 a barrel.

每桶40美元以下的油价还会维持多久，将成为业内公司是否能在这场萧条中幸存下来的关键。

A rapid rally, perhaps driven by a V-shaped economic recovery, would allow many struggling oil companies to get back on their feet.

或许 V 型经济复苏的推动下，油价将迅速反弹，使许多陷入困境的石油公司重新站稳脚跟。

But a sustained downturn in prices will be catastrophic for many oil companies. Unlike the 2014-2016 oil crash, some oil companies that file for Chapter 11 may not attract the financing needed to emerge from bankruptcy.

但油价的持续下跌对许多石油公司来说将是灾难性的。与2014-2016年石油危机时的情况不同，根据《破产法》第11章，申请破产保护的一些石油公司可能无法融到走出破产困境所需的资金。

If that happens, the oil assets won't die. They would get scooped up at basement prices by whatever oil companies are left standing.

在这种情况下，这些石油资产不会消失。他们将被幸存下来的任意石油公司以极低的价格收购。

The silver lining, if there is one, is that the latest oil crash could bring about a much-needed cleansing in a terribly inefficient industry.

要说有一线希望的话，就是

"There have been too many weak companies hanging on for too long," said Jeff Wyll, senior energy analyst at Neuberger Berman.

路博迈高级能源分析师杰夫•威尔表示:“太多实力较弱的公司苟延残喘了过长时间。”

It sounds oxymoronic, but a wave of bankruptcies could be just what's needed for America's oil industry to emerge stronger and more resilient.

听起来有些矛盾，但这一波破产潮可能正是美国石油行业变得更强大、更有弹性所需要的。

閱讀更多 浙大傳媒星空 的文章

關鍵字: 一波 油价 休斯敦