新冠肺炎疫情发展至今，其变化趋势已经在各个方面无数次击穿了我们的想象力。全世界估计还没有多少人来得及做一次深刻、全面而又富有前瞻性的理性分析。
有悲观者认为：目前人类对病毒药物和疫苗的研发相当于“在用自行车追赶高速列车”，新冠肺炎病毒未来会以“候鸟模式”在南北半球之间来回流行传播，“断航”、“封国”、“封城”与“蛰居”这些极端的抗疫方式，将会成为世界各地的人们在生活中随时可能遇到的常态。人类的生存质量、总人口数量，将会断崖式地急剧下降。
有科学家乐观的表示：疫情在中国以及一些亚洲国家已经得到了良好的控制，药物及疫苗研发已进入了测试阶段。人类在历史上曾经消灭天花，几乎消灭小儿麻痹症等，当今的科学技术、医学技术较之于百年前几十年前有了很大的进步，相信新冠肺炎病毒最终能通过医学手段得到有效抑制。
然而这些未来的场景现都仅存在于我们的预想和推测中。
图为新冠肺炎疫情爆发后，冷清的纽约中央车站。
究竟这场疫情会走向何方，会给人类社会结构、政治、经济、世界格局带来多大的影响甚至变革，全球化是否会如悲观者所言走向一段大规模的衰退，还是说一切会在不久的将来重新复苏，逐步恢复正常。现在我们都没有一个确切的答案。总而言之，人类目前对于新冠肺炎病毒的了解太少了.....
/ 守望相助 / 四海同心 / 共抗疫情 /
海育国际建立了“滞留海外留学生家长群”，家长们可以通过“海育小助手”（微信：Selena007007）进群，申请入群请备注‘加滞留群’。我们将及时向大家通报疫情进展，分析局势演变，提供救助互助信息，包括紧急就医指南、医疗保险购买注意事项等。
就在几天前，比尔盖茨向公众推荐了Peter Piot博士关于COVID-19 （新冠肺炎）的“百问百答”。这份问答涵盖了科学家目前了解到的关于新冠肺炎病毒传播的方方面面，内容通俗易懂，客观严谨，还包含了专家对于这次疫情的科学阐述，其中很多问题都值得我们去深思。
比尔▪盖茨3月30日在社交媒体上表示，他在Peter Piot博士身上学到很多，并向公众推荐关于COVID-19的“百问百答”。（科学家Peter Piot博士被著称为“改变世界的英雄”，曾在上世纪70年代联合发现埃博拉病毒。）
我们今天把这篇问答的英文全文分享给大家，并对部分文字做了翻译，希望能给到大家更全面的视角来了解这场威胁到全人类的公共卫生事件。内容比较多，海育君按顺序做了分类标签，方便大家阅读查找相关话题：
01 什么是病毒？它如何传染与“存活”
02 SARS-CoV的形态、特点及传染性
03 疫苗的研发进展，难点在哪里，为何耗时
04 新冠肺炎病毒的致死率及易感人群
05 新冠肺炎与流感的对比
06 新冠肺炎病毒在世界范围如何传播
08 如何自我防护及阻断传播
09 关于病毒检测及症状判别
10 群体免疫靠谱吗
11 人类社会是否会长期受新冠病毒影响
12 Peter博士如何看待这次疫情
什么是病毒？它具有哪些特性？
1. TEDMED: Let’s start with the basics. What is a virus?
A virus is a very tiny particle of RNA or DNA genetic code protected by an outer protein wrapper.
2. TEDMED: How common are viruses?
Viruses are everywhere. It’s amazing to realize that if you add them all up, all the viruses in the world weigh more than all the living matter in the world – including all of the plants, animals and bacteria. 10% of the human genome is derived from virus DNA. The Earth truly is a “virus planet!”
病毒无处不在，地球可谓“病毒星球”。
3. TEDMED: Why is it so hard to stop a virus from spreading?
Because virus particles are so incredibly small, billions can float on tiny droplets in the air from just one cough.
4. TEDMED: Exactly how small is a virus?
Tiny. Even with a regular microscope, you can’t see a virus. 100 million viral particles of the novel coronavirus, can fit on a pinhead. That’s how incredibly small they are.
5. TEDMED: What do virus particles do?
Virus particles try to insert themselves into living cells in order to multiply, infect other cells and other hosts.
6. TEDMED: Why do viruses try to get into living cells?
6. 病毒为什么要侵入细胞？
It’s how viruses “reproduce.” Viruses act like parasites. They hijack living cells in order to force each cell to make more viruses. When a cell is hijacked, the virus sends out hundreds or thousands of copies of itself. It often kills the hijacked cell as a result.
病毒如何传染与“存活”
7. TEDMED: What does it mean to be infected with the new coronavirus, which scientists have designated “SARS-CoV2”?
It means that SARS-CoV2 has started reproducing in your body.
感染即意味着病毒开始在你体内“复制”。
8. TEDMED: What is the difference between SARS-CoV2 and COVID-19?
SARS-CoV2 is the virus; COVID-19 is the disease which that virus spreads.
SARS-CoV2 是病毒名称；COVID-19是这种病毒所传播的疾病的名称。
9. TEDMED: Is it easy for a virus to get into a living cell?
This depends in the first place whether the cell has the right receptor for the particular virus, just as a key needs a specific keyhole to work. Most viruses are blocked by our immune system or because we don’t have the right receptors for the virus to enter the cell. Thus, 99% of them are harmless to humans.
10. TEDMED: How many kinds of viruses exist, and how many of them are harmful to humans?
Of the millions of types of viruses, only a few hundred are known to harm humans. New viruses emerge all the time. Most are harmless.
约有百万计的病毒存在，其中只有几百种病毒被人类所知道是有害的。一直有新病毒的出现，但他们大多是无害的。
11. TEDMED: On average, how many particles of the virus does it take to infect you?
We really don’t know yet for SARS-CoV2. It usually takes very little.
病毒只需要非常小片段即可感染人。
SARS-CoV2的形态、特点及传染性
12. TEDMED: What does it look like?
SARS-CoV2 looks like a tiny strand of spaghetti, wound up in a ball and packed inside a shell made of protein. The shell has spikes that stick out and make it look like the corona from the sun. This family of viruses all have a similar appearance; they all look like a corona.
冠状病毒结构 3D 模拟图像，外层黄色的凸起是刺突蛋白，红色的部分为囊膜，中央粉红色螺旋状结构为 RNA 和 N 蛋白。图片来源：Wikipedia
13. TEDMED: How many different coronaviruses affect humans?
13. 有多少种冠状病毒影响人类？
There are 7 coronaviruses that have human- to-human transmission. 4 generate a mild cold. But 3 of them can be deadly, including the viruses that cause SARS and MERS, and now the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV2.
现有7种冠状病毒存在人传人。4种引发普通感冒。另外3种可谓致命，分别是SARS，MERS还有SARS-CoV2。
14. TEDMED: Why is it called the “novel” coronavirus?
Novel just means it is new to humans, meaning that this specific virus is one that we’ve never seen before. Our immune system has been evolving for 2 million years. But since our bodies have never seen this virus before, there has been no opportunity for humans to develop immunity. That lack of immunity, combined with the virus’s ability to spread easily and its relative lethality, is why the arrival of SARS-CoV2 is so disturbing.
15. TEDMED: How often does a novel virus emerge that we need to care about?
It’s rare… but it happens. Examples include the viruses that cause diseases such as HIV, SARS, MERS and a few others. It will happen again. The emergence of a novel virus is a very big problem … if it can easily spread among people and if it is harmful.
16. TEDMED: How easily does the new virus spread?
16. 这种新型病毒有多易于传播？
SARS-CoV2 spreads fairly easily from person to person, through coughs and touch. It is a “respiratory transmitted” virus.
17. TEDMED: Is there any other way that the virus spreads?
Recent reports indicate that it may also spread via fecal and urine contamination, but that requires confirmation.
18. TEDMED: How is this new virus different from the earlier known coronaviruses that spread SARS or MERS?
18. 新型冠状病毒和我们之前所了解的SARS和MERS有什么不同？
SARS-CoV2 is different in 4 critical ways:
First, many infected people have no symptoms for days, so they can unknowingly infect others, and we don’t know who to isolate. This is very worrisome because SARS-CoV2 is highly infectious.
Second, 80% of the time, COVID-19 is a mild disease that feels like a minor cold or cough, so we don’t isolate ourselves, and infect others.
Third, the symptoms are easily confused with the flu, so many people think they have the flu and don’t consider other possibilities.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the virus is very easy to spread from human to human because in the early stages it is concentrated in the upper throat. The throat is full of viral particles so when we cough or sneeze, billions of these particles can be expelled and transmitted to another person.
主要有4点。最为关键的一点是新冠病毒极易“人传人”，尤其在初期，咽喉处充满病毒，我们咳嗽或打喷嚏的时候会散播数百万的病毒粒子。
19. TEDMED: I thought the virus leads to pneumonia? How is the throat involved?
The disease often starts in the throat (which is why tests often take a swab from the throat) and then as it progresses it moves down to the lungs and becomes a lower respiratory infection.
20. TEDMED: I hear the word “asymptomatic” used a lot. What does it mean?
It simply means having no symptoms.
asymptomatic的意思就是无症状。
21. TEDMED: Are you saying that someone can be infected with the new virus and never show symptoms at all?
Unfortunately, yes. Many infected people do not show any symptoms for the first few days and then a mild cough or low fever shows up. This is the opposite of SARS, where you had clear symptoms for a few days but were only contagious when sick.
22. TEDMED: If you have no symptoms, can you still infect other people?
即使没有出现症状也会感染别人吗？
Unfortunately, yes. And that makes it much more difficult to slow the spread.
是的。这也使得控制病毒扩散尤为艰难。
疫苗的研发进展，难点在哪，为何耗时
23. TEDMED: How likely is it that scientists will develop a vaccine to prevent people from getting infected?
科学家研发出疫苗阻止人类感染的可能性有多大？
It is reasonably likely, but there are no guarantees that we will even have a vaccine. Failure is possible. For example, we’ve been searching for an HIV vaccine for 35 years and we still don’t have one. I’m optimistic that we will develop a vaccine for SARS-CoV2, but we will have to extensively test it for efficacy and safety – which takes a lot of people and time.
这是很有可能的，但也没有任何担保。我们用了35年的时间来寻找HIV疫苗，至今一无所获。我乐观的认为我们会研发出对抗SARS-CoV2的疫苗，但我们需要大量的测试来保证有效性及安全性 - 这意味着需要投入大量的人力和时间。
24. TEDMED: Assuming that a vaccine for coronavirus is possible and further assuming that it will be discovered fairly quickly, how long before we have a vaccine that we can start to inject into millions of people?
We will have vaccine “candidates” in a month or two. But because of the need for extensive testing to prove it protects and is safe, it will be at least a year before we have a vaccine we can inject into people that is approved by a major regulatory agency. In fact, 18 to 24 months is more likely by the time we scale it up to millions of doses, and that is optimistic.
25. TEDMED: Why will it take so long to develop a vaccine if this is an emergency?
25. 为什么研发疫苗要花这么长的时间？
It’s not necessarily vaccine discovery that takes so long, but vaccine testing. Once a “candidate” vaccine exists in the lab, a series of clinical trials are needed, first on animals and then on successively larger groups of people.
26. TEDMED: Have we made progress already?
The good news is that only weeks after the discovery and isolation of SARS-CoV2, which occurred in early January of 2020, vaccine development started immediately. Funding has been allocated by many governments and many companies and scientists around the world are working on it with great urgency.
27. TEDMED: Are scientists in these countries cooperating, or are they competing with each other?
27. 各国科学家目前是合作还是相互竞争？
A bit of both, and that is not a bad thing. But international cooperation has generally been good. That’s encouraging.
两者都有一些。总体来说国际合作关系是不错的。
28. TEDMED: Can’t we develop a vaccine faster?
Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts. The human body’s immune system is complex and unpredictable. Viral mutations may occur. Children are different from adults. Women may respond differently than men. We need to be sure that any vaccine is 100% safe for everyone who gets it. To accomplish that, we need to test drugs and vaccines at various doses on a wide range of healthy human volunteers under carefully measured conditions.
研发疫苗没有捷径。人类的免疫系统非常精妙复杂。病毒也会变异。人和人之间也存在个体差异。
新冠肺炎病毒的致死率及易感人群
29. TEDMED: How deadly is the new virus?
29. 新型病毒有多致命？
Most scientists believe that it kills 1% to 2% of all the people who become infected. The WHO currently reports a higher figure of more than 3%, but that estimate is likely to come down as they figure out how to count many unreported or mild cases. Mortality is clearly higher in older people and those with underlying conditions.
30. TEDMED: Is the average death rate the figure to focus on?
Not really. You can drown in an “average” of 3 inches of water. A better way to understand the risks are recognizing that it can be deadly for certain groups of people and much less so for other groups – with a wide range of outcomes.
31. TEDMED: So what are the numbers and checkpoints to focus on?
80% of the time it’s a mild disease, but in 20% of cases it becomes more severe, with the worst cases reporting high fever or shortness of breath. As a result some people require hospitalization, and some will need intensive care to survive through a few critical days when their lungs are extensively infected.
80%的情况下属于轻症，但20%相当致命，通常伴随高烧和呼吸短促。
32. TEDMED: Which groups of people are most at danger here?
First of all, older people like me: I'm 71. The older you are, the higher your risk. Also at greater risk are people with underlying diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive lung disease and pulmonary disease or cardiovascular disease or immune deficiencies.
老年人及患有糖尿病、慢阻肺、心血管疾病的人最危险。
33. TEDMED: How much danger do these high-risk groups face?
Their mortality rate can be as high as 10% or even 15%. And, your risk increases when you have more health conditions. The scientific data about all of this is regularly updated on the web.
34. TEDMED: So your risk increases significantly if you have other conditions, such as diabetes. Why?
Because your immune system reacts poorly to any infectious virus, but particularly to this one.
35. TEDMED: It seems that generally speaking, children and young people are only mildly affected, if at all. Is that true?
This is what it looks like, but as for so many other issues on COVID-19, this requires confirmation.
36. TEDMED: If true, why would SARS-CoV2 affect older people much more, but not younger people and children?
We actually don’t know. It’s going to be a while before we figure it out.
37. TEDMED: Anything else unusual?
You can infect other people even if you are totally asymptomatic and feeling fine. That’s unusual, though it can also happen with HIV infection.
新冠肺炎与流感的对比
38. TEDMED: We often hear COVID-19 compared to the seasonal flu. What’s the right way to frame this comparison? For example, are the seasonal flu and coronavirus equally dangerous?
The seasonal flu typically infects up to 30 million people a year in the U.S., and fewer than 1/10th of 1% of the infected group will die – but that is still a big number. Worldwide, in an average year, a total of 300,000 people die from seasonal flu. But, on an average basis, the new coronavirus is 10-20 times more deadly, and in contrast to influenza, we cannot protect ourselves through vaccination.
新冠病毒的致命性是流感的10-20倍，而且我们现在还不能通过接种疫苗来防护。
39. TEDMED: Does the new virus spread as easily as the flu?
The new virus appears to spread as easily the flu.
40. TEDMED: Continuing with the comparison of flu and COVID-19, what about causes? Is the flu also caused by a virus?
Yes. Flu is caused by the influenza virus. But the influenza virus and coronavirus are very different. A flu shot doesn’t help you with the new coronavirus, but it greatly reduces your risk of flu. The common cold, for which there is no vaccine or cure, is often caused by another type of tiny virus called a rhinovirus, and occasionally another coronavirus.
41. TEDMED: How does the infection progress when the new coronavirus gets a foothold in your body?
It usually starts with a cough. Then a low fever. Then the low fever turns into a high fever and you get shortness of breath.
症状表现一开始是出现咳嗽，然后是低烧，之后低烧会变成高烧，并且会出现呼吸急促。
42. TEDMED: At what point is good medical care the difference between life and death?
It is usually when your fever is very high and your lungs are compromised so that you are short of breath or you need help to breathe.
43. TEDMED: How is the new virus different from a disease such as the measles, mumps or chicken pox?
43. 新冠病毒与风疹、腮腺炎、水痘这些疾病有何不同？
SARS-CoV2 is currently far less infectious and dangerous but there is still a lot we don’t know about it. The other diseases are well understood.
44. TEDMED: If the new coronavirus is less dangerous than other viruses, why are many people so afraid of it?
Because new things that can kill us or cause us to be sick, make us very nervous. But accurate knowledge is the antidote to fear, so here in the U.S., I urge you to pay attention to CDC.gov. In other countries go your national health ministry or WHO websites.
45. TEDMED: How often should people check the CDC or WHO websites, or the website of their national health ministry?
We continuously update our knowledge as we learn more about the new virus, so these sites should be checked frequently.
46. TEDMED: Has mankind ever wiped out a virus completely?
46. 人类有完全消灭过某种病毒吗？
Yes. Smallpox, which used to kill millions of people. And, we’re very close with polio thanks to the Gates Foundation and many governments around the world such as the U.S. Let’s not forget what a terrible plague that was in the world.
新冠肺炎病毒在世界范围的传播
47. TEDMED: How does the new virus get to new places around the world?
By road, air and sea. Viruses travel by airplane nowadays. Some of the passengers may carry SARS-CoV2.
48. TEDMED: So, every international airport is a welcome mat for the new virus?
48. 所以说，国际机场是新冠病毒的温床？
The reality is that SARS-CoV2 is already firmly present in most countries, including in the U.S., and far from any major international airport.
49. TEDMED: Since the epidemic began in China, do visitors from that country represent the biggest danger of importing coronavirus into the U.S.?
Since the new virus emerged in China in 2019, 20 million people have come into the U.S. from countries all over the world. The U.S. stopped most direct flights from China 4 weeks ago, but it did not prevent entry of the virus. Now cases of COVID-19 in China are often imported from other countries as the epidemic in China appears to be declining for the time being.
50. TEDMED: In other words, major airports are all you need to guarantee that any country will have the virus everywhere in less than 3 months.
Yes. I think you say in America, “The horse has left the barn.” This is not a reason to completely stop all travel.
51. TEDMED: Why might a country like Japan close its schools?
Other countries such as Italy and France are doing the same. It’s because scientists don’t know how much of the spread is accelerated by children who are carriers. Japan is trying very hard to slow the spread. Children generally pass along viruses quickly since they don’t wash their hands or practice much personal hygiene. They play a big role in how the flu spreads which is why many countries have been closing schools in affected areas.
52. TEDMED: If I get infected, are there drugs I can take to make the virus less severe, or make it go away entirely?
No drugs have yet been proven effective as a treatment or what doctors call a “therapy.” A lot of different drugs are being tested in clinical trials, so hopefully that will change for the better soon.
53. TEDMED: How likely are we to come up with new therapeutic drugs, and how soon?
53. 我们有多大的可能性找到新的治疗药物，还需要多少时间？
I'm quite confident that probably in a matter of a couple of months, we are very likely to find “off-label” uses of current drugs that help treat an infected person. In other words, we'll have a new use for existing drugs that were originally used against other viral infections such as HIV. It will take time and a lot of real tests to be sure though. New therapeutic drugs are being tested in clinical trials, particularly in China, but also elsewhere. It looks promising.
药物已经在临床试验阶段，目前看来是有希望的。
54. TEDMED: What about antibiotics? Everybody always turns to them in a crisis.
This is a new virus, not a bacteria. Antibiotics work against bacteria but they do not work against viruses. They may be helpful in hospital usage with secondary infections that are bacterial, but antibiotics have no effect at all on the new virus itself.
55. TEDMED: What about all kinds of new cures and therapies and treatments I’ve heard about on the Internet?
There are going to be endless false claims. Only when you read about it on multiple reliable websites, you can feel confident there is real science. But most of what you hear will be total rubbish, so be very careful, and don’t spread unconfirmed rumors.
如何自我防护及阻断传播
56. TEDMED: How about masks? Are those blue surgical masks or an N95 facemask useful?
56. 外科口罩或者N95面罩有用吗？
Masks have very limited value except in certain specific circumstances. For example, depending on the type of N95 mask, just under 50% of inbound virus particles will be filtered out, but they may reduce spread from airborne droplets.
57. TEDMED: What are the advantages of masks when used properly and who should wear masks?
The best masks, carefully fitted and worn properly, slow down the spread FROM sick people coughing. Meaning, the mask is not to protect you from other people; it is to protect other people from you. It is a courtesy to others to wear a mask when you get what you think is a cold, and you start coughing. Masks have an additional benefit: they make it less likely that you will touch your mouth, so it becomes less likely that if you have the virus on your hands, you will transfer it into your body. Masks provide benefits for healthcare workers. If you work in a healthcare setting or in elder care, masks are mandatory.
58. TEDMED: Is there anything I can do to prevent from becoming infected in a global pandemic outbreak?
58. 如何才能做好自我防护？
Washing hands frequently, not touching your face, coughing and sneezing in your elbow or a paper handkerchief, not shaking hands or hugging all reduce your risk. If you are sick, stay home and consult with a doctor over the phone to see what to do next, and wear a mask when seeing other people.
59. TEDMED: What does “mitigation” mean? I hear scientists using that word a lot.
Mitigation means slowing the spread of the virus, and attempting to limit its effects on public health services, public life and the economy. Until there’s a vaccine, what we can do is slow it down. That is really important.
60. TEDMED: What other ways can we slow down the spread of the virus?
60. 还有什么方式可以延缓病毒传播？
Good hygiene and common courtesy can slow down the spread. In addition, “social distancing” measures — such as working from home, not taking a plane, closing schools, and banning major gatherings — will help slow the spread of SARS-CoV2.
好的卫生习惯。保持社交距离，以及隔离阻断措施。
61. TEDMED: Do different viruses spread more easily than others?
Yes. Measles is the worst. You can get measles by walking into an empty room that an infected person left 2 hours earlier! That’s why we have measles outbreaks when vaccination rates go down. It’s a very tough disease. The common cold spreads fairly easily. HIV is much harder to spread, and yet we’ve had 32 million deaths.
62. TEDMED: What will it take to stop this virus?
Nobody really knows for sure, but China has shown that it is possible to stop the spread significantly. A vaccine may be necessary to fully eliminate SARS-CoV2.
没人真正知道需要做到怎么样才能终止病毒， 但中国的例子已经展示了阻止传播的可能性。彻底消灭病毒或许要通过疫苗。
63. TEDMED: How long will it take for the new virus to spread through a population the size of the United States?
Left to spread with normal measures of good hygiene, SARS-CoV2 appears to double its infected population about every week. That means it will go from 50 people who are infected to 1 million people infected in about 14 weeks. That's the simple arithmetic of contagion. Of course, we can do things to slow it down.
64. TEDMED: How effective is good hygiene in slowing down the spread of coronavirus? Do the numbers of infected people decrease noticeably if people follow the guidelines?
The numbers change based on how careful people are, and even small changes are important to avoid stressing the healthcare system more than absolutely necessary.
65. TEDMED: Can a few thousand cases be hidden among our population? How would that be possible?
Every year, there are millions of flu cases. This year, some of these cases are actually COVID-19. In addition, many infected persons show no symptoms or very mild symptoms, so they are hiding in plain sight.
关于病毒检测及症状判别
66. TEDMED: Exactly what does it mean to test positive?
It means that a sensitive test has detected that the virus is present in fluids from that person.
67. TEDMED: Should everyone be tested as quickly as possible?
Testing for COVID-19 should be much more widely available because we still don’t know enough about who is infected, and how the virus spreads in the community. We need far more testing to learn important data.
68. TEDMED: Why has South Korea set up a system of “drive-through” testing?
South Korea has drive-through testing because they are trying very hard to slow the outbreak by finding every infected person as fast as they can.
69. TEDMED: What is the main symptom that people should be on the lookout for?
Coughing is the #1 symptom.
咳嗽是首要症状。
70. TEDMED: Is fever a good way to identify infected people?
A high fever may be cause for concern and is worth getting medical attention. But screening for fever alone, at an airport or checkpoint for example, lets a lot of infected people pass.
71. TEDMED: What percentage of the people who tested positive in Chinese hospitals arrived without a fever?
About 30% of Chinese coronavirus patients had no fever when they arrived at the hospital.
约30%的中国病例患者在去医院的时候没有发烧。
72. TEDMED: Is the new virus likely to come back to a country again once it peaks and the number of new cases drops off?
SARS-CoV2 is likely to never leave us without the same effort that eliminated smallpox and has almost eliminated polio.
如果没有消灭天花和几乎消灭脊髓灰质炎所付出的努力，SARS-CoV2很可能会一直伴随人类。
73. TEDMED: Meaning, the only way to beat the new coronavirus in the long term is global population-wide vaccinations?
73. 也就是说，战胜新冠病毒的唯一办法是全球范围的免疫吗？
We really don’t know. Population-based measures may work, but a vaccine may be necessary and is probably viable as long as the virus stays stable and does not mutate too much.
我们不知道。或许可以，但疫苗是必要的，可行的。只要病毒维持稳定没有过度变异。
74. TEDMED: Might the new virus “burn out” like other viruses have seemed to do?
We don’t know, but it is unlikely. SARS-CoV2 is already too well established around the world. This is no longer just a Chinese issue; there are probably hundreds of thousands of people infected but not yet tested — not only in China but in close to 100 other countries. SARS-CoV2, like the influenza virus that causes the seasonal flu, will likely be with us for a long, long time.
75. TEDMED: Will the new virus come back in waves or cycles, and if so, when?
75. 新冠病毒是否会卷土重来，如果是的话，会在什么时候？
Again, we don’t know, but it is a very important question. Probably, although at this early stage, nothing is sure. The 1918 pandemic flu circled the world in 3 waves. The new virus may have a second wave in China with the reopening of schools and factories. But until we see what actually happens, we don’t know how SARSCoV2 will behave.
在看到事实的发生之前，我们都不知道。
76. TEDMED: If we get a “lucky” break or two in the coming months, what does being “lucky” look like?
Warm weather may slow down the spread, although we don’t have any evidence yet that this is the case. Singapore, which has 120 cases already, and has one of the best COVID-19 control programs in the world, is just 70 miles from the equator — so at least in that case, a warm climate has not stopped the virus from spreading. It’s possible that SARS-CoV2 could steadily mutate into a less dangerous form so that fewer people die from it, as happened before with the swine flu in 2009. But I wouldn't count on it. Quickly finding an effective drug therapy or cocktail of drugs would be excellent news. That’s about it for luck.
群体免疫靠谱吗？
77. TEDMED: Do people who are at high risk for COVID-19 have the same chance of dying everywhere?
Unfortunately, your risk of death depends a lot on where you are in the world. If you need and get cared for in a well-equipped modern hospital, which we hope is accessible to lots of people, the death rate will be far lower because of intensive care respirators and fewer secondary infections.
78. TEDMED: How do I know if I’m going to be in the mild group or the one that needs hospitalization?
You don’t know for sure, but being over 70 or having a chronic condition increases your risk of severe illness, and even death. We can only speak in terms of probabilities, because we don’t yet know enough about COVID-19.
79. TEDMED: Should I be worried that I’m going to get COVID-19? How worried are you, Peter?
79. 我应该担心自己被感染吗？Peter博士你会担心吗？
If you’re not at high risk, I wouldn’t worry too much, but I would do everything I can to avoid becoming infected as you don’t know individual outcomes. Everyone is eventually going to be at risk for acquiring this infection in the next few years, just as no one avoids the common cold or the flu over time. So all of us should be ready to stay home at the first signs.
80. TEDMED: What do you mean everyone is going to be at risk for getting the virus?
80. 为什么说每个人都面临感染的风险？
I mean that all humans spend time with other humans, so we are all connected -- and biology is relentless. However, I would take sensible precautions and, at the same time, not worry obsessively. That isn’t helpful.
81. TEDMED: If everyone is going to get the new virus, why try to avoid getting it? If I get the virus immediately, then I can be done with it and move on.
We want to slow down the infection, which means slow down the number of new cases and total cases so our hospitals can handle the most affected patients without getting overwhelmed or turning away patients with other types of illnesses that require immediate attention.
82. TEDMED: It appears that after people recover from the new virus, they may still be contagious. Is that true?
82. 感染新冠肺炎病毒痊愈之后仍有可能再次感染。是真的吗？
We don’t know, although it appears that may be the case for a while after recovery. We are not totally sure. More research is needed.
83. TEDMED: Once you get the virus, are you then permanently immune to getting it again, like with measles or mumps?
83. 一旦感染了病毒，是否会对再次感染有了永久免疫，就像麻疹或腮腺炎？
Here again, we don’t know the answer to that important question yet.
目前我们对于这个问题还没有办法回答。
84. TEDMED: Obviously, permanent immunity against COVID-19 would be important for individuals who came through one bout of the disease. Is such immunity also important for society as a whole? Why?
This question is extremely important for the vaccine development, because vaccines rely on the ability of our body to mount a protective immune response and on a stable virus. And obviously the number of people susceptible to becoming infected would gradually decrease over time.
85. TEDMED: Is the new virus seasonal, like the flu?
85. 新冠病毒是否具季节性，就像流感？
We haven’t gone long enough to see if there is a seasonal mutation to SARS-CoV2, or how the trillions of new virus particles change as they pass through millions of people.
新冠病毒的变异
86. TEDMED: So this virus can mutate by itself into new forms with new symptoms?
We don’t know at all. If it does, new vaccines may be necessary to prevent the mutated version of SARS-CoV2 from spreading.
87. TEDMED: If the virus naturally mutates, does that mean it could become more deadly, and on the other hand, it could also become less deadly?
Yes, either one is possible. It’s a new virus, so we have no idea what the mutations will do.
人类社会是否会长期受新冠病毒影响
88. TEDMED: If coronavirus becomes a threat that doesn’t go away, what does that mean for myself and my family?
88. 如果新冠病毒成为了一种威胁，而且不会消失，对我和我的家人将意味着什么？
It means we will all learn to deal with it, and make sure we are all adopting safe behaviors. We should be particularly mindful of the needs of older family members.
意味着我们都要学会如何应对，并且确保我们都采取了安全的措施。我们应该特别注意年长的家人。
89. TEDMED: I heard the virus can live for 9 days on a countertop. Is that true?
It’s probable that SARS-CoV2 can stay viable on some surfaces for quite a while, but we don’t know for how long.
90. TEDMED: The greatest pandemic of modern times was the 1918 flu pandemic right at the end of World War I. In that pandemic, influenza simply mutated – it was not a new virus. How does SARS-CoV2 compare to that mutation?
SARS-CoV2 is just as contagious as the 1918 influenza pandemic and appears to be nearly as lethal, but time will tell. Remember, back in 1918 there was no medical system anything like what we have in the developed world, and there were no antibiotics to treat bacterial pneumonia, which was a major cause of death.
91. TEDMED: Is there any chance that this is one giant false alarm and that we’re going to look back this summer and say “wow, we all panicked over nothing!”?
91. 有没有可能说，到了今年夏天我们回过头来看这只是一场虚惊？
No. COVID-19 is already in well over 100 countries and it’s highly contagious. Virtually every day there are more and more cases, in more countries. This is not a drill. It is the real thing.
不。世界各地每天都有新的病例，这是确实发生的事情。
92. TEDMED: It’s hard to believe that suddenly a truly new virus that mankind has never seen can infect millions of people. When is the last time that happened?
SARS and MERS were new – but they did not reach scale. HIV was new to the world and has infected 70 million people – of whom 32 million have died from the HIV Pandemic.
93. TEDMED: HIV affects poor countries much more than wealthier ones. Will that likely be true for the new virus?
Yes, absolutely. Wealthy countries such as the U.S. are going to have much lower death rates because of better hydration, supplemental breathing equipment, proper handling of infections, and the like. This is potentially a giant problem for low-resource countries that have poor health systems. Many countries in Africa will face enormous risks. When it reaches the most resource-challenged countries of the world, it's very likely to be catastrophic.
如何看待这次疫情
94. TEDMED: It sounds like the bottom line is that you are not terribly optimistic.
In general, I'm definitely an optimist but at the same time, there is a lot to be very uncomfortable and nervous about. I understand people have fears, especially if they are in one or more of the high-risk groups. But there is also good news, because we are already seeing progress in global cooperation, especially in science and medicine. We are seeing more transparency among governments. The number of cases in China is currently rapidly declining, but that could change. And, we are seeing very rapid development of therapeutics, for example.
我持乐观的态度但同时也存在非常大的不安与担忧。我能理解易感人群的恐惧。科技及医学在全球范围的合作是个好兆头。我们看到政府间更多的透明度。中国的病例数量在迅速下降，虽然这也可能会有变化。另外，我们也看到在治疗措施上的急速进步。
95. TEDMED: You also said there is a lot to be concerned about. What are your biggest worries for the new virus?
Poorly managed, the spread of coronavirus can quickly overload any country’s healthcare system and block people who really need all kinds of medical access. Another worry is that overreaction and fear can cripple a country’s economy, which causes another kind of suffering. So, this is a very tough trade-off.
糟糕的应对措施是我目前最大的担忧，这会使一个国家的医疗系统迅速超载。另外一个就是过激反应和恐慌造成的经济危机。
96. TEDMED: And, what should we be psychologically prepared for?
We should be psychologically prepared to hear about lots of “new” cases being reported in every city in the U.S. that begins testing, as well as an increasing number of deaths, particularly among the elderly. In reality they are often not “new” cases; they are existing cases that have become visible for the first time.
97. TEDMED: What things are you encouraged about?
97. 让你感到欣慰的是什么？
1. Modern biology is moving at breakneck speed. 2. In addition to the public health community worldwide, including the World Health Organization, Government leaders at the highest levels are focusing on the threat. 3. We isolated the virus in days and sequenced it quickly. 4. I am confident we will soon have a treatment. 5. We are hopefully going to have a vaccine. 6. This is truly the age of modern communication. That can help us, as long as we debunk fake and dangerous news.
98. TEDMED: How ready is the U.S. for this?
98. 美国是否有做好准备？
The U.S. has had ample time for a head start to prepare for this pandemic, and so have other high-income countries. We all benefitted from China’s unprecedented mass quarantines that slowed down the spread. The U.S. will handle the serious cases correctly from the start by being more prepared.
99. TEDMED: Who are you most worried about?
It’s the low-resource countries that I am very worried about. Each death is a tragedy. When we say that on average, 1% to 2% of infected people will die from coronavirus, that is a lot. After all, 1% of a million is 10,000 people, and it is the elderly I am very worried about. But 98%-99% of people won't die from this. The seasonal flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year and you don’t panic – even if we actually should take flu far more seriously and make sure we are all vaccinated against it every year. Just as we have learned to live with seasonal flu, I think we will need to learn how to go about our lives in a normal fashion, despite the presence of COVID-19, until an effective vaccine becomes available.
100. TEDMED: Are there more pandemics in our future?
100. 未来是否还会有其他的大流行病？
Definitely yes. This is part of our human condition and of living on a “virus planet.” It is a never-ending battle. We need to improve our preparedness. That means committing ourselves to seriously invest in pandemic preparedness and building a global fire brigade, long before the house catches on fire next time.
肯定的。这就是我们全人类的共同处境。这是一场永无休止的战役。我们需要做的是未雨绸缪。
原文发表在伦敦大学卫生与热带药物研究院网站。
URL:https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/expert-opinion/100-questions-peter-piot-lshtm-director?linkId=85296309
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