外國網友討論如果中國，巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡同時進攻印度，會怎樣

Balaji Viswanathan, Indian by Birth. Indian by Thought.TL;DR - All the parties will lose. As someone who likes China and madly in love with India, I don't see a good outcome. Still I will play as I was asked.

Balaji Viswanathan，印度出生，印度思維（譯註：這是這個問題下最高讚的回答，7.6K贊同）對於所有人來說都沒好果子吃。作為一個喜歡中國的同時又極度熱愛印度的人，我看不到任何前途。但我仍將回答這個問題。

I like the top voted answer, but it is inaccurate in stating US will kick China's ass. In reality, US or any other major power will never mess with China in a direct war. It is not just China's nukes, but it is China's manufacturing keys that everyone will fear. Let us take a direct involvement out of question in this hypothetical battle.

我喜歡高讚的答案，但說美國會痛扁中國則是不準確的。實際上，美國或者任何大國都絕對不會和中國發生直接衝突，不僅僅是因為中國有核武器，還因為沒人能夠承受與世界工廠衝突的下場。所以讓我們撇開其他因素，來單純的考量這場戰爭。

The result will be a stalemate. It is purely hypothetical analysis to show interconnected everything is and nothing against any country. Here is why:

戰爭將會陷入僵持。這是出於純粹的假設分析得出的結果，證明在一個互聯互通的世界上沒有東西能打敗一個國家。原因如下：

First, let us take the low hanging fruit: Sri Lanka. Lankans received massive help from India to prevail over LTTE and end the civil war. The help included military (logistics, patrolling, arms), diplomatic (banning LTTE in Western nations) and political (prevailing over Tamilnadu's political parties). Indian central government is the only that can prevail over certain jigoist Tamil groups. Thus, if SL distracts Indian central government in any way, Tamil nationalist groups could send SL into a massive chaos and civil war. Thus, no way SL would mess with India.

首先，讓我們來看看最容易解決的斯里蘭卡。斯里蘭卡在戰勝猛虎組織和結束內戰的過程中得到了印度的巨大幫助。這些幫助涉及軍事（後勤、巡邏、武器）、外交（在西方國家禁止猛虎組織）及政治（主導泰米爾納德邦政府）。印度中央政府是唯一一個可以勝過那些侵略組織的政府。因此，如果斯里蘭卡試圖削弱印度中央政府，那些泰米爾的種族主義團體可能會讓斯里蘭卡陷入內戰和混亂。所以斯里蘭卡不會去想著給印度添亂。

Oil Throttle: India has a very strategic position in the global oil flow. East Asia's oil pass through India. At the start of any major war, India could throttle China's oil supplies and merchandise exports. India could also use its ally Iran at the head of Hormuz and South East Asian allies around Malacca to further the blockade.

石油閥門：印度在世界石油流通中有非常重要的地位。東亞的石油需要經過印度。在戰爭爆發前，印度可以扼住中國的石油供應和商品出口。印度也可以通過它在霍爾木茲海峽的盟友-伊朗和東南亞馬六甲海峽附近的盟友來進一步封鎖。

Involvement of other powers: China's rise is not in any major power's interest. From US, UK, Germany to Russia, Japan and Korea are all scared of China's rise. For other Asian nations from Vietnam to Malaysia, a Chinese hegemony is a scary economic prospect. Although no one will directly involve, everyone will covertly provide aid to India.

其他力量的介入：中國的崛起不符合任何大國的利益。不論美國、英國、德國還是俄羅斯、日本、韓國，都恐懼於中國的崛起。對別的亞洲國家如越南和馬來西亞來說，中國的霸權是一個可怕的未來。雖然沒有人會直接參與戰爭，但每個人都會暗中援助印度。

Internal destabilization: Blablablabla

內部動盪：

Nuclear factor: While Pakistan has less to worry about India's nukes (nothing much to lose), China has everything to lose in a nuclear war with India. A cornered nation with nuclear power is the worst enemy you could have.Thus, a Pakistan-China axis will never really work against India. The resulting mutual destruction is what preventing such an alliance from already happening.

核因素：雖然巴基斯坦不太擔心印度的核武器（光腳的不怕穿鞋的），但中國會在與印度的核戰爭中失去一切。一個擁有核武器的國家是你能找到的最壞的對手。因此，中-巴軸心永遠不會對印度起作用。互相摧毀的後果會讓這樣的聯盟在形成前就結束。

Chaitanya Belwal, Experienced with Technology and Defense mattersWhile this may me a hypothetical scenario, it figures quite prominently in the Indian military's war scenario. Past news suggest that the Indian military has always accounted for a 2-front war with China and Pakistan. Let’s keep Sri Lanka out of this since its military is not large enough to pose a serious threat (No offence to the Sri Lankans, but it took them 30 years to get rid of the LTTE, an objective that was almost achieved in 3 years by 4 divisions of the Indian army. Contrary to popular perceptions (as presented here) the reality of a Sino-Pak-Indo conflict are quite different.

Chaitanya Belwal, 在科技和國防方面經驗豐富（譯註：第二最高讚的回答，1.7K贊同）雖然這只是一個虛擬情景，但它在印軍的作戰預想中非常重要。過去的消息表明，印度一直在研究與中巴進行雙線戰爭的可能。讓我們先忽略斯里蘭卡，因為它的軍事力量不足以構成嚴重的威脅（無意冒犯斯里蘭卡人，但他們花了30年才搞定猛虎組織，印軍只用4個師在三年內就解決了這個問題）。與流行的看法相反（比如現在討論的這個），現實中的中-巴-印衝突是完全不同的。

First I differ with one poster who compares the Chinese Military (CM) as a world-class boxer, India as street cop and Pakistan as a brother to the street cop. If there is one 1000 lb Gorilla (or the boxer) in the room of world's militaries it is the US military. The rest, including China, are nothing but street cops with varying degree of weapons and strength. To reason why, one only has to see that each US Navy CVN (Nuclear carrier) is the 20th largest air force in the world, having some of the most sophisticated aircraft , and there are 11 of them. And we are not even talking about the USAF.

首先，我不同意那位答主說的“中國軍隊是一個世界級拳擊手，印軍只是個街頭警察，巴基斯坦就是街警的小弟”。如果說這裡有誰是一隻1000磅的大猩猩（或者拳擊手），那非美軍莫屬。剩下的軍隊，包括中國，都是街上的小警察，只不過大家的武器水平和力量水平不同。要說原因的話，只用看看美國的每一艘核動力航母都能算做是世界上第二十大的空軍，有著最先進的戰機，更不要說他們有11艘這樣的航母了。我們甚至還沒聊到美國空軍。

Now let’s look at China, Pakistan and India. Between China and India there is this huge great wall, called the Himalayas, which makes PLA's 4000+ tanks pretty much useless. Infact in altitudes of 14,000+ feet which is where most of the war will be fought, its 100+ attack helicopters won’t be of much use either. The PLA will of course have a 1:3 advantage in artillery and with a nice logistics line running right up to the border they can get the big guns in numbers and fast. So the Himalayan war will be restricted to infantry and artillery where PLA has a 1:3 advantage. However, this advantage is dented because for being an overwhelming conventional force, a superiority of 1:6 is desired, more so in mountain warfare. Discounting support from the Air force (which we will dig into later) PLA will hard pressed for sustaining offensive operations in India. In 1962, when Indian military was the weakest, The PLA could not extend beyond Tawang in eastern India as it stretched their logistics line too thin. Even though PLA is better now, the Indian army has improved much more than 1962, and sustaining deep operations in the Indian theatre is not a tactical proposition for the PLA anymore.

現在我們來看看中國、巴基斯坦和印度。在

In the plain desert of western India Pakistan's 1900+ tanks will be met by India's 3000+ tanks and its .5 million troop army by units of the Indian army backed by the para military BSF (with estimated 300K troops meant for the Pakistan border only). Assuming half of India's 1.2 million army is fighting China that still gives India a numerical advantage. On top of that the Indian army's Orbat is structured around 3 strike corps, (1,2 and 21 Corps) units of Independent army with heavy armor whose only goal is strike deep inside Pakistan. Infact the sole reason for existence of 1 Corps is to divide Pakistan in two, by deep push across the plains of Sindh. Rest of the so called Holding corps possess enough firepower to offensive operations. With a joint attack by Pakistan and China these powerful formations will be in defensive mode and it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will be able to undertake any offensive operations in Indian territory.

在印度西邊的沙漠平原裡，巴基斯坦的1900多輛坦克將由印度的3000多輛坦克和500萬準軍事部隊BSF（估計有30萬是專為印巴邊境準備的）來對付。假設印度的120萬軍隊有一半在與中國戰鬥，剩下的仍將對巴基斯坦形成數量優勢。最重要的是，印度軍隊的戰鬥序列由3個打擊部隊組成（1、2和21軍團），擁有重型裝甲，其唯一目標就是深入巴基斯坦境內。事實上，1軍團存在的目的就是將巴基斯坦撕裂為兩部分，深入推進信德平原。其他的守衛部隊也有足夠的火力進攻。在巴基斯坦和中國的聯合攻擊下，這些強大的編隊將處於防禦模式，巴基斯坦不太可能能夠在印度領土上展開任何進攻行動。

Regarding the Navy, though China may have a decent blue water capability it does not have the numbers or the experience to sustain operations in the backyard of the Indian Navy, the 2nd largest Navy in Asia. Indian Navy's 2 Carrier Battle Groups will pose a serious offensive threat to the surface fleet of both the Pakistan and Chinese navies. A naval blockade of India is unthinkable since this will bring the entire surface fleet of the PLAN and PN within strike range of shore based bombers and strike aircraft of the Indian Navy and air force. Unlike the US Navy or even the Royal Navy, PLAN lacks the air support firepower needed to protect its fleet from offensive ground based air operations.

說到海軍，雖說中國有像樣的藍水海軍，但它在亞洲第二大海軍——印度海軍的後院裡並沒有足夠的數量或是經驗來維持作戰。印度海軍的2個航母戰鬥群將對巴基斯坦海軍和中國的海軍的水面艦隊構成嚴重的威脅。中巴不可能封鎖印度海域，因為這將使它們的艦隊暴露在岸基轟炸機和印度空軍、海軍的攻擊範圍內。與美國海軍甚至皇家海軍不同，中國海軍缺乏保護艦隊免受攻擊的空中支援火力。

That brings us to the role of AF's where PLAAF has a distinct advantage at least on paper. With 3000+ combat aircraft supported by mid-air refuellers the PLAAF is a force to content with. However apart from 250+ SU30MKK’s, 200+ Su-27s and 200+ JF-17’s rest of these aircraft are vintage Chinese variants of MiG 19 and MiG 21s. In the context of Sino-Indian conflict China has primarily 6 airbases to launch strike aircraft from. However, all of these have altitudes in excess of 4000 ft, which means the strike aircraft taking off will be carrying lesser payload. A PLAAF Su-30MKK for example will take off with 6 AA missiles rather than 8. All IAF airbases bordering China primarily those in Bareilly, Tezpur, Hindon and Bagdodra all at near sea level allowing Indian Su30MKI to takeoff at full payload. IAF has reserved most of the 150+ modern Su30MKI ( a more lethal aircraft than Su30MKK due to superior Radar and electronics) for the Sino border, while 300+ modernized MiG 21 , MiG 27’s,MiG 29 and Jaguar’s can take care of the PAF. In addition the IAF has 50+ Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft which have superb ground combat and electronic capabilities and these may be used for the Sino border too. On top of this the IAF has a force multiplier than neither PAF or PLAAF have, i.e. AWACS. Apart from Israel, IAF is the only asian airforce with Phalcon AWACS mounted in IL-76 platforms. This gives IAF the capability to look 1500 kms deep inside Chinese and Pakistan territories while flying in safe Indian air space. IAF will be aware of every PLAAF and PAF as soon as it takes off, given sufficient time for action. This is a serious issue for both PAF and PLAAF, and taking down the Phalcon’s should figure top in their air battle strategy.

同時我們也要看到，中國空軍至少在紙面上有明顯的優勢，中國空軍有3000多架戰鬥機並由空中加油機支援。然而，除了250多架Su-30MKK、200多架Su-27、200多架JF-17之外，其餘的飛機都是老式的中國版Mig-19和Mig-21。在中印衝突的背景下，中國會有6個空軍基地起降戰鬥機。然而，這些基地的海拔都超過4000英尺，這意味著飛機只能攜帶較小的載荷起飛。例如中國空軍的Su-30MKK只能攜帶6枚空空導彈，而不是8枚。與中國接壤的印度空軍基地主要有Bareilly、Tezpur、Hindon和Bagdodra，這些基地都位於海平面附近，能讓印度空軍的Su-30MKI全負荷起飛。印度空軍在中國邊境部署了150多架現代化的Su-30MKI（一種比Su-30MKK更致命的飛機，具有更好的雷達和電子設備），而巴基斯坦空軍則由300多架現代化的Mig-21、Mig-27、Mig-29和美洲虎攻擊機對付。另外，印度空軍有50多架幻影-2000戰鬥機，具極好的地面作戰能力和電子能力，並可能在中印邊境部署。除此之外，印度空軍擁有中國空軍和巴基斯坦空軍所沒有的力量倍增器，即AWACS（機載報警與控制系統）。除以色列外，印度空軍是唯一擁有安裝在伊爾-76平臺上的“費爾康”機載預警系統的亞洲空軍，這使得印度空軍能呆在安全的印度空域，就獲得中國和巴基斯坦境內1500千米的情報。如果有充足的準備時間，印度空軍甚至能在中國空軍和巴基斯坦空軍的任何一架戰機起飛時就發現它們。這對中國空軍和巴基斯坦空軍來說都是個嚴重的問題，摧毀“費爾康”系統會是它們的首要目標。

All three countries have ballistic missiles and each one can hit every corner of each other with nuclear weapons. So this will probably be the last resort. However, here too the Indian’s posses a potential lethal edge that not many are aware off. The Indian research arm for ballistic missiles has consistently demonstrated the accuracy of its anti-ballistic missile system, where in 3 trials it has demonstrated critical success. What is even more remarkable that inbound missiles were also hit in exo-atmosphere, a capability known only with the US. Of course what helps the Indian is the Green Pine radar that US and Israel shipped to India in a low key event. If the anti ballistic missile system does work, rendering Chinese and Pakistani ballistic missiles useless it gives India an edge that the attacking neighboring can’t match. Note PLA only has a demonstrated capability to blow satellites which was widely publicized. However, satellites have a known trajectory and it is relatively very simple to blow them up without using sophisticated radars.

中印巴三國都有彈道導彈，每個國家都可以用核武器攻擊對方，所以這是最後的手段。然而在這個領域，印度也擁有不為人知的潛在致命優勢。（譯者：大哥你就這樣洩露了印度的最高機密嗎……）印度的彈道導彈研究組一直在驗證他們的反導系統的準確性，3次實驗都成功了。更重要的是，導彈在外層大氣中也能被攔截，據說只有美國有這種能力。當然，幫我們做到這一點的是美國和以色列在某次事件中低調運往印度的綠松石雷達。如果反導系統能發揮作用，將使中巴的彈道導彈毫無用處，會讓印度在面對囂張的鄰居時擁有無可比擬的優勢。注：PLA只有公開的衛星打擊能力，然而衛星具有已知軌跡，並且在不使用複雜雷達的情況下能相對輕鬆的把它們打下來。

To conclude India vs China-Pakistan war will end in stalemate at best, and won’t give any tactical or strategic advantage to any nation. So much so that it’s motivation itself will be in doubt.

總結：中印巴之戰最終會陷入僵局，並且不會給任何一個國家帶來戰術或戰略優勢。所以發生戰爭的動機本來就不具可靠性。

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