❑ 導 讀
“從企業的角度來看，‘區塊鏈旅遊’階段已經過去，企業已經超越了(簡單地)理解底層技術細節的需要。”
全文共計2710字，預計閱讀時間5分鐘
來源 | Dataversity
作者| Paramita (Guha) Ghosh
譯者| 黃玉葉
2020年可能是區塊鏈技術在整個行業利基市場獲得更高採用率和使用率的一年。誠如2019年那樣，中國可能會帶頭在區塊鏈研究和應用方面進行大量投資。最大的加密貨幣交易所在中國，今年可能會看到2019年的多雲區塊鏈出現一些戲劇性的部署轉變。現實是，難以捉摸的技術要在實際應用中得到證明，才能在行業用戶中獲得更高的採用率。
在2019年初，LimeChain的區塊鏈架構師和聯合創始人GeorgeSpasov表示：“2019年，企業延續了2018年的區塊鏈嘗試。”根據德勤（Deloitte）2019年全球區塊鏈調查，大約一半的調查受訪者表示，該年將“平均花費500萬美元或更多”用於區塊鏈項目。然而，受訪者也指出，部署問題、安全威脅和監管方面的麻煩將成為技術採用的嚴重障礙。
所有這些趨勢在2020年給我們帶來了什麼？《區塊鏈未來》（https：//www.dataversity.net/the-future-of-blockchain/）一文指出，這項技術的未來在於提供一種“有清晰記錄支持的防篡改、資產跟蹤系統”，這大致暗示了區塊鏈在革新三個核心產業部門——銀行、金融服務和保險部門等方面展示出的巨大潛力。
2020年區塊鏈既定趨勢和預期改進
- 一些雲服務標杆服務商已開始提供區塊鏈即服務。福布斯建議，今年用戶希望在不同的雲網絡上運行他們的區塊鏈業務。
- 雲部署和區塊鏈的採用是緊密相連的，因為更高的區塊鏈採用將導致更多的雲採用，反之亦然。雲計算和區塊鏈供應商在戰略合作中互惠互利。
- 雲計算的未來：區塊鏈將有它的一天，它提供了關於混合雲環境中的區塊鏈的發人深省的討論。
- 藉助來自Azure，AWS和Oracle的許多雄心勃勃的解決方案，區塊鏈在獲得主流地位之前仍然需要應對技術成熟度和公眾懷疑論。不幸的是，儘管進行了雄心勃勃的投資，但很少有最終企業能夠從“去中心化的賬本”中獲得回報。
- 由於區塊鏈而導致的業務流程中最明顯的變化可能會在2020年的保險行業中出現。保險中的區塊鏈技術描述了該技術如何影響核心保險實踐，如定價和承保、索賠、託收和後臺工作。
- 據普華永道（PWC）的一份報告，到2020年，77%的金融機構可能會將區塊鏈與它們的“生產系統或流程”相結合。
- 2019年隨著全球社交媒體人口達到27.7億，區塊鏈在2020年的出現將為侵犯隱私、數據控制和內容相關的問題提供解決方案。
- 目前區塊鏈和人工智能、物聯網等其他新興IT技術共存，2020年，區塊鏈專家如何處理互操作性問題值得期待。
區塊鏈的奧卡姆（OCCAM）問題
一年前，區塊鏈奧卡姆（OCCAM）問題指出，經過長達9年的鉅額投資、研究努力和頭腦風暴，區塊鏈技術專家、金融行業和監管機構還沒有為他們最初宣稱的金融業務提出“改變遊戲規則”的解決方案。
上面的文章總結了區塊鏈研發的頂級資金，其中包括2017年區塊鏈初創公司獲得的10億美元風投，IBM在區塊鏈物聯網解決方案上的投資超過2億美元，以及金融業每年約17億美元的支出。麥肯錫最近對金融服務的研究讓市場觀察人士相信，儘管這些投資價值數十億美元，但“幾乎沒有任何技術、商業和戰略意義上的用例，也無法大規模交付。”
那麼，目前全球對區塊鏈作為一項革命性技術的看法是什麼呢？各大企業已縮減了投資和研究力度，並正以更有針對性的重點進行區塊鏈的研發。數十個用例已經縮小到一個或兩個——更多地關注於遵從性、數據標準和網絡採用。
該理論認為區塊鏈將徹底改變從“銀行和保險到運輸和醫療保健”等整個行業壁壘的主要業務流程，但在應用程序方面卻落後。概念證明尚不可見，以至於行業領導者和區塊鏈服務商都淡化了他們的期望，現在他們已經準備好接受更加務實的市場觀點。服務商必須更誠實地面對這項神奇技術的挑戰和侷限性，並適當地重新調整他們的商業策略。
2020區塊鏈希望
Gartner將區塊鏈列為2020年十大戰略技術之一。根據Ledgerinsights的說法，Gartner預測在未來三年中，“公共區塊鏈”將與“獲准區塊鏈”整合。
2020年，區塊鏈必須超越其POC烙印，並展現出實際的市場適用性。所以這是2020年值得關注的更多區塊鏈趨勢：
- 區塊鏈供應商將積極尋求具有更好服務和工具的行業。
- 公司將繼續探索對所有類型的實物和數字資產進行“加密幣化”。
- 數字資產模型語言（DAML）可能會推翻現有框架。
- 由於可擴展性和互操作性是困擾區塊鏈部署的棘手問題，因此到2020年，企業將需要更多的可擴展性和“網絡之間的互連接性”。
2020年預測：分佈式分類帳技術將超越概念驗證，從而對當前區塊鏈商業化的障礙有了更深入的瞭解。另一個區塊鏈應用程序的成功之處在於如何使用區塊鏈保護敏感數據存儲。Storj.io和Sia.tech技術是兩種區塊鏈存儲產品，目前有望在市場上大出風頭。
2019年由技術壁壘引發的區塊鏈主趨勢
- 去年雲服務商提供區塊鏈即服務的趨勢可能會在今年隨著更多服務和工具的發展而上升。
- 可定製區塊鏈“聯合區塊鏈”將在網絡興起。
- 隨著市場應用仍然在考驗和試驗中掙扎，區塊鏈專家千金難求。
- 企業必須用更多面向區塊鏈的專業知識對員工進行創新和技能培訓，這樣他們才能從區塊鏈部署中獲得最大的投資回報率。
2020年的區塊鏈：總結
在2018年，大多數區塊鏈供應商不確定市場反饋，因為大多數行業領導者只是在沒有積極追求區塊鏈應用程序的情況下就修補了區塊鏈的想法。在2019年，隨著雲服務提供商開始提供區塊鏈即服務，區塊鏈技術得到了翻新。如果適當利用這一趨勢，可以同時提高雲和區塊鏈的採用率。
關於2020年區塊鏈，我們引用德勤美國區塊鏈實驗室負責人克里斯·布羅德森（ChrisBrodersen）的話，有5個值得關注的趨勢：
“從企業的角度來看，‘區塊鏈旅遊’階段已經過去，企業已經超越了(簡單地)理解底層技術細節的需要。”
區塊鏈應用案例早已經是市場上有目共睹的說服場景。
原文如下
Blockchain Trends in 2020
2020 is likely the year when blockchain technologies will witness higher adoption rates and usage across industry niches. As announced in 2019, China may lead the way to substantial investment in blockchain research and applications. The largest cryptocurrency exchanges are in China, and this year may see some dramatic deployment shifts from the multi-cloud blockchains of 2019. The reality is that elusive technology has a lot to prove in actual applications before it achieves higher adoption rate among industry users.
At the beginning of 2019, George Spasov, blockchain architect and LimeChain co-founder, commented, “2019 has continued what 2018 started — enterprises experimenting.” According to the Deloitte 2019 Global Blockchain Survey, about half of the survey respondents had stated that “an average of $5 million or more” would be spent on blockchain projects in that year. However, the survey respondents also noted that deployment issues, security threats, and regulatory hassles would be serious barriers to technology adoption.
Where have all those trends brought us in 2020? The Future of Blockchain claims that the future of the technology lies in providing a “tamper-proof, asset-tracking system backed by clear records,” which broadly hints at blockchain’s immense potentials for revolutionizing three core industry sectors: banking, financial services, and insurance sectors.
Established Blockchain Trends and Expected Enhancements in 2020
●Some of the most successful cloud service providers have offered started offering blockchain-as-a-service. This year users expect to run their blockchain operations across different cloud networks, Forbes suggests.
●Cloud deployments and blockchain adoption are closely interlinked, in the sense that higher blockchain adoption will lead to more cloud adoption and vice versa. The cloud and blockchain vendors have mutual gains in strategic partnerships.
●The Future of Cloud Computing: Blockchain Will Have Its Day offers a thought-provoking discussion of blockchain in a hybrid cloud environment.
●With many ambitious solutions from Azure, AWS, and Oracle, blockchain still has technology maturity and public skepticism to deal with before it can achieve mainstream status. Unfortunately, in spite of ambitious investments, very few finial businesses have yet to reap the rewards of a “decentralized ledger.”
●The most visible change in business processes due to blockchain may be observable in the insurance sector in 2020. Blockchain Technology in Insurance describes how this technology can impact core insurance practices such as pricing and underwriting, claims, collections, and back-office work.
●According to a Price Water Cooper (PWC) report, 77 percent of financial institutions are likely to integrate blockchain with their “in-production system or process by 2020.”
●With the global social-media population at 2.77 billion in 2019, the emergence of blockchain in social media in 2020 will provide solutions for problems related to privacy violations, data control, and content.
●With blockchain exposed to other emerging IT technologies such as AI and IoT, it will be interesting to see how the blockchain experts tackle interoperability issues in 2020.
Blockchain’s Occam Problem
A year ago, Blockchain’s Occam Problem commented that after nine long years of huge investments, research efforts, and brainstorming, the blockchain technologists, finance industry, and the regulators are yet to present that “game-changing” solution for the financial businesses that they initially claimed.
The above article provides a summary of the top funds provided for blockchain R &D, which includes VC funding of $1 billion for blockchain startups in 2017, IBM’s investment of over $200 million in a blockchain-powered IoT solution, and the financial industry’s annual expenditure of about 1.7 billion. McKinsey’s recent study of financial services leads the market watcher to believe that in spite of these billion-dollar investments, “hardly any use cases made technological, commercial, and strategic sense or could be delivered at scale.”
So what is the current global perception of blockchain as a revolutionary technology? Major businesses have scaled down their investments and research efforts and are approaching blockchain R & D with a more targeted focus. Tens of use cases have been narrowed down to one or two — with more focus on compliance, data standards, and network adoption.
The theory that suggested blockchain would revolutionize major business processes across industry niches from “banking and insurance to shipping and healthcare,” is lagging behind on the application side. Proof-of-concepts are not yet visible, so much so that industry leaders and blockchain vendors alike have diluted their expectations, and are now ready for a more pragmatic market-view. The vendors have to be more honest about the challenges and limitations of this wonder-technology and suitably re-adjust their commercial strategy.
Hopes for Blockchain in 2020
Gartner has listed blockchain as one of the top ten strategictechnologies for 2020. According to Ledgerinsights, Gartner has predicted that in the next three years, “public blockchains” will integrate with “permissioned blockchains.”
In 2020, blockchain must move beyond its POC stigma and show actual market applicability. So here are more blockchain trends to watch out for in 2020:
●Blockchain vendors will aggressively pursue industry sectors with better services and tools.
●Companies will continue to explore “tokenization” of all types of physical and digital assets.
●The Digital Asset Model Language (DAML) is likely to overthrow existing frameworks.
●As scalability and interoperability are nagging issues for blockchain deployments, in 2020, businesses will demand more scalability and “interconnectivity between networks.”
Predictions 2020: Distributed Ledger Technology Moves Beyond Proof Of Concept gives a deeper understanding of the current barriers to commercialization of blockchain. The success of another blockchain application can be found in How Blockchain Can Be Used to Secure Sensitive Data Storage. Storj.io and Sia.tech are two blockchain storage products currently poised for market success.
Major Blockchain Trends Triggered by Technology Barriers in 2019
●The previous year’s trend of cloud providers offering blockchain as a service may be an uptrend this year with more services and tools.
●The rise of “federated blockchain” with customizable blockchain networks.
●The rise of demand for blockchain experts as market applications continue to struggle through trials and experimentations.
●Businesses will have to innovate and re-skill their staff with more blockchain-oriented expertise, so that they can maximize their ROI from a blockchain deployment.
Blockchain in 2020: Wrapping Up
In 2018, most blockchain vendors were not sure of the market feedback as most industry leaders simply tinkered with the idea of blockchain without actively pursuing blockchain applications. In 2019, blockchain technology got a facelift as cloud service providers started offering blockchain as a service. This trend, if appropriately leveraged, can enhance both cloud and blockchain adoption rates at the same time.
Blockchain in 2020: 5 Trends to Watch quotes Chris Brodersen, Deloitte Americas Blockchain Lab lead, as saying:
“From an enterprise perspective, the ‘blockchain tourism’ phase has passed and companies are beyond [simply] feeling the need to understand the underlying technology details.”
Blockchain Use Cases gives a more convincing picture of blockchain as a market success.
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