Economic Worries Spreading Due to Coronavirus Pandemic
冠狀病毒大流行引發經濟擔憂蔓延
March 17, 2020 by Dan Zeiger 翻譯by虞老師
After the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) shut down the manufacturing hub of Wuhan, China, and began spreading across the globe, concerns of economists and supply management professionals were rooted in uncertainty. However, sobering clarity on the economic impact arrived during a tumultuous week in March that featured an electrocardiogram-like performance by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and consensus downward revisions in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) projections.
在新型冠狀病毒肺炎（COVID-19）關閉了中國武漢這座製造中心並開始在全球範圍內傳播之後，經濟學家和供應管理專業人員的擔憂根源於不確定性。然而，在三月整個動盪的星期中，人們對經濟影響的認識達到了令人清醒的狀態，其中道瓊斯工業平均指數表現出類似心電圖的表現，並且美國的國內生產總值（GDP）預測一致下調。
The coronavirus impact on supply chains, measured by a first-in-the-field survey by Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Research & Analytics, carried similar weight. The survey found that nearly three-fourths (72 percent) of U.S. companies have experienced supply chain disruptions due to coronavirus-related transportation restrictions, and 81 percent of organizations expect their procurement operations to be impacted by COVID-19.
美國供應管理學會研究與分析中心首次現場調查冠狀病毒對供應鏈的影響也大抵相當。調查發現，近四分之三（72％）的美國公司由於與冠狀病毒有關的運輸限制而經歷了供應鏈中斷， 81％的組織預計其採購業務會受到新冠肺炎的影響。
The ISM data was discussed in a white paper, Supply Management’s Role in Curtailing the Coronavirus Impact, released on Monday — the same day the Dow tumbled 2,997 points, the biggest single-day plunge in history. The day before, the Federal Reserve announced its second emergency interest rate cut in two weeks, bringing the rate range to 0 percent to 0.25 percent, citing “disrupted economic activity in many countries,” including the U.S.
ISM的數據在週一發佈的白皮書《供應管理在減少冠狀病毒影響中的作用》中有討論 —— 當天道瓊斯指數下跌了2,997點，為歷史上最大單日跌幅。前一天，美聯儲宣佈了兩週內第二次緊急降息，將利率範圍調整為0％至0.25％，理由是“包括美國在內的許多國家的經濟活動受到干擾。”
A Rapidly Changing Climate 氣氛變化迅速
When Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas, spoke with Inside Supply Management® in November about the outlook for 2020, he said the U.S. economy was approaching “stall speed.” But he added that there were no lurking recession-inducing dynamics like the subprime real-estate bubble burst that instigated the 2008 economic crisis.
達拉斯美洲銀行首席經濟學家羅伯特·戴伊（Robert A.Dye）博士在11月與《供應管理內部通訊》（Inside Supply Management®）談及2020年的前景時，他說美國經濟正在接近“停滯速度”。但是他補充說，沒有像次貸房地產泡沫破裂那樣的引發衰退的動因，這種動盪引發了2008年的經濟危機。
The last three months, however, have featured multiple events that could deliver a system shock capable of ending the longest economic expansion (129 months) in American history: the coronavirus pandemic, a volatile stock market, the Boeing 737 Max production shutdown and oil shock sparked by a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. That’s a confluence of setbacks that can drain consumer demand.
但是，最近三個月發生了多起事件，這些事件可能帶來一場系統性的衝擊，從而終結美國曆史上最長的經濟擴張期（129個月）：冠狀病毒大流行，股市動盪，波音737 Max停產以及俄羅斯與沙特阿拉伯價格戰引發的石油衝擊。這是一系列挫折的匯合，可能會耗盡消費者的需求。
In the last few months of 2019, U.S. consumer confidence dipped slightly but remained relatively sturdy. Those fundamentals have been shaky in recent daily readings, Dye says. “A lot of economic data we saw in January and February has become increasingly irrelevant,” says Dye, who projects 2.0-percent contraction in U.S GDP during the second quarter, a reversal from a January forecast of 1.7-percent growth. “I would put consumer confidence in that category because the daily numbers have deteriorated significantly, which warns us that the monthly numbers will start turning soft.”
在2019年的最後幾個月，美國消費者信心略有下降，但仍相對堅挺。戴伊說，在最近的每日數據中，這些基本面一直不穩定。“我們在1月和2月看到的許多經濟數據變得越來越不相關了，”戴伊說，他預計第二季度美國國內生產總值（GDP）將萎縮2.0％，與1月份預測的增長1.7％相反。“我會把消費者信心考慮進去，因為每日數據已經明顯惡化，這就警告我們，每月數據將開始疲軟。”
Relief Measures Could Help 救濟措施可能會有所幫助
Dye is keeping a close eye on such weekly labor-market data as unemployment insurance claims, as volatility in those numbers will likely erode consumer confidence. However, he feels that the interest-rate cuts — as well as likely economic-stimulus legislation — should encourage companies to invest, he says, “when they feel comfortable.” In that regard, uncertainty might remain a factor, as it’s unclear how soon the coronavirus infection rate will slow in the U.S., or if the disease will re-emerge later in the year.
戴伊正密切關注失業保險索賠等每週的勞動力市場數據，因為這些數據的波動可能會削弱消費者的信心。不過，他認為降息以及可能的經濟刺激立法應當會鼓勵企業投資，只要他們感到“舒服”即可。在這方面，不確定性可能仍然是一個因素，因為目前尚不清楚美國冠狀病毒的感染率會在多長時間內減慢，或者該病是否會在今年晚些時候再次出現。
“Hopefully, if this follows the path of SARS (the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome virus outbreak), we’ll begin seeing a decline in the number of cases by the end of June,” Dye says. “I would also expect to see a fiscal-policy response regarding taxes and spending. But for now, lower interest rates should be the start of a favorable recovery climate.”
戴伊說：“希望這能沿著SARS（2003年嚴重的急性呼吸道綜合症病毒暴發）的道路發展，到6月底，病例數將會減少。” “我還希望看到有關稅收和支出的財政政策回應。但就目前而言，較低的利率應該是有利的復甦環境的開始。”
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