WORLD PEACE FORUM, BEIJING, 9 JULY 2019

STABILISING THE WORLD ORDER: COMMON RESPONSIBILITIES, JOINT MANAGEMENT AND SHARED BENEFITS

Moderate Voices for a Shared World and Future

(Panel on Regional Security)

Thank you for inviting me to speak at the World Peace Forum. My topic will be on building a “Moderate Voice” for a shared world and future. I chose this topic because there is rising discord and distrust around the world, it is timely to exchange views on how we can work together for peace, prosperity and a stable world order.

2. Asia’s security challenges are well-known. They have contributed to a “global political warming”. But the US-China strategic rivalry in particular threatens to change the geopolitical climate. It is imperative that all countries, leaders and people help secure a peaceful and prosperous shared world and future.

3. I share my views from the perspective of a very small country with broad, deep and long-standing relationships with both the US and China. As a small country without any natural resources, trade is very important for us. We need an open world. A peaceful world is important for the survival of a small country. Singapore protects our national interests on the basis of principles and a rules-based multilateral global order, and by building friendships and adding value to the world. We have to build friendships, but more importantly, add value to others, or else we will be irrelevant.

A Trust Deficit

4. This year’s World Peace Forum is held against a backdrop of a strategic trust deficit between the US and China. We are at risk of being shackled by history, blinded by suspicions, misled by misconceptions and destroyed by zero-sum superpower rivalry.

5. The US has openly labelled China as a strategic competitor and rival, and a revisionist power. It has introduced measures to protect any perceived threats to its national security. The US has also accused China of taking advantage of the openness of the American economy by denying American companies and exports to China equal access to the Chinese market. American companies have complained about forced technology transfers and an unequal playing field between foreign and Chinese companies in China. The US government has further accused China of commercial espionage. China has refuted these allegations by pointing out the structural causes of the US’ trade deficit with China. China has also asserted that her technological advancements resulted from its own hard work as well as from partnerships between Chinese and foreign companies. Given current perceptions by both sides, it is critical to rebuild trust.

6. I am glad that President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump had a good meeting during the recent G20 Leaders Summit in Osaka. This was an important step to signal the intention at the highest level to continue talks, which will allow working-level discussions to continue more productively. More importantly, the resumption of dialogue has, at least for now, stopped the downward spiral and tit-for-tat actions in US-China relations. However, the process of building trust will take time to permeate down to the rest of the government, as well as to society.

7. When there is a trust deficit between the two largest economies in the world, how should the rest of the world react? I am reminded of the African proverb: When elephants fight, it is the grass beneath them that suffers, meaning that innocent parties get hurt in conflicts between the powerful.

8. There is also a Chinese saying – “静观其变”. Smaller countries could choose to watch passively from the sidelines, waiting to see how the situation unfolds, before deciding on their next moves.

9. Both scenarios are not ideal.

10. Smaller countries, too, are part of this world. They can, and should, play an independent and positive role in shaping the international order. They should engage the global powers to understand their geopolitical ambitions, temperament, power and reliability as friends. Based on this understanding, they can convey their concerns, as well as collectively spell out the shared world and future they want – a safe, secure, peaceful environment where all countries, big and small, can compete and cooperate on a consensus-driven, rules-based, multilateral system.

11. Let me share how we build trust in ASEAN. We are a diverse group of nations of different sizes, ethnic groups, religions, languages and political systems. Some members used to distrust one another and had fought wars. Differences still exist.

12. That said, a key feature of the ASEAN model is decision-making through consensus. Though it takes time, building consensus is necessary to manage the immense diversity within ASEAN and marry long-term regional as well as national interests.

13. Therefore, over the past 52 years, we have been able to progressively overcome our own internal differences to work together for better lives for our people. We now share a common vision of a peaceful and prosperous ASEAN Community.

14. The ASEAN model is one of trust-building through dialogue. I am sure a similar and regular tête-à-tête between leaders of our Asia-Pacific region can yield results. The one-on-one retreats between Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Xi were initiated to help build trust. This is a good move. They spend time together to know each other better, and what each other’s problems, challenges and goals for his country are.

How should other countries respond?

15. When enough countries stand together, their voices can be as loud, if not louder, than the trumpet of elephants. I call this combined voice the “Voice of Moderation”.

16. This “Voice of Moderation” is not a bloc or new grouping, but simply the voice of concerned countries, leaders, institutions, media, business and people who want to avert a catastrophic clash between the US and China. It is a voice for strategic rationality, peace and stability, growth and prosperity, and an interdependent, open, inclusive, rules-based multilateral order. Only by speaking in unison, will the global powers take heed of us.

17. ASEAN can be the central platform for countries in the region to speak in one voice on issues of common concern and amplify the regional “Voice of Moderation”.

18. We can do more than just speak up. Trade agreements like The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are excellent examples of what countries can achieve by translating shared values into action.

Future Standing of the US and China

19. In addition to building trust and working together for a shared future, I would like to reflect on the future global standing of the US and China if present trends continue.

US

20. Domestic developments in the US have reshaped how American political leaders view the rest of the world. A growing number of American politicians – both Republicans and Democrats – now blame their country’s problems on globalisation.

21. The US perspective of the world has changed. The US once took it as a matter of course that it should have a global security footprint to protect its international interests. However, it is becoming more difficult for US politicians to explain to their constituents why other countries seem to be growing at the US’ expense when large segments of the population are missing out on the benefits of globalisation. The US would like to see allies and partners contribute more to burden-sharing.

22. I can understand the struggle to reconcile these differences. In fact, all leaders should put their national interests first. However, I would be concerned if the US cedes its position of leadership in the world by defining its national interests too narrowly. Those of us who are friends of America should remind the US that the multilateral institutions and global rules-based order that it had a significant role in creating has been the bedrock of unprecedented global peace and prosperity for the last seventy years. Yes, times are changing, and old rules need updating. But for any system to work, the US and China need to work together with other countries to update the rules, and not up-end the system. The interests of other countries, big and small, must also be taken into account.

23. When it comes to China, I speak candidly as an old friend who has visited China many times and has met its leaders, from Deng Xiaoping to President Xi Jinping, and from Premier Li Peng to Li Keqiang. In fact, I first came to China in 1971. Singapore has been a consistent supporter of China’s development and integration into the global community.

24. China needs to dispel anxieties over its long-term intentions and behaviour as a global power.

25. One reason could be due to the West’s concerns of a large, powerful, non-Western country under a socialist political system that has not liberalised along with economic reforms.

26. This is further complicated by the fact that China has grown rapidly into a huge elephant. I once shared with Premier Wen Jiabao that no matter how gentle the Chinese elephant was, it had to be very careful with every move it made when in the same pool with other animals. Smaller animals could be hurt or squeezed out of the pool even though the elephant had no such intentions. Of course, the other animals must also recognise the elephant’s right to drink and grow in the same pool. But alas, it is not just the smaller animals. The big American elephant feels threatened too.

27. China could consider some of these options: First, assuage concerns that other countries may have over China’s rise. The Belt and Road Initiative is a forward-looking plan with the potential to help address Asia’s enormous infrastructure needs. At the recent BRI Forum in April, President Xi had pledged to make BRI clean, green, transparent, financially sustainable and inclusive. I believe, over time, China’s fulfilment of these commitments will address the negative allegations directed at the BRI. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can be a positive example of how an institution, operated in a manner that meets the highest international standards, could help build greater economic linkages and address the growing demand for infrastructure in Asia and beyond.

28. Second, China could take on additional responsibilities and work to strengthen the international system that has benefited China, and the world, over the past few decades. For example, the WTO is ripe for a transformative change, and China could work with others to modernise and reform our global trading system.

29. In the South China Sea, where multiple overlapping claims remain contentious, China could reassure the international community that it will observe and uphold international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. China should continue to articulate its acceptance of the right of freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, and its commitment towards peace, stability and peaceful resolution of disputes. This will help assuage worries over China’s intentions in the South China Sea, which has been an albatross around its neck in its interactions with the international community. The Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea is therefore an important opportunity for China to work with ASEAN Member States to build confidence and trust, prevent accidents, and manage any incidents on the ground within a rules-based order. At the same time, the negotiating parties should take into account the concerns of international stakeholders in this vital sea line of communication. I am glad that China and ASEAN Member States are making steady progress in the negotiations towards the COC.

Building Bridges

30. In closing, the “Voice of Moderation” should facilitate the process of developing strategic trust and cooperation between the US and China, even as the two compete. There are many global challenges that would benefit from the leadership of both global powers, such as climate change and terrorism. At the same time, we should work with the US and China to engage constructively with the rest of the world, to reassure the world of their intentions and enhance their global standing. ASEAN can, and is willing to, play a central role in this trust-building process.

31. Let me end my speech with another African proverb. “In the moment of crisis, the wise build bridges and the foolish build dams.”

32. If the US and China fail to build bridges, there may be a new Iron Curtain dividing the world. It may set us on a path with catastrophic consequences, and the Thucydides Trap may become a reality for our generation. But China is not ancient Athens and the US is not Sparta. An all-out conflict between them is also an existential threat to many other countries, whether they take sides or not.

33. Trust is the glue that binds us together in a shared future. If the US and China can restore mutual trust, supported by the “Voice of Moderation”, the world will benefit immensely from a stable global system for mutual peace and prosperity. Let us take action today to build that trust and secure our shared future.

世界和平论坛

北京

2019年7月9日

稳定国际秩序：共担、共治、共享

（区域安全专题讨论）

2. 亚洲面对的安全挑战众所周知。这些挑战虽导致世界政治局势升温，但中美战略竞争却可能迫使地缘政治气候出现变化。因此，所有国家、领导人和人民都必须出一份力，维护世界的和平与繁荣，保障我们的共同未来。

3. 我将从新加坡的视角讨论这个课题。新加坡是一个小岛国，与美国和中国有着广泛、深厚的长期合作关系。我们也是一个没有天然资源的弹丸小国， 因此国际贸易对我们很重要。一个和平的世界，对一个小国很重要。为了维护国家利益，我们秉持自己的原则，也支持基于规则的多边全球秩序，并且与世界各国建立友谊，为世界作出贡献。我们必须和其他国家建立友谊，但更重要的是，为了保持我们对他国的关联，我们也得继续扮演一个建设性的角色。

信任赤字

4. 今年的世界和平论坛在中美战略信任赤字的阴影下举行。我们面临各种险境，包括被历史束缚、被猜疑蒙蔽、被错误观念误导以及被超级大国之间的零和博弈摧毁。

5. 美国公然称中国为战略竞争对手和修正主义势力，进而采取措施，保护其可能面临的国家安全威胁。美国也指责中国利用其开放市场占尽美方的便宜，不给美国企业和出口同等机会进入中国市场。美国企业抱怨被迫转让技术，以及在华企业遭到不平等待遇。美国政府甚至指责中国从事商业间谍活动。另一方面，中国则点出了导致中美贸易赤字的结构性原因，以驳斥这些指控。中国也声明，其技术发展源于自身的努力，以及和外企的合作。鉴于双方目前的观点，重建两国之间的互信至关重要。

6. 中国国家主席习近平和美国总统特朗普近日在二十国集团大阪峰会举行会晤，我为此感到高兴。这是重要的一步，展示双方最高领导人重启谈判的意愿，这将使接下来中美官员之间磋商更具成效。更重要的是，中美双方重启对话，意味着至少在短期内，两国不再以牙还牙地斗下去，双边关系也不再陷入恶性循环。然而，互信不是一朝一夕就能建立的，还需要时间渗透到政府，乃至社会的各个层面。

7. 对于世界两个最大经济体之间的信任赤字，其他国家应该如何反应？这样的情况让我想起一句非洲谚语，“大象打架，小草遭殃”； 大国之间的冲突，往往殃及无辜小国。

8. 中国也有一句成语： “静观其变”。大国在争斗时，小国也可以选择静观其变，采取被动的旁观态度，观察事态发展，才决定下一步行动。

9. 这两种情况都不理想。

10. 小国也是这个世界的一份子。它们可以在塑造国际秩序方面，发挥独立和积极的作用，也应该这么做。小国应该与世界大国建立联系，并以朋友的身份，了解大国的地缘政治雄心、特质、力量和信用。有了这方面的理解，小国就能够向大国传达他们所关注的事项，并团结起来，一起勾勒出它们所渴望拥有的共同世界和未来 -- 一个安全、有保障以及和平的环境，让所有国家，不论大小，都能在一个由共识驱动并基于规则的多边体系中竞争与合作。

亚细安的故事

11. 现在，让我和大家分享亚细安（东盟）各国之间如何建立起互信。亚细安的成员国非常多元，不论在幅员、种族、宗教、语言和政治制度方面都截然不同。有些成员国在过去互不信任，彼此之间甚至发生过战争。时至今日，成员国之间依然存在分歧。

12. 尽管如此，通过共识制定决策是亚细安模式的一个重要特点。这样的决策过程虽然耗时，但建立共识是必要的，以便维护亚细安的极其多元，并结合区域和各国的长远利益。

13. 因此，在过去的52年里，我们逐渐克服了内部的分歧，共同为我们的人民创造更美好的生活。我们现在的共同愿景是建立一个和平与繁荣的亚细安共同体。

14. 亚细安模式是通过对话建立信任。我相信，亚太地区领导人之间定期举行类似的会晤，可以增进互信。印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与习近平主席展开了几次一对一非正式会晤，有助于促进中印两国之间的信任。这是一个好主意。两人会面长达多个小时，以更深入地认识彼此，了解彼此国家所面对的问题、挑战，以及目标。

其他国家该如何应对？

15. 当有足够的国家站在同一条阵线时，它们就可以发出响亮的声音，比大象的嗥叫声高亢。我把这些国家集体发出的声音称为“中道之声”。

16. “中道之声”不是一个集团或新的组织，而是关心世界局势的国家、领导人、机构、媒体、企业和人民，大家希望发出共同的声音，阻止美国和中国之间发生灾难性冲突。它提倡战略理性主义、和平与稳定、经济增长与繁荣，也支持相互依存、开放、包容、以规则为基础的国际秩序。我们只有一起发声，世界大国才会注意我们。

17. 亚细安可以成为一个核心平台，让本区域国家就共同关心的课题一同发表看法，扩大来自本区域的“中道之声”。

18. 我们可以做的不仅仅是发声而已。“跨太平洋伙伴全面进展协定”和“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”等贸易协定，都是各国将共同价值观转化为实际行动的典范。

中国和美国未来的地位

19. 除了探讨各国之间可以如何建立互信，携手共创未来之外，我也想谈一谈目前各种趋势如果持续下去，中美两国未来的国际地位会受到怎样的影响。

美国

20. 美国国内的发展，改变了美国政治领袖对其他国家的看法。无论是共和党或民主党，越来越多美国政治人物现在都把美国所面对的问题归咎于全球化。

21. 美国对世界的看法已有所改变。美国曾认为它在世界各地部署军力，保护其国际利益，是理所当然的事。然而，许多美国人民仍没享受到全球化所带来的好处。在这样的情况下，美国的政治人物越发难以向民众解释，为什么有些国家似乎是占了美国的便宜而取得发展。美国因此希望其盟友和合作伙伴承担更大的责任。

22. 我能够理解要弥合这些分歧有多困难。其实，每一名国家领袖都应该把自己国家的利益放在第一位。可是，如果美国将自身的利益设定得太过狭隘，进而放弃其世界领导地位，那我就会感到担忧。与美国关系友好的国家必须提醒美国，他们在创立多边机构和以规则为基础的世界秩序方面，曾扮演重要的角色，这让全世界过去七十年来得以享有空前和平与繁荣。时代固然在改变，旧有的规则必须与时俱进，但是任何体制要行之有效，中美两国就必须和其他国家共同合作，更新规则，而不是颠覆整个体制。同时，中美也必须将其他国家的利益考虑在内，不论这些国家的大小。

中国

23. 对于中国，我想以老朋友的身份坦诚地分享我的看法。我曾经多次访华，也和多名中国领导人会晤，包括邓小平先生和习近平主席等诸位国家领导人，以及李鹏和李克强等多位国务院总理。其实，我1971 年第一次来到中国。一直以来，新加坡都支持中国的发展，也支持中国融入国际社会。

24. 作为世界强国，中国必须消除其他国家对其言行和长期目标的担忧。

25. 外界对中国崛起感到担忧的一个原因可能来自西方国家对中国的顾虑。西方国家视中国为西方世界以外的强大社会主义国家，其政治体系并没有随着经济改革而进一步开放。

26. 这样的情形也因为中国已迅速发展成一头巨象而变得更加复杂。我曾经和温家宝总理说过，中国这头大象无论多么温顺，它和其他动物共处同一个池子里时，一举一动都必须格外小心，避免无意间伤害到其他体型较小的动物，甚至把他们挤出池外。当然，其他动物也必须意识到，中国这头巨象一样有权利在同一个池子里喝水、成长。不单是较小的动物觉得受到威胁，美国这头巨象也觉得如此。

27. 要让外界安心，中国可以考虑以下做法。首先，中国必须设法消除其他国家对其崛起的担忧。中国的“一带一路”倡议是一项具前瞻性的计划，能够满足亚洲对基础设施的巨大需求。在今年4月举行的“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛上，习近平主席在其演讲中承诺，“一带一路”倡议将坚持廉洁、绿色及透明理念、在经济上可持续，也具有包容性。我相信，随着时间的推移，中国将能兑现这些承诺，这也将有助于回应一些国家针对“一带一路”倡议所做出的负面指责。亚洲基础设施投资银行就是一个正面的例子，说明一个按照最高国际标准运作的机构如何能协助本区域扩大经济联系，以及应付亚洲和世界其他地区对基础设施日益增长的需求。

28. 其次，中国可以承担更多责任，并进一步加强一些国际体系，这些体系在过去数十年让中国和全世界受惠。例如，世界贸易组织进行转型的时机已经成熟，中国可以和其他国家合作，共同推动全球贸易体系的现代化和转型。

29. 另外，各国对南中国海的主权声索不但相互重叠，而且仍然存有争议。为了让国际社会放心，中国可以重申将遵守并维护国际法，包括1982年的《联合国海洋法公约》。中国也应继续表明接受南中国海域的航行自由和其上空飞越自由的权利，以及中国致力于维护和平与稳定，并承诺以和平方式解决争端。这将有助于缓解国际社会对中国在南中国海的意图的担忧，而南中国海争议一直是中国同国际社会互动的一个重大阻碍。因此，《南中国海行为准则》为中国提供一个与亚细安成员合作的契机，双方能通过这个框架，共同建立信心与信任、防止意外事故的发生，以及在以规则为基础的秩序下处理任何实地事故。与此同时，谈判各方也应把国际利益相关者对这一重要海上通讯线路的关注考虑在内。令人欣慰的是，中国和亚细安成员国就《南中国海行为准则》所进行的磋商正取得稳步的进展。

搭建互信的桥梁

30. 即使中美两国处于竞争状态，我们还是应该以“中道之声”促进两国建立战略互信与合作。两个世界强国合作，将能引领全球应付气候变化、恐怖主义等多个全球性挑战。与此同时，我们应该和中美两国进行合作，促使它们与世界各国进行建设性的互动，让外界更清楚了解它们所要落实的目标。如此一来，中美两国不但能消除各国对它们的疑虑，还能提高它们在国际上的地位。在这个建立信任的过程中，亚细安可以并愿意发挥核心作用。

31. 让我以另一句非洲谚语结束我的演讲：危急时刻，智者搭桥，愚者筑墙（In the moment of crisis, the wise build bridges and the foolish build dams）。

32. 如果中美两国无法搭建互信的桥梁，就可能形成新的铁幕，分化世界。这可能带来灾难性的后果。我们这一代人或许就无法避开“修昔底德陷阱”（ Thucydides Trap ）。所幸，中国不是古雅典，美国也不是斯巴达。即便如此，中美两国如果发生全面冲突，都将对其他国家的存在构成威胁，不论它们有没有选边站。

33. 信任把大家凝聚在一起，为了共同未来而努力。如果中国和美国能够在“中道之声”的支持下恢复互信，世界将大大受惠于一个稳定的全球体系，以促进各国的和平与繁荣。让我们今天就采取行动，建立这样的互信关系，保障我们的共同未来。