巴曙松主持、蒋丹芃采访：对话美国前财政部长顾问Craig Phillips

【特邀嘉宾】

Craig Phillips于2017年1月-2019年1月担任美国财政部长顾问，主要工作是金融机构和资本市场政策、财政政策运行、政府的资产负债管理和总体经济政策。他负责制定了13772行政令监管美国金融体系的核心原则。他协助财政部长姆努钦制定了房地产金融综合改革和财政部对两房的投资监管。此前Craig曾就职于黑石、摩根斯坦利和瑞信。他是证券化产品领域的开拓者。

对话采访人Maggie Jiang蒋丹芃是中国银行纽约分行的SVP，近期负责协助中资客户在整个美洲的日常经营融资、跨境并购、结构融资等。蒋女士之前就职瑞士信贷、巴克莱斯、和花旗集团,从事结构产品一级资本市场发行、并购咨询及融资。蒋女士也是全美华人金融协会（TCFA）董事及前主席，前美国结构产品行业协会中国委员会主席，现任纽约非赢利医疗服务中心The Family Center 董事。

【会议纪要】

（文中观点仅仅代表主讲人个人观点，不代表任何机构的意见，也不构成投资建议，仅供内部讨论）

一、中美关系/US China Relationship

蒋女士： Mr. Phillips, thank you so much for taking the time to be with us today! First, let’s start with US/China Relationship.

At one point during the earlier phase of the trade negotiations it was believed that the Trump Administration was considering a policy of limiting U.S. inflows into China. You were quoted in the press that such actions “had the potential for tremendous unintended consequences”. Why did you say that and where do you think discussions on that matter stand?

蒋女士：首先我们来聊聊中美关系。中美第一阶段谈判中，曾经传出特朗普政府正考虑禁止美国资本流入中国的措施，您当时对媒体表示这将产生非我们所愿的巨大后果。您为什么这么说？

Craig: Sure, one of the key parts of success of the global economy is the free flow of capital. At one point there was a rumor that if the U.S. cannot reach an agreement with China on trade that was acceptable, restrictions on investments into China could be introduced. I am of the opinion that would be a very poor policy and there would be no reason to link capital flows to trade negotiations. It was going to be a disadvantage for U.S. party by not giving them the opportunity to invest in China, or anywhere else where such a policy was adapted for that matter. If China reataliated with a similar policy the consequences would escalate. For instance, the United States is very dependent on Chinese flows in our Treasury debt market. So I am pleased to see that policy was not pursued and I would not expect to be on future policy agendas.

Craig: 全球经济成功的一大原因来自资本自由流动。当时有一种传言（更像是一种威胁）如果美国得不到想要的协议，就会禁止向中国投资。我认为这是非常糟糕的政策，不应该将资本流动与贸易谈判挂钩。对于美国来说，如果因此而不能投资中国或其他任何区域，将是一大损失。如果中国以牙坏牙，那么结果会进一步恶化。例如，美方本身非常依赖中国资金流入美国国债市场。因此我非常高兴这项政策没被执行，我认为这项政策也将不会出现在政策日程表上。

蒋女士：What do you see next for China and U.S. Trade talks now that a phase-one deal has been agreed?

蒋女士：中美第一阶段协议达成后，下一步怎么走？

Craig: The U.S. election is in November and we are now at the final stage of the Democratic primary to select their candidate for president. Obviously the election will also dictate the control of Senate and House of Representatives. So really everything is politics now. I think there was a very strong motivation for President Trump to reach the Phase One trade deal and to pause the phase-two agreement to after the election. I suspect that we will live with the current state throughout the year, and it won't be resumed until after the election. Obviously, if President Trump is re-elected, and I believe that he will be, he will be in charge of it. If he's not re-elected, we will see what posture a Democratic Administration may take. The American public were fatigued with the negotiations, to be honest, as I'm sure the Chinese people were. While this was a popular election issue and an issue on which President Trump was elected, there been a lot of consequences to the tariffs which many found unacceptable. So I think the US public is relieved that we got to this phase and may be satisfied if we don't open it up to another phase thereafter. That will remain to be seen based on the election.

Carig：总统大选是在11月份，我们目前所处的阶段是民主党初选，当然我们还有参众两院选举，所以现在一切都与政治相关。我认为总统特朗普有很强的意愿去先达成一个阶段性协议，并把第二阶段留在大选之后，所以2020年的中美贸易关系倾向于维持现状。如果特朗普连任，那么他会主导第二阶段谈判，如果他没有连任，我们需要观察民主党会采取何种姿态。我认为美国民众已经对谈判有些疲劳了，中国人民应该也是。这项谈判本身是特朗普当初得以当选的政治承诺之一，但在实际执行过程中对关税与原有的贸易状况造成了诸多冲击，也已经开始引发一部分人不满。我认为美国民众对第一阶段协议达成的反应是长舒一口气，如果未来宣布第二阶段不再开启（谈判就此结束），会有更多人感到解脱，当然这取决于选举的结果。

蒋女士：What do you think the market is telling us about their comfort with global trade tensions? Do we face any down-side surprises?

蒋女士：您认为市场正在以什么样的方式讲述它对全球贸易摩擦的认识？我们正面临什么下行风险吗？

Craig: I think trade tensions presented tremendous downside to the markets. And I think the thing we recognize was that China wasn't the only country that we had issues with. President Trump opened trade issues with numerous counties in a manner that was not highly disciplined sort of didn't have enough discipline and wide range of products and trade flows. This may be an ongoing characteristic of a second Trump term if re-elected. The IMF and many others have also cited trade as one of the biggest uncertainties to the world economy.

Craig: 我认为贸易争端带来了巨大的下行风险。目前我们不仅与中国有贸易争端，特朗普总统在与其他众多国家的贸易争端中也有些缺乏规则，并且具体问题广泛涉及商品和贸易。如果特朗普连任，这一特点将在其第二个任期中延续。IMF和许多其他机构已经把贸易视作全球经济的最大不确定性之一。

蒋女士：Some of the regulatory reforms were designed to make U.S. companies more competitive globally. What does that mean for cross-border capital flows and implications for emerging markets?

蒋女士：一些监管改革使美国公司更具国际竞争力，并且更好地适应了不同地区银行的要求，这对新兴市场的跨境资本流动有什么参考意义？

Craig: Global trade is complex and difficult to reduce to a bilateral basis between two countries. Our largest companies operate all around the world. They access labor markets and supply chains all around the world, not just China. So while General Motors sells a lot of cars in the U.S. also sell a lot of cars in China. BMW which is a German company, manufacture a lot of their cars here in the U.S.

Because of these factors, it is difficult to assess the impact of tariffs on U. S. companies. The general idea was that jobs would come back to the U.S. if we had “fair trade”. That may not be realistic expectation due to our cost structure, availability of natural resources and other factors.

But generally speaking, it's very important that you have companies that are competitive and pursue policies that achieve that goal.

Carig: 全球贸易极为复杂，很难将其简单的简化为两国之间的双边贸易。美国的大公司遍布世界，他们进入全球劳动力市场和供应链，这不仅是在中国。通用在中美都销售大量的汽车。宝马是德国公司，同时也在美国制造生产。

基于上述原因，很难评估关税对美国公司的影响。通常人们会认为，如果美国获得了“贸易公平”，工作岗位就会回到美国。但考虑到我们的成本结构、自然资源的可得性和其他原因，这恐怕是不切实际的期待。

简言之，非常重要的是，一个国家应该拥有具备竞争力的公司以及提高公司竞争力的政策。

蒋女士：Do you think the big US asset managers, banks, and insurance companies like Blackrock, Alliance Bersten, Fidelity, JPM Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, MetLife, New York Life, etc. are likely to expand in China in a meaningful scale later 2020, or they are still watching out on how the Chinese government and related agencies can carry out the phase one trade agreement first? Or would the mid to small size asset managers/banks more likely to make the first move?

蒋女士：您认为美国大型资产管理公司、银行和保险公司,比如Blackrock, Alliance Bersten, Fidelity, JPM Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, MetLife, New York Life等公司是否会在2020年以后扩大在中国的经营规模？他们还在观望中国政府和相关机构如何实施第一阶段贸易协议吗?中小型资产管理公司/银行更有可能迈出第一步吗？

Craig: For almost three years I listened to a lot of CEO and they really have two issues. The number one issue was just equal access to the domestic Chinese market. Because the US allows China, as well as every other country, to invest in businesses here we would like symmetrical treatment. The other issue is improving the protection of intellectual property.

So I really do think that the Chinese government would be well served to allow financial institutions to enter China. I think that move would promote economic growth and opportunity in both countires. It also may mitigate future and tougher stances on trade negotiations. Historically, many of the companies you mentioned, like Blackrock, JP Morgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, access the financial market in China through subsidiaries in Hong Kong or by entering joint ventures. Hopefully, new policy will allow them to consider creating on-the-ground presence to operate in China. A long term stable environment of trust between the two countries with lessen tension on trade in the long run.

I also think that China will benefit from the innovation that U.S. companies could introduce in the domestic market. So you do have a lot of things in China that mirror things that exist in the western world, but you duplicate things in Chinese terms. There will be a meaningful increase in commerce and investment ideas and innovation. China will benefit from investing around the world, so honestly, if you don't allow equal investment in China, eventually other countries may limit investment opportunities around the world, which won't really help China.

Craig：我在过去三年听取了很多CEO们的意见。提到最多的是希望能够对等的进入中国市场，因为美国允许中国和其他国家在美投资，我们希望能够获得对等的对待另一个问题是改进知识产权保护。因此我认为，如果允许金融机构进入中国，中国政府将从中获益。这不仅会促进中美双方的经济增长和更多的机会，而且还可能缓和美方未来在贸易谈判中更加强硬的立场。你提到的许多公司，如Blackrock，JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley，他们历史上多通过香港的分支机构或以合资企业的形式进入中国。希望新的安排能让他们考虑在中国的业务进一步落地。两国之间长期稳定的信任环境从长远来看会降低贸易紧张程度。

我还认为，中国将从美国公司进入中国国内市场带来的创新中受益。在中国确实有很多东西是西方世界的翻版，但是你们用中国的方式复制。这将会促成商业、投资理念和创新的显著增长。中国将从世界各地的投资中受益。所以老实说，如果不允许在中国进行平等的投资，最终其他国家可能会限制世界各地的投资机会，这对中国没有好处。

蒋女士：The Phase one agreement almost mentioned that US will expedite the outstanding license application by CITIC 中信 and CICC 中金. What kind of timeline do you think this can be? Will this be conditioned on China’s progress in opening up its financial markets?

蒋女士：第一阶段协议中提到美国将加快中信和中金的许可申请，您有什么时间节点上的判断吗? 这是否仍取决于中国开放金融市场的进展?

Craig: I agree with that it is a 2-way street. Our host for this session today, the Bank of China, operates a large subsidiary here in the U.S. Encouraging Chinese broker dealers to operate in the U.S. is good policy. It will create a healthier capital flows between the countries.

Craig：我认为这是双向的。今天我们讨论的主持人（注：蒋丹芃女士）来自中国银行，中国银行在美国有一家很大的分行。鼓励中国的券商进入美国市场是一项好措施。这会促成双方更为健康的资本流动。

二、美国大选/US Election

蒋女士： We are in the midst of US election cycle now. What do you think the market is telling us about the outcome of the 2020 elections?

蒋女士：我们目前正处于美国大选的中段，您认为是市场告诉我们怎样的选举结果？

Craig: I think the market has been very bullish and has been able to absorb a lot of bad news, such as military tension, immigration issues and many other factors. The virus is another factor introducing tremendous uncertainty.

But I think in general, the U.S. market is now pricing in a Trump re-election. The market is certainly not pricing in the consequences of an extremely progressive Democrat being elected. On the democratic side, there's surely some very radical policies that are being advocated like socialist type ideas of free education, universal health care and the series of other benefits that if they were enacted and they clearly have social value, but would probably significantly increase the deficit, and the deficit is already very high. So once we know who the Democratic candidate is we can assess the range of outcomes of the election and that may be reflected in the market, depending on the outcome.

The other big factor that may impact the market is the direction in tax policy. The Trump tax policy has been good for the market. Obviously, part of the reason why we are still in a continued expansion is we are in a the lower tax rates to make US more competitive. Some of the candidates are in favors of raising tax rates and , in some cases, eliminating capital gains benefits. So as we get closer to the election this factor could also have an impact.

So I think the market is more positioned to assume President Trump is re-elected.

Craig：我认为到目前为止美国股市一直非常强劲，并且经受住了诸如军事冲突、移民问题以及许多其他要素的打击。但是，当前新冠病毒带来了巨大的不确定性。

但我认为市场总体在定价特朗普会连任，显然市场当前的价格并未反映激进的民主党人会获胜。在美国国内，竞选中当然会提倡一些激进的政策方针，如社会主义类型的免费教育、全民医保以及一系列竞选承诺。这些承诺固然具有社会价值，但这也同时将导致本身就已极高的赤字变得不可收拾。因此一旦我们知道民主党候选人是谁，我们就可以评估选举结果的范围。这可能反映在市场上，具体如何反映取决于选举结果。

另外一个影响市场的重要因素是税收政策的方向。特朗普的税收政策对市场有利。很明显，我们仍在持续扩张的部分原因是美国的税率更低，使美国更有竞争力。一些候选人倾向于提高税率，在某些情况下，取消资本利得收益。所以随着大选的临近，这个因素也会产生影响。

所以我认为市场更倾向于认为特朗普总统会连任。

蒋女士：The 2016 election result has been surprising, do we face any downside surprises now?

蒋女士：2016年的大选结果令人大跌眼镜，我们目前看得到相关风险吗？

Craig: The U.S. is right now very bitterly divided along partisan lines. Also many do not like the styla and personality of President Trump not respect how he has staffed his Administration. I think the election will come out to be very close, and it's very hard project. Who the Democrats select to run is a big factor. But at this point I would tend to agree with the market. Trump is more likely to be reelected than not.

Craig：美国现在的党派分歧非常严重。还有很多人不喜欢特朗普总统的风格和个性，不认可他组织政府的方式。我认为选举结果会非常接近，这会非常艰难。民主党选择谁来竞选是一个重要因素。但在这一点上，我倾向于同意市场的看法，特朗普连任的可能性更大。

三、美国经济与市场/ Economy & Market

蒋女士：The “lower for longer” rates environment is now with us. How is it impacting the U.S. and global economy? What policy options do Central Banks have available to them?

蒋女士：我们现在处于长期低利率环境中，这将如何影响美国与全球经济？央行还有什么政策选项？

Craig: I never thought that we would have rates as low as they are. When I joined the Treasury, our deficit had been rising and I really thought that would drive interest rates higher. But you just have saw very strong stimulation (of low interest rate policy) out of Europe, a lot of negative rates and sort of a flight to quality, which has driven US rates a very low level. So this is creating potential bubble in asset prices, because people can fund assets so cheaply. At the same time, it is creating some real pressure on bank and insurance company earnings and also putting a lot of pressure on people to save for retirement and grow their assets.

So I think low rates are an outcome that we're going to live with it for a long time. A consequence is that it leaves very few policy options to stimulate the economy in the event of a shock or a downturn. So here we are having a long recovery, but there will be a downturn that I am not really sure how you could stimulate it then since we have such low rates now.

So we talk about quantitative easing, but central banks also still have very elevated balance shets. So I think there are something we should assume, we have low rates for a long time and I think they have put a lot of pressure on the performance of the financial sector and savers, and it leaves very few policy options to stimulate the economy when we needs to.

Craig：我从未想到我们处于如此低的利率中。当初我加入财政部时，美国的赤字因短期减税政策而攀升，我本以为这将引发利率上升。但正如你看到的，欧洲经历的负利率泛滥以及资产逐利，间接导致了美国利率下行至低水平，并借由低廉的融资成本进一步创造了潜在的资产泡沫。然而低利率同时给银行、保险公司以及其他依赖利差为生的机构以极大的盈利压力，同时对于为退休和资产增长储蓄的人们构成了威胁。

我认为我们将继续与低利率共存相当长的时间。其结果就是，当面临冲击或经济下行时，政策空间极其有限，而在经历了如此长时间的复苏之后，我们总会碰到周期下行，而目前的低利率让我不知道届时的刺激空间在哪。

谈到量化宽松，央行资产负债表规模庞大。因此，我们应该假设，低利率已经相当长的时间了，这对金融板块与储户造成很大压力，并且可能导致经济在需要刺激时缺乏手段。

蒋女士：There is much commentary on the status of the U.S. corporate credit market, and particularly leveraged loans. Do you see volatility there and how is it impacting the CLO market?

蒋女士：目前市场对美国企业信贷市场十分关注，尤其是杠杆贷款市场。您是否在企业信贷市场看到波动率即将上升， 这对担保贷款凭证（CLO）市场又将产生什么影响？

Carig:

First of all, there's a lot less leverage in the system than there was before the last crisis. Banks are much better capitalized with transparent liquidity requirements, perform stress tests and have resolution plans. I believe that despite we are at late cycle, the credit markets of the U.S. economy and the banking system are in a very strong shape.

The last down turn was led by the consumer and particularly mortgage borrowing that was too risky which led to a collapse in house prices and many mortgage delinquencies. Right now U.S. housing market is in an extremely conservative shape. Home equity is almost 17 trillion, our mortgage debt is about 10 or 10.7 trillion, but the home values are worth over 27 trillion. So the home equity cushion is extremely high.

So when people talk about the corporate market, by comparison, corporate debt has risen quite a bit. Total corporate debt is at a secular high of 48% of the GDP. More public companies operate with lower ratings, down to BBB, as they are rewarded by buying back stock and financing themselves more aggressively.

I think at the margin, if we had a recession, you attend to see maybe more impact on the US corporate credit market than the consumer market initially. Some of that debt is financed in the CLO market. I think the CLO are well-structured, the risks are well described, and I think investors know what they're buying. There are AAA tranches that are purchased by banks and other conservative, institutional investors. Also higher yield bought by hedge funds and others. I think most people know what they are buying. The size of the CLO market is less than a trillion dollars. So it's just not big enough really to move the whole U.S. economy. So we might have some setback within the cycle at corporate debt, probably rotating based on sectors.

Craig:我认为美国经济目前非常健康，并没有看到什么崩盘或金融恐慌迹象。因此每当人们高呼恐慌就要来到时，我并不同意。第一，我们现在有着比金融危机前更低的杠杆，银行的资本充足率更高，它们有透明的流动性要求，进行压力测试，并有解决方案。我认为尽管我们处于晚周期，美国经济的信贷市场和银行系统都处于一个非常好的状态。

上次危机是由消费者、尤其是风险极高的抵押贷款导致的，这导致了房价暴跌和许多抵押贷款拖欠。目前，美国房地产市场处于极度保守的状态。房屋净值接近17万亿美元，我们的抵押贷款债务约为10万亿或10.7万亿美元，但房屋价值超过27万亿美元。因此房屋净值安全垫非常高。

公司债市场有所不同，公司债务有所上升，其占总GDP比重已经到达了48%的历史高点，这主要是由于上市公司不断回购股票回购，融资更为激进。因此目前上市公司中BBB评级的公司更多了。

边际上看，如果我们将迎来一场衰退，美国企业信贷市场受到的冲击可能比消费者更大，而在企业信贷市场中的部分债务融资是通过担保贷款凭证（CLO）完成的。我认为担保贷款凭证结构良好，风险描述清晰，换言之购买者知道他们在买什么——银行和其他保守投资者往往持有AAA评级的部分，高收益型部分被对冲基金与其他机构买走。此外，担保贷款凭证的市场规模在万亿美元以下，而整个杠杆贷款市场加起来也不过是1.3万亿美元，体量不足以撼动整个美国经济。因此，在企业债务周期内，我们可能会遇到一些挫折，会根据行业出现轮动。

四、金融监管/ Regulation

蒋女士：Now turning the topic to regulations. Last June, Bloomberg News described you as the architect of much of President Trump’s plans for relaxing regulation for our financial institutions and capital markets. Where does that initiative stand?

蒋女士：我们来聊聊金融监管吧，去年6月，彭博将您描述为特朗普放松金融机构与资本市场监管计划的总设计师，他为何这么说？

Craig: Part of the task I had was just leading a study of regulation. And our general belief was that since the crisis there have been layers and layers of regulation introduced to our financial institutions that have become burdensome, particularly for smaller financial positions. So one of the main developments we advocated for relief for community banks and regional banks. So we did pass a major piece of banking legislation that raised the threshold for CCAR and exempt banks under $10 billion of assets from the Volcker Rule and a series of other things.

But for largest banks, there hasn't been much change at all. So I think that attitude initiative has been good to get credit flowing better, less burden on consumer and on decrease unnecessary regulation. Our largest banks still have the same level liquidity, capital and capital rules with a little more transparency and things like stress testing.

But I think the vision is laid out, the banking bills passed, and the current regulators are finishing the process. Some of the rulemaking does take a while. So there are still things in motion.

Craig：我的部分职责是领导一项关于监管的研究。我们的总体观点是危机之后金融机构被施加了过多的监管，以至于对它们造成了沉重的负担，尤其是小金融机构。因此，我们的一项重要任务就是为社区银行与区域银行减负。相应的，我们通过了一项提高CCAR（美联储综合资本分析和审查）审查门槛的重要银行法案，并免除了资产低于百亿美元银行包括沃尔克法则在内的一系列限制。

但对于大银行来说，监管还没有改变太多。我认为我们的出发点是让信贷更自由地流通，降低消费者的负担，并减少不必要的监管。大银行在流动性、资本充足率以及资本规则上没有变化，并且还有更多的透明度，以及压力测试之类的要求。

但我认为前景已经确定，银行法案已经通过，目前的监管机构正在完成这一过程。一些规则的制定确实需要一段时间。所以仍然有一些行动还处在过程中。

蒋女士：The Administration wants to end the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What does that mean for international investors and the U.S. housing market?

蒋女士：政府打算结束对房地美和房利美的接管，这对国际投资者以及美国房地产市场意味着什么？

Craig: The US government plays a large role in housing finance. In the U.S., we have a number of insured and guaranteed programs, 40% of the housing finance is funded by Fannie and Freddie. Brining the whole government share to 65% or 70%.

And so the government part is a big part of the system. Fannie and Freddie failed during the last crisis and were put into conservatorship. Our recommendation was that they be rehabilitated as private company, They will be allowed to build capital again to be able to absorb losses during times of stress and to protect the taxpayer.

Treasury has advocated for legislative changes that reform the system and support the release from conservatorship. But in the absence of such legislation, the Administration favors ending the conservatorships through administrative means. Preparation of that work appears to be well underway. Treasury stopped sweeping the dividends into U.S. Treasury and Fannie and Freddie are both companies are now building up capital through their earnings. These two companies earn in aggregate over $25 billion a year, so over the course of four years, they would build up a hundred billion capital. Under the most recent capital rule that is still under consideration, they would require total capital of $150 to 160 billion, so some external capital-raising is required.

Since we are having election year, this process might be paused. Obviously, that raises some risk. If President Trump is re-elected I believe we will see and end to the conservatorships of the GSE early in the next term.

Craig: 美国政府在房地产融资市场扮演重要角色，我们拥有一系列政府担保项目，40%的房地产融资都是通过房地美和房利美完成的，这使得政府在房地产融资中的占比达到65%~70%。因此政府是美国住房体系中的重要角色。房地美和房利美在上次危机中失败并接受了政府接管，我们的建议是私有化，允许它们重新建立资本，以便在压力时期能够承受损失，并保护纳税人。

美国财政部主张对住房金融体系进行立法改革，并支持解除政府对两房的接管。但在缺乏相关立法的情况下，政府更倾向于通过行政手段终止接管。这项工作的准备工作正在顺利进行。财政部停止了两房对财政部的股息发放，两房现在都在通过收益积累资本。这两家公司每年的总收益超过250亿美元，所以在四年的时间里，他们积累了1000亿美元的资本。根据最新的仍在考虑中的资本规则，他们将需要1500到1600亿美元的总资本，因此需要一些外部融资。

由于2020年是大选年，这一进程可能会暂停。显然，这带来了一定的风险。如果特朗普总统再次当选，我相信我们将在其下一个任期初就看到改革方案，以及政府结束对两房的接管。

蒋女士：On affordability of housing and house ownership, what did US policies makers do or can do in the future in these area to maintain the affordability to the general public?

蒋女士：在房屋可负担层面，美国的政策制定者做了什么，或者未来能做什么来帮助普通大众买得起房子?

Craig: One reason the government is so active in the market is people in the US prefer a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, and the only way to create a 30 year fixed rate is to give originators the ability to sell into the secondary market through securitization.

But the problem is there're shortage of housing built up over time since the crisis. We are very concentrated areas of tremendous economic growth and activity, both in San Francisco and New York. In those areas, It's just harder for the average person to afford a house, so housing affordability is a major social issue.

You can only do so much of that to financing, because if you make risky address your mortgages, you're just recreating the subprime crisis, which is no good. So I think policy makers need to keep working on other factors of effect, the creation of more housing supply, more affordable supply, some of that is the individual building laws and local laws. This requires looking at policies that help homeowners but also renters.

Craig: 政府在美国住房金融市场上如此活跃的一个原因是美国人通常选择30年期的固定利率抵押贷款，而创造30年期固定利率抵押贷款的唯一方法是将其证券化。问题是，自金融危机以来住房建造不足，且美国是经济活动非常集中的经济体，经济活动集中在旧金山地区、纽约等地，一般人很难在这些地方承担购房支出，住房负担是一个主要的社会问题。

而关于融资政府也无法做更多，因为过高风险的抵押贷款会带来下一次次贷危机。显然这并非好事。所以我认为政策制定者需要继续研究其他影响因素，如提供更多的住房供应，更多的负担得起的住房供给，个人住房及相关本地法规的制定。这就需要制定政策来同时帮助购房者和租房者。

五、金融科技/ FinTech

蒋女士：Fintech has been a hot topic among the financial professionals for many reasons.

You are the architect of Fintech/Blockchain report published by the US Government, can you share your views on the current status of Cryptocurrency, and more broadly, block chain application in business?

蒋女士：金融科技一直是金融从业者们的热门话题，这其中原因有很多。您是美国政府发布的金融科技/区块链报告的起草者，您能否就加密货币的现状，以及更广泛的区块链在商业中的应用，分享您的观点?

Craig: All the financial technology is booming here in the U.S. amongst companies of all sizes. And it's going across the whole ecosystem, impacting banking services and deposit accounts, consumer and commercial lending, mortgage lending, and payments. Almost every aspect of the financial system is benefiting from increased speed, use of data and mobile computing. So first of all, I'm extremely positive on the value of ongoing innovation.

We think this would be a level playing field. So people are in banking, they should regulate it like a bank. Encouraging financial institutions to partner with technology companies, and having regulatoion that facilitates that, helps accelerate innovation. So while the biggest banks in the country can create their own financial innovation, most banks need a partner or buy services. I think it lowers the cost of credit, increases access to financial services, and also just modernize the other system. Block Chain is one part of financial innovation and will play an important role in the financial system.

So the SEC and the CFTC are working with regulators around the world to create a consistent and predictable regulatory environment for digital assets. So I think the block chain market will expand and it will be a meaningful role in the technology. I think the crypto market has the catch up with that.

Craig：金融技术正在美国各种规模的企业中蓬勃发展。它正在跨越整个金融生态系统，影响银行服务和存款账户，消费者和商业贷款，抵押贷款和支付。金融系统的几乎每个方面都受益于速度的提高、数据的使用和移动计算。首先，我非常肯定持续创新的价值。

我们认为这将是一个公平的竞争环境。从事银行业的业务，应该按照银行来进行监管。鼓励金融机构与科技公司合作，并推进便利双方合作的监管，有助于促进创新。我认为这降低了信贷成本，增加了金融服务的可及性，也使其他一些体系更加现代化。区块链就是其中之一，并将会发挥重要作用。

SEC和CFTC正在与世界各地的监管机构合作, 他们正在试图为数字资产创造一致的、可预测的监管环境。因此，我认为区块链市场将会扩大，它将在科技中扮演重要角色，加密货币已经迎头赶上。

蒋女士：Do you follow Libra of Facebook?

蒋女士：您关注Facebook的Libra吗？

Craig: Facebook encountered a lot of resistance to their ideas watching a currency back coin to be used as payment. They did have a consortium of companies that would use it. I think they just had a little ahead of themselves in terms of working with the financial regulators around the world on the plan. Also, as a company, there's such a big difference between being a social media company and a financial services company, something Facebook perhaps did not given evough consideration to. In policy circles, the company had a reasonable amount of unresolved issues around trust, privacy and other issues. So I think unfortunately the reaction was less about the cryptocurrency and more about Facebook entering financial services. I hope Facebook and their partners can find a way to move forward with this innovative idea. The idea of having a stable coin crypto and an inter-connected global payment system is an interesting one.

Craig：Facebook在用于支付的电子货币Libra上遭遇了许多阻力。他们确实有一个使用它的公司联盟，但我认为他们在与世界各地的金融监管机构就该计划进行合作方面有点超前了，社交媒体公司和金融服务公司之间有很大的区别，这一点他们缺乏考虑。在政策圈，该公司在信任、隐私和其他问题上有相当多的未解决问题。所以我认为不幸的是，人们的反应更多的是Facebook进入金融服务领域，而不是加密货币。我希望Facebook和他们的合作伙伴能够找到一种方式来推进这个创新的想法。拥有稳定的硬币密码和相互连接的全球支付系统是一个有趣的想法。

蒋女士：Can you share with us the landscape of FinTech in US? How are the big tech giants shaping up the financial industry and how have the traditional banking system overhaul itself due to the new challenges from outsiders?

蒋女士：你能和我们分享一下美国的金融科技吗?大型科技巨头是如何塑造金融业的?传统的银行体系又是如何在外界的新挑战下进行自我改革的?

Craig: the biggest thing happening in the US is probably the same as China that people just want to leverage their mobile connectivity. Simply stated, people expect to access financial services by their phone – it is the new bank branch. Speed, better use of data and lower costs are all part of that. It should also help financial inclusion. You have to have the right approach to cyber security is, to protect data and avoid idendity fraud, among other things. increase to the digital identity theft and other factors.

There is a surge of banks partnering with fintech innovators and that is a very positive trend.

Craig: 美国今天的情况和中国类似，人们更偏好移动互联网系统。因此，人们希望通过手机获得金融服务，手机成为了新的银行分支。速度、更好的数据利用和更低的成本都是其中的一部分。它还应该有助于提高金融包容。你必须有正确的方法来处理网络安全，保护数据，避免身份欺诈和数字身份盗窃等因素。

与金融科技创新者合作的银行数量激增，这是一个非常积极的趋势。

巴曙松教授：

Hi Mr. Phillips, Maggie and all the friends here

Thanks for your time and insightful views. Mr. Phillips’s researches cover different fields, ranging from the financial markets and the economy to the forefront of Fintech. All his influential researches enriched our minds. Among them, China-US relations are one of the most important bilateral relations. Currently, the whole world is concerned with the economy and financial markets of China and the US as well as trade relations between them. All the issues undoubtedly affect the global economy. The outbreak of coronavirus in 2020 affected the global industrial chain, which makes us deeply feel that the whole world’s manufactures and industries are closely linked. Under this situation, our dialogues are proved to be more worthwhile.

At the same time, I also want to thank Maggie for her actively organizing and facilitating this interview. The Wall Street dialogue has lasted for 141 sessions. The event was originally set up to promote exchanges between the financial instituts of China and the U.S. Under the background of trade war, it is more valuable to continue the non-official dialogue between China and the U.S. Thanks to the initiatives from many friends like Maggie, Wall Street dialogue can last for more than six years. I hope that more friends from the financial fields of the two countries continue to contribute your wisdom and enhance the exchanges. Thank you for your participation. And thanks again to Mr. Phillips for his wonderful speech.

巴曙松教授：

Phillips先生和Maggie，以及线上的各位朋友，大家好！

谢谢Phillips先生带来的富有洞察的观点。Phillips先生今天涉及的领域非常广泛，从金融市场、宏观经济到最前沿的Fintech都颇有研究，给我们带来了一场内容丰富的问答。其中，中美关系是全球最重要的双边关系之一，中美各自的宏观经济金融运行以及中美经贸关系到全球经济的冷热，无疑是全球最为关切的问题。2020年新冠肺炎疫情爆发对全球产业链的冲击，更让我们深刻的感受到，各国的产业已经是环环相扣。在这个背景下，这次讨论也更有价值。

同时，也感谢Maggie积极组织联系促成了本次访谈。连线华尔街对话，从我2013年到哥伦比亚大学商学院担任高级访问学者时发起，至今已经持续了141期，活动设立的初衷是促进中美双方金融界的交流。在当前中美贸易战的背景下，坚持中美间的市场与民间对话更有价值，他们的讨论都仅仅代表个人的意见，不代表任何机构的看法。正是有像Maggie等不少来自中美两国金融界的朋友积极联络推动，连线华尔街能够持续6年多的时间。也希望各位中美金融界的朋友继续贡献智慧，加强中美金融界额交流。感谢大家的参与。也再次感谢Mr Phillips的精彩演讲。

六、Q&A

Q1: I have a question about the coronavirus. I'm interested to hear more about your thought on the pandemic in China and as well as on the world economy in the short term and long term impact.

Q1：我有一个关于冠状病毒的问题,我很想听听您对于疫情对世界经济的短期和长期影响方面的看法。

Craig:

While we are in early days, we are just seeing how fear of the virus will impact the global economy. That may be the larger risk relative to the medial risk that the virus presents. I think the stock market reaction is probably appropriate. There are a lot of unknowns.

Craig:首先，我不是这方面的专家，所以我没有任何特别的信息可以透露。我认为我们现在仍然处在未知中。中国的病例之多在中国引起巨大反响，而病毒正在向其他国家和地区蔓延。虽然我们还处于早期阶段，但我们刚刚看到对这种病毒的恐惧将如何影响全球经济。这可能是相对于病毒风险而言更大的风险。我认为股市的反应可能是适当的。目前仍有很多未知数。

Q2：Will the spread of coronavirus have negative impact on the global industry chain，will it speed up the decoupling，especially between China and the United States？

Q2：冠状病毒的传播是否会对全球产业链产生负面影响，是否会加速脱钩，特别是中美之间的脱钩?

Craig: The virus is clearly interrupting businesses in China. That presents an immediatel supply chain problem to U.S. companies. We don't know yet the magnitude，I mean in some cases businesses have been closed, people been sent home – the real question is how long that will continue. Obviously personal and business travel is being interrupted to and from China which in turn will have a second order impact. So it is too early to assess the impact but it clearly might be significant.

Craig: 病毒显然正在干扰中国的商业活动。这给美国公司带来了迫在眉睫的供应链问题。我们还不知道其规模。我的意思是，在某些情况下，企业已经关闭，人们被送回家——真正的问题是这种情况会持续多久。显然，往返中国的个人和商务旅行正在被中断，这反过来又会产生二次影响。因此，现在评估其影响还为时过早，但它显然可能影响巨大。

Q3：How do you think the election will go and how will it influence the US market?

Q3：您如何看待选举，它将如何影响美国市场？

Craig: I think the difference between some of the potential candidates are very large. From the international side, the most important thing is to wait and see who is running against President Trump. So while President Trump has a clear identity the others in the Democratic field are less well know. They also lack, for the most part, wide scale funding. Personally, I think we will end up with a more moderate candidate that arises with the nomination, but that remains to be seen.

Craig: 我认为潜在的候选人之间的差异是非常大的。从国际层面来看，最重要的事情是静观其变，看谁会和特朗普总统的竞选。特朗普总统风格鲜明，相比而言人们对民主党其他候选人缺乏了解，因此在很大程度上他们也缺乏大规模的竞选资金。就我个人而言，我认为随着提名的出现我们最终会有一个更温和的候选人，但这还有待观察。

Q4：Do you think there will be any adjustment on the Phase One agreement because of the coronvirus?

Q4：你认为第一阶段的协议会因为疫情而有任何调整吗?

Craig: I must say I haven't really thought of it. I hope that the coronavirus is not of a magnitude that it requires sort of a global repositioning of anything, trade or any other laws，hopefully we don't really get to that point. I don't know any humanitarian reasons, at this day, that would result in any change in policies or trade policies. The U.S. people are compassionate and worried about the humanitarian impact of the virus in China and around the world.

Craig：我得说我还没有真正想过。我希望冠状病毒的冲击不那么大，不需要全球重新定位任何贸易规则或其他法律，希望我们不会真的达到那个程度。我不知道有什么人道主义原因会导致任何政策或贸易政策的改变。美国人民很有同情心，并对该病毒在中国和世界各地造成的人道主义影响感到担忧。

本文为内部交流纪要，未经主讲嘉宾本人审阅，所载信息均为个人观点，不代表任何机构的意见，仅供“全球市场与中国连线”的活动参会人员使用。纪要根据参会者发言整理，不保证相关信息的准确性和完整性。纪要中所述内容和意见仅供参考，不构成对所述资产的投资建议。

本文版权为“全球市场与中国连线”会议秘书处所有，本团队对本纪要保留一切权利，未经事先书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复印、发表或引用本纪要的任何部分。

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