The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is causing increasing impacts on global supply chains, disrupting supply, inventories, production, deliveries and more. Simon Croom, Ph.D., professor of supply chain management in the Master’s in Supply Chain Management program at the University of San Diego School of Business, discusses the impacts, what to expect and strategies in this Q&A:
冠狀病毒（COVID-19）的爆發正在加速影響全球供應鏈，擾亂供應、庫存、生產、交付甚至更多。西蒙·克魯姆，哲學博士，聖地亞哥大學商學院供應鏈管理碩士課程供應鏈管理教授，在此問與答裡討論冠狀病毒疫情的影響、期望及策略：
Question: How has the COVID-19 outbreak impacted global supply chains/supply chain organizations so far, and how far-reaching are the disruptions likely to be?
問：截止當前，冠狀病毒疫情對全球供應鏈/供應鏈組織的影響如何？並且這些破壞可能有多深遠?
Answer: The virus is impacting global supply chains with upstream supply links in the affected regions in China, as well as demand from consumers and retailers in China. So many global manufactured products have some Chinese content — even in the second, third or more tiers removed from the prime manufacturer. Also, the exposure due to factory closures after the typical (Lunar) New Year break is causing disruptions in returning to full production rates. The pressure due to far lower in-transit (pipeline) inventories is presenting significant challenges in continuity of operations.
答：該病毒正在影響中國受影響地區上游供應鏈的全球供應鏈，以及中國消費者和零售商的需求。如此眾多的全球製成品都包含一些中國元素，甚至在從主要製造商之外的二級，三級或更多層級也是如此。此外，在典型的（農曆）新年假期後工廠關閉而爆發的疫情也導致生產完全中斷。較低的在途庫存所帶來的壓力對運營的連續性提出了重大挑戰。
Most significantly, the impact has risen uncertainty in supply chain planning and forecasting to almost unprecedented levels across so many sectors. Risk strategies dealing with such events struggle to accommodate the potential for mass infection, labor shortages across the supply chain and uncertainty regarding immediate- and medium-range supply and demand. The potential for a black swan bullwhip effect is considerable, in a wide range of sectors.
最重要的是，這種影響使供應鏈計劃和預測中的不確定性上升到許多行業幾乎前所未有的水平。處理此類事件的風險策略難以適應潛在的大規模感染，整個供應鏈中的勞動力短缺以及近期和中期供應與需求的不確定性。在許多領域，黑天鵝牛鞭效應的潛力是巨大的。
Services are also affected, particularly tourism and hospitality, and our own industry of higher education has seen university students and faculty directly impacted due to the quarantine restrictions faced by those who traveled to China for the holidays or international-study experiences. However, retailers are likely to be the hardest-hit sector in the coming weeks and months as inventories dry up and shipments, already reduced, similarly slow down significantly to the point at which few, if any, supplies will be arriving in the U.S. and Europe, leading to empty shelves.
服務也受到影響，尤其是旅遊業和酒店業，而我們自己的高等教育行業也由於來華度假或進行國際學習的人所面臨的檢疫限制，直接影響了大學生和教師。但是，由於庫存枯竭和已經減少的出貨量，零售商可能會成為未來幾周和幾個月內受災最嚴重的行業，同樣，該行業的速度也將顯著放緩，以至於幾乎沒有（如果有的話）貨物到達美國和歐洲，導致貨架空空蕩蕩。
The critical factor is obviously containment of the virus. If it is nearing its peak now, the global supply chain impact could be short-lived — possibly into the second quarter, but not the third.
關鍵因素顯然是病毒的遏制。如果現在接近峰值，對全球供應鏈的影響可能是短暫的，可能持續到第二季度，而不是第三季度。
Q: How and when will we know the full extent?
問：我們如何以及何時知道全部影響範圍？
A: The effects are already being felt in short supply chains, but in the coming months, the spread of COVID-19 will be a critical variable in determining precisely what the full extent looks like. It may well be another three to six weeks before the scale of potential disruption becomes apparent. This is largely predicated on the transport time from China to key U.S. ports.
It has been claimed that the impact reduces global gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.3 percent this year, but that’s dependent on the extent of the virus’s spread and efforts by producers and retailers to reclaim lost revenues and output.
答：在短的供應鏈中已經開始感受到這種影響，但是在接下來的幾個月中，COVID-19的傳播將成為精確確定整個範圍的關鍵變量。潛在破壞的規模可能還要再等三到六週才能顯現出來。這很大程度上取決於從中國到美國主要港口的運輸時間。
據稱，這種影響使今年的全球國內生產總值（GDP）下降了1.3％，但這取決於病毒的傳播程度以及生產商和零售商為彌補損失的收入和產出而做出的努力。
Q: Are all organizations realizing an impact, or only those with ties to China?
問：是所有組織都意識到了該影響，還是隻有與中國有關聯的組織才有影響？
A: Supply chains are extended beyond immediate contractual relationships, so a supplier may have links to China that the customer may not even be aware of. And there are potential second- or lower-tier suppliers in China to consider. So, organizations could rely on indirect supplies from a domestic provider, but they in turn may have an extensive Chinese supply base.
答：供應鏈的延伸超出了直接的合同關係，因此供應商可能會與客戶建立聯繫，而客戶甚至可能不知道。在中國，有潛在的二級或下級供應商需要考慮。因此，組織可以依靠國內供應商的間接供應，但它們反過來可能擁有廣泛的中國供應基礎。
Q: How have organizations been mitigating the risks of the outbreak on their supply chains?
問：組織如何減輕疫情爆發對供應鏈造成的風險？
A: This depends on the inventories held prior to Lunar New Year, including pipeline inventories and alternate sources of supply. Lean practices and sole sourcing naturally exacerbate the problem and impact. Options have included alternate suppliers, regional rather than global sourcing, and the ability to substitute. For example, major retailers could offer an alternative brand or simply replace shelf space dedicated to Chinese-sourced products with different, domestic or non-Chinese supplier products.
答：這取決於農曆新年之前的庫存，包括在途庫存和其他供應來源。精益實踐和獨家採購自然會加劇問題和影響。選擇包括替代供應商，區域而不是全球採購以及替代能力。例如，大型零售商可以提供替代品牌，或者簡單地將專用於中國採購產品的貨架空間替換為不同的，國內或非中國供應商的產品。
Q: Could these disruptions have been mitigated earlier? How?
問：這些干擾能否早些緩解？以及如何操作？
A: Probably not, except with a more comprehensive and flexible supply strategy. The costs of multiple sources, substitute suppliers, safety stocks and clear visibility across the total supply chain are considerable. As a result, they may not have been deemed worth the speculative investment. Overall, it’s difficult to predict such black-swan events and their precise nature and impact, but many supply chains are lacking even fundamental risk assessments.
答：可能不會，除非有更全面，更靈活的供應策略。多種來源，替代供應商，安全庫存和整個供應鏈中清晰可見的成本相當可觀。結果，它們可能不被認為值得投機投資。總體而言，很難預測此類黑天鵝事件及其確切性質和影響，但許多供應鏈甚至都缺乏基本的風險評估。
Q: What are steps supply managers can take to ensure they are prepared in the event of a similar outbreak in the future?
問：如果將來發生類似的暴發，供應經理可以採取哪些步驟來確保他們做好了準備？
A: They include:
•Being aware of the supply chain beyond second-tier suppliers, which provides far more visibility of the potential impact of global disturbances to supply.
•Implementing a more robust risk assessment and mitigation to identify critical paths in supply chains
• Instituting policies that address potential crisis-event disruptions.
Also, in some sectors, having backup or second sources in multiple areas can offer an insurance policy against local or national disruptions. Holding such inventories in strategic locations — and perhaps collaborating with suppliers on inventory strategies — would provide short-term benefits.
答：它們包括：
•瞭解除二級供應商之外的供應鏈，這可以更清楚地瞭解全球動盪對供應的潛在影響。
•實施更強大的風險評估和緩解措施，以確定供應鏈中的關鍵路徑
•制定應對潛在危機事件中斷的政策。
同樣，在某些行業中，在多個區域擁有備用資源或第二資源可以提供針對本地或國家干擾的保險政策。在戰略位置保存此類庫存-並可能與供應商合作制定庫存策略-將提供短期利益。
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