How China’s epidemic could hurt the world economy 這次病毒會如何影響世界經濟
When shocks hit the global economy, Wall Street looks to history to see what will happen next. 當全球經濟受到衝擊時，華爾街回顧歷史，預測接下來發生的事情。
The outbreak in China of covid-19, a respiratory disease, invites a comparison to the last one, SARS. 呼吸疾病covid-19在中國的爆發，讓人聯想起上一次的SARS。
In that outbreak in 2003 China suffered a sharp hit to its growth, followed by a strong rebound. 在2003年那場疫情爆發中，中國經濟增長遭受了重創，隨後出現了強勁反彈。
Although covid-19 has now claimed more lives than SARS, investors remain optimistic that its economic effects will follow a similar path. 儘管covid-19現在比SARS致死率更高
，但投資者仍然樂觀地認為，此次疫情對經濟的影響將遵循類似的路徑。
On February 13th Hubei province, centre of the outbreak, announced 14,840 new con?rmed cases, a sharp rise. 2月13日，疫情中心湖北省宣佈新增確診病例14840例，這是一個激增的數字。
That was because it suddenly started including CT-scan diagnoses, not just specific tests for the virus. 這是因為現在開始了CT掃描診斷確診，而不僅僅是特定的病毒檢測。
Although the statistical fog is thick, indicators such as the fall in new cases outside Hubei and the total of suspected cases suggest that the rate of fresh infections may be trending lower. 儘管統計數據並不完全精準，但湖北以外地區新增病例和疑似病例總數的下降等指標表明，新增病例的比例可能正在下降。
Most economists have thus only nudged down their forecasts for full-year global growth. 因此，多數經濟學家只是略微調低了對全球全年增長的預測。
Chinese stocks and commodities, which track economic prospects, have clawed back ground after initial falls. 中國股市和大宗商品緊跟經濟預期，在最初的下跌後已回到基線。
Global stock markets are higher than they were in January, when the severity of the outbreak became clear. 全球股市情況好於1月份，當時疫情的嚴重程度已經很明顯。
We hope their optimism is justified. 我們希望他們的樂觀是有道理的。
Yet the comparison makes two assumptions: 然而，這種比較有兩個假設：
in supposing that containing the virus maps neatly onto a better economic outlook; 假設控制住病毒會帶來更好的經濟前景；
and in thinking that the world still works as it did when SARS was a threat. 認為世界仍然像受SARS影響時那樣運轉。
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