「關注」何亞非：美國大選年對中國的挑戰（中英雙語）

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作者何亞非系外交部前副部長、中國人民大學重陽金融研究院高級研究員、全球治理研究中心主任，本文刊於2月15日中美聚焦。

美國大選是美國政治非常重要的博弈場，也是觀察美國內外政策走向的風向標。2020年是特朗普第一任期最後一年，不僅美國總統要選舉，眾議院全體議員和參議院1/3成員都要選舉。美國國內早已風聲鶴唳、暗流湧動，特朗普彈劾案無疾而終，共和黨力挺特朗普連任，民主黨候選人一波接一波，出現不少新面孔。然而，兩黨候選人的政策主張都明顯偏激極端，雖然中國問題尚未成為大選焦點，但是大選對中美關係的影響和挑戰不容小覷。

何亞非

一、從美國大選規律看，經濟好壞依然是老百姓最關心的，這不僅涉及經濟增長、股市漲落，更在於民眾對收入不均、不平等、貧富差距擴大強烈不滿，希望大選結果能給百姓帶來實實在在的利益。

目前，世界經濟不容樂觀，週期性與非週期性因素疊加，貿易保護主義日盛，世界經濟不確定性增大，下行壓力持續加大。“震盪”很可能是2020年常態。

此前IMF對2019年世界GDP增速預測是3%，為2009年以來最低。WTO的新數據表明，2019年頭六個月全球貿易增長僅1%，為2012年來最低。2020年貿易緊張局勢有增無減，將出現負增長。專家預計2020年全球資產和股市泡沫破裂、經濟衰退概率較大，果真如此，美國經濟和股市很難獨善其身。中國遭受新冠肺炎疫情也給中國以及世界經濟帶來新變數。

美國自2008年金融危機以來一直採取貨幣寬鬆和低利率政策，邊際效應遞減消失。目前已有超過30家央行競相降息，世界經濟進入“零利率”、“負利率”時代，金融風險不亞於2008年前。

大選年美國對華將繼續推行“美國優先”、以鄰為壑的經濟政策，並把金融優勢“武器化”，用經濟金融制裁中國高科技企業，打壓中國科技發展。兩國雖然簽署“第一階段”貿易協定，能否順利執行，如何進行下階段談判，還是未定之數。但美國在經濟金融領域力圖對華“得分”，給選民以美國“獲利”的印象，是特朗普政府的既定政策，兩黨候選人都會予以支持。最近，美國商務部長甚至聲稱，中國新冠肺炎疫情將有利於美國製造業迴歸。這種極端利己主義的思維令人乍舌。

2020年中國金融開放邁開步伐，隨著中國經濟與世界經濟相互依賴加深，美國等資本大舉進入中國債市、股市、銀行、保險、資管業務，加上“一帶一路”等新型國際合作深入拓展，海外人民幣資金池持續擴大，國際資金流動、匯率變化對中國金融的影響增大，這將考驗中國金融業韌性和人民幣國際化決心。

二、大選年美國以意識形態劃線現象突出，“抹黑中國”無疑又是兩黨候選人爭取選票的得力手段。

美國國務卿蓬佩奧稱，中國共產黨是美國的核心“威脅”，副總統彭斯等其他高官也有類似評論，充分暴露了美國極端勢力對華濃厚的意識形態偏見，以及對中國製度優越性的“焦慮”和“懼怕”。中國發展及道路的成功再次證明美國“歷史終結論”的破產。無論是在香港搞“顏色革命”，還是接二連三通過涉港、涉疆、涉藏議案法案，美國這些赤裸裸干涉中國內政、侵犯中國主權的行徑都表明，它把中國鎖定為“主要戰略競爭對手”，帶有強烈的“文明衝突”色彩。

美國大選政治受“身份政治”、民粹主義影響嚴重，兩黨候選人面對貧富差距和不平等持續擴大束手無策，既不能客觀分析原因，又提不出好的解決辦法，民眾不滿和怨憤長期累積，表現為與精英的社會矛盾更加尖銳，美國資本主義制度性、系統性危機浮現。制度性危機進一步撕裂社會架構，激化國內矛盾，使國內政治特別是大選政治極端化。同時，危機外溢效應凸顯，政府竭力轉嫁危機，尋找“替罪羊”和假想敵，對外政策的極端強硬麵和軍事冒險性增加，中國作為美國“主要戰略競爭對手”很容易成為美國內各項矛盾的“替罪羊”，大選年尤其如此。

中國是近130個國家和地區的最大貿易伙伴，過去十幾年每年貢獻全球經濟增量30%以上，是全球經濟增長的重要引擎。中國需要世界，世界需要中國，已成為國際社會共識。而正是看到中國人民的制度自信不斷加強，更加緊密地團結在中國共產黨周圍，齊心協力建設現代化美好中國，中國綜合實力持續增強，美國才痛下決心進行對華高烈度戰略競爭和博弈，不惜使兩國陷入“修昔底德陷阱”。

三、大選年，美國在國際事務中的承受能力明顯下降，常常對國家之間的矛盾和全球性挑戰做出過激反應，從國際合作和國際組織“退群”與地緣政治衝突同步增強，致使大國關係更加緊張，全球治理更加無序。

近年來，國際戰略穩定已經遭到嚴重削弱，歐洲、亞太、中東安全形勢十分脆弱嚴峻，全球大國競爭突出。地區大國面臨“力量真空”和“秩序混亂”，競相爭奪地區主導權，地區熱點問題激化，局勢更加混亂。

美俄圍繞戰略“擠壓”與“反擠壓”，在烏克蘭、敘利亞、伊朗等問題上的矛盾加深。

鑑於目前中美關係高度複雜敏感，競爭性突出，大選之年在攸關中國國家安全、主權利益的臺海、南海等地區和問題上，美國對華戰略壓力加大，軍事挑釁將更頻繁、更直接，觸碰中國的底線。全球性挑戰和地區熱點問題激化也將使中國對外政策包括對美外交更趨複雜，處理難度加大。

美國2019年中退出《中導條約》，並即恢復陸基中程導彈研發試驗，宣佈在歐洲和亞太重新部署此類導彈。美國還堅持要求中國參與新的導彈協議談判，以期削弱對沖中國的部分非對稱優勢。與此同時，美國將退出《武器貿易條約》、美俄《開放天空條約》，高調聲稱永不批准《全面禁止核試驗條約》，核武現代化、小型化步伐加快，企圖逼迫中國進入大國核武競賽，遏制中國發展勢頭。

中東地區、美國與伊朗數次走邊緣，斬首伊朗軍事領導人劍走偏鋒，險些觸發軍事衝突，矛盾激化難以避免，下步走向將對地區局勢產生決定性影響。圍繞耶路撒冷地位，以及聯合國“以土地換和平”原則受到美國將使館遷往耶路撒冷等決定的衝擊，巴以衝突再趨激烈。中國是中東石油的主要進口國，美國力圖搞亂中東，逼升油價，造成石油市場動盪，中國首當其衝，國際政治經濟壓力增大。

大選年，美國兩黨候選人內顧傾向嚴重，民粹主義和保護主義盛行，將使現有國際秩序和全球治理體系更加“無序”，國際社會難以就應對氣候變化、能源安全、網絡安全、地緣政治衝突等全球性挑戰形成共識，世界更不安寧，發生“黑天鵝、灰犀牛”事件的概率增大。

全球化發展趨勢表明，全球生產鏈和世界消費市場的形成，商品生產和服務業的扁平化，技術革命的強大推動，都是全球化繼續發展的重要支撐，全球化不會逆轉。然而，全球化與反全球化博弈將持續升溫，“治理赤字”的擴大已經使以規則為基礎的治理體系四分五裂，重新制定國際規則，包括是否摒棄WTO，將成為大國競爭的焦點。

總之，美國大選年在美國政治上是特殊年份，兩國關係的不確定性增大，關係更難處理，需要我們保持戰略定力，從長計議，既堅持原則，又冷靜觀察，不急於對一些事情下結論。

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圖源：中新網

Challenges for China in U.S. Election Year

General elections are an important arena for wrangling in American politics, and a weather vane for observing the policy orientation of the U.S. This year, the last full year of Trump's first term, there will be not only a presidential election, but a congressional election in which the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be on the ballot.With the abortive impeachment effort, Republicans offer strong support for Trump's bid for re-election, even as there have been plenty of new faces among Democratic candidates.The policy proposals of both parties' candidates have been conspicuously radical. Though China has yet to become a focus in the upcoming campaign, the influences and challenges for China-U.S. relations should not be underestimated.

First, judging from past experience, what the general public is most concerned about remains the economy, which involves economic growth and the state of the stock market, but arguably has more to do with strong public dissatisfaction with income disparities, inequality and widening income gaps, not to mention the perennial hope for election outcomes that bring practical benefits.

The present state of the world economy allows for little optimism. Cyclical and anti-cyclical factors have joined forces to mar global growth prospects. Trade protectionism is rising, uncertainties are increasing and downward pressures press more heavily. Oscillation could become the new normal in 2020.

The International Monetary Fun has projected global GDP growth for 2020 at 3 percent, the lowest since 2009. According to the World Trade Organization, global trade in the first six months of last year grew 1 percent, the lowest since 2012. Trade tensions have only increased since the beginning of this year, and negative growth is inevitable. Experts predict that in 2020 the probability of bubbles in global assets, as well as stock markets going bust. So the probability of economic recession is high. Should that be the case, the U.S. economy and stock market cannot escape adversity. To make matters worse, the novel coronavirus outbreak is adding new variables to the Chinese and global economies.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. has maintained monetary easing and low-interest policies, and the marginal effects of such policies have steadily dwindled. More than 30 central banks have lowered interest rates, and the world economy has entered an era of zero, even negative, interest rates, brewing financial risk no less than before 2008.

In this general election year, the U.S. will continue to stick to the beggar-thy-neighbor “America first” policy with respect to China, and it will likely weaponize its financial advantages to suppress Chinese scientific and technological progress via economic and financial sanctions against Chinese high-tech firms. Though the two governments have signed a phase one trade agreement, what implementation looks like and how they would approach the sensitive next stage of negotiations remain unknown. Trying to score against China in the economic and financial sectors and leave voters the impression that the U.S. is “winning” is standard procedure for the Trump administration, and candidates of both parties will support it. The U.S. commerce secretary has just claimed the epidemic in China will facilitate the return of American manufacturers back home. Such extremely selfish thinking is astounding.

This year, China will make bolder strides in financial opening-up, with its economic interdependence with the rest of the world deepening. It will see a massive influx of capital from the U.S. and others in Chinese state bonds and stock markets, as well as in banking, insurance, asset management services and the extension of new international cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative. The overseas pool of funds in renminbi will continue to expand. The impacts of international capital flow and interest rates changes on Chinese finance will grow to test the Chinese financial sector as well as the determination for internationalizing the renminbi.

Second, given that ideological mudslinging is standard practice in U.S. general elections, China-bashing will undoubtedly be used as a tool by the candidates of both parties to woo voters.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called the Communist Party of China a core “threat” to his country. Vice President Mike Pence and other ranking officials have made similar remarks, fully revealing the deep-rooted ideological prejudices against China by radicals in the U.S. and their fear of the advantages of the Chinese system.China's progress and success on its chosen path has again demonstrated the collapse of the U.S. theory of the “end of history.” Naked U.S. attempts to interfere in Chinese domestic affairs and violate its sovereignty — such as the U.S.-directed color revolution in Hong Kong and successive legislative acts related to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet — all indicate the U.S. objective to label China as a “main strategic competitor” and carry heavy overtones of a clash of civilizations.

The politics of U.S. general elections is seriously vulnerable to identity politics and populism. Helpless in the face of wealth gaps and expanding inequality, neither party's candidates ever come up with objective analyses, explanations or solutions.The institutional crises of U.S. capitalism is on the horizon. It will further tear apart social structures, sharpen domestic contradictions and render domestic politics (particularly general election politics) even more radical. Meanwhile, the crises will have spillover effects, as the government tries everything possible to create crises, scapegoats and imagined enemies. Foreign policies will become extremely forceful, and military adventurism will continue its rise. As a “main strategic competitor” of the U.S., China may easily become an election-year scapegoat for various domestic troubles in the U.S.

China is the largest trading partner of nearly 130 countries and regions. It has contributed more than 30 percent of global annual growth for more than a decade and is an important engine of global economic growth. That China needs the world and the world needs China has become the international community's consensus. It is only after seeing the Chinese people's growing confidence in their system and national strength — uniting around the CPC to build a modern, beautiful China — that the U.S. has made up its mind to engage in high-intensity strategic competition and gaming, even though it may sink both countries in the so-called Thucydides trap.

Third, in a general election year, the U.S. presence in international affairs drops conspicuously. It often overreacts to state-to-state issues and global challenges, withdraws from international cooperation and organizations. At the same time, its geopolitical impulses strengthen, and tensions escalate in relations with major countries, creating disorder in global governance.

International strategic stability has been weakened seriously in recent years. Security conditions in Europe, the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are very fragile and harsh; major-power competition continues to be prominent worldwide; regional powers face power vacuums and disorder; competition for regional dominance remains complex and fierce; and regional hotspots have become even more dangerous. Conditions are becoming increasingly chaotic.

U.S.-Russia contradictions are deepening, as seen in their wrangling over Ukraine, Syria and Iran. The harsher sanctions against Iran involve Russian interests in Iran and the Middle East. The U.S. is also imposing extra-territorial sanctions on Nord Stream 2, the natural gas pipeline featuring cooperation between Europe and Russia, as well as the TurkStream natural gas pipeline project. Any European companies that participate in these projects will be subject to economic and financial sanctions, and their assets in the U.S. will be frozen.

Although U.S.-Russia wrangling is dramatically different in nature from what it was during the Cold War, the U.S. attempt to prevent Russia from coming back as a major power is equally tough. Given the ferocity of their competition, regional conflicts may be inevitable.Since China-U.S. relations today are highly complex and sensitive, as they involve prominent competition over Taiwan and the South China Sea, both of which concern Chinese national security and sovereignty. So U.S. strategic pressure on China will increase and military provocations will become more frequent and direct, touching China's bottom lines. Global challenges and flare-ups in regional hotspots will also complicate Chinese foreign policy, especially thos involving the U.S., and make them even more difficult to handle.

The U.S. withdrew from the INF treaty in mid-2019 and immediately restarted research and development, as well as tests of surface-based intermediate-range missiles. It declared it woule re-deploy such missiles in Asia and Europe, and has also insisted that China participate in negotiations for a new missile treaty in order to weaken and offset some of China's asymmetric advantages. Meanwhile, the U.S. will withdraw from the Arms Trade Treaty and the U.S.-Russia Outer Space Treaty, and it openly says it will never approve the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It is accelerating its pace of modernizing and miniaturizing nuclear weapons as it attempts to press China into a nuclear arms race and hence contain China's development.

In the Middle East, by killing a key Iranian military leader the U.S. nearly triggered a military conflict with the Islamic Republic. Bilateral contradictions will inevitably intensify. How that situation evolves will make a decisive impact on regional conditions. Israel-Palestine contradictions surrounding the status of Jerusalem and the “land for peace” proposal have suffered a heavy blow from the U.S. decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem and is intensifying once again.China is a major importer of Middle East oil, and as the U.S. strives to disturb the region and create ups and downs in the oil market, China will be exposed to greater economic and political pressures.

Since the political candidates of both parties in the U.S. elections are becoming more seriously inward-looking, and as populism and protectionism gain popularity, the current international order and global governance regime will become even more disordered, making it more difficult for the international community to reach consensus on such global challenges as climate change, energy security, cybersecurity and geopolitical conflicts. The world will be even less peaceful, and the probability of black swan and grey rhino incidents will rise dramatically.

The trend of globalization comes with the formation of global production chains. A worldwide consumer market, flattens the commodity production and service industries, and a strong push from the tech revolution all provide important support for continuing globalization. Globalization will not be reversed.However, the wrangling between globalists and anti-globalists will continue to escalate. Enlarging “governance deficits” have torn apart the rules-based governance regime, remaking international rules, especially those surrounding the role of the World Trade Organization, and will be a focus of major power competition. In this year of U.S. general elections, global governance will face more severe tests on such topics as climate change, WTO reform, preservation of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime and the handling of various regional hotspots. China and the U.S. will face some difficult choices over whether to cooperate or go their own way.

To sum up, the U.S. general election this year will be a special one in American politics. Bilateral ties will see greater uncertainty, and relations will be even more difficult to handle. All of this suggests China needs to maintain strategic calm, think from a long-term perspective, adhere to principles, observe developments with a cool mind and avoid jumping to rash conclusions about certain matters as they suddenly crop up.

中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資董事長裘國根先生向母校捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。

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