據Globaldata稱，到20世紀20年代中期，莫桑比克有望成為世界十大液化天然氣生產國之一，屆時將有超過3000萬噸的液化天然氣投產，與非洲領導人尼日利亞和阿爾及利亞的產能相當。
液化天然氣項目的原料氣將來自超深水Rovuma盆地，目前已發現超過125萬億ft3的可採天然氣資源。這包括1區75萬億ft3和4區50萬億ft3。1區和4區的參與者現在正在為陸上液化天然氣接收站的最終投資決策（FID）做準備。
Globaldata石油和天然氣分析師曹柴（音）表示：“莫桑比克陸上液化天然氣項目的開發收支平衡天然氣價格約為每千立方英尺4-5美元，與目前日本每千立方英尺9.24美元的現貨液化天然氣價格相比具有競爭力。這是因為與全球其他液化天然氣綜合項目相比，預計每百萬噸年的資本支出相對較低，與美洲的非綜合液化天然氣項目相比，上游成本較低。”
莫桑比克國內外的困境減緩了該國液化天然氣發展的進程。然而，到2019年為止，莫桑比克和Rovuma液化天然氣參與者的大部分活動都是獲得額外的天然氣銷售和購買協議等積極跡象。這些合同是項目進展到建設階段的一個關鍵部分，因為它們提供了未來收入的一些確定性，以支持將這些設施聯網所需的近400億美元的大規模資本支出。
Chai總結道：“莫桑比克液化天然氣業務的發展將使該國成為全球主要液化天然氣供應商。它還將為莫桑比克政府帶來直接收入，並通過初始項目和後續擴建的國內天然氣部分促進當地工業的增長。此外，液化天然氣大型項目的建設預計將持續十多年，為莫桑比克人提供了大量的就業和培訓機會。”
Mozambique expected to become a top 10 global LNG supplier
According to GlobalData, Mozambique is expected to become one of the world's top 10 largest LNG producers by the mid-2020s, when over 30 million tpy of LNG comes on stream, on a par with capacity in African leaders Nigeria and Algeria.
The feed gas for new LNG projects will come from the ultra-deepwater Rovuma Basin, where over 125 trillion ft3 of recoverable natural gas resources have been discovered to date. This consists of 75 trillion ft3 in block Area 1 and 50 trillion ft3 in block Area 4. Participants in Area 1 and 4 are now progressing towards final investment decisions (FID) for the onshore LNG terminals.
Cao Chai, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The development break-even gas price of around US$4-5 per thousand ft3 for the onshore LNG projects in Mozambique is competitive compared to current Japan spot LNG prices of US$9.24 per thousand ft3. This is due to the relatively low expected CAPEX per million tpy in comparison to other integrated LNG projects around the world, and the low upstream cost compared to non-integrated LNG projects in the Americas.”
Both external and internal Mozambique-specific challenges have slowed progression of LNG developments in the country. However, positive signs such as securing additional gas sales and purchase agreements have formed the majority of the activity from Mozambique and Rovuma LNG participants so far in 2019. These contracts are a key part of the projects progression towards the construction phase, as they provide some certainty about future revenues to underpin the massive capex of nearly US$40 billion required to bring these facilities online.
Chai concludes: “The advancement of LNG business in Mozambique will transform the country to a major global LNG supplier. It will also bring direct revenue to Mozambique government and promote the growth of local industries through a domestic gas component of the initial project and follow-on expansions. Furthermore, construction on the LNG megaprojects is expected to last for over a decade providing significant employment and training opportunities for Mozambicans.”
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