當地時間5月21日上午8:30，群智諮詢（Sigmaintell）總經理李亞琴女士出席了於美國洛杉磯舉辦的SID2018年國際顯示周，並在洛杉磯會議中心發表關於全球大尺寸及TV市場的前瞻演講。
以下為群智諮詢（Sigmaintell）總經理李亞琴女士演講精彩節選：
As you can see, the topic and key word of my presentation is REFRESHING, cause in my opinion it’s time for display industry to refresh our mind at this moment.
Just now speakers were talking about the fierce and crazy capacity expansion in China, that’s true. But let’s look at it in a big picture, it is the competition as history told us. It’s a competition and race against each other on the transformation and upgrade. But the key point is the pace, if the supply growth rate outpace demand’s too much, then oversupply occurred. I will talk about it later.
After I drew this picture, I felt that it just like a sea level, TV dominate, and occupy the top level of the sea, the proportion is over 80 percent, in peak season even over 85 percent. That’s too big. At the bottom of the sea, IT is comparably stable, PID proportion is very small, but under a high growing nowadays. When we talk about the sea, everybody are expecting like this, beautiful and peaceful. But frankly speaking, most of the time, it’s like this, violent and tempestuous.That’s what happening in TV market now.
Besides this, the most important is when we look into the demand area growth rate and capacity area growth rate, and there is a big gap. The demand’s is 5.7%, but capacity’s is 10.6%. So, why the area growth rate is so low given the volume go high? I think everybody wish to solve the problem, but before that, we have to find the reason.
We can find that everything stopped, in last 5 quarters, the average size didn’t show grow. What’s the problem? In my opinion it comes from demand side. with 55inch penetrating, 32inch always dominate. Because total is limited, with 55inch penetrating, 32inch stable, middle size shrink.
Everybody are talking about 65inch, but we are not so optimistic about it based on the economic and consumer market situation. Let’s see the light green bar, it’s 65inch penetration, it’s growing but very gradually and steadily, not so fast as 55inch.
How about the technology innovation, is there any driving force? Yep, we drew the display technology roadmap, in this year the key technologies are 8K, Quantum dot, and OLED TV. For 8K, all the panel makers are developing 8K LCD TV panels, including China makers, they aren’t lagging behind.
We think the efficient way is to control supply and pull supply and demand back to balance. I just said the LCD TV capacity will increase by 10.6% year on year in this year, but we didn’t take yield rate into consideration. If we take it, the supply growth rate will be 9.4%. Besides that, there are inventory accumulated from last year and pull in to this year. We take all the factors into our research model, it comes out that if panel makers decrease utilization by 8% annually, then the supply and demand ratio will return to nearly balance line. This is the first suggestion from Sigmaintell.
The second one is size migration. Both 55inch and 65inch, they are highly relying on China and North American market. If we are going to drive demand, we have to put almost all the resources and efforts on China and North America. Is rational to put all eggs in two baskets?
How about 32inch ? The interesting thing is 32inch regional market is quite diversified in different region. China, North America, developing Asia and even Latin America portion are equal. In the wake of it, if we push 32inch market share to 25%, that will push 43inch market scale increasing by 14.5Million pcs per year, and also drive total area demand increase by 2.4% with no change of volume. This is the second suggestion.
How about other applications, is there any other choice except for TV? The answer is yes. We have two examples here. First of all, it’s gaming. Gaming market is booming in China. there is a large quantity of Icafe stores in China, and users is very big, and monitor holding quantity is over 10million sets. The critical is larger size monitor are occupying Icafe market. Driven by the gaming industry booming and Icafe developing, gaming monitor is booming as well, the gaming monitor shipment growth rate quarter on quarter is very high. The most important is price premium, the gaming monitor value is over 1.6times compared with normal’s.
The last one is demand from Smart Retail. Nowadays displays requirement is increasing in the wake of smart retail. For example, in China, the internet Giant, Alibaba and JD, they are pushing the AI supermarkets in offlines. Electronic shelf label and information display are required massively. And ESL specs are upgrading as well, from very small to large size, over 20inch is under developing and will be introduced by TFT LCD maker lately. That will require large size capacity. Technology is also upgrading from E-paper to TFT LCD. And we forecast the total market scale of ESL will growth by 120% year on year in this year in global market.
群智諮詢（Sigmaintell）將聯合勵擴展覽於2018年6月28日在上海召開“全球新型顯示創新應用發展趨勢研討會”，和海內外產業人士共同探討創新顯示應用的發展機遇，期待你的加入！
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會議介紹
隨著高世代產能不斷釋放，面板價格持續下探，供需形勢不容樂觀，全球顯示面板產業需要找到衝出貿易摩擦和產能過剩的迷霧，找到共贏、良性發展方向。作為人類發展史上的第四次工業革命，物聯網的技術變革和模式深化將進一步促使終端設備分散化，新零售、智能汽車、工業智能等新興應用市場的成長動力尤為可期。
顯示器件已成為消費電子、通信、汽車、商用顯示、工控、醫療產品發展的核心部件。在移動智能終端硬件方面，隨著5G商業化的逐步臨近，移動終端將成為IoT、智能家居、安防的主要入口，消費者對於超大屏幕的需求日益顯現。同時為了兼顧移動終端的便攜性，柔性甚至可摺疊的顯示窗口器件的市場滲透率將迎來爆發式增長。
在主流應用存量市場增長遇到諸多挑戰時，依託最新的研究成果，群智諮詢（Sigmaintell）將聯合勵擴展覽召開“全球新型顯示創新應用發展趨勢研討會”，和海內外產業人士共同探討創新顯示應用的發展機遇。本次研討會將與“2018國際新型顯示技術展（DISPLAY CHINA)”和”世界移動通信大會 –上海”同期同地舉辦。
2018國際新型顯示技術展（DISPLAY CHINA) 由中國光學光電子行業協會液晶分會、上海勵擴展覽有限公司聯合主辦，代表著顯示與通信技術融合發展的趨勢。
歡迎大家關注和參與。
論壇還設有問答環節，就您所關注的議題，群智諮詢（Sigmaintell）資深分析師及特邀嘉賓將與您深入探討。歡迎您的蒞臨！
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會議時間及地點
時間：2018年6月28日 13:00-16:00
地點：上海新國際博覽中心
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主辦單位
北京群智營銷諮詢有限公司
上海勵擴展覽有限公司
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會議議程
如有意向贊助本次會議，請與我們聯繫。聯繫方式詳見文末。
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會議報名
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