当地时间5月21日上午8:30，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）总经理李亚琴女士出席了于美国洛杉矶举办的SID2018年国际显示周，并在洛杉矶会议中心发表关于全球大尺寸及TV市场的前瞻演讲。
以下为群智咨询（Sigmaintell）总经理李亚琴女士演讲精彩节选：
As you can see, the topic and key word of my presentation is REFRESHING, cause in my opinion it’s time for display industry to refresh our mind at this moment.
Just now speakers were talking about the fierce and crazy capacity expansion in China, that’s true. But let’s look at it in a big picture, it is the competition as history told us. It’s a competition and race against each other on the transformation and upgrade. But the key point is the pace, if the supply growth rate outpace demand’s too much, then oversupply occurred. I will talk about it later.
After I drew this picture, I felt that it just like a sea level, TV dominate, and occupy the top level of the sea, the proportion is over 80 percent, in peak season even over 85 percent. That’s too big. At the bottom of the sea, IT is comparably stable, PID proportion is very small, but under a high growing nowadays. When we talk about the sea, everybody are expecting like this, beautiful and peaceful. But frankly speaking, most of the time, it’s like this, violent and tempestuous.That’s what happening in TV market now.
Besides this, the most important is when we look into the demand area growth rate and capacity area growth rate, and there is a big gap. The demand’s is 5.7%, but capacity’s is 10.6%. So, why the area growth rate is so low given the volume go high? I think everybody wish to solve the problem, but before that, we have to find the reason.
We can find that everything stopped, in last 5 quarters, the average size didn’t show grow. What’s the problem? In my opinion it comes from demand side. with 55inch penetrating, 32inch always dominate. Because total is limited, with 55inch penetrating, 32inch stable, middle size shrink.
Everybody are talking about 65inch, but we are not so optimistic about it based on the economic and consumer market situation. Let’s see the light green bar, it’s 65inch penetration, it’s growing but very gradually and steadily, not so fast as 55inch.
How about the technology innovation, is there any driving force? Yep, we drew the display technology roadmap, in this year the key technologies are 8K, Quantum dot, and OLED TV. For 8K, all the panel makers are developing 8K LCD TV panels, including China makers, they aren’t lagging behind.
We think the efficient way is to control supply and pull supply and demand back to balance. I just said the LCD TV capacity will increase by 10.6% year on year in this year, but we didn’t take yield rate into consideration. If we take it, the supply growth rate will be 9.4%. Besides that, there are inventory accumulated from last year and pull in to this year. We take all the factors into our research model, it comes out that if panel makers decrease utilization by 8% annually, then the supply and demand ratio will return to nearly balance line. This is the first suggestion from Sigmaintell.
The second one is size migration. Both 55inch and 65inch, they are highly relying on China and North American market. If we are going to drive demand, we have to put almost all the resources and efforts on China and North America. Is rational to put all eggs in two baskets?
How about 32inch ? The interesting thing is 32inch regional market is quite diversified in different region. China, North America, developing Asia and even Latin America portion are equal. In the wake of it, if we push 32inch market share to 25%, that will push 43inch market scale increasing by 14.5Million pcs per year, and also drive total area demand increase by 2.4% with no change of volume. This is the second suggestion.
How about other applications, is there any other choice except for TV? The answer is yes. We have two examples here. First of all, it’s gaming. Gaming market is booming in China. there is a large quantity of Icafe stores in China, and users is very big, and monitor holding quantity is over 10million sets. The critical is larger size monitor are occupying Icafe market. Driven by the gaming industry booming and Icafe developing, gaming monitor is booming as well, the gaming monitor shipment growth rate quarter on quarter is very high. The most important is price premium, the gaming monitor value is over 1.6times compared with normal’s.
The last one is demand from Smart Retail. Nowadays displays requirement is increasing in the wake of smart retail. For example, in China, the internet Giant, Alibaba and JD, they are pushing the AI supermarkets in offlines. Electronic shelf label and information display are required massively. And ESL specs are upgrading as well, from very small to large size, over 20inch is under developing and will be introduced by TFT LCD maker lately. That will require large size capacity. Technology is also upgrading from E-paper to TFT LCD. And we forecast the total market scale of ESL will growth by 120% year on year in this year in global market.
群智咨询（Sigmaintell）将联合励扩展览于2018年6月28日在上海召开“全球新型显示创新应用发展趋势研讨会”，和海内外产业人士共同探讨创新显示应用的发展机遇，期待你的加入！
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会议介绍
随着高世代产能不断释放，面板价格持续下探，供需形势不容乐观，全球显示面板产业需要找到冲出贸易摩擦和产能过剩的迷雾，找到共赢、良性发展方向。作为人类发展史上的第四次工业革命，物联网的技术变革和模式深化将进一步促使终端设备分散化，新零售、智能汽车、工业智能等新兴应用市场的成长动力尤为可期。
显示器件已成为消费电子、通信、汽车、商用显示、工控、医疗产品发展的核心部件。在移动智能终端硬件方面，随着5G商业化的逐步临近，移动终端将成为IoT、智能家居、安防的主要入口，消费者对于超大屏幕的需求日益显现。同时为了兼顾移动终端的便携性，柔性甚至可折叠的显示窗口器件的市场渗透率将迎来爆发式增长。
在主流应用存量市场增长遇到诸多挑战时，依托最新的研究成果，群智咨询（Sigmaintell）将联合励扩展览召开“全球新型显示创新应用发展趋势研讨会”，和海内外产业人士共同探讨创新显示应用的发展机遇。本次研讨会将与“2018国际新型显示技术展（DISPLAY CHINA)”和”世界移动通信大会 –上海”同期同地举办。
2018国际新型显示技术展（DISPLAY CHINA) 由中国光学光电子行业协会液晶分会、上海励扩展览有限公司联合主办，代表着显示与通信技术融合发展的趋势。
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会议时间及地点
时间：2018年6月28日 13:00-16:00
地点：上海新国际博览中心
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主办单位
北京群智营销咨询有限公司
上海励扩展览有限公司
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会议议程
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会议报名
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会议咨询
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