即將邁入65歲的人們不會悄悄隱退

The World in 2020
2020年的世界
The decade of the yold

The year 2020 will mark the beginning of the decade of the yold, or the “young old”, as the Japanese call people aged between 65 and 75.（新概念三25課 It marked the end of the great tradition of ships with sails and the beginning of a new era.） The height of the baby boom, the period of high fertility in rich countries after the second world war, was 1955-60. The traditional retirement age is 65, and 2020-25 is 65 years later. One might therefore expect peak retirement for baby-boomers in the coming years—except that they are not retiring. By continuing to work, and staying socially engaged, the boomers, in their new guise as the young old, will change the world, as they have done several times before at different stages of their lives.

二〇二〇年將開啟“悠得人”（yold）的十年。“悠得人”即“年輕老人”（young old），是日本人對65至75歲人群的指稱。第二次世界大戰後富裕國家的生育率飆升，這一“嬰兒潮”的頂峰發生在1955至1960年。傳統退休年齡是65歲，而2020至2025年正好是那時的65年後。因此，人們可能會預期未來幾年出現嬰兒潮一代的退休高峰。而事實是，他們還不會退休。“嬰兒潮一代”會繼續工作和積極投身社會，以“年輕老人”的新身份去改變世界，就像過去他們在人生不同階段曾經多次做過的那樣。

The yold are more numerous, healthier and wealthier than previous generations of seniors. There will be 134m 65- to 74-year-olds in rich countries in 2020 (11% of the population), up from 99m (8%) in 2000 (see chart). That is the fastest rate of growth of any large age group. Health worsens with age, but the yold are resisting the decline better than most: of the 3.7 years of increased life expectancy in rich countries between 2000 and 2015, says the World Health Organisation, 3.2 years were enjoyed in good health. The yold are also better off: between 1989 and 2013, the median wealth of families headed by someone over 62 in America rose by 40% to $210,000, while the wealth of all other age groups declined.

與前幾代老年人相比，“悠得人”的數量更多，更健康，也更富有。2020年，富裕國家將有1.34億65至74歲人群（占人口的11%），高於2000年的9900萬（佔8%）（見圖表）。這是所有大型年齡段增長最快的一個。健康會隨年齡增長惡化，但“悠得人”卻比大多數以前的老人都更好地抵禦了這種衰退：世衛組織稱，2000至2015年間，富裕國家的預期壽命延長了3.7年，其中有3.2年是在良好的健康狀態下度過的。“悠得人”也更富足：1989至2013年間，戶主年齡在62歲以上的美國家庭的財富中位數增長了40%，達到21萬美元，而與此同時所有其他年齡段的財富都下降了。

The yold are busier, too. In 2016 just over a fifth of people aged 65-69 were in work in rich countries, a figure that is rising fast. Working is one of the factors that are helping people stay healthy longer. A German study found that people who remain at work after the normal retirement age manage to slow the cognitive decline associated with old age and have a cognitive capacity of someone a year and a half younger.

悠得人也更忙碌。2016年，富裕國家65至69歲人群中略多於五分之一的人在工作，這個數字正在迅速攀升。工作是幫助人們延長健康狀態的因素之一。德國一項研究發現，那些過了常規退休年齡還在工作的人延緩了自身與老齡有關的認知衰退，而擁有相當於比他們年輕一歲半的人的認知能力。

And miles to go before they sleep來日且多

In short, the yold are not just any group of old people. They are challenging the traditional expectations of the retired as people who wear slippers and look after the grandchildren. That will disrupt consumer, service and financial markets.

簡而言之，悠得人並非又一波尋常的老人。他們正在挑戰人們對退了休的人穿著拖鞋、照看孫兒這種慣有的預期。而這將顛覆消費、服務和金融市場。

The over-60s are one of the fastest-growing groups of customers of the airline business. The yold are vital to the tourism industry because they spend much more, when taking a foreign holiday, than younger adults. They are also changing education. Harvard has more students at its Division for Continuing Education (for mature and retired students) than it does at the university itself. And, because of the importance of pensions, the yold are transforming insurance companies from passive distributors of fixed annuities to financial-service providers for customers who want to manage their pension pots more actively.

六十歲以上人群是航空業增長最快的客戶群之一。悠得人對旅遊業至關重要，因為他們在國外度假時的消費額比年輕成人多得多。他們也在改變教育。哈佛大學繼續教育部（針對成熟和已退休的學生）的學生人數要比大學本身更多。而鑑於養老金的重要性，他們也在改變保險公司的角色：從固定年金的被動發放者，轉變為服務那些想要更積極地管理養老金的客戶的金融服務供應商。

The rise of the yold will be a boon to themselves, to economies and to societies. Many bosses and hr departments think productivity falls with age, but studies of truckmaking and insurance firms in Germany suggest older workers have, if anything, slightly above-average productivity—and that teams of workers from multiple generations are the most productive of all. Societies should be better off because public spending on health and pensions should be lower than expected, as people work longer and need less medical care.

悠得人的興起對於他們自身、經濟體和社會都是一種福音。許多老闆和人力資源部門認為生產率會隨年齡增長而下降，但是對德國卡車製造業和保險公司的研究表明，若要說有什麼區別的話，老年員工的生產率略高於平均水平；而由來自不同代際的員工組成的團隊生產率最高。社會應該會變得更富足，因為隨著人們工作時間延長，醫療需求減少，公共醫療和養老金支出應該都會低於預期。

But for all this to happen, three big things will have to change, under pressure from the yold themselves. The most important is public attitudes towards older people, and in particular the expectation that 60-somethings ought to be putting their feet up and quietly retiring into the background. Many companies discriminate against older workers by offering training only to younger ones, or by limiting part-time employment and job-sharing. The yold will demand that companies become more age-friendly and, in the process, help change attitudes towards ageing itself.

但要讓這一切真的發生，有三件大事必須改變——在悠得人自己施加的壓力下。最重要的是公眾對老年人的態度，尤其是認為60多歲的人就該停歇、悄然從社會大舞臺上隱退的預期。許多企業都在變相歧視年長的員工，比如只為年輕員工提供培訓，或者限制年長員工參與兼職和崗位分享。悠得人將要求公司變得更“高齡友善”，並在這一過程中幫助改變人們對於“變老”這件事本身的態度。

Government policies will have to change, too. The retirement age in many rich countries is still below the age to which many people want to work. The effective retirement age (the age at which people actually leave the workforce) is usually even lower. Public policy makes retirement a cliff edge, when it should be a ramp.

政府政策也必須改變。許多富裕國家的退休年齡仍低於很多人想繼續工作的年齡。實際退休年齡（人們實際離開勞動力隊伍的年齡）通常還要低。目前的公共政策使得退休呈現為一種斷崖似節點，而它本該是一個緩坡。

Third, higher numbers of healthy yold people will require drastic changes in health spending. Most diseases of ageing are best met with prevention and lifestyle changes. But only about 2-3% of most countries’ health-care spending goes on prevention. That will have to rise, because although the yold will constitute a bulge of comparative health and activity over the next decade, by 2030 they will hit 75—and enter a long period of decline for which few rich countries are ready.

第三，健康悠得人的增長將要求醫療支出做出巨大的改變。大多數與衰老相關的疾病的最佳應對方式是預防和轉變生活方式。但大多數國家的醫療支出只有約2%至3%用在了預防上。這個比例必須上升，因為儘管在未來十年中悠得人將構成一個相對健康

有活力的激增人群，但到2030年他們將邁入75歲，進入一個長期衰退期，而沒有幾個富裕國家為此做好了準備。

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關鍵字: 邁入 悄悄 美好，一直在身邊