陳文玲：著名經濟學家，中國國際經濟交流中心總經濟師、執行局副主任、學術委員會副主任，國務院研究室原司長，研究員，博士生導師
本文為國際市場新聞社（MNI）對陳文玲總經濟師專訪。（記者：林宛霞）
Next FewMonths Crucial For China-U.S. Trade Deal
未來幾個月是中美貿易協議達成的關鍵期
China and the U.S. could reach apreliminary trade deal as soon as this September, following the green light fora resumption in the trade talks, although not everyone is optimistic about thechances of a quick deal, government advisors told MNI.
MNI採訪中國國際經濟交流中心總經濟師陳文玲，她認為，在中美兩國貿易談判重啟之際，雙方有望最快在今年9月達成初步的貿易協議，儘管並非所有人都對近期達成協議持樂觀看法。
“Ifthe Trump administration stops flip-flopping this time, it is possible for bothsides to reach a preliminary agreement in three months,” said Chen Wenling,Chief Economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, ahigh-level think tank managed by the country’s powerful National Developmentand Reform Commission.
陳文玲接受採訪時表示，“如果這一次特朗普政府不再出爾反爾，中美雙方有可能在3個月內達成一個初步的協議”。
She said U.S. President Donald Trump needs“achievements” that can help him secure re-election next year and reaching adeal with China this year would help him win a second term by counteringdomestic complaints from soybean farmers and others. Defusing global tradetensions with a deal would also underpin U.S. economic growth and employment inthe run-up to the November 2020 vote.
美國將在2020年11月舉行下屆總統大選，她表示，總統特朗普急需“政績”助力其贏得明年的總統連任選舉。而今年與中國達成貿易協議，將有助於緩和國內豆農及社會各界對他的不滿情緒。此外，達成貿易協議還將緩解全球貿易摩擦的緊張態勢，同樣有助於美國穩定經濟增長和就業，對特朗普贏得連任創造好的外部環境。
On the other hand, Chen Fengying, formerdirector of world economy at the China Institutes of Contemporary InternationalRelations, which is affiliated to the Ministry of State Security, noted thatthe two countries still have to figure out the starting point before tradenegotiations can be brought back to life.
不過，中國現代國際關係研究院世界經濟研究所原所長陳鳳英認為，在談判重回軌道之前，兩國還要確定談判的起點。
“The U.S. wants to resume from the previousninth round of negotiations, while China wants to continue from the eleventhround,” Chen Fengying pointed out, without elaborating on the differences thatdrove the two governments apart in May. She believes that if the U.S. can agreewith China on the starting point for renewed talks, progress can be expected“very soon”.
陳鳳英說，“美國希望在前9輪談判的基礎上繼續進行，中國則希望從第11輪談判談起”。她並未解釋5月份時導致雙方談判破裂的具體分歧所在。她認為，如果美國能同意從中國建議的談判起點開始恢復磋商，那麼將 “很快”取得進展。
Both Chens said there is no timetable orroadmap and the situation could change during the negotiations, including thepossibility of relapsing back into stalemate and escalating into a deeperconflict.
兩位專家都表示，目前沒有時間表和路線圖，要視談判的情況而定，也不排除再度陷入僵局或衝突升級的可能。
--90% AGREED
--達成90%的共識
Chen Wenling, former bureau chief at theState Council Research Office, believes that the removal of all the tariffsimposed on Chinese imports by Washington since the trade dispute flared up is apriority issue for Beijing and preconditions for a deal. But she conceded thatthe Trump Administration’s willingness to we）aponisetariffs suggests it won’t give up on them lightly.
陳文玲認為，最應優先解決的問題是取消相互加徵的高額關稅。這是中國後續談判的首要任務，也是達成貿易協議的前提條件。但她認為，特朗普政府對關稅有特別的癖好，可能不會輕易放下關稅大棒。
At the same time, for Chen Wenling,Washington must rein in its demands for concessions from Beijing. “It is said that China promised to buy USD200billion of American goods (at the G20) in Argentina last year, and since thenthat number has grown to USD 300 billion, then USD 330 billion,” she said,adding that “the U.S. must make a concession on what they asked for.”
陳文玲還認為，如果要與中國達成協議，美國不可能再堅持原來的要價。“據說在去年阿根廷20國集團峰會兩國元首會晤達成的共識是，中國增加向美國購買2000億美元的商品，但此後這個數字被加到3000億，又加到3300億”，陳文玲說，“這個要價美國肯定會讓步，強買強賣難以達成共識。”
More pressing for the U.S., according toChen Wenling, is for the U.S. to restore greater market access for its agricultureproducts in China, in particular to help the many soybean farmers on the vergeof bankruptcy. China can restore imports of American soybean and cool globalsoybean prices, she said, as well as expanding energy and airplanes importsfrom the U.S.
陳文玲表示，美國現在最迫切的是加大中國對美國農產品的進口，以解國內豆農瀕臨破產的燃眉之急。恢復對大豆的進口，中國可以做到，這也有利於平抑國際大豆的價格。 同時，中國還可以增加購入美國的能源和飛機，中國市場有需求，美國有供給。
As for other U.S. requirements, includingintellectual property protection, ending forced technology transfer, and equaltreatment for state-owned and privately-owned companies, China is capable ofsatisfying Washington’s hopes, according to Chen Wenling, chiming with U.S.Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comment that the two sides are 90% agreed.She added, without elaborating, that the outstanding 10% lies in internetcontrol and data flow.
陳文玲稱，至於美國的其他訴求，如知識產權保護、禁止強制性技術轉讓、對國有企業和民營企業一視同仁等，中國都可以做到，這也符合中國未來的改革方向。她表示，正如日前美國財長努姆欽（Steve Mnuchin）的公開評論所言，90%的問題是可以達成共識的。她指出，10%的分歧之一，在於網絡空間的管制和數據的流動問題，但她並未展開說明。
She believes that the next phase in thetrade negotiations hinge on what the U.S. offers. In this context, Washington’s restoration of American suppliesto Huawei are seen not so much as a concession but a “self-correction”, drivenby the self-harm of cutting off supply chains and losing access to the Chinesemarket. Moreover, if the U.S. relaxed exports of high-tech products to China,such as in the areas of military equipment or bioengineering, the bilateraltrade deficit would shrink by USD100 to 200 billion, Chen Wenling estimated.
她認為，下一階段的貿易談判要看美國怎麼做。她強調，此次美國政府恢復對華為的芯片供應絕不能視為美方讓步，而是美國在切斷產業鏈、失去中國市場而感到疼痛後的一種“自我糾正”。此外，如果美國能放寬對中國出口高科技產品的限制，如芯片、軍工或生物工程領域，她估計貿易逆差可以減少1000到2000億美元。
