國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預測，馬來西亞實際國內生產總值（GDP）在明年可增長9%，為東盟五國最高。
除大馬外，國際貨幣基金組織對印尼、泰國、菲律賓和越南做出評估，它們的國內生產總值分別增長8.2%，6.1%，7.6%和7%，預計這些國家的綜合國內生產總值增長為7.8%。
國際貨幣基金也預測，今年大馬的國內生產總值出現萎縮，為-1.7%，而東盟5國的國內生產總值同樣萎縮，為-0.6%。
國際貨幣基金組織對大馬的2021年預測，高於國際信貸評級機構惠譽預測的5.8%增長。
國際貨幣基金組織今天發佈的報告顯示，全球增長預計可在2021年反彈至5.8％，遠高於趨勢，反映經濟活動從非常低迷水平恢復正常。
國際貨幣基金組織估計，全球今年的經濟成長為-3.0%，主要受到新冠肺炎疫情的衝擊。
“發達經濟體預計可增長4.5%，新興市場和發展中經濟體的增長將達到6.6%。”
相比之下，在金融危機後，2010年的全球球增長反彈至5.4%，2009年的全球增長只有-0.1%。
然而，國際貨幣基金組織表示，2021年能否取得反彈，主要取決於新冠肺炎疫情在2020年下半年獲得控制，這將使遏制措施逐步放鬆，並恢復消費者和投資者的信心。
“世界各國採取了重要經濟政策措施，著重於符合公共衛生保健的要求，但同時限制了經濟活動和金融體系的擴大。”
國際貨幣基金組織強調，全球經濟能夠恢復的預測是基於假設這些政策措施，可以有效地防止公司破產，減低失業，以及整個系統的財務獲得減壓。
儘管如此，到2021年底，發達市場、新興市場以及發展中經濟體的國內生產總值預測，仍低於疫情沒有發生前的水平。
“如同經濟衰退的規模一樣，經濟復甦的強度存在極大不確定性。”
國際貨幣基金組織也警告，經濟復甦也可能不會實現，甚至可能出現更糟糕結果。
“支撐經濟增長反彈的某些條件可能不會實現，而且可能出現更壞的結果，例如，2020年的收縮加劇，2021年經濟復甦緩慢，這都取決於疫情，以及相關經濟和金融。”
附（外媒報道原文）：
IMF: Malaysia's GDP to grow 9% in 2021, fastest among ASEAN-5 countries
KUALA LUMPUR (April 15): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9% next year, the fastest among the ASEAN-5 countries which are expected to see a combined GDP growth of 7.8%.
Besides Malaysia, ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam which are set to expand by 8.2%, 6.1%, 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
For 2020, the Washington-based organisation forecast Malaysia’s economy to contract 1.7%, as the ASEAN-5 GDP shrinks 0.6%.
The IMF’s latest 2021 projection for Malaysia is higher than Fitch Ratings’ growth forecast of 5.8%.
Global growth is expected to rebound to 5.8% in 2021, well above trend, reflecting the normalisation of economic activity from very low levels, said the IMF in a report released yesterday.
It projected -3% global growth for 2020, which is largely affected by COVID-19 pandemic.
“The advanced economy group is forecast to grow at 4.5%, while growth for the emerging market and developing economy group is forecast at 6.6%,” it said.
In comparison, in 2010 global growth after the global financial crisis rebounded to 5.4% from -0.1% in 2009.
However, the rebound in 2021 depends critically on the pandemic fading in the second half of 2020, allowing containment efforts to be gradually scaled back and restoring consumer and investor confidence, the IMF said.
Significant economic policy actions have already been taken across the world, focused on accommodating public health care requirements, while limiting the amplification to economic activity and the financial system.
The projected recovery assumes that these policy actions are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains.
Nonetheless, the level of GDP at the end of 2021 in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies is expected to remain below the pre-virus baseline.
As with the size of the downturn, there is extreme uncertainty around the strength of the recovery.
“Some aspects that underpin the rebound may not materialise, and worse global growth outcomes are possible -- for example, a deeper contraction in 2020 and a shallower recovery in 2021 -- depending on the pathway of the pandemic and the severity of the associated economic and financial consequences.”
