As More Electric Cars Arrive, What's The Future For Gas-Powered Engines? 電動車全線出擊, 燃油車未來何在？
February 16, 2019 7:01 AM ET
Most American cars run on gasoline. But analysts say that's poised to [1] change as electric vehicles take over the market, although they disagree on how soon. 大多數美產汽車使用汽油驅動。分析家們認為隨著電動車在市場上的普及，這一局面必將改變，儘管分析家們對於市場扭轉的時間快慢看法各異。
Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
Most American automobiles are powered by internal combustion engines [2]: Gas or diesel goes in, tiny explosions power pistons and turn a crankshaft [3], the car moves forward, and carbon dioxide goes out.
大多數美產汽車都是內燃機驅動: 灌入汽油或柴油，使之在機缸內燃燒產生輕微爆炸，推動活塞運動，繼而傳給曲軸，推動汽車前進並排放二氧化碳。
But a growing chorus of [4] environmental activists [5], business analysts and auto executives are predicting a sea change [6] as battery-powered electric vehicles grow in popularity [7].
隨著電池電動車的流行，越來越多的環保人士，商業分析專家及車企高管一致認為汽車業將徹底洗牌。
Going electric is not just an eco-friendly goal, an ambition that would help fight climate change. It's a business reality, according to industry analysts.
But if the general path ahead is widely agreed on, the speed of the change— and the role that combustion vehicles will play during the transition — is far from clear.
汽車電動化不僅僅是一個環保目標, 一種阻止全球氣候變化的宏偉願景，據業內人士分析，它更是一種商業現實。
即便人們普遍認可汽車電動化的前景，行業更替的速度及燃油車在行業更替中扮演何種角色仍未可知。
'You cannot stop it any more — it's coming' "它已無可阻擋，勢在必行"
"Electrification, you cannot stop it anymore — it's coming," says Elmer Kades, a managing director with the consulting firm AlixPartners. "We have fantastic growth rates, between 50 and 60 percent on a global level."
Electric vehicles are currently a tiny fraction of the car market, which is dominated by internal combustion engines. But many more electric car models will hit showrooms in the next few years, and several factors have analysts convinced that is part of a major transition in the industry.
"汽車電動化已經無可阻擋了，它勢在必行。" 諮詢公司 AlixPartner 執行總監埃爾莫 卡迪斯說， "電動車增長率非常可觀，在全球範圍內增幅達 50-60%"
目前汽車市場仍由燃油車主導，電動車佔有份額十分微小，不過綜合多方因素分析，專家們相信未來幾年會有更多電動車湧現，那將是行業劇變的一部分。
Non-gas car models likely to nearly triple by 2025 非燃油車有望在 2025 年翻三番
Cars using alternative powertrains, such as electric power, fuel cells and plug-in hybrids, are expected to see substantial growth over the next decade. Only two models were available in 1997, compared with 98 in 2019. Bars in the shaded area are projected totals
採用新能源動力的汽車如純電動汽車，燃料電池電動汽車及混合動力汽車有望在未來十年持續增長。
Government policies — particularly in Europe and China — are giving a boost to [8] electric vehicles, as regulators consider not only the devastating impacts of climate change but also the value of improved air quality in cities.
政府部門，尤其是歐洲及中國政府當局，考慮到全球氣候變化所帶來的惡劣影響，以及改善空氣質量帶來的美好前景，制定了一系列扶持政策，極大地推進了電動交通工具的發展。
Auto companies around the world are gearing up [9] for what will be a massive [10] financial commitment [11]. Carmakers plan to invest more than $90 billion in the shift to electric vehicles over the next decade or so, according to a Reuters analysis.
即便會產生一筆巨大的財政負擔，全球汽車廠商都為汽車電動化卯足馬力。據路透社報道，在接下來十來年的汽車電動化進程中，汽車製造商投資預計將超過 9 百億美金。
Electric motors are simpler, making them easier to maintain and meaning they should last longer. Keeping them charged is cheaper than buying gas, an advantage that will become even more significant if gas prices rise.
電力發動機相較而言更簡單，意味著更易保養，更耐用。充電也比加油成本低，在油價上升的時候，這個優點就尤其重要。
An electric motor is seen at the YASA factory in Oxford, England, in February 2018. Electric motors are much simpler than internal combustion engines, with fewer moving parts.
2018 年 2 月，英格蘭，牛津郡，YASA 工廠內的電動機。電力發動機比內燃機簡單很多，少了很多傳動部件。
Chris J. Ratcliffe/Getty Images
Plus, "they are fun to drive," says Tom Murphy, a managing editor at Wards Auto, which ranks the world's best engines. "They're enjoyable, they're quiet ... and there's loads of torque" — which means instant acceleration, he says.
此外，"它們開起來很好玩"，專業測評全球最好發動機的汽車雜誌 Wards Auto 主編湯姆墨菲說，"它們開起來很舒服，安靜…而且扭矩很足-意味著可以瞬時加速"
On the other hand, gas-powered cars are cheaper to buy than electric vehicles. It's also quicker to fill up at the pump than it is to recharge, and the country is packed with gas stations, while charging station infrastructure is still in its infancy.
不過話說回來，燃油車比電動車購價低，而且加油也比充電快；全國各地都有加油站，而充電樁的建設才剛剛起步。
But experts predict batteries will get cheaper, charging will get quicker, and chargers will become more readily available. At some point, industry watchers say, the balance will shift.
不過專家們相信電池造價會越來越低，充電速度大為提升，充電樁也會變得隨處可見。行業觀察者們預言等時機成熟，行業天平自會傾斜。
"Probably in the mid-2020s time frame, it becomes comparable or cheaper to actually buy and operate an EV than an internal combustion vehicle,"says Sam Abuelsamid, an auto analyst with Navigant.
來自 Navigant 的汽車分析師山姆 阿布爾薩米德說，極可能在二零二幾年的樣子，購買和使用電動車的成本會和燃油車持平或者比之更低。
Felipe Munoz, a global analyst at JATO, predicts electric vehicles will outsell conventional ones by 2030.
另一位來自 JATO 的全球分析師菲利普 莫諾茨預測在 2030 電動車的銷售量會超過傳統汽車。
Other analysts say this change could be slower — but most agree it is coming.
其他分析師說這個取代進程會比預想中慢，不過大多數認同這種趨勢判斷。
Even people who love the internal combustion engine see the writing on the wall [12]. John Woods owns a 1972 Porsche 914. On a recent Sunday,he joined other car enthusiasts at a parking lot in Alexandria, Va., to rev his engine and grin at the sound of it.
即便是內燃機汽車愛好者也知大勢不妙。約翰伍茲擁有一輛產於 1972 年的保時捷 914，在不久前的一個星期天，他和其他汽車發燒友相聚在弗吉尼亞州亞歷山大港的一處停車場試駕，對發動機的聲音只能一笑置之。
The internal combustion engine is "the beginning of automotive engineering," Woods says. "But the electric car will be the future."
伍茲說，"內燃機是整個汽車工業的開端，但電動車才是未來"
'Combustion engines really aren't going anywhere for quite some time' 燃油機的地位在相當一段時間內將無可撼動
The rise of electric vehicles, however, doesn't automatically mean the end of the reign of the gas-powered car. Putting more battery-powered cars into circulation is only half of the equation. The next question is, what happens to all the combustion vehicles already on the road?
然而, 電動車的興起並非意味著燃油機汽車統治的終結。投放更多電動車到交通系統只解到這道題的一半，餘下的問題是，已經在運行的燃油車該如何處置？
One possibility is that they might get replaced quite quickly with electric vehicles.
可能性之一就是加快電動車替換燃油車的進程。
That's what environmental activists want, for the sake of curbing climate change. For instance, the Green New Deal proposed by Democrats calls for phasing out carbon emitting vehicles within a decade — which would require not only very fast production of electric vehicles but also a sudden withdrawal of combustion vehicles from roads.
這正是環保主義者所期待的，因為它能有效遏制全球氣候變化。比方說民主黨所提議的 Green New Deal，該提案倡議在十年之內逐步淘汰排放二氧化碳的燃油車。這不僅需要加大電動車生產力度，還需要及時淘汰在運行的燃油車。
That's an ambitious target. But some version of that fast timeline could be triggered by very high gas prices or by bans or restrictions on internal combustion vehicles (like some cities have discussed, at least hypothetically).
這是一個宏偉目標，不過過高的油價，或是對燃油車的禁令及限制令（如有些城市所預想的那樣）可加快這一進程。
It could also be motivated by consumer choices, argues Dan Neil, automotive columnist at The Wall Street Journal.
《華爾街見聞》的汽車專欄作家丹奈爾表示"消費者們的選擇也可以促進這一進程"
Electric vehicles "are such better machines than the machines they're replacing," he says, that consumers might choose to retire their gas guzzlers [13] long before the end of the vehicles' useful lives.
"電動車比它即將取代的燃油車要好太多"他說 "或許消費者會選擇在他們的汽車遠沒到報廢的時候就淘汰這些油老虎。"
"Just like plasma TVs," he says. "A lot of plasma TVs didn't see the useful end of their lives before they were replaced by much cheaper, but also much better, LCD screens."
"就像等離子電視一樣，其實很多等離子電視機被物美價廉的 LCD 電視替換的時候狀況都還良好"
Others are far more skeptical of an accelerated timeline and anticipate the two types of vehicle will coexist on the road for a long time.
其他人對電代汽的進程加速更多地持懷疑態度，他們認為很長一段時間內電動車和燃油車將並存。
Employees work at the main assembly line of V-6 engines at a Nissan
Motor plant in Iwaki, Japan, in 2016.
2016 年，日本 Iwaki, 工人在尼桑生產車間 V-6 發動機主要組裝線上工作
Toru Yamanaka/Getty Images
"The average age of a vehicle on the road today is almost 12 years old in the United States," says Abuelsamid, the Navigant analyst. "Even if ... 100 percent of vehicles sold were electric starting today, it would still take 20 to 25 years to replace the entire vehicle fleet with electric vehicles."
"在美國，汽車的平均使用壽命約為 12 年" Navigant 分析師阿爾布薩米德說 "即便假如從今天開始算起，所有賣出的車都是電動車，仍然需要 20 到 25 年才能把所有車都換成電動的。"
Bill Visnic, editorial director at the Society of Automotive Engineers, is more blunt[14]. "Combustion engines really aren't going anywhere for quite some time," he says.
汽車工程師協會的總編比爾維斯尼克則更是直言不諱:"燃油機的地位在相當一段時間內仍無撼動"
Increasingly eco-friendly combustion vehicles 更加環保的燃油車
Mary Nichols, who heads the California Air Resources Board [15], agrees that internal combustion engines aren't going away anytime soon. 瑪麗尼古爾斯是加州空氣資源委員會主席，她認同燃油車不會很快退出市場的說法。
"We can't turn them all into planters or sculptures [16]," she says. " So I think we're going to have to provide for them to continue to exist."
"我們不可能把所有退休的燃油車都做成花臺或者雕塑吧？"她說，"我想我們還是得讓燃油車繼續存在"
But Nichols emphasizes that modern cars are cleaner than they used to be.
尼古爾斯還特意提到現代車比以前的車要清潔多了。
"I started working in this area of air pollution control back in 1971," she says. "And in that time, the air emissions from internal combustion engines have been slashed [17] by over 90 percent — twice."
她說"我在 1971 年就參與到空氣汙染控制的工作當中了。那個時候燃油車的尾氣排放已經有過兩次猛削，每次削減力度超 90%"
That's important for air quality, a major concern in the world's cities. Meanwhile, improved fuel efficiency has reduced the amount each car contributes to climate change.
這對於困擾全球諸多城市的空氣質量問題來說至關重要。此外，改善的燃油效率也使得每臺車（排放減少），帶給全球氣候變化的影響被降低。
"It highlights the importance of making sure ... that we continue to have standards for conventional vehicles that push us towards more efficient, cleaner combustion engines," says David Reichmuth, a senior engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists [18]. " In the next five years, we're going to sell an awful lot of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, and not having those standards in place will lock in a large amount of emissions."
"這也突出了我們繼續為傳統燃油車制定相關指標的重要性，這些標準推動我們研發更佳的節能減排型燃油發動機" 來自憂思科學家聯盟的高級工程師大衛雷茨茅斯說，"接下來五年，會有很多汽油或柴油車走向市場，如果沒有相關標準監管的話會導致大量的廢棄排放"
And there's one last wrinkle when considering the future of the combustion engine: The rise of the plug-in hybrid, which can run exclusively off battery power or use a combustion engine.
說到燃油機的未來還有一點不得不提：插電式混合動力車，它既可以純電力驅動也可以純燃油驅動。
"It's not like the internal combustion engine is just going to go away in the near future," says Murphy of Wards. "It's a little more nuanced [19] than that."
Wards 雜誌的墨菲說內燃機在不久的將來就要出局，插電式混合動力車的前景卻有所不同
The transformation of the auto industry is real, experts say — and happening much faster than skeptics would have predicted just a few years ago.
專家們說汽車行業的轉型切切實實地來了，而且比前幾年持懷疑態度的人所能想象的要快很多。
But the turnover of the fleet will take time, and the phaseout of combustion vehicles likely won't be fast enough to satisfy environmental advocates concerned about global warming.
但是鉅艦轉航並非一蹴而就，燃油機的出局速度也未必能讓關注全球變暖的環保先鋒們滿意。
"We're moving in the right direction with electric cars," Reichmuth says. "But the question is: How fast do we get there? And, you know, if you look at what we're already seeing with climate change, we're going to have to move faster."
"選擇電動車，我們的方向是對的" 瑞茨茅斯說, "問題是，我們得多久才能實現全電動化呢？如果你多瞭解下全球氣候變化的話，你就知道這事兒刻不容緩"
[1] poised to (do something) Braced, prepared, or ready to do something in the immediate future. 準備好做某事 We were all poised to work long hours to finish the project in time for the holidays. The cobra reared its head up with its hood flared out, so I knew it was poised to strike.
[2] internal combustion engine N-COUNT An internal combustion engine is an engine that creates its energy by burning fuel inside itself. 內燃機 e.g. Most cars have internal combustion engines.
[3] crankshaft /ˈkræŋkʃɑːft/ (crankshafts) N-COUNT A crankshaft is the main shaft of an internal combustion engine. 曲軸
[4] a growing chorus of 越來越多的...，日益加劇的... Eg.: A growing chorus of critics is warning that unless the government changes course, the nation's one-child policy will drive the Asian powerhouse into a demographic dead end. 一項日益加劇的批評警告，除非政府改變這一進程，否則國家的獨生子女政策 將使這個最具活力的亞洲經濟體變成一個人口統計學上的死結。
[5] environmental activists N-COUNT: People who advocate for or work toward protecting the natural environment from destruction or pollution. 環保活動人士
[6] sea change N-COUNT A sea change in someone's attitudes or behavior is a complete change. (在態度、行為上的) 徹底改變 or turning change or shift in industry 或是某一行業的劇變，洗牌
[7] grow in popularity Phrase: 越來越受歡迎，越來越流行
[8] to give a boost to Vt. 促進...，推動...的發展
[9] gear up (gearing, geared, gears) PHRASAL VERB If someone is gearing up for a particular activity, they are preparing to do it. If they are geared up to do a particular activity, they are prepared to do it. 為…準備, 卯足馬力準備做...
[10] massive /ˈmæ sɪv/ ADJ Something that is massive is very large in size, quantity, or extent. (尺寸、數量、規模) 非常大的 [強調]
[11] financial commitment 財政支援, 財政承擔 e.g. To the general public, the decision on home purchase is a very important one to make in one's lifetime and involves long-term financial commitment of the whole family. 對於一般市民而言，置業可能是一生中最重大的經濟決定，也是很長遠的家庭財政承擔
[12] the writing on the wall The writing/Finger on the Wall 不詳之兆；大禍臨頭 這個成語的字面意思是"牆上的文字（或手指）"，而實際含義是 a sign or warning of impending disaster（迫在眉睫的凶兆）； a sign that sth bad will happen; a feeling that one's number is up；等等。其語言外殼與內涵出自《聖經》. 《舊約但以理書》(Daniel)第 5 章記述：有一次古巴比倫(Babylonian)的國王伯沙撒(Belshazar)正在宮殿裡設宴縱飲時，突然，不知從哪裡出現了一個神秘的手指，當者國王的面，在王宮與燈臺相對的粉牆上寫西了
四個奇怪的單詞：MENE，MENE，TEKEL，UPHARSING。國王張皇失措，驚恐萬分，誰也不懂牆上所寫的字是什麼意思。後來叫來了被虜的猶太預言家但以理，才明白了這幾個字的意思就是大難臨頭。 他說："MENE 就是上帝已經數算你國的年日到此為完畢；TEKEL 就是你被稱在天平裡顯出你的虧欠；UPHARSING 就是你的國分裂，歸與瑪代人和波斯人。" 果然，當夜伯沙撒被殺，又 62 歲的瑪代人大利烏取而代之。 因此，"牆上的文字（或手指）"就表示身死國亡的凶兆。英語中這個成語有幾種表達方式：the writing/handwriting on the wall 或 a finger on the wall,通常與 be，like 等系動詞連用；有時寫成see/read the writing on the wall 的句型，表示提出警告,such as : Don't you see the writing on the wall, 有時候也可省略 on the wall，只說 Don't you see the writing？意思也是一樣的。 e.g. This inexplicable incident seemed, like the Babylonian finger on the wall, to be spelling out the letter of my judgement... In this house of his there was writing on every wall. His business-like temperament protested against a mysterious warning that she was not made for him. John's employer had less and less work for him; John could read the writing on the wall.
[13] gas guzzler (also gas-guzzler) (gas guzzlers) N-COUNT If you say that a car is a gas guzzler you mean that it uses a lot of fuel and is not cheap to run. (指車)油老虎 [美國英語] [非正式]
[14] blunt /blʌnt/ (blunting, blunted, blunter, blunts, bluntest) ADJ If you are blunt, you say exactly what you think without trying to be polite. 直言不諱的
[15] California Air Resources Board 加州空氣資源委員會 CARB 作為全球著名的區域政府組織，以制定最苛刻的環保標準聞名。CARB 自 2014 年開始，每年對車輛產品進行認證更新，如果無法通過，則不能上市銷售。
[16] turning into planters and sculptures 對廢舊汽車進行再利用，將之改造成花盆，花臺或者雕塑及手工藝品 planter /ˈplɑːntə/ (planters) N-COUNT Planters are people who own or manage plantations. 種植園主; 種植園經營者 N-COUNT A planter is a container for plants that people keep in their homes. 花盆
[17] slash /slæ ʃ/ (slashing, slashed, slashes) 1. V-T If you slash something, you make a long, deep cut in it. 砍; 劈 He came within two minutes of bleeding to death after slashing his wrists. 他割腕後不到兩分鐘就失血而死。 2. N-COUNT Slash is also a noun. 劈砍; 砍擊 Make deep slashes in the meat and push in the spice paste. 把肉剁透，然後擠入調料醬。 3. V-I If you slash at a person or thing, you quickly hit at them with something such as a knife. 揮舞 (刀等) 擊打 He slashed at her, aiming carefully. 他瞄得準準的，朝她揮砍過去。 4. V-T To slash something such as costs or jobs means to reduce them by a large amount. 大幅度削減 [journalism] Car makers could be forced to slash prices. 汽車製造商可能會被迫大幅度降價。
[18] the Union of Concerned Scientists 憂思科學家聯盟 (The Union of Concerned Scientists, UCS, http://www.ucsusa.org/) 成立於 1969 年， 該組織最初由美國麻省理工學院的教授們倡議組建，主要目的是提出一些報告和忠告， 避免科學技術遭到濫用。該組織經常對美國政府的政策提出批評，並曝光一些鮮為人知的內幕。
[19] nuance /njuːˈɑːns/ (nuances) N-VAR A nuance is a small difference in sound, feeling, appearance, or meaning. (聲音、感覺、外貌或意義等方面的) 細微差別
NPR CAMILA DOMONOSKE 報道. E.T 編譯 2019年 2月 18日星期一
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