瞭解最新的國內國際時事熱點；學習地道的時政英語表達，請關注Global Times 每日的雙語社評。
Taiwan can’t gamble on cross-Straits crisis
Taiwan authorities claimed that People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets crossed the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits at Sunday noon. Will the Straits situation reach a new stage? Possibly, but not necessarily.
臺灣軍方稱解放軍戰機星期天中午時分飛越了所謂“海峽中線”，臺海局勢會翻開新的一頁嗎？有可能，但也不一定。
First, the "middle line" is fictitious and psychological comfort to the Taiwan authorities. The Chinese mainland has never recognized it. Moreover, the two sides across the Straits probably have different definitions of the "middle line." Hence, even if PLA fighter jets did cross it, how the situation develops depends on Taiwan and US reactions.
首先，“海峽中線”是一條假想的心理線，大陸從未承認過它，而且雙方對這條中線的理解和認識也未必一致。所以即使臺方所通報的軍情是真的，它也可大可小，全看美臺雙方下一步作何反應。
Washington has gone too far by sending warships to sail through the Straits thrice this year. Many people tended to think the PLA's move was a response to recent provocations by Taiwan and the US. If they restrain themselves, the crossing of PLA fighter jets over the "middle line" will be nothing serious. However, if the two continue to make provocative moves, the cross-Straits situation is bound to become more uncertain.
美臺勾結在加劇，美國軍艦今年以來三過臺灣海峽，這很過分。很多人都傾向於認為，軍機強勢過中線，這是大陸對美臺近期挑釁的回應。如果美臺從此收斂些，解放軍戰機偶過“海峽中線”就是件小事。但如果美臺不思收斂，反將解放軍的這一行動視為挑釁，且進一步示強，那麼臺海緊張勢必加碼升級，走向嚴重的不確定性。
The cross-Straits situation is complicated as three sides are involved, while the main players of the game are two of them - Beijing and Washington.
臺海局勢的一個微妙之處在於，這是個三方格局，中國大陸、美國還有臺灣，但它的主要博弈方又是北京和華盛頓這兩方。
Taiwan's real interest is long-term peace, which is always marginalized by the politics in the island. Some politicians in Taiwan prefer to put forward extreme policies to rival the mainland. The preconditions for such measures are peace where wars will not really break out. Taiwan authorities make people believe they fear nothing, but in fact, the island cannot withstand the cross-Straits situation going toward deep turmoil.
臺灣的真正利益是爭取長久和平，但臺灣的選舉政治常常會被極端勢力挾制，將這一利益擠到邊緣位置，而把與大陸對抗的極端路線推到前臺。這種路線的前提是和平的堅固可靠，因為戰爭的危險不會真的到來，所以臺灣當局可以擺弄什麼都不怕的姿態。但其實臺當局是怕的，因為整個臺灣社會對臺海地區走向深度動盪的承受力很低。
China and the US are big countries who can afford military frictions in certain areas. But for the island, it won't be that simple.
中美是兩個大國，對於局部出現軍事不友好的情況並不很在乎。但臺灣就不一樣了。
If the fighter jets of the PLA and the US Air Force have an encounter in the skies over Taiwan, it will have a strong psychological impact on Taiwan people. The mainland could also retaliate against US moves in the region.
假如美國軍機在臺海上空出現，解放軍的戰機升空，雙方空軍在臺海上空大搞假格鬥表演，最受不了的將是臺灣人的心臟。大陸屆時還勢必報復美方在臺海軍事活動的升級。
Recently, Chinese mainland scholars have been engaged in a broader discussion on how to cope with the growing provocations from the island and the US. More and more people suggest PLA fighter jets fly over the island.
近來大陸學界在越來越開放地討論如何對付美臺挑釁升級，解放軍派戰機飛越臺灣島的選項被更多的人提及。
As cross-Straits military tensions intensify, the probability of occasional military frictions or limited military conflicts will rise. It's possible that the fighter jet will be shot down in a military clash, or PLA conducts targeted elimination at certain military base on the island that could threaten the mainland.
隨著臺海軍事緊張加劇，發生偶發性軍事摩擦或者有限軍事衝突的可能性將會增加。比如雙方戰機交火併有飛機被擊落，定點清除對大陸構成威脅的某個臺軍基地，這些可能性在未來都無法完全排除。
Does this mean China is about to resolve the Taiwan question using military means? Not necessarily. A peaceful reunification is the mainland's basic policy toward the island. But it doesn't mean giving up using military forces.
這是要武力解決臺灣問題嗎？並非。和平統一是大陸的基本對臺政策，但和平統一不意味著軍事上一點都不能動。
We don't need a real war to resolve the Taiwan question. The mainland can adopt various measures to make Taiwan ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) turn into a Lebanon situation, which "Taiwan independence" forces cannot afford.
另外，臺海問題不需要通過一場真正的戰爭來解決，但大陸可以有各種手段將民進黨統治的臺灣“黎巴嫩化”，給予“臺獨”勢力無法承受的打擊。
If Washington sends wrong signals that lead to continuously escalating tensions in the region, it would be a nightmare for Taiwan authorities. If the DPP puts the island in the middle of a high-level military storm, can it sustain the rule?
如果美國發出錯誤信號，導致臺海軍事緊張不斷升級，我們相信它終將成為臺灣當局的一場噩夢。如果民進黨將臺灣推向高級別軍事對抗的電閃雷鳴中，屆時還能在臺上坐得住嗎？
Once the cross-Straits crisis gets out of control, the Chinese mainland is capable of fighting to the end, while both the island and the US have something to worry about. The DPP fears that it would lose its power. Washington doesn't want to be involved in another major war and is also concerned that Taiwan people will no longer accept its support.
所以說，一旦臺海危機失控，大陸方面有足夠的意志和資本拼到底，而美臺雙方都有各自的顧忌。民進黨怕政權不保，華盛頓則既怕真的捲入一場大戰，又怕臺灣民意厭倦動盪而不再接受美國的支持。
Taiwan and the US must restrain themselves as the cross-Straits crisis has already turned into a gamble they cannot afford.
我們最後想說的是，美臺必須剋制，因為臺海危機已經是它們玩不起的一場賭博。
本文系環球網、環球時報英文網站社評。中文部分有刪減。
閱讀更多 環球時報英文版 的文章
