张斌 邹静娴

改革开放四十年，中国为什么发展得更快？

宋泓

改革开放四十年来中国国际收支的演变历程、发展趋势与政策涵义

张明

美元体系的金融逻辑与权力——中美贸易争端的货币金融背景及其思考

李晓

全球性经济危机与全球货币体系调整：经验证据与理论框架

张广斌 黄海洲 张绍宗

美国的全球化陷阱、贸易争端诉求与中国的战略应对

潘英丽 周兆平

美国贸易政策制定中的观念、偏好与策略选择

夏敏

探寻通往人类命运共同体的全球化之路——全球治理的政治经济学思考

周宇

世界经济或将进入多趋势并存的时代：表征、成因与未来——兼论特朗普的“三零贸易秩序”

王跃生

拉美民众主义的悖论：根源与后果

袁东振

智库观察

中国经济结构转型的进展与差距 张斌 邹静娴

通过与发达经济体结构转型轨迹进行比对，本文从产业和支出两个维度考察了中国经济结构转型取得的进展与存在的不足。中国经济在2010－2012年间迈过了工业化高峰期，此后逐步由制造业转向服务业。工业化高峰期后人力资本密集型服务业迎来了高速增长；投入、生产、产品多维度证据显示制造业整体升级步伐较快。消费、投资、出口的“三驾马车”结构趋于平衡。上述这些结构变化与发达经济体走过的历史轨迹高度吻合，表明中国仍在迈向更高收入水平的正常轨道上。差距主要表现在第二、三产业就业占比偏低；政府服务占比偏低；城市化率偏低等。这些对比说明中国在产业发展、公共服务和城市化之间存在不平衡，后两者落后于前者并形成了经济发展短板，弥补这些短板需要推动“从发展到服务”的政府职能转型。

关键词：结构转型 跨国比较 补短板

China’sEconomic Restructuring: Development and Gap

ZhangBin and Zou Jingxian

This article reviews the progress of China’s economic transformation and compares it with high-income economies at a similar stage of development. China's economic activity has been shifting from manufacturing to services since 2010–2012. After this peak of industrialization, the upgrading of its manufacturing has accelerated, as reflected by inputs, production and products; human–capitalintensive services has grown at a fast pace in the post-industrialization era, and consumption, investment and exports have become more balanced. The trajectory of those structural changes is consistent with that of high-income economies at a similar stage of development, indicating that China is on track towards a higher-income development. The gap mainly lies in the lower ratio of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries; the share of government services as a percentage of GDP and the urbanization rate are also quite low, indicating that the development of the country’s industrial development, public service and urbanization is unbalanced. To close the gap, government functions should shift from being development-oriented to service-oriented.

改革开放四十年，中国为什么发展得更快？ 宋泓

改革开放四十年，与建国初期的二十九年相比、与同时期的其他发展中国家相比，为什么中国的发展更快呢？本文的研究发现，最根本的原因有两个：其一，是中国摒弃了文化大革命时期的左倾主义发展道路，并大胆探索了一条共产党领导下的共同富裕之路；其二，是积极对外开放，全面与国际接轨，深入融合到世界经济之中。

关键词：改革开放 四十年 左倾主义发展道路 伟大的探索

China’s Faster Development in the Last 40 Years: An Explanation

SongHong

In the last 40 years of economic reform and opening-up, China’s economic growth has been faster than its expansion in the 29 years after the founding of the people’s republic and development of other developing countries in the same period. Why has that happened? This article finds that there are two fundamental reasons: First, China has abandoned the leftist development road and boldly explored a road of seeking common prosperity under the leadership of the Communist Party of China; second, it has actively opened up to the outsideworld and deeply integrated into the world economy.

改革开放四十年来中国国际收支的演变历程、发展趋势与政策涵义

张明

从2012年起，中国的国际收支双顺差格局已经逐渐消失。在未来，随着经常账户内部货物贸易顺差继续下降以及服务贸易逆差继续上升、人口老龄化以及高杠杆导致国内储蓄投资缺口收窄甚至倒挂，中国的经常账户可能呈现出短期顺逆差交替、中期转为持续逆差的格局；随着中国产业结构的升级转型、金融市场的双向开放以及资本管制程度的下降，中国的非储备性质金融账户可能呈现出余额变动不居的特点；随着人民币汇率市场化程度的提高、经常账户余额最终由正转负、“一带一路”倡议的推进以及藏汇于民格局的形成，中国的外汇储备存量中期内有望逐渐下降。中国国际收支格局变化导致的政策涵义至少包括：第一，无论是人民币汇率的波动性，还是中国国内资产价格的波动性，在未来均会显著增强；第二，中国央行的货币政策操作框架将会发生深刻改变；第三，各种资金频繁的大进大出将会增加中国金融体系面临的内外部冲击；第四，中国投资者对美国国债的投资需求将会发生趋势性下降，中期内美国国债市场存在显著调整的风险。

关键词：改革开放四十周年 国际收支 国际投资头寸 演变 政策涵义

China’s Balance of Payments in the Past Four Decades: Evolution, Future Trajectories and Policy Implications

Zhang Ming

The twin surpluses in China’s balance of payments have gradually vanished since 2012. Asthe result of the declining goods trade surplus, the increasing services trade deficit, the shrinking domestic savings-investment gap caused by populationaging and the rising household leverage in the coming years, China’s current account may suffer from frequent deficits in the short term and persistent deficits in the mid-term. Along with the upgrading of China’s industry structure, the two-way opening up of its financial markets and loosening capital regulation, China’s non-reserve financial account may swing between surplus and deficit. China’s foreign exchange reserve may decline gradually as the liberalization of renminbi exchange rate regime improves, the current account surplus declines and becomes negative, the Belt and Road Initiative iscarried out, and foreign exchange holdings by enterprises and households increase. The evolution of China’s balance of payments has the following policy implications: First, the volatilities of both renminbi exchange rate and domestic asset prices would significantly intensify; second, the operational framework of China's monetary policy would change dramatically; third, the increasing two-way capital flows would amplify the internal and externalimpacts on China's financial system; last but not least, the US’ treasury bondmarket would face heavy pressure of volatility in the mid-term as a result ofthe shrinking demand from Chinese investors.

美元体系的金融逻辑与权力 ——中美贸易争端的货币金融背景及其思考

李晓

中美贸易争端的爆发不仅暴露出中国的美国认知存在着一系列问题，也使人思考特朗普恣意妄为的“美国优先”行为的深层次背景。本文认为，美国现阶段与他国的争端尤其是与中国的贸易争端有着强大的金融和货币优势支撑。长期以来“美国衰落论”仅热衷于关注美国衰落的话题本身，而对其经济结构变化以及由此产生的政治、经济影响尤其是美国核心利益的变化熟视无睹。1970年代以来美国经济结构的日益金融化产生了两个重要的国际影响：一是美元体系的形成与强化，二是以美国科技创新与制造业产业转移为代表的全球产业链的形成与发展。这是特朗普发动贸易保护主义行动的重要背景或者保障。其中，美元体系的形成与发展是20世纪世界经济最为核心的变化，使得美国构建了一个与以往霸权国家全然不同的世界控制体系，对世界的剥削与控制不仅更加隐秘，重要的是还更改了人类长久以来的金融逻辑，即将“债权人逻辑”更改为“债务人逻辑”。此乃当今美国所有国际经济行为的重要基础。“债务人逻辑”的实施主要是依靠美元体系来实现的，该体系的核心利益就在于，维护一个允许它可以坚守“债务人逻辑”、大量举债而不受其他任何国家约束的国际货币秩序。本文在探讨美元体系的金融逻辑与运行机制的基础上，分析了其本质与全球性权力，并提出了中国应对中美贸易争端与未来发展的总体战略。

关键词：美元体系 债权人逻辑 债务人逻辑 金融权力

Financial Rationale and Power of the Dollar System: Monetary and Financial Background of the Sino-US Trade Disputes

Li Xiao

The Sino-UStrade disputes not only expose our misunderstanding of the United States, but prompt us to think about the deep-level background of the Trump administration’s willful "America First" behavior. This article argues that the current disputes between the United States and the rest of the world, especially the trade disputes with China, are built on the country’s strong financial and monetary advantages. For a long time, the theory of "America's decline" has only focused on the topic of the decline itself and turned a blind eye to the changes in its economic structure and the resulting political and economic implications, especially the changes in the core interests of the United States. The US’ economic structure has been increasingly finance-oriented since the 1970s, which has led to two important results: One is the formation and strengthening of the US dollar system; the other is the formation of the global industrial chain featuring the US’ technological innovation and its transfer of its manufacturing capacities to other countries. It is an important background or guarantee for Trump's launch of trade protectionist actions. The formation and development of the US dollar system is the most crucial change of the world economy in the 20th century. It allows the United States to build a world control system that is totally different from the hegemonic countries in the past. Its exploitation and control of the world has become more secretive; more importantly, it has changed the long-standing financial rules of mankind, i.e., the creditor-centered rule has been changed into the debtor-centered rule. Such achange is an important foundation for all its economic behaviors in today's international community. The implementation of debtor-centered rule is mainly backed by the US dollar system. The core interest of the system lies in maintenance of an international monetary order that allows the US to take advantage of the debtor-centered rule to borrow heavily without being restrained by any othercountry. Based on the discussion of the financial rationale and operational mechanism of the US dollar system, this article analyzes the nature of the system and its global strength, before putting forward China’s overall strategy for dealing with the Sino-US trade disputes and its future development.

全球性经济危机与全球货币体系调整：经验证据与理论框架

张广斌 黄海洲 张绍宗

2008年爆发的全球金融危机已过去十年，但全球经济仍未走出危机的阴影。历史地看，每一次全球性经济危机的爆发都处于全球货币体系调整的关键时期，并且，全球货币体系未能适时调整正是危机爆发的重要原因，这引发了对全球货币体系调整与全球性经济危机之间关系的思考。从理论上来分析，单一主权货币充当国际本位货币的前提条件，是该货币发行的私有属性能够支撑其作为国际本位货币的公共属性，而支撑力的发挥，依赖于这一主权国家的经济体量足够大。然而，现实却是随着外部经济的趋同性增长，美国在全球经济中的占比趋于下降，全球货币体系平稳运行的理论张力会周期性崩断，其结果很可能是全球性经济危机的周期性爆发。

关键词：全球性经济危机 全球货币体系 国际本位货币

GlobalEconomic Crisis and Monetary System Adjustment: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Framework

Zhang Guangbin, Huang Haizhou and Zhang Shaozong

The world economy is yet to step out of the fall outs of the global financial crisisten years after its eruption in 2008. Historically, every global economic crisis occurred in a critical period of the global monetary system restructuring. Moreover, failure of the global monetary system to get adjustedin accordance with changing times was an important factor behind the outbreak of the global economic crisis, which has prompted us to explore the relationship between global monetary system adjustment and global economic crisis.Theoretically, the premise that a single sovereign currency acts as an international standard currency is that the private attribute of its currency issuance can support its public attribute as an international standard currencyand whether the premise holds depends on the size of the economy of the sovereign state. However, the reality is that with the convergence of external economic growth, the United States has had a declining share in the global economy, which leads to the cyclical breakdown of the theoretical tension that sustains the global monetary system. The result is the cyclical outbreak of global economic crisis.

美国的全球化陷阱、贸易争端诉求与中国的战略应对 潘英丽 周兆平

全面扼制中国已成为美国的对华新国策，中美贸易战只是一个开始。原因在于美国已陷入全球化陷阱，内部结构矛盾的激化加深了系统的脆弱性和美国政府对中国涉外战略的敏感性。中国未来5年转型的关键时期也许是中美经济关系最复杂、摩擦最多的阶段。了解中美贸易争端的美方战略诉求以及中国自身改革和转型的客观需要，中国决策者们就可保持战略定力，在战术上与之“周旋”，并在战略上加大力度和速度推进改革促进“经济转型”。

关键词：全球化陷阱 中美贸易争端 战略转型

GlobalizationTrap of the US, Trade Disputes and China’s Strategic Response

Pan Yingli and Zhou Zhaoping

It has become a new national policy of the United States to comprehensively contain China’s development and the China-US trade disputes are but only the beginning of their rivalry because the United States has fallen into the trap of globalization and its intensifying internal structural conflicts have worsen edits systematic fragility and made it more responsive to China’s external policies. The crucial period of China’s transformation in the upcoming five years is perhaps also the most complex period for the China-US economic relations since there may appear the most frictions between the two powers during that period. China needs to well understand the strategic demands of the United States in the ongoing trade disputes and how it can well carry out reform and transformation so that Chinese policymakers can maintain their strategic focus, deal with the US in a more flexible manner and make more efforts to speed up reform and economic transformation.

美国贸易政策制定中的观念、偏好与策略选择夏敏

在研究美国贸易政策的既有文献中，大多数学者都认为经济利益是决定美国贸易政策走向的主要因素。本文认为，观念变迁应该成为研究当前美国贸易政策调整的关键变量，因为特朗普政府的贸易政策反映出与以往政策的根本性变化。世界观、原则化信念以及因果观念这三个层次的观念通过影响美国公众的贸易偏好和决策者的策略选择在美国贸易政策制定中发挥了重要的作用。本研究对于理解中美当前贸易战的根源有着积极的意义。缓解当前中美经济对抗，仅仅有经济上针锋相对的反制措施是不够的，因为观念的变迁将会严重影响经济措施的效果。如何定位中国在现存世界体系中的地位，如何消解其他国家对于中国经济崛起的困惑与误解，将关系到中国未来与其他国家的经济关系。

关键词：美国 贸易政策 观念 偏好 策略选择

Ideas, Preference and Strategic Choice in US’ Trade Policymaking

Xia Min

Most scholars believe that economic interests are the main factor influencing acountry’s trade policymaking. However, this article argues that the evolution of ideas should be a key variable in studying the current trade policy adjustments of the United States as the Donald Trump administration’s tradepolicy reflects a marked departure from policy stances of his predecessors. Three levels of ideas, including world view, principle-based belief and causality, play an important role in the formulation of US’ trade policy by influencing the trade preferences of the US public and the strategic choices of its policymakers. This article helps understand the root causes of the current trade war between China and the United States. To alleviate the ongoing Sino-US economic confrontation, it is inadequate for China to take economic counter-measures since the evolution of ideas will undermine the effectiveness of those economic measures. How to position itself in the current world systemand how to disperse other countries’ confusion about and misunderstanding of its economic rise will be crucial for China’s future economic relations with the rest of the world.

探寻通往人类命运共同体的全球化之路 ——全球治理的政治经济学思考

周宇

全球化带来了难以想象的经济繁荣，但也造成了日益严重的社会不平等。面对甚嚣尘上的逆全球化思潮，有必要从政治经济学的视角思考全球治理问题，因为发展关乎经济，发展成果分配则关乎政治。本文梳理了逆全球化的表现，指出全球化使国与国之间的贫富差距得到大幅改善，但一国之内的贫富差距问题却日益突出。经济分化引发政治极化，当各国民粹主义政客将经济问题政治化，把自身问题归咎于他国，便有了国际层面的逆全球化乱象。本文从经济、政治制度和国际秩序等方面分析了逆全球化的成因，指出要弥合技术变革造成的经济分化，解决制度供给与改革需求的错配，摆脱全球经济治理的“两难悖论”，即全球化的世界经济与以民族国家为基础的治理体系之间的矛盾，需要对市场与政府的边界进行再定位，对自由民主制进行再思考，以人类命运共同体为出发点对全球治理路径进行再探索，让全球化再出发。

关键词：全球化 逆全球化 全球治理 人类命运共同体 一带一路

In Search of a New Paradigm of Globalization toward a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind — Observations of Global Governance from the Perspective of Political Economy

ZhouYu

Globalization has brought about unprecedented prosperity, but it has also resulted in growing inequality. In the face of the rising trend against globalization, it is necessary to approach global governance from the perspective of political economy, as development is about economics, but distribution is about politics. By tracing the evolution of the anti-globalization trend, this article argues that while globalization has greatly narrowed the wealth gap among countries, the wealth gap within countries has kept widening. Economic divide has led to political polarization. When populist politicians in some countries opt to politicize economic problems and shift the blame for domestic problems to foreign countries as a political expediency, we see a collective wave against globalization at the international level. The article also analyzes the root causes of anti-globalization. They include the widening of economic divide caused by technological progress, the mismatch between the supply of institutions and the demand for reform, and the dilemma of global economic governance, namely, the conflict between the borderless world economy and the global governance system drawn along the lines of national boundaries. To solve those problems, we need to find a new paradigm of globalization that is more inclusive. To that end, we must recalibrate the role of the market and the government in the economy, reconsider the universal applicability of liberal democracy, and make efforts to build a community with a shared future for mankind to improve global governance.

世界经济或将进入多趋势并存的时代：表征、成因与未来——兼论特朗普的“三零贸易秩序” 王跃生

近年随着特朗普执政以来推行单边主义、保护主义，原有世界经济结构与多边贸易体系不断趋于瓦解，全球经济与贸易秩序进入混乱无序状态。本文认为，基于世界经济发展的客观基础和经济全球化大趋势，孤立主义与保护主义再度兴起、双边主义与区域主义渐成主流、新型全球化的不断推进，这三种趋势并存将成为世界经济与国际贸易领域的长期状态。而特朗普所主张所谓“公平、对等”的“三零贸易秩序”及以此为依规的新的单一美国秩序并不具有现实性。

关键词：世界经济 国际贸易 保护主义 经济全球化 三零贸易秩序

Trump’s “Triple-Zero” Trade Order and Future Trends of World Economy: Characteristics, Causes and Prospects

Wang Yuesheng

The Donald Trump administration of the US has been implementing its unilateral andprotectionist policies in the past two years, which has continually underminedthe existing global economic structure and multilateral trade system. The world economy and global trade order have stepped into a state of chaos. This article argues that based on the actually conditions of world economic development and the fundamental trend of economic globalization, isolationism and protectionism, bilateralism and regionalism, and a new type of globalization will coexist in the long run to affect the world economy and international trade. The so-called fair and reciprocal “triple-zero” trade order advocated byTrump and the resulting new single American order will prove infeasible.

拉美民众主义的悖论：根源与后果袁东振

拉美民众主义历经百年而不衰，其产生与发展具有深刻的经济、政治、社会和思想文化根源。在拉美地区，民众主义与民族主义共生，经济民众主义与政治民众主义相互交织，左翼民众主义与右翼民众主义并存。拉美民众主义与欧美民粹主义缺乏承继性和关联性，也与其他地区民粹主义不完全相同。民众主义在拉美特殊历史条件下具有一定进步作用和积极意义。然而拉美民众主义在理论和实践上有严重缺陷，也造成一系列消极后果，形成诸多悖论。拉美民众主义试图以国家干预促进经济发展，最终却造成经济崩溃；试图通过反现存体制来推进民主政治，却进一步加剧体制的脆弱性；试图推进社会公平，最终却加剧社会不满。拉美的经验表明，要消除民众主义的消极后果，必先消除其产生和发展的经济、政治、社会和思想文化根源。

关键词：民众主义 民族主义 左翼与右翼 拉丁美洲

The Paradox of Populism in Latin America: Origin and Consequences

Yuan Dongzhen

Populismin Latin American countries has a history of more than one hundred years, starting from late 19th century, and its inauguration and development are deeply rooted in the local economic, political, social, ideological and cultural conditions. In Latin America, populism has a deep symbiosis with nationalism, economic populism and political populism are intertwined, while left-wing populism and right-wing populism coexist. Populism in Latin America does not come from or have linkups with populism in North America and Europe; it is also different from populism in other regions. Given the special social conditions in Latin America, populism has been, in a sense, a positive force in the region; however, given its many serious flaws both in theory and practice, populism has caused a series of serious negative consequences and becomes quite paradoxical. The populists in Latin American countries have attempted to promote economic development through state intervention, promote democracy through measures against established systems, and enhance social equity through distributive public policy. However, in contrast to their original purposes, those measures have caused economic collapse, exacerbated the fragility of democratic system and intensified social dissatisfaction. The experiences of those Latin American countries show that, in order to avoid the negativecon sequences of populism, it is necessary to eliminate the economic, political, social, ideological and cultural root causes of populism.

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