2018年7月12日，北約峰會正式召開，美國在峰會前對歐盟軟硬兼施，想法設法力圖歐洲態度軟化。日前北約前秘書長，美國前駐俄羅斯大使Alexander Vershbow發表署名文章《誰是自由世界的領袖？》。現中英雙語全文編譯僅供參考。
觀點不代表本機構立場
作者：Alexander Vershbow
編譯：學術plus
原載：http://thehill.com/ 2018.7.1
The NATO summit in Brussels is less than two weeks away, and apprehension is growing among America’s European allies. There is no shortage of good “deliverables” in the pipeline for the July 11 meeting. But after the bitter recriminations at the G-7 summit in Canada, allies are wondering whether they will be in for nothing more than a tongue lashing by President Trump over insufficient defense spending, further inflaming transatlantic divisions over trade, the Iran deal, and other issues.
布魯塞爾召開在即，美國的歐洲盟友也越來越擔憂。正在籌備中的7月11日會議，並不缺少良好的“預期成果”。但在加拿大七國集團(g7)峰會上的激烈指責之後，盟友們都在想，他們在會上是否只會就特朗普總統在國防開支不足的問題上大費口舌，並進一步加劇大西洋兩岸在貿易、伊朗協議和其他問題上的分歧。
The apprehension is even greater now that Trump will hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki immediately after the NATO summit. Allies do not doubt the importance of dialogue with Moscow, yet worry that the Trump will use the same playbook with Putin as he used in Singapore with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un by cozying up to another strongman, staying silent on values, and offering one-sided concessions that could deal another blow to allied unity.
更令人擔憂的是，在北約峰會後，特朗普將立即在赫爾辛基與俄羅斯總統普京舉行峰會。同盟國並不懷疑與莫斯科對話的重要性，卻擔心特朗普與普京政治上達成共識，就像他在新加坡與金正恩那樣，與另一位強人合作，在價值觀上保持沉默，並對俄做出可能令聯盟團結造成另一次打擊的讓步。
Gifts to Putin could include a unilateral curtailment of United States and NATO “war games” in Europe by accepting Putin’s false claims that these defensive exercises are “provocative” as he did with Kim in Singapore. Trump could lift some of the punitive steps taken to punish Russia for its interference in the U.S. elections, such as the closure of the Russia espionage compounds on Maryland’s eastern shore.
給普京的禮物可能包括，單方面削減美國和北約在歐洲的軍事演習，接受普京的錯誤觀點，即這些防禦性行為具有“挑釁性”，就像他在新加坡對金正日所做的那樣。特朗普可能會採取一些懲罰措施來懲罰俄羅斯干涉美國大選，例如阻斷俄羅斯在馬里蘭州東岸的間諜機構。
Russian pundits are predicting that Trump will effectively accept the annexation of Crimea in return for vague promises by Putin to curb Iranian influence in Syria. This would undermine commitments that Crimea remains part of Ukraine. By acquiescing to Russia’s aggression, Trump would undermine one of the main pillars of the international order that the United States created after World War II. Although Congress would likely refuse to lift sanctions on Russia, acceptance that “Crimea is Russia” would be seen as betrayal of America’s friends and principles. Tactical unpredictability can be useful, but strategic unreliability is self-defeating.
俄羅斯專家預測，特朗普將實際上接受吞併克里米亞，以換取普京對遏制伊朗在敘利亞影響力的含糊承諾。這將破壞克里米亞仍是烏克蘭一部分的承諾。通過默許俄羅斯的侵略，特朗普將破壞美國在二戰後建立的國際秩序的主要支柱之一。儘管國會很可能拒絕解除對俄羅斯的制裁，但承認“克里米亞是俄羅斯”將被視為背叛美國的朋友和原則。戰術上的不可預測性是有用的，但戰略上的不可預測性則會弄巧成拙。
A year ago, Europeans, as well as most Americans, would have never thought that these nightmare scenarios could come to pass on the world stage. Indeed, in Warsaw last July, Trump conveyed a much more positive vision for the Atlantic alliance. His speech was addressed to the people of Poland, but his message was a powerful expression of American leadership and a reaffirmation of Western values that resonated across all of the countries of NATO and the European Union.
一年前，歐洲人以及大多數美國人從未想過這些噩夢般的情景會在世界舞臺上傳播開來。事實上在去年7月的華沙，特朗普為大西洋聯盟提出了一個更加積極的願景。儘管他是對著針對波蘭人說的，但他的講話是對美國領導力的有力表達，也是對西方價值觀的重申，這些價值觀引起了北約和歐盟所有國家的共鳴。
In Warsaw, Trump unequivocally reaffirmed Article V, the commitment by every NATO member to come to the defense of any ally under armed attack. He declared that U.S. policy in Europe went beyond self-defense. The United States was determined to work with its democratic allies to preserve the West and to protect our security and our way of life in the face of enemies that seek to “test our will, undermine our confidence, and challenge our interests.” He underscored in unequivocal terms the importance of allies to U.S. security when he said, “There is nothing like this community of nations. The world has never known anything like it. We must have the desire and the courage to preserve it in the face of those who would subvert and destroy it.”
在華沙，特朗普毫不含糊地重申了第五條的內容，即每一個北約成員國都承諾保衛任何受到武裝襲擊的盟友。他宣稱美國在歐洲的政策超越了自衛。面對那些試圖“考驗我們的意志、削弱我們的信心、挑戰我們的利益”的敵人，美國決心與它的民主盟友一道保護西方，保護我們的安全和生活方式。他毫不含糊地強調了盟友對美國安全的重要性。“世界上沒有任何東西能比得上這個國際大家庭。世界上從未有過這樣的事情。我們必須有意願和勇氣，在那些顛覆和毀滅它的人面前維護它。”
Does Trump still stand by those words? Will he go to the NATO summit as the leader and defender of the West and of the free world as he did in Warsaw? Or will he continue to castigate America’s allies and reinforce the impression he intends to abdicate U.S. leadership in favor of closer ties with an authoritarian Russia? I hope he chooses the first course. In a turbulent world, and facing a revisionist Russia and China, we need a strong NATO more than ever. The summit should be the occasion for Trump to reunify the alliance and chart its course for the future.
特朗普是否仍然支持這些話？他會像在華沙一樣作為西方和自由世界的領導者和捍衛者參加北約峰會嗎？或者他是否會繼續抨擊美國的盟友，並強化他打算放棄美國領導人的印象，支持與專制俄羅斯建立更緊密的聯繫？我希望他選擇前者。在動盪的世界中，面對修正主義的俄羅斯和中國，我們比以往任何時候都需要強大的北約。峰會應該是特朗普重新統一聯盟併為未來制定路線的時機。
Yes, allies who are not on track to fulfill their pledge to increase defense spending to 2 percent of gross domestic product should be criticized, but this should not be the sole focus in Brussels. Instead, Trump should focus on galvanizing the allies to invest in the capabilities and new technologies that NATO will need if its defense and deterrence are to remain credible in a world of cyberwarfare and artificial intelligence.
那些沒有履行承諾將國防開支增加到國內生產總值(gdp)的2%的盟友的確應該受到批評，但這不應該是布魯塞爾的唯一焦點。相反，特朗普應該把重點放在激勵盟國投資於北約所需的能力和新技術上，如果北約要在網絡戰和人工智能的世界中保持其防禦和威懾的可信度，北約將需要這些能力和新技術。
Trump should press the allies to increase their commitments of forces to NATO’s counterterrorism and stability missions in Afghanistan and other parts of the Middle East. He should lay out his plans for his meeting with Putin and seek advice from allies, since the best way to engage with Putin is from a position of strength, and that comes with a unified alliance.
特朗普應該敦促盟國增加對北約在阿富汗和中東其他地區的反恐和穩定任務的部隊承諾。他應該闡明與普京會面的計劃，並從盟友那裡尋求建議，因為與普京接觸的最佳方式是基於強有力的、統一的西方聯盟。
A divisive NATO summit, on the other hand, and the growing estrangement of the United States from Europe that would result, would be a giveaway to Putin. His Russia seeks to divide the West, undermine NATO, and discredit the values of democracy, individual liberty, and rule of law, on which the alliance was founded. A NATO in decline helps Putin to continue his hybrid war on the West.
另一方面，分裂的北約峰會，以及由此導致的美國與歐洲日益疏遠，將是對普京的饋贈。他的俄羅斯試圖分裂西方，破壞北約，破壞民主、個人自由和法治的價值觀，而這正是聯盟建立的基礎。北約的衰落幫助普京繼續他在西方的混合戰爭。
President Trump loves to surprise. Let us hope that he can swing in a positive direction at NATO, pivot off a successful summit to press Putin to change his aggressive course, and claim vindication over his critics.
特朗普總統喜歡驚喜。我們希望，他能在北約(NATO)朝著積極的方向前進，在一次成功的峰會上轉向，迫使普京改變其咄咄逼人的路線，並向他的批評者證明自己。
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