本文转自：文学文化研究
The Coronavirus Pandemic
Will Forever Alter the World Order
The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.
By Henry A. Kissinger April 3,2020
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done. The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away. The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus's spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans, ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus's society¬ dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will— hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each. Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world's most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people. The world's democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.
新冠肆虐将永远改变世界秩序
新冠肺炎全球大流行下的超现实气氛让我不禁想起自己年轻时参加二战突出部战役的经历，当时我在第84步兵师。今天的情况和1944年末一样，有一种危险的征兆。这种危险不是针对任何特定的人，但带有惊人的随机性和毁灭性。我们当今的时代和那个遥远的年代相比有着很大区别。那时候，有种国家的终极目标在锤炼着美国的坚毅。如今，在一个分裂的国家，我们需要有效率、有远见的政府，才能克服规模和范围都前所未有的全球性障碍。而维持公众信任对于社会内部团结、社会间关系以及国际和平与稳定而言都至关重要。
国家的团结和繁荣建立在这样的信念之上：他们的体制能够预见灾难、控制影响并恢复稳定。等到新冠大流行结束时，许多国家的体制将被认为没能经受住考验。这种判断是否客观公正并不重要。因为现实就是，经历新冠疫情之后，世界将不复原貌。而纠缠于对过去的争论只会让我们更难去做该做的事。
新冠病毒正以我们前所未见的规模和残暴汹涌来袭。疫情正呈现指数级蔓延：美国的感染病例每五天就翻一番。截止撰稿之时，仍然没有治愈新冠肺炎的特效方法。医疗物资也不足以应付一波又一波的病例。重症监护病房已不堪重负。检测能力不足以确认病毒感染的范围与程度，更不用说阻断病毒传播。但距离疫苗成功研制，还有12到18个月。
美国政府在避免即刻爆发的大灾难方面做了扎实的工作。终极考验是能否控制住疫情蔓延、扭转局势，且疫情逆转的方式和规模能保持住公众对美国人自我管理能力的信心。无论这场抗击危机的战斗多么浩大、多么必要，都不应挤掉这个紧迫的任务：为过渡到新冠疫情后的新秩序建立一个平行机制。
各国领导人主要在国家层面处理这场危机，但这种病毒对社会的穿透力是不分国界的。虽然病毒对人类健康的侵袭是一时的——至少希望如此，但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会持续几代人。没有一个国家，包括美国在内，仅凭一国之力就能战胜病毒。应对眼下亟待解决的问题，最终必须同全球合作的愿景和方案相结合。如果我们不能双管齐下，那么在两个问题上都会面临最坏的结果。
如果借鉴马歇尔计划和曼哈顿计划的设计经验，美国必须在三个领域做出巨大努力。第一，增强全球对传染病的抵御能力。医学科学领域的成功，从脊髓灰质炎疫苗研制，到天花的根除，再到依托人工智能和统计技术的医学诊断不断涌现的奇迹，都让我们陷入了危险的自满情绪。我们需要开发控制传染病的新办法和新技术，以及足以覆盖大规模人口的疫苗。市、州和地区必须站在科学前沿奠定基础、协同规划并积极探索，时刻准备保护其民众免受流行病的侵害。
第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人从2008年金融危机中吸取了重大教训。当前的经济危机更为复杂：从蔓延速度和全球范围来看，新冠疫情引发的经济收缩是史上未见的。此外，采取必要的公共卫生措施，如保持社交距离、关闭学校和企业，也加剧了经济阵痛。我们还需要相关计划来减轻疫情或将对世界最脆弱人群造成的混乱影响。
第三，维护自由世界秩序的原则。现代政府创建的传奇始于由强大的统治者保护着的、被城墙围绕的城市。这些统治者，有的专制、有的仁慈，但都强大到足以保护民众免受外敌侵略。启蒙思想家重新构建了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需求：安全、秩序、经济福祉和正义。个体无法凭一己之力获得这些。然而在一个繁荣有赖于全球贸易和人员流动的时代，这场大流行促使人们重建高墙，引发了一场不合时宜的“怀旧”。
全世界的民主国家都需要捍卫和维持他们的启蒙价值观。如果全球从权力与合法性的平衡中退缩，将导致社会契约在国家层面和国际层面的瓦解。然而，合法性与权力的平衡是延续千年的问题，无法在抗击新冠疫情的努力中同步得到解决。无论是国内政治还是国际外交，各方都需要克制，应分清轻重缓急。
在突出部战役中幸存的我们，走向了一个日益繁荣和人类尊严得到提高的世界。今天，我们站在一个划时代的历史节点。各国领导人面临的历史性考验就是：应对危机，同时创建未来。一旦考验失败，世界将烈火烧身。