譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
10-Year TIPS Reopening Gets A Real Yield Of -0.966%, Lowest In History
By David Enna
Summary
摘要
The real yield of -0.966% was slightly higher than where this TIPS was trading on the secondary market just minutes before the auction's close.
本次招標發行的實際收益率招標結果為-0.966%，略高於發行結果公佈前數分鐘該券在二級市場上的成交水平
The inflation break-even rate settled in at 1.65%, which looks like a reasonable number. Inflation hawks should see this as a positive for this investment.
10年期通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率為1.65%，這個水平似乎比較靠譜，在通脹問題上持鷹派立場的人士應視之為利好
This TIPS auction could be considered "normal" by the strange standards of normality in 2020.
放在2020年這個特殊的年份裡面看，本次招標發行的結果應視為“正常”
The Treasury's $12 billion reopening of CUSIP 912828ZZ6, creating a 9-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security, auctioned Thursday with a real yield to maturity of -0.966%, the lowest yield for any auction of this term.
本次續發行的總額為120億美元、統一證券代碼為CUSIP 912828ZZ6、存續期限為9年零10個月的通脹保值國債的實際收益率週四招標的結果為-0.966%，為該期限通脹保值國債歷次招標結果的最低值。
Continuing a recent trend in TIPS auctions, the real yield ticked a bit higher than expected, possibly indicating weakish demand from investors. At 11 a.m., two hours before the auction's close, this TIPS was trading on the secondary market with a real yield of -1.00%, and even at 12:41 p.m., it was trading at -0.98%. So investors managed to snag a higher return albeit only slightly higher.
本次招標的結果承繼了通脹保值國債近期的招標結果走勢，實際收益率的招標結果略高於先前的預期值，這可能意味著投資需求不太旺盛。在美國東部時間11點即本次招標截止前2個小時的時候，二級市場上該券的實際收益率為-1.0%，甚至到了12:41仍為-0.98%，因此投資者想方設法把收益率的招標水平弄得高哪怕一點點以獲得一點收益。
A TIPS is an investment that pays a coupon rate well below that of other Treasury investments of the same term. But with a TIPS, the principal balance adjusts each month (usually up, but sometimes down) to match the current U.S. inflation rate. So, the "real yield to maturity" of a TIPS indicates how much an investor will earn above (or below) inflation.
通脹保值國債支付給投資者的票息遠低於同期限的其他類型的美國國債。但是通脹保值國債每個月都會根據美國的通脹增速對債券本金進行調整，通常是上調，但也有下調的時候。因此，通脹保值國債的 “到期實際收益率”指的是投資者所獲得的高於通脹率或低於通脹率的淨收益。
In this case, CUSIP 912828ZZ6 already carries a coupon rate of 0.125%, based on the originating auction on July 23, which set the previous all-time low-yield for this term, at -0.93%. Investors at today's auction had to pay a huge premium for that 0.125% coupon rate, with the adjusted auction price coming in at about $112.39 for about $101.40 of principal, after accrued inflation is added in.
根據7月23日首次發行的結果，這隻統一證券代碼為CUSIP 912828ZZ6的通脹保值國債票息為0.125%，首次招標的實際收益率水平結果-0.93%也創下當時的最低記錄。在本次招標中中標的投資者必須付出相當高的溢價才能拿到0.125%的票息收益，該券的面值經過通脹率調整後為101.40美元，而招標買入價約為112.39美元。
A "negative real yield" does not mean that investors will get a negative return. It means that investors at today's auction are willing to accept a return that will lag official U.S. inflation by 0.966% over the next 10 years. That negative real yield reflects the reality of nominal Treasury yields - the 10-year Treasury note is yielding 0.68%, also likely to lag future inflation.
“實際收益率為負值”並不意味著投資者的投資收益為負值，而是說本次中標的投資者願意在未來十年裡接受每年比通脹增速低0.966%的收益率。實際收益率為負值反映出普通美國國債所面臨的一個現實，即當前10年期普通美國國債0.68%的收益率水平也有可能低於未來的通脹增速。
Real yields have declined sharply since the beginning of 2020, primarily caused by the Federal Reserve's bond-buying quantitative easing program, which was launched in mid-March amid market turmoil. The Fed has said it will hold short-term interest rates near zero, possibly through 2023, and has demonstrated willingness to hold nominal 10-year Treasury yields in a range around 0.70%. A negative real yield may or may not stimulate the U.S. economy, but it definitely supports stock prices, because low yields drive investors out of safe investments.
2020年年初以來實際收益率的水平經歷了大幅下行，主要是受美聯儲在3月中旬市場混亂期間推出的量化寬鬆購債計劃的影響。聯儲曾說過有可能一直到2023年以前都把短期利率的水平維持在接近零的位置上，並表示有意將10年美國國債的收益率水平控制在0.7%附近。負的實際收益率是否會刺激美國經濟成長尚未可知，但肯定會對股價起到支撐作用，因為收益率水平如此之低會驅使投資者不再看重投資的安全性。
Here is the year-to-date trend in the 10-year real yield, showing the brief spike in mid-March amid turmoil in the stock and bond markets. The Fed began its bond-buying program on March 23, immediately driving real yields lower:
以下是10年期美國通脹保值國債的實際收益率年初以來的走勢，可見在三月中旬美國股市和債券市場陷入混亂的時候來了一次短暫的衝高。在聯儲於3月23日開啟購債計劃後，實際收益率的水平立即因此下行：
Inflation break-even rate
通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率
With a nominal 10-year Treasury note trading at 0.68% at 1 p.m., this TIPS gets an inflation break-even rate of 1.65%, a reasonable number. Inflation over the last 10 years, ending in August, has averaged 1.8%. This number means that if inflation averages more than 1.65% over the next 10 years, this TIPS will outperform a nominal Treasury of the same term.
在美國東部時間下午1點的時候，10年期普通美國國債的收益率水平為0.68%，由此推算，這隻10年期通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率為1.65%，該數值比較靠譜。在截止到8月底的過去十年裡，美國通脹增速的均值為1.8%，這意味著如果未來十年美國通脹增速的均值超過1.65%，那麼這隻10年期通脹保值國債的回報率將超過同期限的普通美國國債。
Remember, the Federal Reserve has a stated policy to drive inflation higher than 2.0%, possibly much higher, and let it continue there without any monetary tightening. If the Fed is successful, this TIPS could be a stellar investment, even with a real yield deeply negative to inflation. But quantitative easing has failed to spur inflation over the last 10 years.
請注意，聯儲公開宣稱要把通脹率拉昇到2.0%以上，甚至更高，並默許通脹率在高位盤旋一段時間而不採取貨幣緊縮手段。如果聯儲的設想果真得以實現，那麼這隻10年期通脹保值國債就想成為一筆成功的投資，即使其實際收益率的水平相對於通脹增速來講深入負值區間，但是量化寬鬆在過去十年裡都未能成功地推升美國的通脹增速。
Here is the year-to-date trend in the 10-year inflation break-even rate, with the deep dive in March probably more related to market turmoil than to actual inflation expectations:
以下是10年期美國通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率年初至今的走勢，三月份的大幅下挫可能更多地與市場恐慌有關，體現的並非是市場對通脹走勢的真實預期：
It is significant, though, that the inflation breakeven rate didn't continue to expand higher with this auction. At the originating auction, on July 23, it came in at 1.52%, and had dipped as low as 0.43% in a tumultuous 10-year TIPS reopening on March 19. Is it possible that inflation break-evens are beginning to stabilize? If that is true, TIPS should begin tracking more closely with nominal Treasurys.
儘管在本次招標發行中通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率沒有進一步上升，但仍處於比較高的水平上。在7月23日的首次招標中，10年期通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率為1.52%，而在此之前的3月19日所處的市場動盪期間舉行的再發行中10年期通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率曾低至0.43%。通脹保值國債的臨界通脹率有可能就此開始穩定下來嗎？如果情況果真如此，通脹保值國債的回報率走勢應會更加緊密地貼近普通美國國債。
Reaction to the auction
Although the real yield rose slightly higher than expectations, the auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.65, which is considered a sign of a positive auction. At the July 23 originating auction, the bid-to-cover ratio was much lower, at 2.24.
儘管本次招標的實際收益率略高於先前的預期，但認購倍數達到2.65倍，算得上是投資者踴躍投標。在7月23日的首次招標中，認購倍數則是低得多的2.24倍。
The TIP ETF, which holds the full range of TIPS maturities, had been trading slightly lower all morning (indicating slightly higher yields) and it took a slight pop higher right after the auction's close at 1 p.m. It looks like this auction met expectations.
跟蹤美國通脹保值國債市場走勢的交易所交易基金TIP持有各種期限的美國通脹保值國債，其報價在整個上午均處於略低的位置上，即收益率水平略有升高，下午一點招標截止後其報價略有上升，說明本次招標的結果似乎市場預期相符。
At this point, as bad as TIPS real yields look, they appear to be realistically in line with nominal yields and future inflation expectations.
通脹保值國債的實際收益率的水平雖然看上去不理想，但貼切地反映了當前普通美國國債的收益率水平以及市場對未來通脹增速的預期。
CUSIP 912828ZZ6 will have one more reopening auction, on November 19, the last 10-year TIPS auction of 2020. Here are the results of 9- to 10-year TIPS auctions over the last two years, showing that since January 2019, 10-year real yields have fallen a remarkable 189 basis points:
這隻統一證券代碼為CUSIP 912828ZZ6的通脹保值國債還有一次續發行將於11月19日，這將是10年期限的通脹保值國債在2020年度的最後一次發行。以下是剩餘期限為9-10年期的通脹保值國債在過去兩年間即2019年1月份以來歷次招標的結果，可以看到10年期通脹保值國債的實際收益率在此期間大跌了189個基本點（2019年1月17日的招標結果0.919%-2020年9月17日的招標結果-0.966%=1.885%）。
