中文導讀：
有人說石油是世界經濟血管中流淌的血液。那麼世界經濟大出血，石油價格暴跌也就不足為奇了。
前段時間，沙特和俄羅斯開展的石油價格戰於4月12日終於落下帷幕。但也為近日石油跌至負價格埋下伏筆。
疫情之下，數以億計員工居家辦公，出行大幅減少，石油就失去了用武之地。但這可能並非反常現象，而是一種未來環保經濟的跡象。
（公眾號：趣讀經濟學人）
雙語閱讀：
1
OIL, IT HAS been said, is the blood coursing through the veins of the world economy. In 2020 the economy is bleeding red. As covid-19 keeps workers at home and planes on the ground, demand for oil has fallen faster and further than at any point in its history. Amplifying the shock, a furious row between Saudi Arabia and Russia set off a price war in early March. Last month oil prices fell by more than half, leaving a giant industry reeling.
有人說石油是世界經濟血管中流淌的血液。2020年世界經濟大出血。疫情之下，工人居家隔離、航班停飛，於是石油需求的下降速度和幅度都創歷史之最。沙特阿拉伯與俄羅斯在三月初展開的石油價格戰更是火上澆油。上個月，石油價格下跌超5成，偌大的一個行業岌岌可危。
bleeding red 財政赤字
reeling 搖晃的
2
On April 12th the world’s energy superpowers broke bread and reached a new deal to try to prop up prices. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, said they would slash production by 9.7m barrels a day from May to the end of June, a record, and restrain output for two years. In the 20th century Uncle Sam was keen to undermine OPEC, but in 2018 America became the biggest oil producer, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia. President Donald Trump’s re-election depends on the shale states of Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio. He argued for the pact and said the industry would recover “far faster” than expected.
4月12日，世界能源大國打破僵局，達成一項新協議以支撐油價。石油輸出國組織（歐佩克）及包含俄羅斯在內的盟友表示，從五月開始到六月結束，他們將歷史性地每日減產970萬桶油。20世紀，山姆大叔（美國）熱衷於與歐佩克作鬥爭以逐漸削弱其實力。但是，在2018年，美國超越沙特和俄羅斯成為了世界上最大的石油生產國。因為美國總統特朗普是否能連任取決於富含頁岩油的德克薩斯州、賓夕法尼亞州和俄亥俄州，所以他支持了這項協議並表示石油產業將會比預期恢復得更快。
broke bread 共進晚餐
prop up 支撐；支持
3
In fact private oil firms, state-controlled companies and countries that rely on energy exports should brace themselves for a long period of pain, and use the crisis to begin the restructuring that will have to take place if the planet is to deal with climate change.
事實上，私人石油公司、國有石油企業和依賴能源出口的國家應該要做好迎接長期痛苦的準備，並趁著這次危機開始進行重組，因為如果地球要應對氣候變化，那麼重組就是早晚的事。
4
This week’s grand bargain is unlikely to work. For a start the sums don’t add up. Global demand may fall by 29m barrels a day this month, three times the OPEC deal’s promised cuts. Private firms outside the alliance may reduce output, too, but by how much is uncertain. And no one knows when demand will pick up. Oil stockpiles are rising and storage capacity could be exhausted within weeks.
本週的大談判估計不會有什麼效果。首先，他們的數字算錯了。本月全球石油日需求量可能下降2900萬桶，是歐佩克減產承諾的三倍。雖然石油聯盟以外的私人企業也會減產，但具體減多少就不得而知了。而且沒有人能知道石油需求什麼時候才會反彈。石油儲備日漸上漲，幾周之內可能就沒地方存放石油了。
add up 講得過去；
not add up 數字有誤
pick up 好轉；反彈
5
The alliance is shaky. Russia, the world’s second-biggest producer, has worked with OPEC since 2016 but routinely ignored the terms of deals. It is unlikely that America will permanently join OPEC in creating a new energy order. The new pact involves assurances that output will fall in America but Texan frackers respond to price signals and the profit motive, not government quotas. The deal almost fell apart when Mexico refused Saudi Arabia’s terms, illustrating how one country can prompt an unravelling. And Saudi Arabia continues to offer deep discounts on crude bound for Asia, a sign of its eagerness to defend its powerful position in oil’s most important market.
石油聯盟搖搖欲墜。世界第二大石油生產國俄羅斯自2016年就跟歐佩克合作，但時不時的就會無視一些協議條款。美國也不太可能會一直跟歐佩克站統一戰線去建立一個新的能源秩序。新的條約規定美國減產石油，但德州的頁岩油公司只會看價格信號和利潤動機行事，而不是國家的配額。在墨西哥與沙特唱反調時，協議幾乎是已經落空了，這凸顯了一個國家是如何促使協議瓦解的。與此同時，沙特阿拉伯繼續大幅打折向亞洲出口原油，表明沙特迫切希望捍衛自己在這個石油最重要市場的強大地位。
profit motive利潤動機
6
A last reason for scepticism is that the covid-19 crisis could further dampen long-term oil demand. Hundreds of millions of people are living through an experiment with home-working, fewer flights and less urban pollution. This could help change public opinion about the desirability of a faster shift from an economy built on fossil fuels.
為什麼美國不太可能一直跟歐佩克站統一戰線？最後一個原因就是新冠疫情會長期抑制石油需求。數以億計的人民正在體驗居家辦公、航班減少、城市汙染降低的生活。或許疫情之後人們會發現，可以試著加快轉變經濟，不那麼依賴化石燃料。
desirability 期許；願望
7
Rather than stability, then, oil producers face volatile demand and production. Iran and Venezuela, already squeezed by American sanctions, will see more unrest. Countries with high costs and poor governance, such as Nigeria and Angola, facecapital flight and balance-of-payments crises. Last year bankruptcies among American oil producers jumped by 50%. In 2020 that figure will soar.
因此，等待著石油生產國的並不是一個穩定的戰線，而是不穩定的需求和產量。因美國製裁，伊朗和委內瑞拉已經在狹縫中求生存，這將會讓他們經歷更多的動盪。像尼日利亞和安哥拉等生活成本高還管理不善的國家還面臨著資本外逃和國際收支危機。去年，美國申請破產的石油生產商猛增了50%。在2020年，這數字還會飛漲。
squeezed by 受剝削
capital flight 資本外逃 （國內掙的錢，卻要借投資之名將資本轉移國外，前幾年的首富就有這種嫌疑，所以就受到了管控，資產一跌再跌）
8
Beyond this year a deeper adjustment awaits. Volatility will dampen investors’ appetite for new projects. Oil companies have already slashed capital spending by about 25% this year. Some pricey oil will be left underground for good. Shale’s frenetic growth will abate. Big oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, will have to cut public spending and diversify.
今年之後，石油行業需要做出更深層次的調整。不穩定性將會抑制投資者對新項目的興趣。今年，石油企業已經削減了約25%的資本開支。一些昂貴的石油將會永遠留在地底；頁岩氣的瘋狂增長將會減弱；包括沙特阿拉伯在內的大型石油出口國將不得不削減公共開支並實現業務多樣化。
abate 減輕
9
For years the oil industry has faced the possibility that demand might fall, as governments moved to limit climate change. That threatened to heap chaos on oil producers, as capital dried up and companies battled for their share of a dwindling market. A peak in demand may still be years away. But oil producers should see covid-19’s turmoil for what it is: not an aberration, but a sign of what is to come.
多年來，各國政府採取措施限制氣候變化，石油行業一直面臨需求下降的可能性。由於資本枯竭，同時石油企業需要在不斷萎縮的市場中爭奪自己的一席之地，這勢必會進一步擾亂石油生產。石油需求重返峰值可能還需要數年時間。但石油生產國應該認清新冠疫情帶來的動盪:這不是一種反常現象，而是未來的一個跡象。
heap on 加上；推上
heap praise on 對..大加讚賞
heap blame on 加罪於
what is to come 未來；將要發生的事
