原創：Jack
來源：經濟轉型研究
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很嚴重的衰退，但將迎來相當快的反彈——這是前美聯儲主席伯南克對當前形勢作出的判斷。
美國時間3月25日，伯南克（Ben Bernanke）在接受CNBC採訪時，回答了此次疫情影響及市場危機等問題。伯南克認為，對於美國而言，下個季度後將面臨非常嚴重但短暫的衰退，因為企業等都已停頓。
未來取決於疫情發展是否受控，以及企業能否及時獲得信貸支持。“但如果閉關停工對就業和企業未造成太大損害，那麼，未來也將迎來相當快的反彈。”
伯南克認為，現在和下個季度會看到嚇人的經濟數據，包括很高的失業率，但目前美國的狀況無論是與2008年的金融危機，還是1930年代的大蕭條（Great Recession）相比，相似性都不太大。
他稱，“比起1930年代的大蕭條，當前的危機更像是一場暴風雪或自然災害”。大蕭條源於人們的認知原因、貨幣政策和金融市場動盪混亂。那一次持續了12年。另一個不同是，美聯儲正在確保銀行的放貸。現在與當時比起來，相似之處可能是，人們會感受到市場的動盪不定和恐懼情緒的傳染，但現在不會出現上一次那樣的典型的通縮狀況。
與2008年的金融危機相比，伯南克認為，現在的情形差不多與那時相反。在那場危機中，是金融體系的問題感染到了整個經濟。而這次，是由疫情帶來的經濟問題正在感染銀行體系。
2008年是由於次級貸款引發了金融系統的崩潰，此次危機則是由於新冠病毒疫情導致企業、服務等一段時間停擺。他認為，當前的銀行體系較2008年危機時更健康。
伯南克強調，政策產生作用的提前是疫情能得到控制。如果不能優先解決好這場公共衛生危機，不能有效對付病毒及其傳染，那貨幣政策和財政政策都將難以發揮作用。
他堅信，這次不會達到大蕭條那樣的嚴重程度。
伯南克肯定了現任美聯儲主席鮑威爾和他的團隊“非常積極主動”採取的政策措施，認為這些信息被市場吸收後，經濟就會出現相當快的反彈。
但他也強調，當下的重點是保證醫院的收容量、醫療物資包括口罩、呼吸機的供應，這些都能縮短“閉關”（shutdown）的時間。在公共衛生問題得到徹底控制前，並不應該復工，從而避免疫情的反覆。
對於美聯儲近期出臺的一系列政策措施，伯南克提出，美聯儲可以從公開市場購買公司債券、MBS等，但對於中小企業的貸款將需要通過其他機構，通過一些金融中介來完成。他同時也強調，當下的貨幣政策作用可能並不大，因為“閉關”讓人們不會出門消費。但美聯儲降息、無限QE等政策可以減輕企業壓力，並幫助從業人員穩定工作與收入，這些都將加快疫情過後的經濟反彈。
對於美國是否將長期保持超低利率，伯南克表示，美國利率並不是“突然地下降”，全球的利率從1980年開始已經在逐步下降，美國的利率調整也符合這一趨勢。低利率並不一定會伴隨著循環性的經濟危機，日本長期維持零利率，並沒有出現這類危機。
他最後表示，美國的超低利率時期或將持續較長時間。
以下為CNBC相關報道
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sounded an optimistic tone on the longer-term state of the economy, predicting in a CNBC interview Wednesday that while the U.S. is facing an acute recession, it shouldn’t last.
“It is possible there’s going to be a very sharp, short, I hope short, recession in the next quarter because everything is shutting down of course,” he said on “Squawk Box.”
“If there’s not too much damage done to the workforce, to the businesses during the shutdown period, however long that may be, then we could see a fairly quick rebound.”
During the financial crisis that exploded in 2008, Bernanke guided the Fed through its efforts to save the economy. He was the first central bank chairman to pull its benchmark interest rate down to near zero, and the Bernanke Fed implemented a slew of programs that have been resurrected to deal with the current crisis.
While he guided the Fed through the financial crisis and accompanying Great Recession and is recognized authority on the Great Depression, he said the current situation bears only minor resemblance to those two periods.
“This is a very different animal from the Great Depression” which he said “came from human problems, monetary and financial shocks. This is has some of the same feel, some of the feel of panic, some of the feel of volatility that you’re talking about. It’s much closer to a major snowstorm or a natural disaster than a classic 1930′s-style depression.”
In fact, he said, the current situation is almost the opposite of the financial crisis, where problems in the banking system infected the broader economy. This time, issues in the broader economy brought on by the coronavirus are infecting the banks.
He stressed the important of getting the coronavirus itself under control so that policy can do its work.
“Nothing is going to work, the Fed is not going help, fiscal policy is not going to help if we don’t get the public health right, if we don’t solve the problem of the virus, of the infection, so making sure that the risk has declined sufficiently before put people back in the line of fire,” Bernanke said.
“So I think the public health is the most important one,” he added. “If we can get that straight, then we know how to get the economy working again. Monetary and fiscal policy can do their thing and we won’t have anything like the extended downturn we saw even, I don’t think, in the Great Recession, much less the Great Depression of the ’30s.”
Earlier Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressed similar sentiments about the economy, telling CNBC he expects a big short-term hit but a strong rebound.
He praised the work being done by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the current Fed.
The Powell Fed has pulled benchmark borrowing rates down to near-zero and implemented a slew of programs aimed at keeping liquidity flowing to the financial system and businesses.
“I think the Fed has been extremely proactive, and Jay Powell and his team have been working really hard and gotten ahead of this and shown they can set up a whole bunch of diverse programs that will help us keep the economy functioning during this shutdown period, so that when the all-clear is sounded, we will have a much better rebound than we otherwise would,” Bernanke said.
